With the Phillies playing nearly into November this year, the baseball season is coming up quicker than one would think. Pitchers and catchers report in 26 days, and before we know it, we’ll be raising the championship flag at the Bank.
Well before I had a blog, I would spend entirely too much time coming up with my predictions for the baseball season. Now that I have a blog, it’s gotten much worse.
Here’s how I came up with my rankings for the season, and the percentages assigned to each area. I’m well aware that these are not scientific, and that a SABR-matrician would be hard pressed not to laugh at the logic behind it, but if baseball had a way to perfectly predict a season, it wouldn’t be terribly exciting.
40% Line-up – I ranked each player at each position based on projected 2009 performance, including DHs, from 1-30. The teams were rated based on the average ranking on their starting-8 (or 9).
35% Starting Rotation – Done the same way as the hitters, only I used a weighted average to average out the teams, with 1-2 starters getting 25%, 3-4 getting 20% and 5 getting 10%. The fifth starter was so low, because it usually ends up being a minor leaguer or long reliever in the bullpen after injuries or poor performance.
12.5% Bullpen – This was also split out into 2 parts, the closer and the 3 set-up guys (6th, 7th, 8th inning). Closer was worth 35%, the rest 65%.
5% Defense – This is actually more important than 5%, but some of the defense shows up in the pitchers ERA’s, so I dropped it down. I got this from looking at an advanced defensive metric called Ultimate Zone Rating (UTR), and explanation of which you can find here. Once again, I looked at each player and averaged out their ratings. I then separated the teams into 5 tiers.
2.5% Baserunning – For this, I used a stat from Baseball Prospectus, that I have mentioned before called Eqiuvalent Base Running Runs. Averaged out everyone on the team, and put the teams in 5 tiers again.
5% Gut feeling – There has to be a human element to this, so this last 5% was after I had finished with all these rankings, I gave the team a score based on whether or not I thought my own projections had them too high, too low, or just right.
So that’s how I came up with the rankings. But there’ll be plenty to read. The next 3 categories are Key Player, Player to Watch, and Philly Angle. Philly Angle might be tough, but I know a lot people here aren’t die-hard baseball fans, so I’ll try to get something in there for everyone, but there might be some reaches…
Lastly, I’m going to have a bunch of quick hits. These I really enjoyed doing.
Where’d They Come From? – For this, I looked at the line-up, the 5 starters and the closer (14 or 15 players) and looked at how they were acquired by the team: Free Agent, Drafted, Trade, or Amateur Free Agent. Amateur Free Agents are usually player signed out of the Dominican or somewhere else outside the U.S. at a young age. Rule-5 draft picks I pooled in with drafted and waiver pick-ups I pooled in with free agents.
Worst Contract – self-explanatory
Best Pitch – The best single pitch on the team. For instance, the 1963 Dodgers would be “Sandy Koufax’s Curveball.”
Best Player in a Contract Year – a look ahead at 2009 free agents
Top Prospect – self-explanatory
Best Individual Season – The best season a single player has had in the history of the franchise. I had already done a great deal of research in 2007 for my 100 Greatest Individual Seasons book idea, so I figured I’d put it to use.
Worst Uniforms – the season in which they had their worst uni’s, and a link to a picture.
Finally, I’ll have an Outlook, which reveals my pick for the team and a quick summary of what to look for in 2009.
This page will serve as homepage for all the previews. I’m going to start with the AL West and I saved divisions that may be likely destinations for remaining FA (Manny, Oliver Perez, etc…) for last. Also, during this time, I will be doing my Phillies preview in several parts, so we don’t have to wait until then to get into that. Enjoy…
note: Alphabetical, not predicted order of finish…
AL East
AL Central
AL West
NL East
- Atlanta Braves
- Florida Marlins
- New York Mets
- Philadelphia Phillies (Infield/Outfield/Starters/Bullpen/vs. Mets)
- Washington Nationals
NL Central
- Chicago Cubs
- Cincinnati Reds
- Houston Astros
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- St. Louis Cardinals
NL West
Pete, I like how your ‘Gut Feeling’ outweighs ‘Baserunning’ in the analysis. Can’t wait to read the posts.
Can’t wait sounds like good stuff and besides football is OVER. Although I guess I’ll root for the Cards, it feels better to lose to the SB winner
Hey nice pic, on this post by the way
Is it just me or does anyone else think Pete is mildly insane?
More than “mildly”, if he’s got the Orioles in first and the Cardinals and Twins in last.
The Orioles haven’t done enough yet to leapfrog over a single team in that tough division…they’ll be lucky to pass the Blue Jays. The Pirates and Reds are near-total locks to finish at the bottom of the NL Central. As for the Twins being picked last, people do this every year and I would think they’ve proven that’s just not going to happen. And the White Sox will be lucky to get within ten games of Cleveland.
And the Marlins! And Rockies! Unbelievable…
Kelly-
Ah! Now THAT makes more sense. Funny–I noticed that with the AL Central but just thought it was a coincidence. I was a little confused that you had all this solid analysis, then picked such strange finishes.
Do the Reds!