Ugh, well it looks like after getting a lot of breaks last year, the baseball gods aren’t going to be as kind to us this year. Just as Cole Hamels, the key to our season, starts to look like himself, he gets blasted in the left arm by a Prince Fielder line drive. Probably not a long term injury, but indicative of the way the year has gone so far, where every hint of momentum has been squashed.
Player of the Series: Matt Stairs (2-2, 1 HR, broke up no-hitter)
Goat of the Series: Ryan Howard (0-10, 3 BB, 4 K)
The Good News
- It’s still April.
- My predictions aren’t as off as originally feared.
- No one can ask to renegotiate their contract.
- Up until he got smoked, Cole Hamels looked like the Hamels of old, throwing 90 and making people miss (6 K in 3.1 IP) with his change-up.
- Both Lidge and Madson looked good in their first outings following their blow-ups.
- Uhhh….thinking……thinking……
- I don’t mind if we suck, as long as the Mets suck worse (6-9, with truly awful starting pitching after Johan)
The Bad News
- Looks like the WS didn’t change one thing about the Phillies: they have to be the streakiest offensive team in baseball. After lighting up a lefty, Manny Parra, they make two mediocre righties (who we should be killing) look like Cy Young candidates. Looper threw the ball pretty well, I’ll give him that, but almost being no-hit by Dave Bush? Give me a break. I’m pretty sure if we faced a continuous rotation of Tim Redding, Kip Wells, Steve Trachsel, Braden Looper and any other righty with an 89 mph fastball and average breaking ball, we would go 0-162. Drives me crazy.
- 14 games in, still no true quality start (I don’t count 6 IP, 3 ER).
- Howard went back to some bad old habits these last couple series, with 8 K in 6 games.
- Jimmy Rollins could have been the LVP of the series, but is certainly the LVP of the season so far. After tearing up the WBC and Spring Training, he has a .206 OBP through 14 games. And 0 stolen base attempts. How’s this for an idea of how bad he’s doing: Matt Stairs has 9 total bases and 3 runs in 10 at-bats, Jimmy has 15 total bases and 5 runs in 59 at-bats. And he’s 2nd on the team in strike-outs. Just not seeing the ball right now.
Pre-Series Post: Phils vs. Crew in NLDS re-match
I felt a lot better going into our NLDS series against the Brewers than I do right now, and that was with CC Sabathia on their squad.
Here are the pitching match-ups for the series
Tuesday: Moyer vs. Manny Parra (0-2, 6.97 ERA)
Wednesday: Blanton vs. Braden Looper (1-0, 3.27 ERA)
Thursday: Hamels vs. Dave Bush (0-0, 5.40 ERA)
Three Questions for the Series
- How will Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson react to blowing their first games in a long, long time?
- Will the team react to Manuel calling some players out for being unprepared for the season?
- Can we win a game without having to mount a comeback?
Prediction
I just have a bad feeling about this series. We’ve been dragging out feet, having the worst staff ERA in the NL, and if it weren’t Utley, Ibanez and Howard, we’d be nowhere near 5-6. I think we lose 2 of 3 and suddenly traveling to Florida to play the unbeatable Marlins looks a lot more daunting.
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{ 27 comments… read them below or add one }
well i got a good feeling! Brewers’ staff is just candy for the Phils power hitters. eat up the starters, nibble on the bullpen, they send Hoffman out there, Howard, Utley and Ibanez will send him back to the retirement home. should make up for whatever our pitching will give up. Old man Moyer always finds a way to just barely make it.
I feel good about it too. More than that, I feel good about the team getting itself right, starting now.
Under the last Phils topic, Pete said this: “Some might see this as a good thing, but the fact that all five of our wins have been comeback wins says more that we are lucky to not be 0-11 than anything else. ”
Well, I’m one of those who sees it as a good thing. Obviously not because I think it’s good that we keep falling behind early. Rather, I think it shows that these guys have been together for a while, they believe in each other, and they keep grinding–together. Also, they have all played in the most pressure-packed games of their respective careers and came through it all with a championship, so I don’t think some early season struggles will be their undoing. I’m not sure how I developed this optimistic outlook, but I’m going with it.
I guess part of the reason is that Charlie Manuel has become increasingly vocal about the team’s inconsistent play. I see this as a good thing.
