We finished 10-10 on our 20-game test against some of the best teams in the majors. Pretty impressive considering the injuries that occurred during that stretch. Now, we start a 16-game stretch against sub .500 teams (NYM, WAS, PIT, LAD, CHC). 10-6 or better would be a nice outcome there.
2011: 31-19
2010: 28-22
2009: 30-20
2008: 27-23
2007: 26-24
Series WPA
I’m going to try this out for a bit – essentially adding up the WPA for each of the games in the series to see who had the biggest impact on the series…
Top 3
1. Danys Baez, .615
2. Ryan Howard, .565
3. David Herndon, .511
Bottom 3
1. Ryan Madson, -.327
2. Domonic Brown, -.314
3. Michael Martinez, -.238
Good News
- Ibanez has had quite a May: .337 BA, 5 HR, 15 RBI, .962 OPS — so much for him being left for dead…
- The best news was that Chase was able to play 3 of the 4 games without any signs of aggravating his knee.
- Though Dom Brown struggled a bit, one thing that I really like about him is the quality of his AB’s. He has 3 walks in his 18 PA, and has seen an average of 4.34 pitches per AB over the last two years, which would be best on the team this year.
- Carlos Ruiz is back from the dead a little as well, going 6 for 13 in the series and raising his OPS by almost 100 points.
- It’s crazy that that one outing by Danys Baez completely turned around his standing in the eyes of the fans. We’ll see how long it lasts, but it was the best performance by a 1-inning reliever that I can remember.
Bad News
- I’m gonna skip this. It’s summer time. I’m happy.
Prospect Update
- Jarred Cosart’s last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 6 BB, 20 K
- Remember Zach Collier? He was horrible in 2009 and missed all of 2010 with an injury. He got off to a slow start in 2011, but has shown some signs of why he’s was compared to Garrett Anderson when he was an early pick for the Phils in 2008. In his last 10 games: .372 BA, .926 OPS, 5 SB.
- BJ Rosenberg is a starter now? Intriguing…13 IP, 3 ER (2.08 ERA), 10 H, 1 BB (0.85 WHIP) and 13K thru 3 “stretch-him-out” starts
Series Preview: Phillies at New York Mets
The Phils spend memorial day weekend in NYC against the Mets. The Mets have been battling, staying around .500 even with David Wright and Ike Davis out. Carlos Beltran has been the Beltran of old in May, making him a possible trade candidate. Jose Reyes has been playing well for his upcoming contract as well. Aside from those two, there hasn’t been a whole lot of good in their line-up.
Probable Pitchers
Friday (7:10): Oswalt (1.3 WAR) vs. LHP Chris Capuano (0.2 WAR)
Saturday (7:10): Hamels (2.1 WAR) vs. RHP Mike Pelfrey (0.0 WAR)
Sunday (1:10): Worley (0.9 WAR) vs. LHP Jon Niese (0.4 WAR)
3 questions for the series
- Can Utley or Brown get on a roll?
- Will Oswalt look better?
- How will Charlie manage the bullpen with Contreras back?
Series Expectations
SWEEP!
Have a happy and safe holiday weekend everyone.
could not agree more on Dom Brown.
glad you stayed away from the Hamels versus the Mets garbage that will permeate twitter and the like tomorrow.
When we won the 23-22 game, common thinking (as I saw it) was about resting guys x amount of time, and then just moving on. Our pitching staff wasn’t the same for quite a while. Baez is the only guy who stepped way out of character that night, so he may have some difficulty finding a range of effectiveness. I’d think people will at least hope that he’s all of a sudden good, but what he did that night might have some longer term ramifications. Speculative guesswork on my part.
Safe and Happy Memorial Day back at you.
Kudos for your 10-10 prediction, Pete.
Although Matt Stairs (2008 NLCS HR off Broxton) is the gold standard for lifetime passes (a list that also includes Geoff Jenkins for his “leadoff” double in Game 5 1/2 of 2008 WS, a hit that I think deserves more love), Baez and Valdez have earned a pass for a while.
way to roll, Other. Any chance I could buy a lifetime pass from you since I don’t post enough to get one for free?
And I forgot to congratulate Pete on the 10-10 call. Hope I’m not too late.
Saw saw on the teevee – Charlie said it’s officially hittin season. Watch out, world
At least Capuano is gone; if it wasn’t for Roy, we’d probably be trailng by a run or 2.
‘Murphy’s Law’ win: play a grounder like a kitty, anything can happen, including hitting into a tailor-made game-ending double play.
Pagan & Bay, firm of the infirm; T5 influenced course of history in one teachable moment …
aspiring ML-ers at home, do the opposite of what you witnessed in shallow left-center.
Applause for Ruben Tejada & Antonio Bastardo for 16-pitch battle in B8. Heart shown.
Start spreadin’ the news: Neon Jimmy loves Broadway, by way of Flushing Meadows. Flashings of orange & blue historically keeps him on the edge of his seat. Bravo!
I’d be remiss not to mention Dom’s understudy stint – auspicious in a naturalistic style.
Oswalt, simply good.
When it comes right down to it, Tarrytown smokers would rather fight than switch.
Pete, Not-much ado about something: 10-6 or better … is that a goal or a prediction?
The roll of fascinating baseball carried through last night. A mix of skill, as in Jimmy Shortstop who can still play this game, a mix of inept, as in Daniel Murphy tryng to field a grounder, a mix of drama as leads changed, some excellent pitching in which Chris “Should be” Capistrano paralyzed BAPIP fans early, and Roy Oswalt continued his comeback a lot longer.
