ReclinerGM’s 2009 Eagles Draft Preview

The Eagles altered their draft significantly this week by trading their 1st and 4th round picks to the Bills for OT Jason Peters. But, because of prior wheeling and dealing, that really just leaves us with a normal draft. They now have the following picks for this weekend’s festivities. 

1st Round – 21st
2nd Round – 53rd
3rd Round – 85th
5th Round – 141st
5th Round – 153rd
5th Round – 157th
5th Round – 159th
6th Round – 194th
6th Round – 195th
7th Round – 230th

I fully expect them to package some of those 5th rounders to either move up into the 4th round, or move up from their pick in the 2nd or 3rd.  

In this preview, I’m only going to look at the Birds first 3 picks, as anything past that is really just crazy speculation (though you could argue it’s really just all speculation after the first couple picks in the 1st round). 

First, we have to figure out what positions the Eagles will be looking for. This is nearly impossible, because they tend to go for the opposite of what they need and look at what they will need 2-3 years from now, rather than who they need this year. 

In the first 2 rounds, I’m pretty confident the Eagles won’t be picking for the following positions: QB, FB, OG, C, DT, LB. 

If I were to rank the remaining positions by which are the most pressing need for the team, I would do it as follows:

1. RB
2. TE
3. WR
4. CB
5. S
6. DE
7. OT 

Of course, when the Eagles look at that list, they also add into it how important those positions are to the team. For them, OT, CB and DE are the most crucial positions on the team (besides QB) and they many times will go for depth there before other areas of need. We know that they don’t value WR very high, and RB, TE and S only slightly higher. 

That logic turns it all upside down. Will the Eagles go for the position of pressing need, or will they go for the position of less need, but higher importance in their view. It’s what makes the Eagles drafts historically so unpredictable, and sometimes frustrating. 

So, I’ll try to do the impossible, and get inside Reid, Banner and Heckert’s minds and predict the first couple picks of the Eagles draft. 

First Round – #21 Overall

What I would do: I would like one of two things to happen with this pick. Either the Eagles package it in a trade for WR Anquan Boldin, or, they select RB Knowshon Moreno out of Georgia. This team is desperate for more offensive firepower, and either player would provide that. Boldin is a tough as nails playmaker and Moreno is a versatile RB who can pound it or catch it and take a lot of the load off of Brian Westbrook. Most mock drafts have the Eagles taking Moreno, which is usually a bad sign. I cannot remember a 1st round mock during the Reid era that was accurate since the McNabb pick. 

What I think the Eagles will do: I’ve been saying all along that I think the Eagles will continue their trend of confusing picks and select a DE or CB in this spot. With the recent news the Sheldon Brown wants a trade, I’m sticking with an earlier prediction that the Birds will use this pick on CB Vontae Davis out of Illinois. I know he has visited, and was a top-5 talent earlier in the year before his stocked dropped him to the late first. I do think that they might pick Moreno, or even trade up to get him, because he is such a perfect fit, but the only time in recent memory the Eagles have picked exactly who I wanted was Broderick Bunkley in 2006. 

What I think won’t happen: I really don’t see them taking a TE this early, or trading up for Brandon Pettigrew. There are a lot of TE’s to be had in this draft in the later rounds, and I don’t think the value is there in the 1st. 

Other names to look for:  DE Robert Ayers, RB Donald Brown, WR Hakeem Nicks

Second Round – #53 Overall

What I would do: If the Birds take my route and address RB in the first round, I’m torn on how I’d like to proceed in the second round. Honestly, I’d be so ecstatic with the Moreno pick that I’d just want them to take the best available WR, TE, DE, S or CB. But what would be the fun in just saying that. Let’s look at the individual positions.

TE- After reading some scouting reports, it seems that there are several good pass-catching TE’s here (Shawn Nelson, Jared Cook, James Casey) but none are above average blockers. However, the additions to the OL might negate the need for a great blocking TE. Shawn Nelson seems to be the most talented of the bunch, but they are pretty even. 

WR – Unless a WR like Kenny Britt or Hakeem Nicks drops to here, there’s really no one here who jumps out as an immediate upgrade over who we already have. Many of the WR’s graded in this area are sub 6′ guys, and I’d much rather have a taller red-zone threat like Britt or Nicks. 

DE – Michael Johnson out of GT is a intriguing prospect to me with this pick. Early on, he was graded as a top-10 pick because of his freakish athleticism. However, there has been some question about his drive and work ethic. He’d be a high risk, high reward pick who could contribute as a pass rusher right away. 

