Ryan Howard, Alex Rodriguez, Justin Morneau, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, David Wright, Magglio Ordonez, Lance Berkman, David Ortiz, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday.
That’s a list of the only players that have driven in more runs than the newest Phillie, Raul Ibanez, has in the last 3 years.
Ibanez became the first big move of Ruben Amaro’s tenure when he signed a 3-year, $30 million deal, officially ending the Pat Burrell era in Philadelphia. Because of this, the first question in everyone’s head will likely be the same: is Ibanez better than Burrell? Let’s compare their numbers over the last 3 seasons, where both players have been very consistent.
Alright, so what are we looking at here. Ibanez is a better pure hitter, as evidenced by his higher BA and lower K’s. Burrell seems to have more power with more HR and a higher SLG%. Burrell also drew more walks and had a higher on-base percentage. In terms of run production, Ibanez is one of the most underrated players in the league in that category, averaging 113 RBI over the last 3 seasons.
While both are good players, Ibanez is slightly better and is certainly a better fit for this line-up. We need less strikeouts and more contact hitters to put the ball in play and Ibanez will provide that. Ibanez seems to be much more aggressive in RBI situations, while Burrell was often content with a walk (though he improved upon this in the last couple years). Not only is Ibanez aggressive, but he is very, very successful. Over the last 4 years, with runners in scoring position, he has hit .327, .319, .337 and .298. Offensively, Ibanez is an improvement over Burrell. Not gigantic, but an improvement.
Now, the concerns.
He’s a lefty, and he’s old (turning 37 in June).
Ibanez was actually better against lefties last season, hitting .305. In the 3 years prior, he wasn’t as good, but still above average for a lefty, hitting .256, .243 and .275. Like Chase Utley, he will not be a liability against LHP and with his bat in the line-up, we can put together a ridiculous, almost all-lefty lineup of Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, Ibanez, Dobbs, Jenkins and Ruiz against certain right handed pitchers.
Yes, he’s old, but his work ethic has been well-documented. After reading some Seattle articles on him, it is clear that he is a leader that will teach the young players and challenge the veterans. He played all 162 games for the Mariners last year, “and after every game, he hit the weight room to work out.”
Despite the positives, it does appear that one thing that will not change from Burrell to Ibanez is the streakiness (real word?) of his play. Looking at his monthly splits, he seems to have good months and bad months, and the fan base in Seattle would sometimes get frustrated with him during slumps. That being said, he was the best hitter on those teams, and will be the 3-4th best hitter on this team, so hopefully the lack of pressure to produce could help him avoid those swoons.
Overall, it’s an upgrade on offense. 3 years, $30 million is a lot of money, and I’m not sure what year 3 will bring, but it’s nice to see the Phillies add on some payroll after winning the title. Furthermore, it’s a short contract and Michael Taylor and/or Dominic Brown should be ready to step in once he’s gone. Next step? Fill out the rotation. Hopefully the Yankees sign Burnett, the Red Sox sign Teixeira, and suddenly Derek Lowe has no 4-year offers out there. Adding Lowe and Ibanez would make us a legit threat to repeat. You wonder if the size of this deal puts Lowe out of play, but it’s sure nice to think about, isn’t it?
So that’s my take… what do you guys think of this move?
I’m having a hard time deciding whether I am really happy with this pick up. I know I don’t hate it. We needed to fill the hole in the left. However, hes old and hes a lefty. We already struggled against lefties with Burrell. I know Ibanez hits well against lefties but it still makes it much easier for managers deciding what to do when they need to bring a reliever in. I was hoping for a righty to break up Utley and Howard. That way a manager may have to use either 3 relievers in a row (left, right, left) or be forced to pitch a left verse a right handed hitter sandwiched between Utley and Howard.
I recognize, however, there are almost no good righties available via free agency so I suppose this was about the best the phils could do. Hopefully he is an ageless wonder with the bat like Franko or Chipper (although he gets injured often). I think after writing this I am more satisfied with the pickup. Go Phils!!
