Every team except the lowly Royals has won this division in recent years, but 2010 looks like a 2-team race between the Twins and the White Sox with the Tigers in a down year and the Indians and Royals in all-out rebuilding mode. When in doubt, don’t bet against the Twins, who are the most disciplined and fundamentally sound organization in all of baseball. Here’s how I see the division playing out in 2010.
1. Minnesota Twins (AL Ranks: 6th best Line-Up, 9th best rotation)
Why I Have Them Here
Their 2 MVPs. They might not get the publicity of other duos, but I’m not sure there is a better pair of players on the same team as Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. When healthy, Mauer is the 2nd best hitter in baseball behind Albert Pujols, and he does it while playing stellar defense at the most demanding position on the field. Morneau, since becoming a full time player in 2006, is 2nd in the AL in RBI to A-Rod, and would probably be first if he had not missed the last 25 games of the last year with injury.
Biggest Concern: Will the home field advantage carry over?
Over the last 2 years the Twins have gone 102-61 at home and 73-89 on the road. Part of the reason for their stellar play at home is the unique nature of the Metrodome, which has always been tough for opposing teams to adjust to. This season the Twins move to Target Field, an outdoor stadium (have fun in April and September!) that will be much more like most MLB stadiums. Will the Twins big-time home field advantage carry over to the new digs? It could be a big story for them this year.
Most Important Player: Francisco Liriano, SP
Right now, Liriano isn’t even penciled into the starting rotation for the Twins but there have been reports out of the Dominican Summer league that his velocity is coming back and has looked dominant in a couple outings. Getting him back into the rotation as an effective starter would be absolutely huge for this club and could be the difference between getting to the playoffs and actually making noise there.
Best Newcomer: Jim Thome
I was extremely happy to see Jim Thome land in Minnesota. He doesn’t have a starting gig with Morneau at 1st and Jason Kubel DHing, but he will get his ABs. At age 38, Thome still hit 23 HR last in 107 games with White Sox. He is one of the bigger casualties of the steroid era, in my opinion, as his 564 HR’s seem insignificant with all the players reaching 500 in recent. He is 7th all-time in career HR among players who have not been linked to PED’s behind Aaron, Ruth, Mays, Griffey, Robinson and Killebrew.
2. Chicago White Sox (AL Ranks: 9th best Line-Up, 5th best rotation)
Why I Have Them Here
I completely forgot about the Jake Peavy trade as it has no impact on the post-season and he was still hurt, so when I looked at the White Sox rotation of Peavy, Mark Buerhle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd, I was surprised at how good it looked on paper. Peavy is the key, as you basically know what you are going to get from the other 3 at this point. He showed signs of returning to form at the end of the year, when he made 3 starts, allowing only 3 runs in 20 IP with 18 K. Whether he can stay healthy is another story completely.
Biggest Concern: Who is going to hit?
The White Sox were 12th in the AL in runs last year and 2 of their 3 biggest run producers are gone (Thome and Dye). They are hoping Gordon Beckham matures quickly, Carlos Quentin and Alex Rios return to form and Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre play like it’s 2003. Lots and lots of question marks here.
Most Important Player: Gordon Beckham
This has to be an offensive player and while I thought about one of the older guys coming back to form, Gordon Beckham stepping up and leading this team might really be what they need. White Sox fans see Beckham as their future Chase Utley and based on his accent to the majors (drafted in 2008) and early success, he certainly has a chance to be. It’s a lot to ask of a 23-year old, but he could be a special player.
Best Newcomer: Juan Pierre
From 2005-2008, Juan Pierre was absolutely horrible, with the 4th worst OPS (.688) in all of baseball (2,000+ PA). Last year however, when Manny Ramirez was out, Pierre stepped into a starting role and played well, hitting .308 with a .757 OPS. Whether or not this was just an aberration remains to be seen, but if he can regain some of the mojo that made him a terror in 2003 and 2004, it would be a great boost to the White Sox line-up.