Look, we are all aware of all the distractions with which the Phils have had to deal already this season. Added to that is the fact that we have had two rain outs that have given us extra days off, this in addition to all the scheduled days off in April. These two factors have conspired to interfere with our preparation, and apparently our focus, for the season, with pitchers regaining their arms strength and command, and with hitters regaining their timing and swing. Even though some of this has been beyond our control (I’m aware that some is also self-inflicted), I am not excusing it. I do not like it. I do not want it to continue. That said, it has happened, which brings me back to Charlie.
I believe that Charlie is now to the point where he is going to start singling out and addressing players directly if things don’t come around, pronto. His latest statements certainly sound like a warning shot across the bow. He is letting the team know that it is past the time to focus completely on their preparation and their play on the field. He also seems to be looking for the players to police themselves, step up, and get this thing on the right track. I believe this is partly out of the respect he has for his players. I watched the Frank DeFord interview that aired on Real Sports. In it, Manuel said that he does not like to get after guys but that he will if he needs to. Well, it appears to me that he is at that point right now.
I did not like the Manuel hire. I have not really been thrilled with him through his tenure. Even in 2007, I thought it was more about the Mets’ collapse rather than anything Manuel did to get us a division title. However, he changed my opinion of him last year.
I really feel that Manuel knows these guys. He has been with 3/4 of them for 3 years now. He knows how to deal with each of them. He knows when to push and when to back off. The bottom line is that I believe he knows how to get the most out of these guys. I think he will step in and pull the right strings to get this team focused and winning.
There are factors that may come into play that will derail this season——injuries, Moyer really is less effective with age, etc…——-but I don’t think focus, determination, or that the manager couldn’t get the most out of his team will be among them. Once we get into the rhythm of playing every day, things will start falling into place and we’ll see our real team.
yeah – im pretty sure I’m going to stop making predictions!
also, Drabek has a 0.96 ERA through 3 starts and 26 K in 18.2 IP
The bats haven’t lost any momentum because of yesterday’s rain out, that’s for sure. We’re starting to see what we we thought we would this year.
We figured some guys had subpar years and we would see more from them this year. I know it’s early, but Howard looks like he’s headed for a big year. Utley is tearing it up like he did last April and he should stay solid now that his hip is 100%. It sure looks like Feliz’s back was keeping him down last year because he’s swinging well now.
So far, Rollins is the only one who hasn’t bounced back, but I expect he will too. Once that happens, and Victorino gets himself going, we should consistently put a bunch of runs on the board. Imagine if, for some reason, Marson ended up as our catcher. Our lineup would be ridiculous because the 8-hole with Ruiz, and Coste while he’s filling in, is our only consistent weak spot.
Pete: with respect to ‘Some might see this as a good thing, but the fact that all five of our wins have been comeback wins says more that we are lucky to not be 0-11 than anything else.’
you are right in a way. even though we are winning now I feel we have reverted back to the old form of 2007 when we had to hit our way into the playoffs miracle comeback after another. see the 2008 team won cos we had strong pitching. 07 team does not win a WS. but its a long season, this is not the best barometer for overall performance.
No reason to stop making predictions, Pete. You’re just calling ‘em like you see ‘em at the moment. I’m sure there will be times this season when I’m down on the Phils and you’ll be the one pointing out the positives.
I guess seeing what I have so far from our offense is giving me confidence. For long stretches of time last year we were begging for runs. Although it’s early, I don’t see that being a concern this year. I just have a sense that the bats are going to be there.
The pitching is a concern so far, but there have lately been signs of encouragement. Every starter is showing progress in each successive start he makes. That should continue, with the offense getting us some wins in the meantime.
So, for now at least, I’m going to stick with my optimistic/deluded outlook.
Boggles my mind how well the Phils offense clicks when Moyer is on the mound. Is it that the opposing pitcher is having an off night and the Phils bats are tearing it up? Or is it that Moyer is on the mound, one of the favorites of both the fans and teamates, so the Phils bats are tearing it up?
One reason: Moyer’s seldom pitted against the other team’s #1 or #2.