Go Philadelphia Phillies..!! Hope that Ibanez would be of great help to the team..
One other thing I forgot to mention that I really like is his split stat of batting .444 with runners on third < 2 outs. 36 RBIs in 36 ABs (.429 in 2007). I can’t tell you how frustrated I was at times at how often the Phils left men on 3rd with less then two outs.
Not to mention his .400 avg when the bases are loaded. =) He might see this often batting 3rd or 5th.
another thing I didn’t mention…. I can’t wait for our 2010 line-up when we replace Feliz and Ruiz with Donald and Marson (hopefully)
What we are missing here is that Ibanez will cost around $7-8mil next year while Burrell cost $14.25m this year. This leaves a little extra cash to work outh other deals and arbitration. Overall, I hate to see Pat go, but if you can replace his numbers for have the money, you have to do it. It is a business afterall. We’re not cheap, but we’re not the Yankees or Red Sox.
jason -
My guess is that Amaro has a grand plan for a key signing later in offseason. All this talk about financial flexibility has me believing that he sees something that might shake things up. Lowe, Burnett, Sheets, Peavey. Let’s face it, he just saved half of the annual salary of one of those guys by swapping Ibanez for Burrell. He could do the same thing with Moyer and have saved three quarters of one of these starters’ annual salary.
He’s probably also learned a lot in the last decade by watching how the smaller profile signings of character players are what create winning teams.
It seems to me, if I were in Amaro’s place, I would go for it and try to run another WS Championship team out there in 2009. If he signs one pitcher of Lowe/Burnett caliber, you could slide the rest of the rotation down a spot and in essence create mismatches. Moyer, Blanton and ??? against 3, 4 and 5 spots in oposing rotations sounds like a winning plan to me. Certainly it stacks up with anyone else in the NL.
Sorry, I meant Meyers and Blanton above, not Moyer and Blanton.
However, now that I mention it, resign Moyer and go after an FA pitcher. Now Moyer can spend the last two years of his career pitching against AAA prospects and retreads in the 5 hole in the rotation.
@ Jason: “Now Moyer can spend the last two years of his career pitching against AAA prospects and retreads in the 5 hole in the rotation.”
A 5th starter doesn’t make 3rd starter money, which is what Moyer seems to be after. I’d rather give the Happ, Carrasco duo a shot and begin their development (or throw Kendrick there if they struggle). No need to have Moyer in the rotation as a 5th starter. If they sign a guy like Lowe, it likely spells the end for us re-signing Moyer.
Point taken. You do have to develop the future.
THe argument still applies to what you would do for Myers and Blanton by bumping them down in the rotation–if you can get a #2 starter on the market.
yes, no question they both become more effective.
First, I want to follow up on J Dubbz final post on the last thread. I’ll join the mutual admiration society and second the fact that this is, without a doubt, the best site around thanks to Pete, Dannie, and us, of course.
Next, Pete said, “Ibanez seems to be much more aggressive in RBI situations, while Burrell was often content with a walk”. This is a biggie for me. I mentioned an article from dugoutcentral.com that talked about how OBP, while important, is not the sole measure of success for an offensive player or a team. In the case of guys who hit in the middle of your lineup and who you are counting on to drive in runs, like Burrell (and Abreu before him), you really need a more aggressive approach when they are ahead in the count. The bottom line is that you need your run producers to be looking to drive in runs instead of just getting on base.
I also second Pete in saying that Jason’s point is a good one. Now the Phils need to show me that they will turn around and use this money they saved to bring in another solid contributor (if not Lowe).
Finally, after reading Drew’s comment, a weird thought ocurred to me. We have all been pretty adamant about the fact that we need another right-handed hitter to balance out our lineup, possibly split up Utley and Howard in the order, make us less vulnerable to left-handed relievers, force each opposing manager to be cautious as far as when to use his left handers out of the pen so as not to use up too many arms in one game, among other things. This got me thinking. What if we are looking at this the wrong way? Maybe having an all left-handed hitting lineup could actually work in our favor more times than not. Hear me out on this.
