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There is a very good chance the AL representative in the World Series will come from this division, where the 3 best teams reside. If Baltimore’s young talent comes around in the next couple years and we have 4 contenders in this division, you might start to hear some murmurs about realignment.
1. Boston Red Sox (AL Ranks: 2nd best Line-Up, best rotation)
Why I Have Them Here
Pitching and defense. After signing John Lackey, the Red Sox have the best rotation in baseball with Beckett, Lackey, Lester, Buchholz and Wakefield/Dice-K. What will make them even better is their off-season additions in the field. They added arguably the best glove in baseball at 3rd in Adrian Beltre, added a gold-glove CF in Mike Cameron (which also improves their LF defense with Ellsbury moving over) and upgraded at SS with Marco Scutaro. It’s very possible the Sox will give up the least amount of runs in baseball, despite playing in the toughest division. I love me some pitching and defense, and that’s why I have the Sox ahead of the Yankees here.
Biggest Concern: Do they have enough offense?
Obviously if they are the best in the business throwing and catching the ball, the only possible fall back could be hitting it. Gone are the days when the Sox just lumped Manny and Papi in the middle of the order and let them work. Manny is off taking fertility drugs in LA, Papi regressed severely last year, and now last year’s HR and RBI leader, Jason Bay, is preparing to watch his power numbers plummet in Citi Field. Their line-up is solid 1 through 9 (I don’t think there is a better 9-hole hitter than Scutaro) but they lack the bat that you fear, which leads me to…
Most Important Player: Victor Martinez, C/DH
The 31-year-old Martinez came over in mid-season and performed very well for the Sox, with a .912 OPS and 41 RBI in 56 games. It is absolutely essential to the Sox titles hopes that Martinez can stay healthy and be a big run producer in the middle of their line-up. I wouldn’t count on much from Papi, and that leaves Martinez and Youkilis as the main run producers, and Youkilis is more of an OBP type of guy.
Best Newcomer: John Lackey, SP
Boston was a surprise destination for Lackey. When they let Jason Bay go, it seemed they might spend their money on Matt Holliday, but instead they went for an area they were already solid in, starting pitching. Lackey is a big game pitcher, with a 2.43 ERA over 33.1 IP in the last 2 post seasons. He’s had some injury concerns, and hasn’t been quite as good as he was in 2007 the last 2 years, but the idea of Beckett/Lackey/Lester lining up in the playoffs is still a scary thought for other AL teams.
2. New York Yankees (AL Ranks: Best Line-Up, 2nd best rotation)
Why I Have Them Here
It’s not a knock on the Yankees to have them here. I believe they will be the 2nd best team in baseball in 2010 behind the Red Sox, and could very well repeat. I have them here because it’s very hard to repeat, and they had a lot of good fortune last year (with the exception of the A-Rod injury) and that doesn’t always carry over from year-to-year. Nothing against the squad, just the law of averages.
Biggest Concern: Will age be a factor?
This always seems to be a big factor for the Yankees, as they sign so many people to long contracts. Sometimes it bites them (2008), sometimes it doesn’t (2009). In 2010, they still have several key players over 35 including Andy Pettitte (37), Mariano Rivera (40), Derek Jeter (35), Jorge Posada (38) and Alex Rodriguez (turning 35 in July). I’m not expecting any of them to fall off a cliff (though Posada might have a chance), but you never know what will happen to players once they reach that age. Except for…
Most Important Player: Mariano Rivera, RP
For all the talent the Yankees have paraded through the Bronx over the last decade, none has mattered more to the team than Mariano Rivera. Since he became the closer in 1997, Rivera has had an average season of a 2.04 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, and 40 saves. Only 11 pitchers other than Rivera have had a single season of that caliber, and Rivera has done it for thirteen years. After 2008, every Phillies fan knows the comfort you have with a closer you know will get the job done. 2009 showed us the terror that comes with the opposite. Since 1997, the Yankees haven’t had to think twice, and I can’t think of anything more valuable than that, nor can I think of what would happen if that security blanket suddenly wasn’t there.
Best Newcomer: Curtis Granderson
Javier Vazquez was tremendous last year, but moving to a hitters park, in the toughest division in baseball, in a city he couldn’t handle before and starting in big-time games, where he has routinely come up short, doesn’t really give me a lot of confidence he isn’t going to implode. Granderson on the other hand was stuck in a horrible situation last year with Detroit, and has regressed his last 2 seasons after his amazing 2007 campaign. However, his left handed stroke is going to get him a lot more hits in the new Yankee Stadium and he is going to score a TON of runs in their line-up. Granderson is a very likable guy, it’s too bad I now have to hate him. Other players on the “likable guy, now I have to hate them” team: Johan Santana, Carlos Delgado, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixiera, Jason Giambi, David Cone.