Pete – just keep predicting phillies to lose then we’ll be in good shape. lol
bball…….I saw your post on the last topic. I have noticed the way Sarge overemphasizes certain words in every sentence in trying to get his point across. He’s likable enough, but he just doesn’t do anything for me, especially when he repeats what Wheeler just said or simply states the obvious just to have something to say.
You know who really drives me nuts? Walt Frazier on the Knicks broadcasts. Again, he seems like a genuinely nice guy. Problem is he’s always forcing 10-cent vocabulary words into his commentary and, more often than not, using them improperly. Oh, and he’s always half-laughing every time he does this, too.
The guy is a hall of fame player. It bugs me that his color commentary involves nothing more than delivering one-liners in response to his play-by-play broadcast partner/straight man.
Anyway, I’m on board with Franzke and Andersen becoming our main broadcast tandem. Franzke does a good job with the play-by-play on the radio, while Andersen is less goofy and more pointed in his commentary than he was a few years ago.
bball-
with unneccesary emphasis on “throw”
I like Sarge and I think he’s worth listening to. He didn’t swallow the dictionary but he gets his points across. I don’t mind his unique cadence and inflections; they’re natural products. At least he played the game (hard and well), knows what he’s talkin’ about. Doesn’t beat around the bush either.
I meant to post a Carrasco update after your prospect watch, Pete. He seems to be doing pretty well so far. Last night he went 7 innings, giving up 3 runs on 3 hits and 1 walk while striking out 10. He took a no-hitter into the 7th, whereupon he surrendered his 3 hits and 3 runs. He ended up taking the loss as a result.
In spite of that his over all numbers are good: 3 GS, 19 IP, 14 H, 1 BB, 0.79 WHIP, 5 ER. 2.37 ERA, 20 K.
It’s Cole Hamels!
so, of course he gives up a 2-run homer and then promptly gets smoked by a line-drive and is now out of the game.
Can you believe it? Fielder just hit a shot that nailed Hamels in the left shoulder. Happ is on his way in from the pen. Geez! Hopefully it’s nothing serious.
It looks like you’re safe to continue making predictions, Pete. Fielder’s 3-run double now has the Brewers up 5-0 in the 5th, so losing 2 games in this series seems pretty likely.
What a disappointing series. After putting up 11 runs in game 1, and distorting my perception of it’s proficiency, the offense fizzled and only mustered 2 runs, on 2 solo HRs, in the final 2 games.
Something’s gotta give, and soon. Looking forward, the Marlins were swept by the Pirates, so they’re not unbeatable. However, we will be facing Johnson and Volstad in the first two games of the series.
Although I did not predict how many games we would win against the Brewers, I did go on at length about how our offense was coming around and should consistently put up a lot of runs. For now, I’m going to stay away from predictions. At least until the hallucinogens clear out of my system anyway.
I found a quote from Hamels that I wanted to pass along.
“Oh, yeah,” he said. “I’ll be fine. I’ve gotten hit in much worse spots, spots where you don’t really come back as fast. I’ll be able to go out there and pitch in five days. Hopefully it’ll finally be five days instead of the six or seven because of these rainouts.”
That’s good to hear. Hopefully there won’t be any lingering effects that will set him back for a start or two.
The next 2 weekends will really show us where the Phils are right now in comparison to the NL East. In FLA this weekend and home against NYM next weekend. Time to start playing like you are the defending world champions, like a team who only got better in the offseason and should be winning 2 of 3 every series.
JDubbz: I wouldnt put too much on this series. The NL east is a mess right now, only the Nationals are where they were supposed to be. The Mets look terrible, just got swept by the cards, the Marlins look like front runners and just gotn swept by the surprising Pirates, the Braves were supposed to be sleepers look just as mediocre as you could have predicted. We have had horrible pitching coupled with our usual slow starting offense. My point: its a long season.
knowing the Phillies penchant for the unexpected, I say we take 2 or sweep or get swept.
jkay….That’s some prediction for the series against the Marlins. Talk about covering all the bases. What is your day job, weatherman?…LOL!
bski: lol. if you work the permutations i didnt cross the 1 out of 2 possibility range so its not so blatant. ok how bout this… sweep or get swept. 1 out of 3 sounds more clairvoyant.
oops wrong on all counts. (I have got to stop doing this)
Matt Stairs is a BEAST! That man deserves to go to the all-star game. http://canadianwood.blogspot.com/