Like Pete said, “we can put together a ridiculous, almost all-lefty lineup of Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, Ibanez, Dobbs, Jenkins and Ruiz against certain right handed pitchers.” Nothing wrong with that, right?
Also, again like Pete said, Utley and Ibanez can hit lefties. That shouldn’t be such a great concern against left-handed starters. Rollins and Victorino are switch hitters. Plus, Werth is solid against lefties. Add in Feliz and Ruiz (as long as they give us something consistent) who also hit right-handed and that leaves us with Howard as the only guy in the lineup that we should expect to have significant difficulty with leftie starters.
The final piece of this puzzle, and where I really think that having an all leftie lineup will really benefit us, is when we get to late inning situations. We keep looking at it like we should go R-L-R-L-R-L so that the opposing manager can only use a leftie reliever for one hitter and then take him out. I understand that by having an all-lefty lineup every opposing manager will be able to bring in a leftie reliever and leave him out there, but think about this for a minute.
1) Most teams have only 2 lefties in the bullpen.
2) Of those 2 lefties, one of them is almost always a situational leftie who is only used to get one hitter here and there.
3) Most relievers pitch only one inning per outing.
4) There are limitations as to how heavily any reliever can be used, whether it be how many innings/pitches per game he throws or how many games in a row he is available.
So, by having a lineup loaded with leftie hitters, we should be able to exhaust the opponenets supply of leftie relievers pretty quickly. That goes for each individual game as well as for an entire series. Teams just don’t have that many lefties available to allow them to send one after another out to the mound in an attempt to negate our all leftie lineup for 9 innings in game after game.
I’m not saying we should go this route exclusively, but I really do think it would work for us a lot of the time. I know it sounds counterintuitive, if not half-witted, at first, but do me a favor. Please read what I wrote a couple times and think about it a bit before you hammer me, ok?
thanks guys,
hopefully we can get a couple new posters involved with the Phillies to see if we can keep up with the Sixers conversations!
one more negative about Ibanez. Defense is no better than Burrell’s.
Thank you for the memories Pat (and Elvis)! We wish you the best of luck wherever you go and you will always be welcomed in Philly nonetheless!!
My first reaction was “I’ll miss Pat’s walks”, until I remembered that they frustratingly never did anything with those walks in the first place with him batting in the five-hole. But that’s in the past now.
It sure looks like Ibanez is a better fit for this team, despite his lefty status. I can already hear the complaining about Chollie’s lineup cards next season. I’m also a bit afraid of the Johan situation, but I suppose we’ll see how that plays out. Ibanez will give us more doubles. I’m getting excited now. What’s his fielding like? While Pat wasn’t the greatest, he still had a rocket for an arm.
Good luck wherever you go, Pat.
I saw a post in another forum that talked about Ibanez being a liability based on his trouble “moving back on well-hit balls”. CBP seemingly takes this out of play since rarely does the LF play too shallow with such a short porch out in left. I could understand it to be troubling if we had a park such as PETCO that has all of that territory out there, but between the lack of territory and the ability for Victorino to cover as much ground as he does (and even Werth in rightfield), having a bigger bat hidden out in left won’t be as big as a deal. Besides, the man has roamed left-field for his whole career, this isn’t new for him, plus Burrell was so lead-footed and I don’t remember him getting beat because of his lack of speed on more than just a couple of occassions. I don’t see the defensive liability as being such a negative if the bat is there.
I found this, from John Heyman, a little while ago and thought I’d pass it along, for what it’s worth.
“The Phillies were working late Thursday night to try to lock up veteran left-hander Jamie Moyer. Moyer, 46, is believed likely to sign a two-year deal for about $15 million, though it’s uncertain whether anything with Moyer is completed.”
Maybe signing Ibanez sent a clear message to Moyer that the Phils will move on without him (as they have now done with Burrell), so he needs to agree on a deal now if he has any desire to stay here. Or maybe it’s just that no other team is stepping up with a guaranteed 2-year, $18 mil offer.
Eh. That wouldn’t be a terrible deal for Moyer, but I still would prefer we wait and see if we can Lowe on a reasonable deal if BOS and NYY bow out of bidding.
