Brotherly Glove beat me to it here, and I’m sure others will do similar stories, but here is my take on today’s winter meeting development that the Phillies have balked at J-Roll’s insistence on a 5-year deal and have turned their attention to 3B Aramis Ramirez while exploring trades for Placido Polanco.
The basic question I want to answer (ignoring the implications of a long-term deal for Aramis or J-Roll for the moment) is, which tandem makes us better in 2012: Ramirez/Galvis or Rollins/Polanco?
Let’s start by taking a look at our trusty WAR – looking at the offensive and defensive impact of this move. I’m just using WAR numbers from last year.
For Galvis, I’m using really poor offensive numbers (using Wilson Valdez’ numbers from last year) and using a 10th-15th ranked defensive shortstop as Galvis’ reputation is that he is an exceptional defensive player. Essentially the assumption is that if Galvis is THAT bad, we’ll just put Valdez in there.
So overall, the final numbers are almost the same (I didn’t bother with replacement level stuff since in this case we KNOW the ACTUAL replacements) – but the breakdown is interesting.
Aramis Ramirez represents a giant upgrade offensively. His 28 runs batting would have easily led our team last year (Howard, 20) – and we know that the reason we stalled at the end of the year was our bats. Rollins was a league average player with his bat last year, and Polanco was well below average. Even if Galvis is horrendous, it will likely still be a net positive.
On the other hand, almost all of that value is off-set by base-running and defense. While right now the left side of our infield had a value of 18 runs, or 1.8 wins defensively last year, a Ramirez/Galvis combo would likely be below average.
All things considered, and ignoring my desire to see Rollins finish his career as a Phillie, I find myself leaning towards the Ramirez/Galvis (or Valdez, or Alex Gonzalez, or Jason Bartlett or Mini Mart) combo for a couple reasons…
- This team flat out needs hitting.
- When it comes to the playoffs, I feel like a big bat will have more impact that a poor glove will detract. Jimmy Rollins over the last has been worth -22 runs batting. He’s just not a good hitter. We’ve had two straight years of playoff exits because bats fell silent – we need to give ourselves as much ammo as possible.
- Third base is going to be a problem next year either way if Polanco is gone. We have absolutely NOTHING in the minors ready to go and the free agent market doesn’t look like it will have anyone worthwhile.
2. Chase Utley, 2B
3. Hunter Pence, RF
4. Ryan Howard, 1B
5. Aramis Ramirez, 3B
As I’ve posted before, I’m hoping they sign A Ram. It would give them a balanced middle of the order with two power lefties and two power righties. I have loved watching rollins all these years but he wants to get paid like it’s 2007. He’s proven the last 2-3 years that he is a league average hitter with plus speed and defense. I would love to bring rollins back but for a price closer to 3 years 20 mil. We could bring in a veteran SS (Bartlett) to compete with Galvis.
I really like Bartlett. As those dipshits Ryan Theriot and Skip Schumaker proved, having some scrappy hitter to work the count and slap singles at a middle infield position is key. Bartlett is that scrappy hitter.
If the Phils sign A Ram and trade Polanco, let’s get serious. No way is Galvis the starter come opening day.
You’d have to consider that a vet SS with a guaranteed starting spot on the Phillies will entice a savvy vet to join the club.
Also, you aren’t even mentioning LAYYYYYYYYYYYNCE NIX!
As a side note, if we did sign Ramirez I would like to see Polly stay. We could use a good sub because we wouldn’t be getting any younger with A Ram. He could fill in at 3rd and 2nd to give days off. Utley could also move over to 1st some days while Howard is still recovering. We probably wouldn’t get anything for Polly in a trade with the year he had last year. And we’d probably have to eat some salary in a trade. Just keep him as a super utility
As for Nix…… I don’t understand why he was guaranteed anything more than a minor league deal with a camp invite. I have nothing against the guy but a two year contract???? This is exactly like Brian Schnieder two years ago.
We would not be able to keep Polanco on the bench. We only have room for one more bench guy and whoever that player ends up being (probably Martinez or Valdez), he needs to be able to play shortstop. As far as I know, Polanco can not.
Polly, healthy, is an offensive asset. But the fact is, that asset definition is defined within being a definite lack of extra base power. And I must admit, there were a lot of times I wondered last year how the club would have looked had they signed Beltre. He wasn’t really a viable candidate for financial reasons when Plac came back, but essentially this simplifies to a had a chance (money aside) to improve the corner before, and did so only to a degree over Feliz. Now, the availability of another power capable 3B presents itself again, do you want to pass a 2nd time. The farm system suggests you don’t. Even making a switch at shortsop, which is maybe close to even defensively (some degree of improved athleticism take away experience), Ramirez probably is the more exciting possibility.