3. Tampa Bay Rays (AL Ranks: 5th best Line-Up, 3rd best rotation)
Why I Have Them Here
I love this team, I really do. Right now they are easily my 2nd favorite team behind the Phils. (Other teams I root for: Twins, Brewers, Athletics and Red Sox to an extent). They have loads of young talent, with loads more coming, they let us win the World Series and they are so easy to root for as the underdog against the Yanks and Sox. Unfortunately, I have them here because they aren’t the Yanks and Sox. A lot of their young players had some growing pains last year (most notably B.J. Upton) and they don’t have unlimited funds to hide their weaknesses. Can they win the division? Absolutely. They just need a lot more to go right, because they don’t have a bank account as a back-up plan.
Biggest Concern: The lack of realignment
I will probably be able to copy and paste the above paragraph for as long as the Rays are in the same division as Boston and New York. I know it would be a big deal to separate the Sox and Yanks because of their rivalry, but its completely unfair to these 3 teams. The Rays are a top-5 team in baseball right now, and for the 2nd straight year, they will likely miss the playoffs. Realignment would be very tough to do and would probably include a couple teams switching leagues to make it work, but unless it happens, baseball in Tampa, Baltimore, and Toronto is going to rot away because their is no hope for the fan bases. You at least need hope. That is partially why the NFL is so successful, the way it is set-up, teams are able to have quick turnarounds. You are always potentially one year away.
Most Important Player: David Price, SP
The Rays have a host of solid starters in Jamie Shields, Matt Garza and Jeff Niemann. However, the one guy who truly has dominant ace potential is the 24-year-old David Price. Price struggled more than expected in his rookie year, going 10-7 with a 4.42 ERA, but he showed signs of his potential. But can he make the leap this year, like Cole Hamels did for the Phillies in 2008? To do so, he needs to locate his slider better. According to FanGraphs, his slider was one of the worst in baseball last year. Considering his stuff has been compared to Randy Johnson, that shouldn’t happen. He got the stuff, but whether he can refine it (and when he can refine it) will say a lot about whether the Rays can pull an upset in the AL East.
Best Newcomer: Rafael Soriano
This was a great pick-up for the Rays, who limped through last year with nine different pitchers recording a save. Soriano should provide them some stability at the back end of their bullpen. He struck out a ridiculous 102 hitters in 75.2 IP as a reliever last year and sported a 2.97 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. This will be the first time he is the closer on a contender, so it will be interesting to how he handles the pressure.
4. Baltimore Orioles (AL Ranks: 7th best Line-Up, 11th best rotation)
Why I Have Them Here
Because there is nowhere else to put them. The 3 teams ahead of them are 3 of the best in baseball, the team below them is among the worst. However, the Orioles are worth talking about because one could argue that they have the best young core of players in baseball right now. OF Nick Markakis (26), OF Adam Jones (24), C Matt Wieters (23), LHP Brian Matusz (23), RHP Chris Tillman (21) and OF Nolan Reimold (26) are all/or have been big time prospects. They look a lot like the Rays did a couple years ago, but the question is…
Biggest Concern: Will the young studs ever be good enough?
Will the group mentioned above turn into Hamels/Utley/Howard/Rollins and lead the Orioles to the promised land? Or will they turn into one of the many groups of young, promising players that never met their potential at the same time, if at all. All of the players mentioned above, with the exception of Reimold, have the potential to be perennial all-stars and chances are at least one will be. But for a team like this, you really need to get lucky and have 3-4 of them reach that level for the team to succeed.
Most Important Player: Matt Wieters, C
The prospect with the most talent might just be Matt Wieters, who was ranked as the top prospect in all of baseball last year before he was called up. His minor league numbers were staggering for a catcher, with a 1.014 OPS in 693 ABs. He hit for average (.305), power (32 HR) and showed tremendous patience (.438 OBP). Many people (myself included) expected him to light the league on fire last year with his arrival, but that just didn’t happen. He struggled a bit, finishing the year with a .753 OPS, but he ended on a tear, with an .882 OPS and .395 OBP in September and October. The Orioles hope he puts a full season of that together in 2010.
Best Newcomer: Kevin Millwood
I hate Kevin Millwood. I really do. I was so excited when we traded him, and I really thought we were finally going to make the playoffs with him and Jim Thome. After his no-hitter in April of 2003, we all could feel it. But then? In his 54 starts following the no hitter, he went 19-17 with a 4.42 ERA, a bad attitude, and the air that wasn’t really trying all that hard. Between him, Jose Mesa and Vicente Padilla, it’s a miracle I survived 2003-2006. Now? He followed up 2 straight 5+ ERA seasons in 2007/08 with a very solid 2009 (198 IP, 3.67 ERA). The Orioles hope he can anchor their young staff. Other notable additions for the O’s include Miguel Tejada, Mike Gonzalez and Garrett Atkins.