But to me, sick soul that I be, the play of the game was the heavyweight championship bout between Bastardo and Tejada. The high level skill of Tejada, forcing a 16, count em 16 pitch at bat was more masterful than John Travolta’s best strut to the tune of “Stayin Alive.” A nuance of the game perhaps not as well executed since ex Phil and Met Whitey Ashburn strolled the playing field.
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At the end of the LCS’s this year, there remains an excellent chance that soothsayers will crow I told you so when Fox runs its first highly satisfying Phils-Red Sox World Series promo. But, funny things happen on the way to the forum, and strange potholes occur out of nowhere all the time. It remains a ridiculously outrageous longshot, but the higher levels of play in Seattle and Phoenix have congested the standings and lead to this wonderment while travelling down Fascination Lane. If the NFL and its players wind up shelving the first .5 of the season, and MLB offers up 2 of Unit Johnson’s stops in the Fall Classic, just how much would baseball bennie by running it’s showcase event to an altering sports audience. Suffice to say that novelty stories are nice, but the TV execs and MLB better pray the Phils and BoSox answer the liklihood. Football principles might be stupid, but not stupid enough to offer a multi year field to baseball of a much wider audience possibility. Gotta grab the gusto when you can.
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Cole Hamels takes the mound tonight. Matching Hamels against the Mets is like matching Elizabeth Taylor with a husband. Hallday has his Nationals, Frank Lary had his Yankees, and the other end of the spectrum is Hamels against the Mets. Scribes will be quick to jump on the all star game bound lefty if the Mets start jumping on him early about how he’s so good against everyone except the Mets. Hamels internal psyche might jump equally. It’s a good time for Cole to throw a shut down game early that with the support he’s goona get from teammates facing Mike Pelfrey parlays to a 7th win in the last 9 Phillie outings.
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John Mayberry had another solid contribution game last night. Made a real nice catch, picked up a hit that preceded some good baserunning, as he started for somewhere around his 9th straight game or so. It’s not like Vic is gonna get Wally Pipped here, but by the time he gets back, Charlie should feel pretty confident and reasonably anxious to leep finding at bats for the former number 1 draft pick. No doubt, the idea of a platoon in left will be bandied about, unless Senor Ibanez keeps immitating Ted Williams into June. History offers a suggestion that he might, since Raul’s 3 highest OPS months over a long if not storied career are June, July, and August. But the reality is that Raul hits equally well, or not well against lefties and righties. And throws equally ineptly against fast and slow extra base challengers. So in a perfect world, a platoon is based more on when speed and defense are needed than a lefty rigthy traditional platoon.
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Most baseball followers are buying into the Cleveland Indians actually being a good enough baseball team to contend all year. The question is whether the young picthing holds up. The offenseive machine that is, particularly in a year largely absent of that would seem pretty marketable. That product against a good, and consistent contending Tampa Bay team is a good matchup that drew all of 16,000 plus announced last night in Florida, let alone actual bodies in the house. And I’ll spin out of here on that note with reference to the soulful tune from 1971 by The Spinners called “Its a Shame”.
Time for another in the all important pre Memorial Day CY update.
Following another good performance last night where he held the Cardinals to 6 earned runs on 12 hits (held is appropriate considering the Cardinals hitting skills), the numbers look like this in the race.
Valdez has 1 win, Jimenez, uh, zippo. Some of the peeps think wins is an outdated stat. Willie’s ERA is 0.00, Jimenez is 5.86. ERA is still not sabermetric enough for some people. Jimenez has a better ground ball rate. Specifically, he has more, Valdez less.
Some people on the board are involved in the all important discretion between predictions and goals. Not this boy. I’m working on the separation between threats and promises. I promise to exercise my threat that if Jimenez wins the CY over Valdez, I will stop following baseball.
Wilson Valdez. A celeberty for life.
Seven Degrees Of Separation: Wilson Valdez. Glenn Wilson. Behn Wilson. Wilson Washington. Billy Wilson. George “Jiff” Wilson. Harry “Lighthorse” Wilson.
Dateline, First Base
Attention blue light shoppers.
Bear Stears has downgraded Ryan Howard hitting .313 on July 1 from prediction to goal. Advice was short the prediction, play is now cover the goal. Stay long on high RBI total.
In other news, storied financial analyst Ryan Howard has upgraded the collapse of Bear Stearns from 100% complete to 100% historical since 2008: Strong buy to STRONG BUY. Stay long, “tape measure” long or whiff on profits.
Howard Wealth Management of St. Louis
“Where your money’s in the bank, 27.7% of the time”
Captains Log (sometime June/July)
SS – Old timer, still quick with the bat somewhat, but the defense provided is more than enough to make up for the many shortcomings.
2B: Just called up fresh lefty. Hits for average, power withstanding but emerging, heads up scrappy fellow. Will pay dividends later on if mishaps (injury) are absent.
3B: Old reliable. Slow footed and Platinum Gloved (if you will). All you can ask is the cortisone shots keep him together and you’re set.
1B: Big hard swinger’s hacks are now being rewarded with big hard hits/RBIs. Leave him alone to work in the summer.
LF: Granpa is getting his groove back. Ride the benefits while you can, when it cools down you can mix and match with the eager youngsters.
C: Everything you expect. Provide ample protection with days off and pray for his health to extend safely through October.
CF: While stalwart is ailing, young gun is proving his worth. Unexpected bonus is the minimal drop in defense.
RF: Musical chairs. Reward the hungry and/or the hot.
Bench: Pleasant surprise. Must hunt to find at-bats to satisfy.
SP: WARNING! PRECISION INSTRUMENTS. Leave alone. Do not tamper with.