I would also prefer a one year deal for Moyer
Here are some numbers:
Last year Burrell had
377 PA with the bases empty
164 PA with one man on
86 PA with two on
11 PA with the bases loaded.
He came to bat with a total of 369 men on base, of which 182 were in scoring position.
Ibanez last year:
344 PA with the bases empty
256 PA with one on
86 PA with two on
16 PA with the bases loaded
He came to bat with a total of 476 men on, of which 225 were in scoring position.
Assuming Howard continues to hit lots of home runs and make lots of outs with relatively little in between, which I think is pretty likely, I expect Ibanez’s RBI numbers to drop a fair amount next year.
Pat the Bat will be missed, but ‘Ole Cement Legs in left field will not.
This is the start of a winning era here in Philadelphia where we have to weed out some of the old faithfuls (Burrell/Gordon/Moyer?) and welcome some new names as well as our home grown talent that will take this team to the level of the elites in baseball. Let’s get this team ready for our next championship and dynasty thereafter. One more piece to our pitching rotation and the puzzle is complete and ready to defend. Bring on the Filthy Mets and their overpriced, washed up team of choke artists. Here we come MLB, your 2008 (and eventually 2009) World Champion Philadelphia Phillies.
don-
great info! i think you are correct that we shouldn’t expect 110 RBI out of Ibanez because of Howard taking away a bunch of opportunities.
j dubbz-
just be warned. it seems like Ibanez will not be an upgrade in the field and is only slightly better on the basepaths.
I know we are in a recession and all, but do the phillies really need to worry about their cap as much as we look at it. They had about 50 sell outs last year and lead the league in sales merchantise and bc this is such a band wagon town, Im sure there will be even more sell outs this year. I just had to renew my sunday package, it was about 800. They have plenty of money. I would not be too upset bringing Moyer back for that much even if he is only good for one more year. I recently heard on 610 Cole Hammels say how important it is to have Moyer on the bench explaining to him how to be great pitcher. We have young guys Carrosco, Happ, Hammels, Kendrick and even Blanton that could truly benefit by having Moyer around. And why cant we have Moyer and Lowe? With good pitching and the core of our team around we could truly make another run again.
Yeah, Pete, I’d prefer a one year deal for Moyer, too. I’m wondering if this deal is getting so close because the Phils have bowed out on Lowe.
One other point to consider concerning the rotation, when was the last time five starters went the entire year without one of them getting shut down, sent to the minors or hitting the DL. THere is nothing wrong with having too many starters.
Here’s a name that I would be interested in–Rich Hill. The kid has good stuff and likely just needs to get out of Chicago. I work with his brother. Pinella had slated him as the #3 starter last year. He had a bad back for most of the season and got shut down for the year in July. He is a solid starter and is probably being overlooked. He’s healthy now and is the odd man out in Chicago. I remember him and Lincecum going head to head in a tight game on ESPN a few years ago.
Pete….”Hopefully the Yankees sign Burnett, the Red Sox sign Teixeira, and suddenly Derek Lowe has no 4-year offers out there.”
You can cross #1 off your list. ESPN is reporting that Burnett has reached a preliminary agreement with the Yankees on a 5-year, $82.5 mil contract.
bski – I want to send a shout out your way. I’m a baseball novice that jumped on the bandwagon full time late last season. I thought you “just wrote alot” but because of your volume of information along with Pete and others, I’m able to pinpoint searches to upgrade my knowledge on not only players and stats but situations and baseball vocabulary.
Without people like you posting this site would have run it’s course months ago (like the Mets). I’ve seen Pete and Dannie say thanks to you many times and I wanted to also. THANKS!!
First of all, a round of applause to Pat Burrell. True, he had his maddening ups and downs, but he’s leaving Philly a champion.