5. Toronto Blue Jays (AL Ranks: 8th best Line-Up, 14th best rotation)
Why I Have Them Here
They traded away the one piece of their team worth talking about (Roy Halladay) and are in complete and total rebuilding mode. Not much more to say.
Biggest Concern: Are there any fans left?
The Blue Jays don’t have a lot going for them right now. They are in an impossible division. They tried spending money over the last several years and failed miserably. They traded the face of their franchise. They have pretty stupid uniforms. They don’t have a particularly new stadium (though I like the Rogers Centre) and aside from the prospects they got in the Halladay deal, they don’t have much of a farm system. It’s a tough time to be a Blue Jays fan right now, and I could see the Jays falling off the face of the earth and becoming the new Pirates or Royals with people beginning to talk about relocation.
Most Important Player: Kyle Drabek
If you read the blog, you know I’m not as high on Kyle Drabek as many are. I was much more disappointed we gave up Michael Taylor than Drabek. For Toronto fans, Drabek represents a glimmer of hope, the “jewel” they got for trading away their favorite player. If he doesn’t pan out, the trade will likely be dubbed a failure. So what do I see Drabek doing? I think he has a chance to be a nice pitcher, I don’t think he will be dominant enough to be an ace, and he seems like kind of a head-case to me when I’ve heard him talk. He might be better suited as a closer, but if he sticks as a starter, I’d predict a career similar to Brett Myers.
Best Newcomer: Brett Wallace
The other part of the Halladay deal (traded from Oakland for Taylor), Wallace is a “big-time” prospect who has already been traded twice, which to me means he’s not a superstar in waiting. Judging by his minor league numbers, he can hit a bit, and will probably be a 20-25 HR guy with slightly above average OBP and SLG%. I think they will regret trading Taylor for him.
Would you have traded Dominic Brown instead of Taylor? With Taylor being a more similar player to Werth, who we most likely won’t be able to re-sign, I think its a legitimate question.
Kevin -
No – I would have kept Brown over Taylor. Not sure who we could have replaced him with. Maybe Anthony Gose?
In my own world – I would have done the Halladay and Lee deal (only gotten more for Lee). Then traded Ryan Howard for Matt Cain, and then put Werth or Michael Taylor at 1st base. Use the money I saved on Howard to sign Werth and Cain long term and maybe add another bullpen piece. Then replace Ibanez with Brown in 2011.
I like it, except Ruben wouldn’t be able to step foot outside after making that trade. Most wouldn’t understand it. Two years ago(before the Cy Youngs) I heard a rumor of a Howard for Lincecum trade. How great would that have been?
Giants have Lincecum AND Cain and still can’t even make the playoffs let alone win the WS. Yes Yes pitching is important, but we have enough of it with Halladay and Hamels. Howard is the only player on this team that can carry it for a month at a time. How quickly we forget how Lee AND Howard carried the Phillies to the WS last year, not just Lee. As good as Utley is, howard is the only RBI machine and losing him isn’t worth a player that can only carry us 1 of 5 games at the very most. Howard is the straw that stirs that lineup. I wouldn’t trade Howard under any circumstances. Let him walk in 2 years. Take your shot winning one or two more titles while you can. When he goes the window is closed.
And thank goodness the trade of Lincecum for Howard two years ago didn’t happen. We probably would not have made the playoffs (remeber they slipped in on Howards late season bombing run), let alone win the WS. We needed to win every game down the stretch, not just 2 of 5.
Huh, some interesting stuff their. Trading Howard for Cain, etc, etc and etc.
I think Gonzo and Fielder are free agents in two years like Howard (i think), assuming gonzo and fielder dont sign an extension with their current club (doubt it) or to a club they get traded to (likely, imo). I can see the Phils signing Howard to an extension with those three out there in FA. Anyways…… its a long time for now so it does matter to me right now.
phillyfan-
you think if we had Lincecum for the entire season, a late stretch run would not have been necessary. No way to tell of course.
I’ll almost always take pitching over hitting. Not to mention that I think Taylor would have picked up some of the slack for Howard, and we could have used the $20 million we saved elsewhere (maybe sign Figgins over Polanco). We would not be lacking for offense with the line-up above, and Halladay, Hamels, Cain would get us another pennant in the playoffs.
How could we still have Taylor if you still do the Halladay trade?