RP: Set-up and closer; formidable duo, check
Lefty; loose young gun, check
Long men; coin toss reliability. check.
Miscellaneous parts; know their roles, give sufficient results. check.
emergency arm; 0.00ERA. check
Outlook: very positive.
Honestly I think the Phils can only get better at this point. Barring some crazy bad luck in the form of another major injury, they’;re gonna really stretch that NL lead.
Calling a sweep tomorrow with Worley on the mound. Even if we fall behind, we still have the Mets bullpen.
Watch out, the Phils are playing ball.
When we won the 23-22 game, common thinking (as I saw it) was about resting guys x amount of time, and then just moving on. Our pitching staff wasn’t the same for quite a while. Baez is the only guy who stepped way out of character that night, so he may have some difficulty finding a range of effectiveness. I’d think people will at least hope that he’s all of a sudden good, but what he did that night might have some longer term ramifications. Speculative guesswork on my part.>> (fri on Wednesday night)
Sat nite on Sat nite
Kinda blown away by something related to this. Carlos Fisher, who countered Baez Wednesday night to the tune of 90 pitches himself, in 5 plus innings actually pitched tonight. 20 pitches, 9 strikes, walked 2. Lousy outing, not to mention the possibility of increasing of arm injury. Worse yet, the outing may have stopped only because the Braves scored a walk off. Cincy certainly didn’t need an extra extra inning game, but they got it, and Dusty’s hand may have been forced, although he doesn’t have a great rep as a handler of pitchers anyway. So we’ll see how Fisher fares, and hopefully Baez doesn’t pitch real quick because he’s a behind guy anyway, but also for his sake.
Amazin’ Mets, still. Game turns on 1 pitch: Mike O’Connor’s Irish potato of a 1-2, 2-out breaking ball and Utley’s “pirate’s map” placement.
Terry Collins overmanaged, bit nails down to loss.
Utley to Rollins, Howard post-game: I pump you both up!
Today’s game is dedicated to the memory of 60s & 70s Mets-Phils hybrid pitchers. The roll call: Roger Craig, Dick Selma, Gary Kroll, Dallas Green, Jack Hamilton, Dennis Bennett, Don Cardwell, Tug McGraw, Mac Scarce, Jerry Koosman, Nino Espinosa, Pat Zachry and Wayne Twitchell. Their long ago sacrifices in many a bloody skirmish for the liberty of modern baseball are sometimes overlooked. A moment of silence please … thank you.
Mets all-time winning percentage: .479
Phils all-time winning percentage: .472
Yes, Philadelphia youngsters, this IS the Golden Age for your Phillies (if winning is paramount).
Good for Charlie, Howard gets the day off. And he’s hardly the only one.
CM: an admixture of Eddie Sawyer (“build up a fellow’s confidence and you build up his ability”), Gene Mauch (born to compete), Bob Skinner (gentleman; much better ML hitter than Charlie), Frank Lucchesi (hothead, played to crowd), John Felske (lumbering) and Terry Francona (player’s manager). Blessed with autopilot starting pitching talent by Ruben II. Veteran core of hitters, more than pocket change too. Cholly on the rail!
Worley’s location looks bad today. Gotta tighten it up.
Hittin’ weather.
One might say that we don’t exactly have out beat offensive lineup out there today…
Best, not beat
Funny game today.
I mean, Worley gets knocked around, combined with some bad defense, and we get down big early, but we held them to 1 run over the last 7 innings and gave ourselves a chance, however slim.
Like Dude said, we did not have our best offensive lineup out there, however they did keep scratching and put 5 on the board (not enough and too little to late I know but they still showed something).
Even though we were in an early hole I kept hoping we could push a few across, get Niese out of the game, and get at their bullpen. To that end, the top of the 3rd was a killer. Ben Fran up with the bases loaded and a 3-1 count. A fastball hitter who knows he will be getting 2 fastballs from a pitcher with a 7-run lead and he couldn’t do a thing. Rollins getting thrown out in the 8th didn’t help much either. Ibanez had chances in the 3rd (ahead of Francisco) and the 5th but couldn’t come through. Missed opportunities up and down the lineup in a game where they needed for take advantage of every one in order to overcome the rough start.
I don’t know if anyone else caught this but after Reyes got on base in the bottom of the 3rd, Wheeler started talking about how Reyes should not be attempting to steal in an 8-1 game. At the time I thought “why not?” I mean, I know scoring is down this year across baseball, and with the Phillies in particular. BUT, it was only the bottom of the 3rd, the Mets only had a 7-run lead, the Phillies have been scoring more of late, they had just had the bases loaded and scored a run in the top of the inning, and they had scored 4 runs against the Mets bullpen in the 8th and 9th innings in each of the two previous games. At that point, it certainly was not beyond reasonable to think that the Phils could indeed get a few more across and maybe make it an 8-4 game by the 6th inning and get into the Mets bullpen with a shot. (And as it turned out we did put another 4-spot on the Mets bullpen, we just weren’t close enough for it to matter.)
Then, I think it was the bottom of 5th inning, T-Mac asked Sarge what he thought about stealing in that situation and Sarge said that at that point you definitely should still be stealing bases and trying to add on more runs. Later in the game or with a bigger lead, no, but today’s situation, yes, which jibed with what I thought at the time.
Wheels can be rough to deal with when the game ain’t going well. Days like this, I turn off the Teevee & tune into the radio.
Jesse Biddle pitched 7 innings today (longest of career i think) and gave up 1 unearned run. He looked good, his fastball was ranging from 90-96, his changeup was working and his curve had good movement. In the last update somebody gave they said his velocity was down, I talked to his dad and he said that that is not the case he said that the radar gun is out of sync (possibly set for righties?) at Lakewood and so whatever number you see on the pitch speed board is really 3-5 mph less than what is really being thrown.