3. Detroit Tigers (AL Ranks: 10th best Line-Up, 7th best rotation)
Why I Have Them Here
The Tigers still have a legit ace (Justin Verlander) and MVP candidate (the now-sober Miguel Cabrera) but besides that, there is a lot missing from the team that made the World Series a few years back and seemed poised for a return trip or two. Financial problems forced them to trade Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson this off-season, but then they went and signed Jose Valverde to a lucrative deal to be their closer. Go figure. They will probably hang around for awhile, but they don’t have the depth to make a run.
Biggest Concern: Financial uncertainty
Detroit has probably been hit the worst by the current economic downturn and as a result, the Tigers revenue streams are really struggling and will likely only get worse. The Tigers seemed to have every player with a contract on the trade market this off-season, even Miguel Cabrera. If things turn south, there could be a mid-season firesale.
Most Important Player: Rick Porcello
Porcello was the first American League pitcher since 1977 to pitch over 170 innings with a sub-4 ERA before his 21st birthday. 4 of the last 5 to do it (Jim Palmer, Dennis Eckersley, Frank Tanana and Bert Blyleven) went on to average 248 wins for their career. So the bar for Porcello is pretty high. 20-year old pitchers just don’t pitch in the majors anymore (can you imagine the Phillies calling up a 20-yr old?) so I was surprised that Porcello wasn’t talked about more last year. He might be in for a sophomore slump, but if he’s not, the Tigers will have an impressive duo atop their rotation.
Best Newcomer: Max Scherzer
A lot of baseball people were surprised when the D-Backs gave up Scherzer in the Edwin Jackson deal, saying they didn’t think he could be a starter long-term. The Tigers jumped at the chance to add Scherzer to their rotation, and now have 2 of the hardest throwers in the league in Velander (95.6 mph fastball avg) and Max (93.6 mph).
4. Kansas City Royals (AL Ranks: 13th best Line-Up, 10th best rotation)
Why I Have Them Here
The Royals have been the Pirates of the AL for awhile now, not only do they not spend money, but they don’t scout particularly well either. Things are turning around a little for the Royals as some of their talent is blooming (Zack Greinke, Billy Butler) but they are a long way away from competiting.
Biggest Concern: Can Dayton Moore get it done?
When the Royals signed Moore to be their GM in 2006, they hoped he would bring some of the John Scheurholz’s magic from the Braves with him. So far, not so much. Moore has had some success, but he’s also signed a lot of strange contracts (Gil Meche, Jose Guillen). Their farm system is improving (only took 4 years) and there is enough hope in KC that the Royals extended Moore for another 4 years, but if they aren’t the mix in the AL Central by then, he’ll be gone.
Most Important Player: Alex Gordon
For teams like the Royals who have little chance at the playoffs, their MIP will likely be either a minor leaguer or a younger player at the MLB level. In the Royals case, it is Alex Gordon. Gordon came on the scene in 2007 as one of the most hyped Royals prospects ever. He drew George Brett comparisons and was supposed to be the first of many young players to bring the Royals back to being competative. He disappointed in his freshman campaign but showed some improvement in 2008, leaving many to think he would break out in 2009. An injury derailed any chance of that happening and Gordon finished with only 164 ABs. At 25, his career is far from done, but if he can’t get it going in 2010, he’ll be well on his way to being one of the biggest busts of the decade.
Best Newcomer: Noel Arguelles
While the rest of the world went crazy about Aroldis Chapman, the Royals swooped in a signed another Cuban defector, 19-year old lefty Noel Arguelles, to a 5-year, $7 million deal. Arguelles needs a good deal of seasoning in the minors, but the Royals feel he can be a top-of-the-rotation starter. He has a low-90s fastball and already has an above average change-up. Like Chapman, he’ll need to work on his accuracy. This was a great move for the Royals, and exactly the type of move the low budget teams need to make to be competitive.
5. Cleveland Indians (AL Ranks: 11th best Line-Up, 13th best rotation)
Why I Have Them Here
In the past 2 years, the Indians have traded CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez and are now stuck in total rebuilding mode. The pitcher who was supposed to take the reigns from the two Cy Young-ers, Fausto Carmona, completely fell off the face of the earth last year, and now their rotation is closer to resembling an AAA squad than a MLB one.
