1986 Steve Jeltz.
That is the last Phillies player to go through a season of at least 488 plate appearances with an OPS under .600.
He hit .219 with 0 HR and only 15 extra base hits for the entire season. He didn’t hit a single home-run.
Why is this relevant? Because for the last 15 games, and the last 488 plate appearances by position players, the Phillies as a whole, have been 1986 Steve Jeltz.
They aspire to be 1998 Desi Relaford. They dream of being 1991 Dickie Thon. But alas, they aren’t that caliber of team right now. Right now, they are 1986 Steve Jeltz.
The funk the Phillies are in right now is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. There isn’t a single player right now that isn’t in a deep slump, as you will see below. Over the last 15 games, we are 4-11 and have gone from several games up to several games back in the NL East. We are a perfect game away from being 3-12 in our last 15. And not even that perfect game could get this team going.
In keeping with the 1986 theme, I used what was probably considered a pretty awesome font back then for the chart that shows the Phillies performance over the last 15 games. This is sorted by reverse OPS, so the players hitting the worst are at the top.
So how is this happening? How can everybody be SO bad for such an extended stretch? A couple theories…
- It’s not the “sign-stealing” conspiracy theory. There is no way the Phillies were successfully stealing signs for the last 3 years and now all of sudden they aren’t and they all actually suck.
- I think the back-to-back knuckleballers screwed us up. There are countless quotes from hitters saying that knuckleballers can do this. I’m not sure why, but there is evidence.
- I think that Rollins and Polanco being out is forcing the middle of the line-up to press a little when they don’t have to.
- I think that Utley might be hurt, and Ruiz is hurt.
- I think that Werth and Howard are both prone to stretches like this to begin with.
- I have no idea what Victorino’s problem is.
So what is the fix?
Aside from maybe sending Ben Francisco down to the minors and calling up John Mayberry, there’s not really much the Phillies can do but ride this out. They need Rollins and Polanco back, and they need just one or two guys to start hitting. They will get out of this, but the question is, will it be too late?
This next 16 games stretch is critical. They are playing some of the best teams in baseball (SD, FLA, BOS, NYY, MIN) and they NEED to come out of it at least 8-8. If they continue to slump, they could be buried enough that it will be tough to come back, especially the way the Braves are going. It all starts tomorrow night with Halladay, hopefully they can press the reset button.
Prospect Update: The Jon Singleton hype-train is going full steam ahead. Only 21 games into his professional career above the Gulf Coast League, and he’s already getting national press. As I wrote in the comments the other day, Ken Rosenthal quoted a scout as saying he’s the best HS hitter he’s seen in the SAL since Ian Stewart and before that Manny Ramirez. Jayson Stark on ESPN Radio said that one scout (perhaps the same one) told him he’s the best 18-year old hitter he’s seen since Ramirez, and another told him that (quoting Stark here) “this is the best minor leaguer I have seen this season, and he’s going to be the best minor leaguer I see all season.” Yikes, some high praise indeed.
Series Preview: San Diego Padres at Phillies
Pitching Probables
Friday (7:05): Halladay vs. RHP Mat Latos
Saturday (7:05): Moyer vs. RHP Jon Garland
Sunday (1:35): Blanton vs. RHP Kevin Correia
Monday (7:05): Hamels vs. LHP Wade LeBlanc
3 Questions for the Series (aside from the obvious, can we actually score?)
- How long before Roy Halladay allows his first base-runner?
- Can the Padres really be this good?
- How will the fans treat the team if things don’t improve?
Series Prediction
I think this is it. I think it HAS to be it. I’ve seen this team do too many good things the last 3 years to think that we can keep going like this much longer. The Padres are not as good as their record would indicate, the home crowd could fire these guys up a little and Halladay pitching well on Friday could get some momentum going. I’m choosing to be positive and predict that the Phils will take 3 of 4 here and start moving in the right direction again.
Another question: Will the home game sellout streak come to an end on this homestead if the Phillies keep SUCKING?
Pete, Phils also signed Willy Tavares today:
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Phillies_sign_Taveras_to_minor-league_deal.html#axzz0po6OJzhx
Is this the end of the Greg Dobbs era? Tavares is a puss but the dude can steal some bags and isn’t too far removed from his prime.
/ talking myself into Wily Taveras
//has it really gotten this bad??
Stu-
I don’t think it will affect the streak – I’m pretty sure most of the games are sold out already, and the Phils (or any professional sports team) don’t exactly give out refunds.