He may have dropped off a little legtimatey (not to dispute his dad). He missed a start, not sure of the reason. But the 7 IP is the longest of the year, and 2 of his last 3 starts have been on the uptrend, certainly what you wan to see from a young guy. Regarding the 96, he was touching 93-94 when he was drafted, more consistently 92, so to grow into 96 is pretty believable.
That’s a definite possibly seeing as it is his first true professional season.
Pete
Thoughts in advance on who’s going back down when Vic comes back Friday?
When Jayson signed with Washington, one of the comments he made was he thought they were closer to winning than people thought. I supose he really believed that, and probably isn’t too interested in using Ryan Zimmerman as an excuse, although that is huge. But having lost 9 of 11 now, including 2 of 3 at ome to the Padres, the frustrations probably haven’t subsided that found him voicing them just a few days ago.
http://www.masnsports.com/byron_kerr/2011/05/riggleman-werth-wasnt-referring-to-skipper-regarding-change.html
fella needs to be more patient. Washington probably will be good once those young-ins mature. Not only Jordan Zimmerman and Strasburg but even Espinosa and Desmond look real promising too. Morse could make a name for himself too. I like Washington, if only they can somehow learn to field.
Today in history.
At Shibe Park, Babe Ruth played only Game 1, and only the first inning of a doubleheader between the Boston Braves and Phils. The year was 1935. That was the final time the Babe appeared in MLB as a player.
Just saw this article about a hot pitching prospect from SoCal and is in the Phillies organization:
http://bethlehem.patch.com/articles/is-there-another-ace-on-the-horizon
There are a couple historic things that happened in baseball on this date in Washington. Mickey Mantle walloped a legendary 565 foot homer that was so talked about, it became part of my baseball card collection down the road. That’s a lot of feet.
On the pitching side, Walter Johnson made his season debut in whatever year, and tossed a shutout. It would be the last shutout of his career, wrapping a total of 113. That number made me wonder how many Doc has, and at first I thought 20 wojuld be a decent guess. Then I thought too hard, and decided 9 woyuld be my final answer. Moire evidence of first instincts usually being the correct play. He’s at 19. I don’t know what’s more impressive. Throwing so many more shutouts than Doc, or getting within about 90 of Johnson. You prolly could complile a half decent list of half decent 113 game winners in a career, and Johnson threw that many shutouts. Old timers in Koufax’s day prolly viewed Johnson like old timesr now compare Halladay to Koufax. As in hard to believe the younger guy could be better. All I know is that any 2 of the 3 would formulate one great, great matchup.
Think I’d play against the book here and had Doc swing away. Play for the big inning. He’d have a decent shot at contact against Livan.
Garett Claypool: 7 shutout, 4 H, 7 Ks…Lakewood starters haven’t allowed an ER in their last 28 IP (4 games)…2-0 Claws @ the stretch.
Howard & Raul. Just like old times. And Chooch now too. Here we go…
Great AB by brown. I wasn’t convinced that it was the right time to bring him up, but he’s proving me wrong. Good for him.
If not for thre brutal pitching we face later this month, I swaer, I’d be ready to start playing Dom Brown every day like within the next week or 10 days. Terrif9ic inning rolls on.
FP Santangelo, a real good analystst, possessive of MLB experience just commented that Doc getting a lead is dangerous because this is where he’ll pick it up a notch.
My suspicion on this particular Memorial Day is he’ll continue to kinda sorta labot, and this is up to the pen.
Here’s the deal on Dom Brown. 8 hits in his last 12 ABs. Even with the help of fate in the Apple on 1 AB, he’s still 7 of 12. Asked yesterday who was being particularly helpful, he predictably said Jimmy and RyHo. Somewhat unpredictably, he mentioned Raul.
But then the topic was pursuded, and in elaborating, Dom said that on days lefties throw, he talks to Cliff a lot, and that’s been real helpful. The problem is that still leaves you woindering what they talk about. Is Cliff telling him how he’s thinking as a lefty pitcher, or giving him pointers as a fellow outstanding lefty slugger? What a team, what a year.
Raul’s a guy that I’d hope any young position player we bring up is talking to, just to learn how to be a pro ball player as much in terms mentally & physically preparing to play the game as playing the game. Like Jamie Moyer was for our young pitching. Might call raul a “pro’s pro” if I were inclined to toss a cliche out there
Lotta time for Doc to rest that half inning. We’ll see if it helps.
I just learned more in one half inning listening to FP Santangelo than I have in 40 years of listning to Chris Wheeler.
Perhaps the good Doctor is on a recruiting mission to enlarge the Doc’s patients brigade. The homer barrage is rekindling unpleasant memories of his 1 negative from a season ago.
I don’t have the digits available to back this, but I believe now that he’s back hitting 2nd, we will see a return to greatness by Plac. Charlie might move him to 5 whnShane gets back, based on previous quotes, though you never know with Charlie, but Plac is a fantastic number 2 hitter.
Hall voters won’t remember that great at bat, down 0-2, and Chase sets up The Big Piece with a walk. Outstanding work.
And now we hopefully get evidence of why you can’t drop Raul into a straight platoon.
Well, it wasn’t against the likes of a Venters, but we beat the lefty. Almost madson time.
That’s baseball ladies & gentlemen. Well done by the meat of the lineup.
You cannot possibly give Chase enough credit for coming back from that 0-2 to set it up.
I think as part of the growth process, I’d let Dom hit here, as Charlie’s doing. Not only that, but you want your best defense out there, and there aren’t many arms like Dom.
