explanation of rankings and other team previews here
2008 Record: 82-80
Offseason Additions: Jon Garland, Felipe Lopez
Offseason Subtractions: Randy Johnson, Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, Juan Cruz
Ranks (MLB):
Line-Up – 17th
Rotation – 4th
Bullpen – 27th
Defense – 5th tier (out of 5)
Baserunning – 4th tier (out of 5)
KEY PLAYER: JUSTIN UPTON
Pitching shouldn’t be too much of a problem for D-Backs, but their young offense sputtered big time last year and they need someone (or a couple someones) to break out this season. It might be a lot to ask of the 21-year-old Upton, but he has the most potential of any player on the team. He put up a .816 OPS last year at age 20, something only 13 other players have been able to do in the history of the game. Scouts have said he has more potential than his brother B.J., who broke out the last 2 years with the Rays. Upton has the potential to be a future superstar, and the Snakes will be hoping that he matures quicker than most and can be an offensive force this season.
PLAYER TO WATCH: MAX SCHERZER
The Diamondbacks have the best 1-2 punch in baseball in Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, but they are hoping that young Max Scherzer can give them the best top-3 in baseball. Scherzer burst onto the scene last year in a reliever role, and in his first appearance, he pitched 4.1 IP, with 0 htis, 0 walks and 7 strikeouts. He started several games at the end of the season, compiling a 3.41 ERA and a very impressive 48 K in 37 IP. He has the stuff to be a true #1 starter, it’s just a matter of whether he can put it all together. If he can go on the fast track, a la Tim Lincecum, the Diamondbacks will be very tough to hit against this season.
PHILLY ANGLE
The Ageless Tom Gordon
In 1989, Kirby Puckett won the AL batting crown, Fred McGriff the HR crown and Ruben Sierra the RBI crown. Orioles closer Gregg Olson won the Rookie of the Year, beating out 21-year old Royals starter Tom Gordon, and 19-year old wunderkind Ken Griffey Jr. That year, Gordon ended up 2nd in the AL in K/9 and H/9, trailing only Nolan Ryan in both categories, and ahead of Roger Clemens. 17 years later, Gordon signed with the Philadelphia Phillies, as the patch-work closer to replace to departed Billy Wagner. Gordon was almost exactly what we expected. He was solid his first year, saving 36 games and making an all-star appearance, and injury prone the next two. When he was on, and his arm healthy, he had a great fastball and a devastating curve-ball. When most players would have retired, Gordon has tireless worked himself back into shape (again) and the 41 year old signed a 1-year contract to be a part of the Diamondbacks bullpen. He has 130 wins, 150 saves, and 1900 K for his career, putting him with John Smoltz and Dennis Eckersley as they best starters turned closers of all-time. He was always a professional and a competitor, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he still has some pop left in that right arm.
QUICK HITS
Worst Contract: Eric Byrnes (3 yrs, $30 million, ends in 2010)
Best Pitch: Brandon Webb’s sinking fastball
Best Player in a Contract Year: Doug Davis, LHP
Top Prospect: Jarrod Parker, RHP
Best Individual Season: Randy Johnson, 2001 (21-6, 2.49 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 372 K, 249.2 IP, Cy Young, highest K/9 rate ever by a starter, 13.41)
Worst Uniforms: 1998
Where’d They Come From?
- Draft, 7
- Trade, 5
- Free Agent, 2
- Amateur FA, 0
2009 OUTLOOK
2nd NL West, 5th NL, 11th MLB
This 2nd place finish is under the assumption that Manny Ramirez signs with the Dodgers. If that falls apart, the D-Backs jump into the 1st place spot. This is a team that reminds me a lot of the Rays from last year. They have great starting pitching with Webb, Haren, Scherzer, Doug Davis and Jon Garland and they have a bit of a patchwork bullpen, especially with the loss of Juan Cruz. The key is their young hitters. With the Rays last year, a bunch of their young hitters took a leap at the same time. With the Diamondbacks, Chris Young (25 years old), Justin Upton (21), Mark Reynolds (25), Conor Jackson (26) and Stephen Drew (25) all have the potential for breakout seasons. If they all break out, this team will win 100 games, but it’s likely that one or two will, and the others may take a step back. Either way, their pitching will be enough to keep them in contention, but they are definitely a dark horse championship contender to keep an eye on.
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A couple of quick thoughts:
1. One could argue that RJ’s 2002 season was better than his 2001 season.
2. The worst uniforms were the home whites used from 2001-2006
http://exhibits.baseballhalloffame.org/dressed_to_the_nines/detail_page.asp?fileName=nl_2001_arizona.gif&Entryid=1982
3. One could make the argument that Drew made the “leap” last year, while Chris Young had a quietly impressive second half, and Conor Jackson seems destined to be a hit machine lacking in HR power, a valuable commodity nonetheless. If Reynolds and Upton can be a little more selective at the plate, this team should win the division.
4. I could see the Manny Ramirez thing going either way. Either he puts up huge numbers and keeps a loose clubhouse, or he grumbles about his contract while alienating his teammates and fans.
Well, it’s clear that Pete took the quick hits off for this review. Other than the obvious mistake of linking to the 1971 White Sox as the worst uniforms, I have to guffaw at your choice in best player in a contract year. Doug Davis might actually qualify as the worst contract in fact, making $8.75 million this season. He is one game under .500 for his career, with an ERA of 4.34 and a WHIP of 1.491. He’s only had two seasons with ERAs under 4 and WHIPs under 1.4, and those were with the Brewers in 2004 and 2005. He is the definition of an average pitcher. Probably worse. He hasn’t begun to earn the $22 million Arizona signed him for.
As for players in contract years who actually have talent, Chad Tracy is in the last year of his deal (although with a team option, not sure if that disqualifies you in that section), Jon Rauch also has an option year coming up next year, and Stephen Drew’s five year deal is up this year.
Jimmy -
- Doug Davis had a 111 ERA+ in 192.7 innings in 2007, and a 107 ERA+ in 146 innings last year (he was out with thyroid cancer). For $7 million a year, that’s a pretty good value.
- Stephen Drew signed a Major League deal as a draftee, but still has 4 years of Arizona control, including 3 arbitration years.
jacob-
I think Drew will probably continue to round into an All-Star caliber player, while Jackson will continue to be an on-base machine. Reynolds, Upton, and Young are similar in that they all have tons of raw power but strike out too much. If I had to rank their prospects for putting it all together this year, I’d probably say Young, then Upton, then Reynolds.
Wait….Jacob is alive?
Pete, thanks for mentioning Olson. You’ve awakened much repressed memories of every save opportunity he squandered in our early days. If you ever wanted to sketch his most common position, you’d draw him on his knees looking North-east, where the opposing team’s bottom of the order just took him to the deepest part of the field.
By now Manny has decided to stick around in L.A. I think the Dbacks’ pitching will provide some exciting games against the Dodgers throughout the season, but if our hitting continues to be flukey – I’d agree with us taking second place, with no shot at the Wild Card.