I don’t think Tavares will be up with the big club anytime soon. DeWayne Wise opted-out of his deal so we just needed a CF in AAA. However, I could see him being a defensive replacement and pinch-runner when rosters expand.
They’ve got the opposing teams comps available right now for Friday and Saturday (usually section 124)
If you had told me two months ago (or even two weeks ago) that the Phillies would be 3 games back of the division lead and the padres would be 11 games over .500 on June 4 I would have assumed I would have thought I fell asleep and woke up in 1998.
This Braves series really debunked my theory on the Phillies that whenever they are slumping it takes real competition to pull them out of it, it’s always seemed to me that they thrive when they are asked for the very best they can muster.
Well, Kendrick’s looking a little better…
Mr. Uppercut returns; is licking his chops over Phillies’ bandbox:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/jun/03/philadelphias-brotherly-love-unconditional-stairs/
Ross Gload owns Mat Latos: .500 lifetime, 1 for 2. Pencil him in.
If Phillies lose tonight with their perfect Ace on hill, Charlie’s going to turn over his post-game Nutri-system platter and go back to hot dogs & baked beans with large helpings of potato salad on the side. Only so many diets a man can take at one time.
Manuel’s starting to get grumpy like old-schooler Bob Skinner did in ’69 when Richie Allen was behaviorally insisting on a new address and
literally toeing his own lines in the infield dirt around 1st base: Boo, Mom, Oct 1, Coke. Ex-Marine Skinner quit in utter frustration over Richie Allen’s rebellious ways and Carpenter management’s coddling and enabling (as he saw it) in early August at the 108 game milepost (after naively and presumptively saying to a reporter when he first took the job that he’d like to have 8 Richie Allens).
@ jjg
great link, that article rings true, Stairs could walk anywhere in Philly and be treated like a hero.
Glad you liked it, Angelo. Too bad Black pulled him last night on pitching change. Would have liked seeing his matchup vs. Romero in that situation. Benched by “the book.”
There is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture……
You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to the Outer Limits.
Man oh man it has been a looooong time since I’ve seen the Phils do anything remotely close to what they just did————4 straight hits, getting Howard over and home from 2nd with two fly balls, scoring 4 runs————in the bottom of the 3rd.
Jamie Moyer won his 100th big league game tonight after the age of 40.
Nolan Ryan won 72.
Ryan pitched until he was 46. His winningest total in a season in that time frame (40 plus to retirement) was 16, a total duplicated by Moyer with the Phillies.
Ryan’s average season over the course of his career was 14 wins, 13 losses. Jamie Moyer’s average season is 14 wins, and 10 losses.
I’m not really suggesting anything, except maybe to say that Jamie Moyer has really caught my attention with his recent work.
KB: I feel Moyer goes under-appreciated for the body of work he’s putting up over the last 5-6 yrs. some credit for the phils being a good club (wins) but he’s done really well. he has given consistency (albeit not a very high level of performance) and has battled. 2 things you see less and less with hurlers these days. so while the usual complaints go up, when he gets his customary (1 in every 6 starts) shelling when he’s off, I recognize how limited he is and how much of his game is just effort and competitiveness.
i really respect that and the fact that he wants to pitch forever. thats why this article by Jayson Stark kinda pissed me off.
he’s my old-salt-of-the-game-blue-collar-version-of-Kobe-Bryant.
Regarding Stark’s assumed topic, as opposed to it possibly being editor assigned, I look at it like this. When the Phils lost their 10,000th game, I think it was during this stretch of greatness we’re in, i.e, 2007-on. Assuming that’s correct, some people probably wrote about it like it was a big deal, as opposed to some of the great things currently going on in the organization. Maybe that says something about their personality. Fact is, since some point, be it Ruly Carpenter took over from Bob, or the start of divisional play in 1969, or wherever you want to establish the line, the Phils have a very representative record of success compared to even the storied franchises like the Yanks, Dodgers, and Cards who by and large have long winning histories. Matter of how you want to look at it. The story is the entire picture, good and bad included, but I would almost be inclined to barely consdier this home run king angle at this point considering the guy’s 47, off 3 post season surgeries, given up for dead as a player by many
(me included) and has overcome all that to pitch well for about a 5 week stretch now. Included in that is 4 straight starts now totaling 27 innings of no home runs allowed. And 6 walks in that same equivalent of 3 complete games. Since the mid point of that Sunday night comeback against Santana, Moyer hasn’t quite been an all star, but he’s been a lot more than a home run giving up has been.