I have to think sertiously about pulling Doc after this inning. It’s probably close to a no brainer. let him spend his gas now, pinch hit, then Truck and Madson to see if we can get it. It’s probably a lock with Stutes and Bastardo up.
That’s what it’s about. Goes 0-2 on 2 straigth hitters, and doesn’t let up. Just like he got 2 out now, and can’t let up on JW.
that is, as usual, a Hall of Fame level close. The Doc, comin back strong, and fully spent at this point. To be honest, despite the fact that it’s Doc, I sat here really wondering and unable to decide if it was time to bring Stutes in to face JDub. Glad it worked out, but at this point, the Doc is spent, and let’s get him a win on one of his less effective days. He deserves that turnabout.
I’d say that if John gets on, decent chance, I send Martinez up to bunt. Not Gload.
get the idea they are pitching him away? ADJUST!
lousy at bat for Big John. Video of that will kill him to watch.
While this is kinda out of the Gene Mauch book of overmanaging, Charlie is playing this one to the hilt. Setting up a true team win. Can’t say I blame him, as it does put matchups more in our favor. Good post season style preview. And he may not be done yet, although mdson gets the entire 9th.
Good split second processing by Chase. Polly throws him off the base, regroups quickly, and gets the out at first. Could have been eons worse.
Wheels wondering if Romero is a real option in a meaningful AB: priceless.
JC is pretty good against lefties. You don’t know about his control, but against lefties he’s okay. Wheels couln’t braodcast to a rigth hander, or a lefthander, and should announce his retirement faster than people wanted Rauul to a few weeks back.
I know he was good against lefties, but its all theory until he remembers where the strike zone is. Sporting a 1.6 WHIP at this point, picking upright where he left off last year.
Bringing JC in to face matt would have been okay, even though JC is an adventure, but the real problem with it would have been really burning through the pen in a 1 run game. Worked out well. See if we can get madson some protection here.
The second baseman is gonna hit a gapper to rigth center. If he doesn’t work another walk.
Lotta empty seats behind the plate. What an opportune time for some yon teenager to sneak down, and scope the top of the ninth with Polly, Chase and RyHo in a bird’s eye view at the plate. Not to mention Madson closing it out. You can’t beat fun at the old ballpark.
The different levels of skill on a 25 man roster are mind boggling. I know we’re still in lifetime pass territory, but as an example, it’s hard to believe Doc Halladay, and Kyle Kendrick are on the same club. And maybe even more pronounced, certainly for this year, is the spectrum that ranges from Johnny Venters to George Sherrill. Batters are now 0-6 against JV with the ducks on the pond this year, not to mention other numbers that health and future permitting have placed Venters in an enviable position for CY contention. Sherrill has done his thing once again, allowing the Pads to go ahead and ring up heath Bell time.
Monday is a funny day. It’s a wise practice to never ask the innocent enough question, “how yous doin?” on a Monday. The respondent migyht take the inquiry literally, and answer with a sob story and a half like you really care.
But, like most rules, there are those meant to be broken. A la this memorial Day, 2011. First of all, in a double batting order switch, Charlie goes back to the classic lineup of Polly 2, Chase 3. And Chase gets a step closer to back in form display by taking an o-2 count to a walk, setting up a final, and winning rally, triggered by an easy to take for granted RyHo, not to mention Raul “Comeback Player Within the Yar” Ibanez, both of whom clouted dingers earlier, and then clutch hit their way to ribs off a lefty. The Doc was gutty plus, Charlie masterfully managed the pen, and away we go.
So the usual lineup of Geator Gold pre Phillies nightgames is now the second part of the doubleheader, and should sound even better than usual. You’re okay in my book, Monday. Even if it only happens like once in a lifetime.
Cliff tomorrow. The party rolls on.
tell you what; as much as the Phillies spoil the fans with success, the players might be equally as reciprocated with the attention of the Phils fans. Nationals Park all redded up with the well traveling Phils fans. An ovation for Madson’s last out.
Together with the Clearwater crowd, every NL East game, might as well be a home game.
Halladay looked more like Jerry Johnson than Walter Johnson today. 10 hits (3 gopher balls), 4 runs in 7 innings against the team with the 3rd worst record in baseball. The New York Thruway Patrol has been alerted and is on watch for his chauffeur’s unsafe speeding towards Cooperstown.
CAREER
Halladay ERA 3.29 GS 331 CG 62 SHO 19 WHIP 1.176 H/9 8.7
Koufax 2.76 314 137 40 1.106 6.8
W. Johnson 2.17 802 531 110 1.061 7.5
*correction: W. Johnson played in 802 games, was starting pitcher in 666 (surprisingly just 13th ranking by number of starts all-time; was eclipsed by a number of moderns).
**correction #2: W. johnson played only against caucasions
That’s not a correction, that’s an overlay, and a reminder of the obvious - one which suggests your suggesting that non-caucasian players are superior hitters to their paler brethren. If so, where’s your supportive data for such a stand? I say it’s a canard. Not all native Americans are Jim Thorpe; not all African-Americans are Josh Gibson; not all Hispanics are Minnie Minoso. Place prime “Big Train” on the ML mound of your choice, and he would kick ass today. http://www.cmgww.com/baseball/johnson/achievements.htm
I am not going farther than the obvious stat that 33 of the last 48 MVPs (last 24 years – both leagues) would NOT have been allowed to play against Big Train. Sorry, he has nice stats, but they only have relevance within his era. He was great in the baseball “club” that the league was back then. He may well have been great in this ERA, but not 2.17 or 110 SO great. Probably more like Koufax stats or Clemens/R. Johnson.