Biggest Concern: Did They Get Enough for Lee and Sabathia?
Hmmm, where have we heard this before? Even if Jason Knapp comes back 100% from arm surgery, we know that they didn’t get enough for Lee. As for Sabathia, they landed Matt LaPorta, who will get a chance to prove his worth this year, and 3 guys who either are too young to tell if they are any good, or not good enough to get excited about. It’s very possible that in the end, trading 2 Cy Young players only netted them one all-star caliber player in return (LaPorta). And that’s only if LaPorta reaches his potential.
Most Important Player: Matt LaPorta
Based on what I said above, it’s very possible that Indians’ fans morale is at an all-time low right now. They’ve gone from very nearly getting to (and probably winning) the World Series in 2007, to being one of teams furthest away from a Series berth in 2010. They’ve traded 3 of their 4 best players in the last 2 years, and didn’t get much to get excited about in return. One thing that could salvage some hope is LaPorta, who rocked minor league pitching in 2009 and showed some promise in his big league debut. If he becomes the 40 HR, 100 RBI guy scouts think he can be, it would take a lot of sting out of the recent trades.
Best Newcomer: Manny Acta
I believe their only signing of the off-season was Mike Redmond, so we’ll have to go with the new manager, Manny Acta. Like in Washington, Acta is in a tough situation with not a whole lot to work with. If he can get this team around .500, it’ll be impressive.
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This division really is kind of a mess, isn’t it? A far cry from what it was just a few years ago and one-hundred eighty degrees about from the AL East, that’s for sure. Money might have something to do with it, although the jury is still out on that
Speaking of money, Jayson Stark wrote an article last week in which he claimed that money, specifically revenue-sharing, could be the most volatile issue standing in the way of the next labor deal.
It seems that the big-budget teams who pay the most into the revenue-sharing pool (Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, Mets) are now pointing fingers at the small-budget teams (Pirates, Royals, Marlins, Padres, Blue Jays) who receive this money without “improving their performance on the field”, like the Basic Agreement requires them to.
Anyway, back in 2006, I watched a lot of games between the Twins, White Sox, and Tigers on MLB Extra Innings. Great race and a lot of good ball between them that year. This was when Liriano burst onto the scene. Looked like he was really going to be something. Now the Twins are hoping he still can be. BTW, I am also glad that Thome ended up with the Twins.
The Royals are a puzzler. Signing Kendall, Podsednik, and Ankiel kind of deviates from the blueprint, doesn’t it?
As I was reading your summary of the Tigers, I was reminded of an article I read last fall (Sept. 22nd) in Sports Illustrated. It went on at length about how, even though Detroit has been very hard hit by the economic downturn, the Tigers are doing OK…………
The sweetest image of this baseball season is the sight of Comerica Park, filled from the box seats to the bleachers. At the end of spring training, the unemployment rate in metro Detroit had climbed to 23%, the average home price fell below $12,000, and the Tigers calculated that season-ticket sales were down 13,000. Corporate sponsorships and luxury-suite sales were also taking a hit. “I was here in 2003, when we lost 119 games, and a lot of nights this stadium felt like an empty cathedral,” says third baseman Brandon Inge. “I expected it to be like that again.” Anybody familiar with the economics of baseball could envision how the summer would play out: Paltry attendance would lead to slashed payroll and a second straight last-place finish. “My only hope,” says centerfielder Curtis Granderson, “was that people wouldn’t go on vacation to Orlando or California and would come to our games instead.”