Headed to the winter meetings tomorrow. Looking forward to the first time experience.
you should have done an AL lineup with Thome haha
We have to MUST ! change our lineup. We’ve come up flat too many times and it’s just time to change some of the major parts. Personally I’d prefer to unload Utley and keep Rollins and get A. Ram, but that just isn’t possible. If we can keep Rollins and get A. Ram, I’m all for it, otherwise A. Ram/Valdez is a better way forward.
PS I heard Madsen may take 1yr arb with the Phillies ?? any news on this ?
PS I heard Madsen may take 1yr arb with the Phillies ?? any news on this ?>>
I’m not too into absolutes. Specially over things I can’t control. Specially since a couple people I know who are pretty sharp see Madson and arbitration as possible. Lord knows how, but they do.
But I’m here to tell you that it would be the absolute shock of the year if Madson opts for arbitration.
Arbitrating is synonomous with accepting a 1 year contract on sure to be agreed upon terms. The only possible benefit to it for Madson would be to showcase his closing skills for a less saturated market next year. He’d have zero chance to do that here. Worse case scenario is he makes 8 mil per 3 times over before spring training. That guarantee matches poorly against a possible 9 mil one time in arbitration carrying injury riisk off the short term contract.
People can talk all they want about closer gigs drying up. Toronto evaporated today, following the Rangers, Fish, and Phillies. Doesn’t even matter that there’s now a fraction of the amount of openings there were a month ago. This guy’s agent is outstanding at playing the market. If you think he won’t worse case scenario talk somebody into altering their closer to a set up guy, and creating a Madson to Lidge, Rivera to Wettland type situation, if it even comes to that, you are dead wrong. And Boras will talk whoever signs Madson into a minimum of 8 mil times 3 years.
Case closed. Unless there’s something I’m completely missing, which would make me wait with baited breath to hear the completely unseen method to what would be a zero sense decision.
Today was one of the great days in baseball history.
Hell, they all are, but this one was really special.
When XM Radio opens (ed) their baseball play by play coverage, they use the no better baseball spokesman voice of Tom Lasorda, who talks about some people see men playing a boys game, but you and I seeing something much different. God damed right, Tommy. We see depth. Relavance to the many, many past baseball games that might be matched with a rare perfect game, a 4 homerun game (or even an over the hill Jason Giambi at least getting a 4th at bat crack at it). Or the infrequent never saw it before like a Willie Valdez throwing a 19th inning winner, or before your glued to the tube eyes watching a better than perfect script of the last day of this past season.
It’s personal. Very personal. You walk into the Bank, or any of the other current event museums hosting The Great Game, and you may watch the same field action as 40,000 other sucked in peeps, but it holds special meaning to you.
And today was that day for me.
Combined with a personal correction for 3 sporting events I would have could have and should have attended but chose not to on forgettable days, and a deep seeded appreciation of this game, I mustered up the courage today to battle traffic, no regitration, and really no idea what I’d see to attend the winter meetings. You go to a museum, and it’s fascinating to see what is history, that before you. You go to the Kennedy Museum, and see things you remember, and it’s a unique experience to see a museum environment of events you lived. But today was like a museum of living, breathing, walking exhibits.
You start walking around, and get in conversations with all sorts of people. A 40 year old guy, from Smalltown Texas, stuck in a job that sponsors little passion, seeking luck at the job fair portion of the program, based on a passion for the game that enabled him to escape the local football mentality well enough to rap off the memebers of the 1980 Phillies like he saw them play 10 minutes ago. John Kruk, who understands the passion, and takes time from a conversation to acknowledge the presence of a Phillies jacket so old it dates back to when The Krukker was actually an athlete, and not just a ballplayer. Kevin Kennedy, taking time to assess the Phillies shortstop situation, and things he’d never say on the air about personalities of the game. Hall of Famer Peter Gammons, expressing his soul about how he loves the game more now than 20 and 40 years ago, when maybe it was actually a game, or sport, because he knows more about it now.
No runs today. No records broken. But a day of pure greatness. Beisbol, indeed, been very, very good to me.
The Mystery team is playing again tonight. Cards, Fish, and the Mystery team all vying for Albert “In Decline” Pujols.