Usually the point you make about different eras is a valid one — Walter Johnson is a case where it is not.
Johnson is the all-time leader in a variety of stats that adjust for time period and in my opinion, the greatest pitcher of all-time, career-wise.
Phils went up, up and away in Howard’s beautiful 4th inning balloon. Antonio, Jose & Ryan managed soft landing.
When Jason Marquis last faced the Phils earlier this month, he was pitching pretty well on the road back from an injury driven 2010. Chase Utley was not in the lineup. He’s still pitching decently, maybe not quite as well, but in that game earlier this month, we tagged him for 10 hits in 5 innings, parlaying that into 6 earned runs (7 total).
So you’d have to feel pretty confident of the matchup based on that.
Adding Chase Utley to the lineup carries an added confidence to it just by his general presence. But considering the way the Phils have hit Marquis, and in particular Chase, on paper, this projects as a brutal matchup for the nats.
Truth be told, Charlie could pick any one of a few people to bat cleanup tonight, and you couldn’t fault him.
While the career numbers are maybe a little inflated by inclusion of at bats against marquis when he wasn’t healthy, here are some highlights.
Chase is 13-28 (only 2 extra base hits), add 5 walks for an OBP of .531
Raul is 7 for 19 with 2 homers
RyHo is 7 for 22, but has also earned 5 walks
Neither Jimmy or Plac have fared especially well, but not anywhere near poorly enough to worry. Of the first 6 times they bat between them, they should get on at least twice based on career versus the pitcher data.
But even if the 3-4-5 doesn’t have it’s usual success, Chooch is 3-7.
We’re gonna have to come out quite flat to lose this one.
From the happy birthday department this May 31st, the Hall of Fame is reserved for the elite. Some guys walk away from the game short the official accolade, but can feel in their hearts a Hall of Fame achivement, and not be foolish at all. Particularly when their superior athletic skill is such that they maxed out their talent to the best of their ability. Some of these guys are the types that will glad hand people in business, or public life years after their playing career, and their greatness will probably grow in legend because of that athletic talent. Couple that with the hardly coincidental frequent playoff appearances that mark their resume, and it’s completely understandable. Not to mention playoff appearances by other clubs that popped into the playoffs after they left his competitive mark on their franchises.
Happy 44th birthday to Kenny Lofton. A terrific player for 17 years, and part of the Phillies family in the growing year of 2005.
I’d highly reccomend reading David Murphy’s blog piece today. It involves some keen guesswork on the rotation through the challenging June 2nd half, and the unfortunate liklihood that John mayberry is headed back to the minors.
I’m trying to come up with a letter grade to put on Cliff with 2 calendar months in the book. You can’t give him an F, because on the whole, he hasn’t failed, and it’s not like he’s been completely bad. Bit a D minus or above would be passing, and that’s not the case either. Just have to keep working through it and get it right.
agreed – although according to philly.com today he did go 8 straight starts with combined ERA of 2.5ish. I would not have guessed that.
Well here we are – about 1/3 through the season. My grades look like this.
Halladay – A- (horse every rotation needs but not as sharp as early last year)
Hamels – A (pay the man, shirley! Will he win 18+)
Oswalt – B (Down from A due to missed time)
Lee – D (his win total over/under stands at 11, which would you take?)
Madson – A
Rest of Pen – B-
Rollins – C , unfortunately looks like the 2007 version is long gone. Still great defense though makes him valuable.
Polanco – A – gamer in every way. Utleyesk – reeks baseball
Howard - A- – pace for 36/126 not justifying pay but one of the best April/May of career. Pace should consider his best months lie ahead so I will call it a pace of 42/135. Add to that 0 errors this year and many great scoops of Rollins one-hoppers. the minus is due to elevate K statistics.
Ibanez – C+ – great bounceback. If he stays somewhere between April and May numbers he can be a B by year end.
Ruiz – C- – hasn’t “fired” yet.
Victorino - B – steady offense, no prolonged slumps – good defense. The new catalyst now for this offense.
Benny F. – F – Failed experiment. May they release him for roster spot with Mayberry righthanded bat?
Excited to see Brown and Mayberry for the rest of the year.
You just can’t give RyHo an A. Even a B plus is pushing it. There have been a handful of games where he drove in a big run in a small offense, and that’s terrific, but by no means has he carried the club when they needed it on any sort of A level basis. I’d land him between a B and B plus, and I’d classify that as coming out of a very slightly generous.
Sure, Raul trends north off the strong comeback. Gi ven how bad he was early, taking him up to a C plus is fine. Adding that his defensive ability is still soft, I’d drop him back down to a straight C, or C minus.
Fair points Ken. I did give Ryan a A-, so B+ is certainly acceptable. I am actually quite impressed with his defense and that elevated him a bit higher for me.
I will throw out another prediction of what our lineup will look like on September 1 and we likely ride to a parade on Broad Street:
Victorino
Polanco
Utley
Howard
Brown
Rollins
Ibanez
Ruiz
I see big things for Brown.
To answer the 11 over/under on Cliff, over without blinking. The guy shows no signs of injury. His velocity is there. Despite the fact that it’s taking what seems so long, but really isn’t, I amatuerishkly that it is continue to believe that it’s a mechanical flaw at work. That usually equates to release point. I’m not even close to backing off the feeling that he will throw 6-10 Cliff Lee type games in a row before the year is over. Once he straightens his game out, the confidence will boom, and I don’t even expect to remember this by year end. But for now, there’s no escaping that it is what it is. And it hurts.