The financial forecast in Detroit has not necessarily brightened, but in a development as unexpected as Chevy’s unveiling of the Volt, the Tigers have provided a jolt — electrifying for much of the summer, slightly terrifying recently — for the city. They rank fourth in the American League in attendance, at 31,360 per game; are fifth in the majors in payroll, at more than $115 million; and, through Sunday, were still in first, albeit tenuously, thanks to a September skein of nine losses in 12 games. They were also 48-26 at Comerica Park, a record they attribute to the overwhelming responsibility they feel playing in front of their home fans, many of whom are presumably using what little discretionary income they have to watch the team play. In his first spring training meeting manager Jim Leyland told his players, “People are going to be spending some of their last dollars to come to these games, and we need to give them our best effort. This is not the year not to run out a ground ball.”
“We know there are families in the stands who are fighting to keep their houses and feed their kids,” Inge says. “We take that seriously. We can’t lollygag our way through a game. We have to give them a show. I really believe they are the reason that we are where we are.”
Comerica Park may be located in the heart of the majors’ most depressed market, but you wouldn’t know it on game days. Former Tigers outfielder Willie Horton, who used to deliver newspapers as a boy on Woodward Avenue, walks the street before games and gets chills as he sees buses full of fans rolling in from as far away as Toronto, Toledo and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. At CZ’s Sports, a souvenir shop bordering the stadium, part-owner Ernest Carr estimates that his profits are up almost 40% from last year due to the team’s improved record.
Of course that was last year and they were winning. It may prove very difficult to sustain it in 2010, especially if they aren’t in the race.
It’s not a bad idea to pick the Twins to win the division. I think they’d strengthen themselves nicely if they add Orlando Hudson. It struck me as shocking that Jim Thome qualified as the best newcomer, but in reviewing their off season transactions, or lack of same, that’s about it. Seems like reupping with Carl Pavano was about it to this point.
I do like the White Sox rotation, as would anyone, but I’m hesitant to write off the Tigers. One of the reasons is that as sick of Matt Holliday talk as I got, as sick of Johnny Damon talk as I got, the fact of the matter is that Damon is still out there, and I think he’d fit nicely in Detroit, and there is talk of a match. Damon’s baserunning in the Series is still fresh in my mind, as are his 2 homers in the ALCS in 04 in 1 game. He’s a real solid contributor wherever he winds up, and I think Detroit is as good a guess as any. I also recall the way the Tigers blew the division last year, and I suspect that’s a motivator.
Speaking of things that people are sick of, Rueben pleaded his case again in the press Tuesday morning on why it was right to trade Cliff Lee. Tim Dierkes, who I believe runs MLBTradeRumors.com, and I believe to be very knwledgable posted this today…
<<Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. further explained his rationale behind the Cliff Lee trade, reports Scott Lauber of The News Journal. Amaro’s reasoning didn’t sway my opinion; none of the three prospects he received are in Keith Law’s top 100 (though Ramirez is #101). The long-term value of Phillippe Aumont, J.C. Ramirez, and Tyson Gillies should not outweigh the extra 4-5 wins Lee would’ve provided in 2010. And did Amaro even shop Lee around for the best package? >>
I’m very anxious to see history prove him wrong, mostly through the development of Phillippe Aumont. Only time will tell if this was a right move, but until proven otherwise, I remain on board with Rueben.
I came across an interesting article by Tom Verducci on si.com: Baseball keeps connection to it’s past as domes change NFL
It’s a long article, but a good read. Verducci provides numbers to show the disproportionate home-field advantage enjoyed by domed teams, including specifics about Manning and the Colts and Brees and the Saints. Here is the upshot…………
So welcome to the new NFL and a Super Bowl that defines the massive changes that have hit football. This is the matchup wrought by the Age of Domes. Forget what you learned about defense winning championships; there are 17 teams with better defenses than the Colts and Saints sitting at home.
Instead, we have two teams that spread the field and leveraged crowd noise and benign conditions to get here. The Colts and Saints played 25 of their 36 combined games indoors, going 22-3 in those games. They played 33 of their 36 games in temperatures of 56 degrees or warmer, rolling to a 31-5 record in such pleasant conditions. In the three games they actually played in cold weather — 36, 30 and 12 degrees — they went 1-2.
The Colts and the Saints deserve to be there at the Super Bowl. They are the best at how today’s NFL game is played.