I really should write a post about the history of The Mystery team, and the many fine, fine players they have had over the years. Nice ballclub.
This Albert stuff’s kinda cool. Kinda like Cliff night last year. Kinda. Not near the same versted interest. But cool stuff nonetheless.
Time for a little blue light shoopers special and an out of season pre season preview. You get what you pay for, he prefaced, in full disclosure preview. Bout as stupid as pre season predictions in a day and age of 49 trade deadlines, but what the hey.
Lets talk Miami Marlins baseball, and what they’d be if they sign The Decline Master. Check that, The Already Rich, and soon to be Tres Rich Decline Master.
I mean, Albert’s not stupid enough to sign with them. Jose has great athletic skills, but it’s not like he’s a great defender. He’s good. He ain’t none of Jimmy Shortstop, though. Hanley. Now there’s a character of the ages for you. if you speak English, he tells you he’ll do what the club wants, which is tanamount to a rendition of Peaches and Herb’s “Reunited, and it feels soooo Good” sequentially called “Renegotiate, and I’ll Play Where You want.” To Espanol dabblers, he takes after Garry Templeton’s “If I ain’t startin, I ain’t departin,” and says I ain’t changing no position, or however you say ain’t in Espanol. CNN is reporting that Han Ram isn’t exactly a great defender either. And this fine ballclub, a season ticket base of flies until they build this if we build it they might come palace with investigated funding, for cryin’ out loud, is also trying for every other free agent in history, like Mark Buehrle, who has now lost velocity on his fastball 4, count em quatre years in a row, and could break a plane of glass slower than Brad Lidge. How would that guy look with a less than stellar defense when he cashes his huge checks. Or maybe they sign CJ Wilson, who probably could get Ryan Howard out in the last game of a final playoff game of the year.
Yeah, they got Josh. Josh “I’m healthy Sometimes” Johnson. And maybe Heath Bell can finally get his missed bat count back up to where he’s worth minimum wage.
Sign that dotted line, Albert. And maybe you do win. I remember winning an on paper championship around here last year. It don’t feel too good. But for career collections of over 3 freaking hundred mil, what the hey. I’d probably do the same thing.
Please do not give away Domonic Brown for Gio Gonzalez
The front office’s apparent hatred for Brown is completely baffling to me
Don’t ya have to admit that fundamentally, he should be further along than he is? I know of at least 1 person in the organization that says that “he doesn’t have Mayberry’s drive.” So we might think higher of DB than they do, but our positivity is (well, mine is, I’ll just speak for me) more based on potential, which to me, kinda pretty much kills the surprise and bafflement of it.
I’d hate to see Dom go, but the worst part is this makes you wonder what the hell is going on with Cole, for cryin’ out loud. I mean Gio is really good (haven’t looked at his numbers to fully understand that) but you’d think if Gio does come, and who knows how many legs this has, it sure doesn’t uptick expectations of Cole sticking beyond the year.
I don’t think so. He only has 246 MLB ABs.
I read many things when he was in the minors about him having a good work ethic.
I don’t see the benefit of him playing another minor league season. He needs MLB AB’s. If he makes some mistakes in the field, so be it – put a defensive replacement in at the end of games.
What jumped out to me this past year is his swing is incredibly long, longer than Howard’s. He will be picked apart if he doesn’t shorten that swing. I can’t see how he could hit consistently with how refined pitchers are these days with that swing. And if he has to shorten his swing, does he have the power we need from a corner outfielder? Throw in the fielding challenges and now his age, and he is past the “prime prospect” phase. If we could get Gio for him and another very low minor leaguer, I would do it in a second.
I hate to say it, but I have the same thoughts about his swing. He puts himself at a serious disadvantage by taking such a long approach to the ball. His plate discipline may help him overcome that somewhat, but I have a hard time seeing him as an elite hitting prospect based on his swing.
I don’t mean to say that he’s a bust, by the way. Just that he needs to admit to himself what he needs to work on, and get to work on it. And that he should be in he majors reinforcing bad habits until he makes the correction. I think they’re taking te right approach by holding him back another year.
Just my opinion of course but I think there’s just not any room for Brown right now – Mayberry happened to become somewhat of the “it” guy last season. It could be a while before there’s a spot for Brown and in the meantime there’s more pressing needs that he could help attain.
For now, the Gio thing seems put to rest and Cole still a Phillie.