Per Doc versus last year, if I wanted to spend 30 minutes or so, I bet I could draw an uncanny quantity and quality of similarities between last year and this. His bottom line is around the same, I don’t recall his being any sharper then than now. I do recall A- being a popular grade for him last year, at whatever point the few that first offered grades did. A minus, including his last 2 starts, both of which were I guess shrug worthy is a good description seems pretty inarguable for this year.
Two things…
I did wanna make a comment on the Ruth all white era that unfortunately has sprung another life even though these discussions lead nowhere, albeit interesting if for no other reason because of the talents involved, and the involvement of the imaginative process.
The contention that Ruth and the like played amongst only whites does carry validity. But in a larger sense than racially. Primarily, it’s about the talent pool, and time. At least as much, and to my way of thinking, more so than about the exclusion of minorities, whether or not they had superior skills.
Take a look at the overall population of the country, let alone world now, with baseball developing talent globally. The world is double what it was when Koufax pitched. So in the 1920s, it was what, probably half of what it was in 1960. So there was less white talent to draw from, let alone the eventual inclusion of all races.
That doesn’t even get into the socio economic factors. The 20′s might have roared, but I don’t know that it was with a loudness that afforded the level of recreation time and development that developed a half century later during the time when baby boomers hit the teens and had better training and conditioning availability, and advanced coaching.
Nowadays, this trend has gone maybe too far for the game’s good. There’s massive competition from other sports, both major and minor for the athletic talent. The global source is maybe not doing more than offsetting that distraction. During Civel Rights Weekend, on Braves TV, Brian Jordan was lamenting that there are only 8% Afro Americans in the bigs. I don’t know, but I’d guess the white representation is down also giving way to latin and Oriental influence.
But the overall point is that there is no question that the great stars of long, long ago amassed achievements in a far, far different world. Overplaying those great accomplishments, and liberally assuming they’d excell later, or thinking their numbers were so much better than more current players does zero to take me off my original point that was something along the lines of out of Halladay, Koufax and Johnson, matching any of the 3 against each other would be a treat. That might be too vanilla to appeal to anyone else as a position, but it’s the only truth I can see out of the thing.
To me it is much more interesting to project backwards. Think about what numbers Pedro Martinez or Randy Johnson would have amassed playing against those whities in 1910 during their peak years when they were putting up sub 2 ERAs. Would they have done sub 1 ERAs multiple years? Perhaps. Maybe 23-24 strikeouts a game numerous times in their careers? Likely. Would Randy Johnson have averaged 15ks a game in his peak years? Not unthinkable.
That’s some wild stuff.
I would have to agree with the talent pool point. I’m generally very leary of comparisons accross eras for other reasons, but this one is a good one as well that i hadn’t though of, at least not in this sense. Even with stats that purport to adjust for inter-era variability, you’re really talking about ballpark comparisons as, IMO, no amount of statistical adjustments can compensate completely for all of the variables at play.
Just a general comment. Dont have an opinion, or interest on getting involved in the actual player comparisons that brough this up. I’m pretty happy to say that the eras are different and let it go at that.
There are a few other factors to be considered here. Unlike today, most American kids, black, white, latino played baseball “back in the day”. I’d suspect that before all of the other sports that now impinge on the talent pool, there were few choices other than baseball ( and maybe football) to occupy kids who were interested in athletic activity. In addition to the usual choices of today, swimming , year round soccer and basketball, laX, tennis, etc – I even know a kid, now 26, who was in training as a race driver when he was in his teens In other words, the baseball cohort contained far more than would be supposed by looking at raw population numbers by itself. And kids, I think were a lot more self-directed and did not need the organizing efforts of adults as they do today. They actually went out and played during the day, and evening, day after day. The difference between now and even thirty years ago is great. I’d suspect that earlier eras reflect even greater self direction as well as concentration on even fewer sports. Both of these elements would increase the cohort in both quantity and quality from what might be assumed by raw data.. This does not of course look at the professional, segregated game as an equal or better game but only adds a bit of nuance and perspective.
“antique man, less; modern man, more”: a fabrication of vanity and self-delusion.
John mayberry gets the 2 hole today. Kinda like the move,and certainly interested to see how he does in a more advantageous lineup poisition to see more pitches to hit. In theory, of course.
I’m not real thrilled about it, but realistically, John’s still a candisate to be optioned to clear room for Shane. One game is only going to matter so much, but hopefully, he makes such a move harder with a good game today.
This is an interesting discussion… MLB draft if you were starting your franchise from scratch today for the future… http://espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?page=110601franchisedraft
Tulo goes #1 – looks like they will be picking every 20 minutes or so. Since the Phils are mostly on the back-end of their careers, not sure how many (if any) will get drafted. Would think Halladay goes highest.
very cool idea by the World Wide Leader. Tulo first is sensible from the position standpoint. I’m waiting to see where Carl Crawford goes. I wonder if Dom gets drafted. Might be a stretch.
By the way, you think Doc over Cole? I’d wonder about that. Call it debatable, at least to me.
I guess not. I keep forgetting Cole is just 27. I always lump him in with Rollins/Utley/Howard.
Heyward went way too early and I would have taken Harper 6th. Wonder if Strasburg will go.
Bryce and now Mike Trout ahead of Crawford and Jay Bruce is too liberal for me. Potential, yes, but I’ll take the good player with some experience.
I really like this draft, not to criticize it, but c’mon, Strassburg at 22? Verlander at 16 is okay, but Feliz ahead of Tommy hanson and Cole? That’s questionable.