Second, as others have done I just want to thank Dannie and Pete for this awesome blog. My schedule is nuts and I don’t have time to check up on as many sports resources as I used to. Have found myself going straight to The Recliner GM instead of anywhere else. Dannie and Pete’s work is already in a class by itself and then on top of that, it gets even better with all of the commenters who add so much insight. I actually pick this site over Philly.com and ESPN when in need of a good sports fix.
Anyway, about Ibanez: I dont know much about him so I cant say much. It does appear that he’s filled a hole in left field. The numbers are comparible and you could argue he’ll probably make more contact in manufacture-a-run situations. It drove me nuts when we repeatedly couldn’t do anything with runners in scoring position and less than two outs.
One question: We’ve signed an aging lefthanded-hitting outfielder with some pop in his bat. Where does all of this leave Geoff Jenkins?
lots of stat heads hate this deal for the Phillies.
dre….Thank you very much. I appreciate it. I realize that I like to write “a lot”. It’s a way for me to relieve my sports-related angst and to work through my sports-related neuroses. I also really enjoy talking with other knowledgeable, passionate fans, like yourself. I have said many times in my posts that if you think I’m too long-winded, just skip right over my comments. I know I’m not everyone’s cup of tea, but I’m glad to hear that you enjoy my comments.
Pete, just wanted to join the chorus with some praise, though you could construe it as a backhanded compliment, but whatever… Your writing has gotten a lot better recently. I thought your piece on Villanova was incredible! I double-checked to make sure it wasn’t a guest writer! I’m not a literary critic by any means, just my opinion. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was some correlation between your improving writing and the increasing number of comments for baseball. Keep it up!
BTW, the day the Phils extended Manuel, every time a sports radio station had a news update it would say ”…the 2008 World Champion Philadelphia Phillies…” oooh… ahhh… yes, baby, don’t stop… so sweet to hear…
man, the more I read about this move, the less I like it…
Here is Keith Law’s take on our signing of Ibanez. It’s not pretty.
Yeah Pete, I’m starting to feel the same way. I’m sure you read the Keith Law article I just posted above. Funny we were both posting the same stuff about signing Ibanez at the same time.
Here’s another take. This time from bleacherreport.com.
Let’s not get buyers’ remorse on Raul just yet. Remember the Phillies will have an additional $6-8 million per year by doing this deal. That leaves money for additional signings. With that being said, they did give up a first round pick for Ibanez, he is older, his is a lefty and he may be no better if LF defensively than Burrell.
In closing, let’s applaud Pat Burrell for a solid career in Philly. He always played hard and endured a lot of BS from the local media. good luck to him.
bski-
here’s one thing im tripping over that hasn’t been resolved…
@Pete- is he truly as bad as Burrell on BOTH basepads and fielding. omg he had better swing some good wood then.
@bski: lol nice try wit the lefty wearing down theory. firstly its too linear. 2nd remember everytime the phils had a VERY QUICK (like 10 pitch) inning? yeah that happened a lot. lefies would feast on em, conventional wisdom says. but our team is about as UNPREDICABLE as they get. the WS is proof enough so i’d say throw any theories out the window.
wonder what amaro is planning. these are some strange moves he s making
jkay…Yeah, I know. I just thought that instead of trying to zig with everyone else, it might actually work to zag and go a different route, you know?
Pete…post #39 is it exactly. A 3-year moderate contract for Ibanez + a 3-year major contract for Lowe = a prudent way to fill two needs. Other than that, I don’t know that committing 3 years to Ibanez and surrendering draft picks in the process is the right way to go.
I’m gonna miss Pat Burrell. I love watching a guy run slower than me.
His station-to-station ventures always took me back to “Ramar Of The Jungle” and exciting quicksand episodes.
Following is a thumbs-down perspective on Amaro’s Ibanez signing:
http://www.dugoutcentral.com/blog/?p=2137
Burrell: Stolid KO/HR mannequin in left for a decade suddenly turns warm and fuzzy, does his best Gen. MacArthur/conquering hero imitation, posing with bulldog and wife on firetruck at front of parade. Bye bye! Large investment; middlin returns. 1st round pick; never an All-Star. Had some moments but he’s down the list of a chain of players who delivered the ultimate goods.