Can I vote for Pujols and David Wright???
From mlbtr:
Reports of a 10-year, $220MM offer from the Cardinals may not be accurate, and ESPN’s Jayson Stark reported there is indeed an unknown third team in the mix that would need to trade an established first baseman to clear room for The Machine.
It sure sounds like Ruben. All joking aside after the way the last off-seasons have gone I’m just waiting for him to swoop in for the prize of the off-season. I know it’s not realistic to expect it. I hope this doesn’t spur one of the Howard/Pujols/Dunn debates. That’s not my intention. It has been rehashed
My guess is it’s the Yankees trying to unload Tex. They are the only team with enough money that has a 1B under serious contract.
We could TRY to unload Howard, but teams would laugh at us. 5 years, $125 million left and a busted achilles.
Looks like we are going to re-sign Rollins. Not a big fan of the move, even if the contract is fairly valued. Aside from his injury history, not being a leader, and constant pop-ups to shallow center, I just think this team is getting a bit stale and that was the obvious place to make a move. Even if his replacement isn’t as “good” – sometimes fresh face/attitude can positively impact everyone. Galvis/journeyman plus a Aramis signing would have been just what the doctor ordered.
I don’t liken this to the Yankee-Jeter scenario at all because while Jeter has been Mr. Yankee for 15 years, I don’t see Rollins that way. He wasn’t/isn’t would I would call a clubhouse or on-field leader in the way Jeter was in his prime, which is alot of what Jeter was paid for in last year’s contract. I enjoyed his predictions in 2007 but he has a bit of a punk to him – not hustling on occasion, broads a bit too much for me. He was simply a very good player, bordering great, in his prime, but he isn’t anymore. He was paid nicely for his talents, now time to cut the cord.
Of course, we could still sign Aramis, which would make the Rollins signing OK with me. But if we are looking at going into next year with both Rollins and Polanco everyday, I think we are asking for trouble when it comes to the ultimate goal of in winning a world title. Sure, we would be good enough to win the wild card or division, but what is the reasoning to think we could change the trend of post-season regression.
It’ll be interesting to see how much interest the Cards have in regrouping by directing attention to Jimmy’s availability. I’m sure it will get some public pondering. I’d tend to think this may perk some interest in Carlos Beltran in St. Louis. Now the extent of that interest, I don’t know.
I’m excited for Pujols, and the Angels. It’d be a nice landing spot for Ryan Madson. The execution of a negotiation by Dan Lezano, Jimmy’s agent, and of course the highly principled Pujols appears in retrospect to have been letter perfect from the beginning. That said, I can’t help but think of Ruly Carpenter again today. He got out because of the madness many millions, and boy do I mean many, ago. But the bottom line is I’m truly happy for Albert. It’s a little out of balance that the Angels will pay for his having been underpaid (retrospect) for the next 10 years, but when you come down to it, for his greatness in the game, it seems kinda sorta okay at least for Albert to be looking at career earnings of 360 million or so. Strange as it seems.
Waste of space that this is, especially since I don’t know how the odds changed today, WS faves for ’12, and this includes updated after this mornings Angel acquisitions, Bodog has these WS odds…
Phils 9/2
Yanks 13/2
BoSox 17/2
Halos 12/1
Tigers 14/1 Giants same
Rangers 16/1
Fish 18/1 as are Cards and Tampa
Braves and Dbacks 20/1
Brewers 22/1
Cardinal regular season win o/u 84 (guessing that couldn’t have dropped by more than 5 games)
Nuevo loco extendido remuneracion lesivo por beisbol.
[New crazy extended compensation detrimental for baseball.]
Pujols, Reyes, Papelbon, Lee, Howard, Sabathia, Santana, Rodriguez, agents, owners:
gravy train riders, conductors and engineers.
Alllllllll uh-board. (Tweet me in St. Louie.)
According to Ken Rosenthal, the Cardinals are looking to resign Furcal. That could mean, Jimmy will be Home For Christmas (in Philly)!
They said it…..
Bud Selig, May, 2009, in the Arizona Republic….
“Our minor league testing program is now in it’s 9th year, and that means that all the great young players in baseball, from Ryan Howard, to Ryan Braun have been tested for 9 years.”
Not that I’m trying to implicate anyone, but that checks in as a potentially interesting quote, to say the least.
Entire MLB thinks signing Jimmy to 3yrs is a bad idea. So what is Rubin seeing that no one else does ? Offer Jimmy 2 years.