The reason I am posting this here is because Verducci also talks about domed teams and home-field advantage in MLB, singling out the Twins, who are moving to an outdoor stadium this season (as Pete noted). Check this out……….
The Minnesota Twins will lose one of the greatest homefield advantages in baseball this year when they move from the Metrodome to Target Field, an outdoor ballpark. The Metrodome’s white ceiling, fast turf and tricky lighting played havoc on opponents. The Twins played .541 baseball in the Metrodome since 1982 and .441 baseball elsewhere, a 27 percent greater home/road split than the major league average in those years. Over the past decade, here are the biggest home/road splits in baseball from 2000-2009:
Team: Home/Road/Diff
Tampa .504/.355/.169
Colorado .557/.391/.166
Minnesota .587/.478/.109
Pittsburgh .475/.367/.108
Montreal/ .490/.388/.102
Washington
The top five homefield advantages include three domes and a ballpark at high altitude — venues well outside the norm. The Twins’ home/road splits are likely to be more in line with major league averages over the next decade simply by moving outside.
As an aside, I find it pretty messed up that the MLB playoffs are now routinely played in colder/much worse weather conditions than are the NFL playoffs.
I know this does not pertain to the AL Central, but Jon Heyman has an article: Eight teams struck out this winter by not spending enough. Hopefully he is correct and it affects these teams on the field this season because two of them are in our division and one we have met in the palyoffs the past two seasons.
1. Mets
Even Mets great Darryl Strawberry chimed in with an assessment of the Mets’ offseason Tuesday night, diplomatically summing it up by saying it “could have been better.”
No kidding.
While the Mets signed the big hitter they sought in Jason Bay on a reasonable $66-million price (at least compared to Matt Holliday’s $120-million deal), they mostly imported a collection of backup catchers like Henry Blanco and Chris Coste, comfortable old friends like Alex Cora and Fernando Tatis and question marks like Kelvim Escobar. The result is that they will take a paper-thin rotation into spring along with a slew of unproven catchers and tons of other questions.
They could have had Joel Piniero for $18 million over two years and surely Bengie Molina for $10 million over two (Molina was the bigger loss in my estimation, since he’s a catcher with power and a rep for handling a young staff), but they played hardball with each and are left lacking at both key positions.
They were also stuck with Luis Castillo at second after spending weeks trying to trade him so they could make a run at Orlando Hudson. But the topper to a soap-operatic offseason has to be their public fight with star center fielder Carlos Beltran for having a knee surgery all sides agreed was a good idea. Now that’s not a good idea.
8. Braves
They were remarkably cheap this winter, and the result is a rotation diminished by the loss of Javier Vazquez and a lineup that still needs another big hitter. Melky Cabrera was the only immediate help received for Vazquez, who was brilliant last year. Troy Glaus could prove to be a $2 million bargain, and Eric Hinske seems to be a lucky charm (he played for the AL champion the past three seasons). They also got former All-Star closer Takashi Saito. Meanwhile, the real goal had been to trade Derek Lowe so they could free up money for the much-needed impact bat. Unfortunately for them, there were no takers. Billy Wagner is a fair replacement for Rafael Soriano (though at this point, I’d take Soriano). But overall, there was no discernible improvement.
3. Dodgers
The newly divided Dodgers and their divorcing owners couldn’t afford to risk going to arbitration with Randy Wolf, couldn’t quite afford Piniero and could do no better or their staff than bring back Vicente Padilla and Jeff Weaver, leaving plenty of rotation questions. Veteran infielder Jamey Carroll, solid-hitting infielder Ronnie Belliard, utilityman Alfredo Amezaga, catching pro Brad Ausmus, underrated outfielder Reed Johnson and rotation longshot Ramon Ortiz were signed, all useful players that are less than marquee men for the storied franchise. GM Ned Colletti wisely locked up their best young players, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Chad Billinsgley and Jonathan Broxton, avoiding any more bitterness for an organization that’s run by baseball’s version of the War of the Roses.
the AL central is really a mess.