Just as John Wooden was months from his 100th birthday, Moyer is now months from the 20th anniversary of his first release from an MLB club, which included this 2 year run…
Released by Rangers, Nov. 13, 1990
Released by Cardinals, Oct. 14, 1991
Released by Cubs, March 30, 1992
Released by Tigers, Dec. 8, 1992
And he’s still pitching and lately doing it well.
They are playing some of the best teams in baseball (SD, FLA, BOS, NYY, MIN) and they NEED to come out of it at least 8-8.>>
It would have been nice if I wrote this before being 2 games into this, but the fact is, in my opinion, horifically meaningless in the overall scheme though it may be, I wasn’t sure coming home off that equally horrific road trip was the answer.
But…
First, this perhaps past stretch of bad baseball ended the minute Phillyfan’s statement of fortunate to win 5 of the next 16 hit the presses. His usual as the wind blows predictions (best offense since World War 2 based on first 3 games of the year, Braves a Triple A team based on a bad stretch as 2 examples) are often a breeze beind the historically proven good streaks and bad streaks don’t last forever.
And I’m not intending to pick on him, its just that results that don’t last forever almost always are ready to turn when the current trend sucks some people into thinking things are long term.
Secondly, while 1979s do occur (Phils were not a playoff performing, let alone standing club despite acquiring Pete and sucked surrounded by glorious years of 76-81 all around that 1 year), here is something to consider.
Last September, when the Phils played like it was a federal offesne to move baserunners, they lowlighted the stretch by losing 4 in a row to the woebegone Houston Astros. They did kinda barely hang on to win the division, but then played .600 baseball against what would have been more certifiable as a list of best teams in baseball (Rox, Dodgers and Yanks. 9-6, if you are scoring at home).
There aren’t any best teams in baseball anymore, but that’s a story for another time and place. But the fact is, it’s pushing it to draw that conclusion when the Padres and Marlins are in this group. The Pads are cool, but the fact is we’re only barely past a third of the season.
More power to them for their start. And the Fish, always a bunch worth respecting are as struggling as any seeminly good club is. They could still have a great 2nd half and be World Champs, but they need to be a lot different to get on that train. The 3 AL clubs are pretty good, no question, but I guarantee you that they aren’t any more anxious to face the 2 time NL champion sleeping giant no matter how bad that road trip was any more than we might be them.
Pitching matchups as they are, while Joe Blanton doesn’t currently inspire much confidence, we can now have some confidence in sweepinng this first series and with help from one of the actual best teams in baseball, the Dodgers, getting back to dogfight position with the Braves. The Dodgers, by the way, were as bad as the Phils recently at the start of the season. Probably even worse, if that’s possible.
The Phils will be okay. Time will tell whether its just okay, or fine. But by the time we get back into interleaguw and face the end of this stretch, we may be back to “normal”. The only indisputable fact about baseball is its a long season.
Ken Bland, So what’s your point? Did you appreciate Stark’s article based on facts, or not? That Phils’ 10,000 losses was chronicled and given perspective is the result of dutiful reporting, not of some personality flaw as you insinuate. To ostrich or keep submerged such preeminent and rare performance aggregation by a prominent local company and civic treasure would be journalistic negligence. Same goes for antique Moyer’s mountainous accrual of gopher balls and his nearness to Robert’s record. Disregarding “the mountain” and its implications or significance would be a disservice to readers. Stark was research true, player regarding and whimsically creative in doing his job. That he hung some statistical laundry on the line of a guy
hauling in 8 million this year for playing in 35 or so baseball games in the cushiest of conditions is informative entertainment, not an affront. The alternative is Wheeler and McCarthy yappy “reportage” whose subtext is always “rah, rah, rah.” To compare Jaime Moyer with John Wooden in any sense today is a cheap trick.
compare Jaime Moyer with John Wooden in any sense today is a cheap trick. >>
Moyer is within a little better than a half season of having a good year 20 full years after his first of FOUR releases in a 2 year stretch. That would be a remarkable achievement.
Wooden was only a few months from of living a full 100 year cycle. That would have been a remarkable achievement (not that 99.5 is bad, mind you).
It’s really not tricky at all, let alone cheap.
I disagree. So be it.
We won two in a row (but not lost a tough one) so I can end my self-imposed hiatus to posting.
The Resign Werth jabber sure has settled down. Anybody still want to give him 14-15 mill per?