S – Obviously with the departure of Brian Dawkins, the uncertainty of Quintin Demps’ ability and the 1-year deal for Sean Jones, there are questions here. There are 2 prospects to look for here in Patrick Chung of Oregon and William Moore of Mizzou. Chung appears to be the safer prospect, while Moore has the upside. 

CB – This whole Sheldon Brown thing has me really nervous, and with Lito Sheppard gone, and Jack Ikegwuonu a question mark, CB depth and long term stability is suddenly an issue. Sean Smith out of Utah might be on the board here, and is a tall CB with great ball skills. 

After combing through a variety of scouting reports, I’m going to say I’d like to see the Eagles take CB Sean Smith here if he’s around. The CB position is so important in our division, and while it would be nice to get a TE or WR, I don’t see any of the guys that might be here as major upgrades. Smith on the other hand, has loads of potential, and at 6′ 3”, could be the Bobby Taylor to Asante Samuel’s Troy Vincent. This would also give us the ability to trade Sheldon Brown if he decides he’s just not going to play without a new contract. 

What I think the Eagles will do: If the Eagles take Davis with their first pick, I’m pretty sure they will go for an offensive player here. I think they would agree that the WR and TE’s at this point aren’t huge upgrades, and the need for a RB is so big, Andy Reid has even mentioned they have to get something done. I believe this would be the highest point for a RB to be picked under Reid. Players to look at include Shonn Greene, Andre Brown from NC State, Javon Ringer and Rashad Jennings from Liberty. Unless  RB LeShon McCoy drops down (Mel Kiper currently has him going at #50) I think the pick will be RB Andre Brown, who is the best in the passing game and relatively big.

Third Round – #85 Overall

What I would do: It’s almost impossible to say who I would take here, because you really have no idea who is going to fall this far. If any of the TE, S or DE I mentioned for the second round pick fall to here, I would grab them immediately. According to Mel Kiper’s 4-round mock, TE James Casey might still be around, so I’ll keep him in mind.

After going CB in the last round, I want a WR/TE with potential here. Casey is my man at TE, so let’s look at what WR’s might be around.

• Brandon Tate, UNC – 6′ and skinny, Tate was just as dangerous as potential 1st rounder and teammate Hakeem Nicks before his blew out his knee. Will be ready for the 2009 season.
• Derrick Williams, PSU – The #1 recruit in the country coming out of High School, was Williams mis-used at Penn State, or just overrated out of HS?
• Pat White, WVU – Intriguing because of his great athleticism and ability to run the wildcat that we tried several times with DeSean Jackson last year. Risky because, well, he’s never played WR.
• Mohamed Massaquoi, UGA - Never heard of this guy, but I like what I read. He’s 6′1.5” and was a team captain and received multiple awards at UGA for his leadership and dedication. The scouting report says he is fearless over the middle and a solid blocker. Negative? Probably not a lot of upside here. Kiper has him going in the 2nd, but Scouts Inc. has him 73rd overall, so he could be available.
• Brian Robiskie, OSU – Here’s your red zone threat. Robiskie is 6′3”, 209 lbs. He’s durable and has good hands. 

Given the choice between all these WR’s and Casey at TE, I think I’d take WR Mohamed Massaquoi if he is still on the board because of his attitude and work ethic. If he is not there, I’d go Robiskie next, and then Casey.

What I think the Eagles will do: It wouldn’t be an Eagles draft without a true “what the hell was that?” moment. I predict it will come here, when they select OT Jamon Meredith out of South Carolina. Why? Well, he plays tackle and guard, which Andy Reid loves. In 2-3 years, we might need a new OL with Cole and center, Jackson and Herremens potentially gone and who knows with Shawn Andrews. Of course it doesn’t make sense, but it would to them.

So, In Summary…

How I would pick…

1. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
2. Sean Smith, CB, Utah
3. Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Georgia

How I think the Eagles will pick…

1. Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
2. Andre Brown, RB, NC State
3. Jamon Meredith, OT, South Carolina

I am hopeful that Eagles might actually go my route, there are lots of rumors they really want Moreno, but until I see an Eagles draft that I can explain, I’ve got to think they will go against the grain. Either way, I’m excited to enjoy the draft and the nice weather this weekend, and hope the Eagles have some pieces to help us win in 2009 by Monday.

April 21, 2009