I fully expected Sutcliffe to do something idiotic and he didn’t disappoint
Having been a teammate of Bo Belinsky back in the day, I’d have never thought I’d get a chance to acknowledge the 70th living birthday of one of my favorite pitchers from back then, but we’ll do it and wish Dean Chance exactly that. A very solid pitcher that won a CY, and led the upstart Angels to near instant success early in their history. Chance throws the first ball out on Saturday night when the Yanks visit as part of the franchise’s 50th birthday. Chance, Leon “Daddy Wag’s Wagner, and Jim Fregosi. Fun ballclub that like 2 years into franchise history prompted the July 4 LA Times to scream in headline form, “Heaven Can Wait, Angels in First on the 4th.”
Today also marks the first start of Lou Gherig’s 2130 in a row. Would have been an awesome privelege to watch him play.
1964. It was a very good year.
http://www.rickswaine.com/articles/article2.html
not if you were a Cub (Brock trade) or Phillie fan (need I detail that?).
“Brock struck out a lot and didn’t know how to run the bases. We thought we had given up too much.” - Cardinals 1st baseman Bill White
And it was a very good article
”The Ill-Fated Class of 1964″ – can find it on author’s website if interested.
Pivotal point of the game, phase 1, and I’m a little surprised they even unintentionally intentionally walked Polly. Mayberry has to come through here.
Great play by play call on Gameday:
“-Defensive Substitution: Jerry Hairston replaces third baseman Alex Cora, batting 8th, playing 3rd base
-Wilson Valdez reaches on fielding error by thrid baseman Jerry Hairston.”
Ominous play-by-play call: “injury delay”
Sarge looks good in Seahawks green. McCarthy – it doesn’t quite work.
I’m hoping that FP Santangelo and Wheels get on wrong flights post game, and we all can live happily ever after.
Maybe the way things are going we need something from an unexpected source to win this stupid game. 2-1 isn’t bad, of course, but after last night and faced with losing 2 of 3, it’s a BUMMER, if not depressing. Let’s see what fransisco does this inning.
Well, Doc went 28, and Wilson Ramos wrapped it up at 30. No Dom Brown. I guess these guys haven’t been watching him since he got called up. Small sampling, as they say, but they’ll be sorry. If the draft went deep enough, I’d have grabbed Adam EWainright in there somewhere. A worthwhile risk.
Overall opinion: people reached too much for unproven prospects. Wilson Ramos? Really?
yeah, I agree, but that was a really cool concept. Glad you caught that. Fun stuff.
Augie March. Augie Busch. Augie Donatelli. Augie Pantellas. Augie Doggy. Augie Daddy.
Dog day of Augie.
Who’s your Auggie!?!
they are gonna want to redo that draft after this at bat. fingers crossed.
Laynced!
still hoping for more than consolation prizes today, but…
Short day for Roy O but was pulled for off. purposes not fatigue. Topped out near 93 today & had 8 swings-and-misses, most since 4/21 vs SD
Wish i could have seen those two innings by Stutes. Larry Anderson has a serious man crush developing on the young cole hames look-alike.
Phils currently on 98 win pace.
Presidential lean: By tomorrow, with Shane’s pineapple on same field as Dane’s coconut, native Hawaiians will comprise 8% of Phils roster. Scorebook ‘em, Danno.
Repeal Zagurskicare!
Local laptops showin’ Dom sum luv now for surge of about 10 hits. Check back in 2 weeks for latest weather.
From the day after reactions department, while oh, well seems most appropriate, it’s still a disappointment to lose 2 of 3 to the Nats. That is an improved club over last year, but with no Ryan Zimmerman, you hate to pass on the chance to add more wins. And it does kinda put a little pressure on to win 2 of 3 against the Pirates. You don’t wanna lose too many games against clubs you should beat. Hard as it is to project 3 years out, I’d guess the Braves, Nats, and Fish are gonna help comprise a minimum of the AL East’s rep of late, let alone if RAJ succeeds at transitiong an older clubso at least winning series against em when you can and should is appeasing.
Here’s some potential insight into what might be going on with Cliff. PhuturePhillies, who those that follow the prospects know is a hard working, knowledgable guy asks a question of David Hale who offers some info in his reply.
PP: According to fangraphs’ data, Clifton’s cutter has been his worst pitch this year, by far, in terms of value. Has he mentioned anything about struggling with the pitch? His grip maybe? Might be worth looking at. Thanks!
David:I t’s an interesting point. I haven’t mentioned it to him specifically, but he’s discussed some questionable pitch selection at times this year, so it may not be so much that he’s not throwing the cutter as well but that he’s not throwing it at the right times.
I’ve also heard some discussion around the league that perhaps hitters are seeing so many cutters these days that they’ve caught up to it a bit more than they had a year or two ago. I don’t know if there’s a good way to track that overall (something worth looking into) but there may be some truth to that, too. >>
I didn’t bold type that to suggest any criticism of the catchers. That’s as much on Cliff as them. But I do specifically remember when Cliff finally struggled here in early September of 09, after a great start, and great finish, his comments were geared toward pitch selection problems.
David goes on to point out in different terms that Cliff has been what we expected about 80% of the time, mentioning a 2.78 ERA save for 2 starts. And this is true. Not that he has to be 100% of the time, but I’m sure Cliff would tell you 80% isn’t good enough. Pete has mentioned after some of Cliff’s along the lines of what we expected starts about the bad innings within at least a couple of those starts. Whether pitch selection is actually the problem is something Cliff needs to work through. And not necessarily quickly, although it’s not a problem that can’t linger through the regular season. While it’s true he’s here to win in the post season, he’s here to do a good amount more than that.
There seems little reason to believe health, or age is an issue. Cliff’s velocity is there. As I opined yesterday, down the road, nobody will remember this.