It is like this team was on roids and everybody cycled off at the same time. Never seen such a dramatic loss of power. They have a tough time hitting homers in the easiest park in b-ball now. Even werth’s yesterday was an only-in-the-bank homer.
a couple quick venting points so I can get on with the rest of my day…
First, this perhaps past stretch of bad baseball ended the minute Phillyfan’s statement of fortunate to win 5 of the next 16 hit the presses. His usual as the wind blows predictions (best offense since World War 2 based on first 3 games of the year, Braves a Triple A team based on a bad stretch as 2 examples) are often a breeze beind the historically proven good streaks and bad streaks don’t last forever.
And I’m not intending to pick on him,>>
Valid observation Ken. I do tend to sell stocks low and buy stocks high. Hopefully this will be all the sweeter when we win the WS again this year. But schedules in baseball are alot like in the NFL. So much of your success can depend on how the other team is playing when you face them. It is quite possible that the Yanks and Twins will be cooling off and we can play like we are now (against the Padres, which still isn’t that good) and go 8-8. I do disagree with Pete though on having to go 8-8 to stay in the race. We won’t even be at the half-way point yet and still in June after this stretch. Even if we go 5-11 and we are 7 games back I still would expect we win the division. (Remember, to lose much ground Atlanta would have to smoke mostly the same teams – highly unlikely) So much season left to play. When rollins and Madsen get back and Howard finds that power stroke in July per usual, this team can do a 45-20 run without much of a problem. Utley is my only concern long-term. the starting pitching is there. Has anyone noticed the bullpen shaping up?
one game at a time. we still have opportunity to take 3 tomorrow.
am just happy they have a chance to win a series.
Pete: considering how often you bring up the topic, i’d say you’re experiencing what 08 sixers fans call the Salmi-fever. makes you want to throw the TV out and turn on the radio?
<<The Phillies demoted Phillippe Aumont from Double-A back to High-A after a disastrous start to the season, tweets Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner. Aumont was part of the Roy Halladay-Cliff Lee blockbuster.>>
<<I disagree. So be it.>>
That reminds me of Tommy Lee Jones way underwater, gun pointed at him, and responding emphatically to one Harrison Fordwho went over his criminal resume with the Marshal..
“I
Don’t
Care.”
More cheapness for your reading plaisir.
Personally, I wouldn’t know what to say about Jayson Werth other than undoubtedly by coincidence, soon as I ran out of praise for him, and I threw a ton his way, the background music went to oops there goes another apple tree
plunk, ker plunk.
I’m not trying to be funny, I just honestly don’t know what to say about his recent dropoff.
Jimenez continued the greatest start by a Rockies pitcher, if not any pitcher, with Sunday’s performance. He improved to 11-1 with a 0.93 ERA. Only Dutch Leonard of the 1914 Boston Red Sox had a lower ERA (0.83) after 12 starts, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. >>
There’s living the dream, and then there’s really living the dream.
Here’s the deal on the Dutchman for you young pups that don’t remember his greatness. He won 19 games that year, throwing 224 innings in his 2nd year in the majors, including 7 shutouts. That 19 win card would be his best in an 11 year career. In his 3rd year, he tossed a 3 hit shutout against the NL champion Phillies in the World Series.
If one thing comes out of checking the Dutchman’s record, its that he had a good career, but his 12 start run was a hot streak. I mean, nobody pitches like this forever anyway, but its a reminder that Ubaldo will eventually prove human again. Might have started yesterday. He gave up 2 earned runs.
I will now take 1 more attempt at procrastinating the start of my (and no doubt yours) favorite day of the week.
This thread will no doubt close out soon as the Pads leave town and a Fishy thread will appear. But in evaluating to date, its been an interesting thread.
The greatness of Steve Jeltz led off, and before it was over, it wound up including awe of one Ubaldo Jimenez, a perhaps rightful benching of Jayson Werthlessthanheusedtobe, Jamie Moyer, who could pitch in an old timers game and wouldn’t nobody know the difference, another accurate disrobing of the lack of skill set of one Tom McCarthy, who has had the hardest shoes to fill since Madonna tried to replace Marilyn Monroe as a sex symbol, Richard Allen’s in the dirt penmanship, and a soon to be deceased 60 years dead Dutch Leonard.
That’s called diversity.
CHEAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i dunno why ppl are surprised Werth is struggling. he was gonna stay hot forever? Werth has always been swing hard till your knees buckle and PT HR/strikeout machine, that hasnt changed, but he’s not taking as many pitches as he always does.
if mr. perfect Utley can go into a slump, what the heck are we being concerned about with Werth.
Howard is picking it up slowly. hope the warmer air begins to up our run totals some.
has anyone noticed how the bottom of the order has been rejuvenated? they are not automatic outs anymore, heck if Ibanez didnt ground out into so many double plays, we might be scoring more.