The blue jays will surprise a lot of you idiot writers this year. I am predicting a third place finish, 78 wins. And for you to compare the jays to kc, and Pittsburgh is appalling.
Easy there – big guy. Can’t call us idiots until it comes true.
They had 75 wins last year, lost the best pitcher in baseball, and the teams around them improved and you are are predicting an improvement? I really hope you don’t work on Wall Street.
As for the Royals and Pittsburgh comp – the Jays need to do what the O’s and Rays have done to be competitive in this division (throw lots of money into the draft) – prior to the Phillies trade, they were ranked by BA as the 3rd worst system in all of baseball.
So they finished with 75 wins last year, got notably worse for this year, and have a horrible system. That’s the recipe for long-term failure, my friend.
You should maybe delete your bluejays section and your previous comment Pete. lol
I guess the poster was correct. You are an idiot.
yeah, cause everyone who doesn’t get every prediction correct is an idiot.
excellent use of logic.
I’m sure you predicted Jose Bautista’s 54 HR season in February.
yup.
also, even without his 54 HR they were still #2 in the league in HR.
You clearly are not good at assessing organizations. Pertaining to the jays, they have a nice young rotation sans halladay, and good team defense. Your prediction was way off. Be less ignorant in the future when trying to write something and don’t just simulate seasons on your mlb 2010 for playstation to determine how well teams will do.
Thanks!
Chris,
As you can see, this is a Philadelphia sports blog. So no, when I do my MLB previews, I am unable to do a full organizational assessment of every team. Particularly inconsequential organizations such as Toronto.
I don’t back off anything I said about Toronto. No one could have predicted Bautistas quick rise, or Vernon Wells’ comeback. I personally didnt think Romero and Cecil would be ready, nor did I think Marcum would stay healthy. If you thought this and you wrote it down somewhere, good for you. I’m sure you predicted a Giants over Rangers World Series too. I’m looking forward to reading your 2010 preview.
The fact that you feel vindicated in some way because your organization finished 4th in their division with 85 wins shows how sad the organization really is.
Can’t wait to put my Roy Halladay Phillies jersey on again for next season.
Also, there is a recent post up with my early 2011 rankings. Feel free to comment on the Jays over there instead of hiding in a post from a year ago.
I am not saddened in the least by the blue jays. In any other division they are championship contenders. To say they are inconsequential shows that you do not have the unbiased and objective attitude required to write articles; rather it’s just opinion. Let alone respect for the sport. You seem to be just some tubby chilli dog choking clueless bandwagon fan when you speak. Which shows me you shouldn’t ever write anymore.
Furthermore, I hope Halladay does win a championship. He is a great pitcher, and more than that, a quality stand up individual. All of Toronto is rooting for him and is happy for any success and accolades he receives in the future; it is well deserved . Your attempt at a dig was unsuccessful.
“To say they are inconsequential shows that you do not have the unbiased and objective attitude required to write articles; rather it’s just opinion.”
I believe you have a fundamental misconception of what a blog is.
“Let alone respect for the sport. You seem to be just some tubby chilli dog choking clueless bandwagon fan when you speak.”
These 2 sentences show me that you have a serious problem reading people, how little you have read this blog, how you are childishly just trying to get a rise out of me, and that you are bored enough with your life you are combing through year-old articles on random blogs to try to try to get a rise out of complete strangers and boost your own self-worth. It’s Christmas and the Phillies just signed Cliff Lee back, you really think you can make me angry?
As for being wrong about the Blue Jays being inconsequential. Here is a list of teams that haven’t made the playoffs since the strike in 1994:
Toronto Blue Jays
Kansas City Royals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Montreal Expos / Washington Nationals.
That’s it.
Strangely, despite how impossible your division is, you are the only team from the AL East on that list. And you aren’t getting of it anytime soon.
I hope you can see the irony in you calling me bias, while simultaneously arguing that a team on the same list as the Pirates, Royals and Nats is a consequential ball club.
It’s great that you support your team and have an optimistic outlook on them, as I did with the Phillies from 1994-2006. The Blue Jays do have some promising talent, and frankly, I hope they make the playoffs one of these years. But if you think anyone outside of Toronto has thought about them in the last 15 years, you are just as objective as you claim I am.
Call me a bandwagoner, I’ll show you my signed Desi Relaford poster.
Desi, a shortstop for the ages! That poster will fetch you a pretty penny, literally.
I must have angered you, you put a lot of effort in to that. You are allowed to return to your biased writing now.
Chris, Show me a writer who’s unbiased. The stuff of life. I feel for you as a fan of an underdog. And understand that I have not forgotten the sting of losing my red leaf Blue Jays cap on a Tampa to Phila flight. It was a dandy and I haven’t replaced it. Good luck in ’11.