ReclinerGM’s 2010 MLB Preview: AL West

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Along with the NL West, this was the toughest division for me to pick. On paper, Seattle had one of, if not the best off-seasons. Anaheim had one of the worst. Therefore, nearly everyone is picking Seattle to overtake Anaheim without much of a 2nd thought – but I don’t see it that way.

Los Angeles won 97 games last year. Yes, they lost John Lackey and Chone Figgins, but they picked up Joel Pinero, Hideki Matsui and Fernando Rodney and get a full year from Scott Kazmir, who pitched well down the stretch for them. Yes, Seattle picked up Figgins and Cliff Lee, but they were last in the AL in runs by a lot and lost their 2nd biggest run producer in Russell Branyan and replaced him with the actually crazy Milton Bradley. Right now, their 3rd highest RBI guy from 2009 is Ken Griffey Jr., who knocked in 57. It’s going to be close, no doubt about that, and it will probably come down to dumb luck – but I’m taking the Angels, as I will explain below.

(Note: I also have my final AL rankings at the bottom)

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (AL Ranks: 4th best Line-Up,  6th best rotation)

Why I Have Them Here

I kind of explained it above – but basically they are more well-rounded than Seattle, who is going to have to win pretty much on pitching and defense every night. The Angels are solid on offense led by Kendry Morales, who quietly had 34 HR, 108 RBI and a .924 OPS last year at age 26. Juan Rivera, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu and Hideki Matsui give them 5 guys who can knock in 80+ runs. They have depth in their rotation – something Seattle can’t say – and they have a solid bullpen with Fuentes, Rodney and they hope a healthy Scot Shields. They have a chance to win every night.

Biggest Concern: Can Brandon Wood replace Figgins?

Brandon Wood is a very, very confusing player. In 2005, he had a ridiculous season in the minors, hitting 43 HR’s and sporting a 1.047 OPS at age 20. He vaulted to a top-10 prospect is all of baseball and seemed to be the next big thing for the Angels. But, every time he’s been brought up to the majors, he’s struggled mightily. His numbers in Triple-A since 2006 (76 HR, .903 OPS in 1,364 ABs) aren’t even close to his dreadful MLB numbers in the same time period (7 HR, .535 OPS in 224 ABs). The Angels are hoping having a full-time job will help him find a rhythm in the majors and realize his potential.

Most Important Player: Scott Kazmir, SP

From 2006-2008, only 2 pitchers in baseball pitched at least 500 IP with an ERA under 3.50 while striking out over a batter an inning. Jake Peavy and Scott Kazmir. Given this fact, it was somewhat alarming how quickly the Rays dumped Kazmir when he hit a prolonged rough patch last season. He seemed somewhat rejuvenated in Anaheim, posting a 1.73 ERA in 6 starts with the team. If he can regain his pre-2009 form (and that’s not a stretch, considering he’s only 26), it would go a long way to replacing John Lackey in the rotation.

Best Newcomer: Hideki Matsui, DH

Matsui quietly had another quality season last year, with the 2nd most HR in his career (28) and the 3rd highest OPS (.876). The biggest issue for him is health, as he missed about 50 games last season despite not playing in the field. Like the Bobby Abreu signing last year, this was a smart low-risk, high-reward move for the Angels that could pay off.

2. Seattle Mariners  (AL Ranks: 12th best Line-Up, 4th best rotation)

Why I Have Them Here

The most exciting 1-2 starters in baseball. We all know about Cliff Lee, but he’s actually the 2nd best starter on this team. King Feliz Hernandez has lived up to his considerable hype. Last year, at age 22, he went 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA in 238 IP, striking out 217 – arguably the best season for a pitcher that age since Roger Clemens in 1986 and Doc Gooden in 1985. He might have the best stuff in baseball – a 95mph fastball and an 87mph slider, all with filthy movement. We could be on the cusp of  a 5-year period where he just dominates.

Biggest Concern: Who is driving in runs?

They got the front end starters, they’ve got great defense, they’ve got great hitters at the top of their line-up (Ichiro and Figgins), but when it comes to run production, they’ve got nothing. They’ve got Jose Lopez, who knocked in 96 runs last year pretty much by default, as he did so with a .766 OPS (the worst of any player with 95+ RBI). Franklin Gutierrez knocked in 70 with a .764 OPS. Ichiro is the only returning player who had an OPS over .800 last year. By comparison, the Phillies had 5 – and Carlos Ruiz (.780) would be the 6th ahead of Lopez, Gutierrez et al. They needed Jason Bay, but after spending so much money, they had to settle for…

Most Important Player: Milton Bradley, OF

Bradley actually led the AL in OPS in 2008 (.999) before Chicago signed him to an idiotic 3-year deal. He clearly couldn’t handle the pressure there and had a predictable meltdown. The Mariners are hoping that coming to the quiet Northwest will help Bradley regain his form. He’s penciled in the 3-hole behind Ichiro and Figgins so his production, or lack thereof, is going to be huge for this team.

Best Newcomer: Cliff Lee, SP

As many Phillies’ fans lament the loss of Lee, there will be a lot of eyes on his performance this year. If we don’t win the World Series – everyone will say “we would have won it with Lee” as if it’s really that easy. Anyway, Lee has some stuff going for him (pitchers park, contract year, proving to the Phillies they picked the wrong guy) and some stuff going against him (6.12 ERA in his final 7 starts last year, foot injury, moving back to AL) this year. My guess is that he will end up with a very solid year, but out of the Cy Young discussion.

3. Texas Rangers (AL Ranks: 3rd best Line-Up, 12th best rotation)

Why I Have Them Here

This is a very talented offensive team. Ian Kinsler is challenging Utley for the best 2B in the league, Michael Young is still a hit machine, Josh Hamilton is an RBI machine and Nelson Cruz is a monster. Add Vlad Guerrero in as a DH, and they will out score a lot of people. But they are going to have to out score them, because…

Biggest Concern: What a shock, it’s starting pitching!

Since they opened their park in 1994, the Texas Rangers have had two, count em, two pitchers to pitch 200+ innings in a season with an ERA under 4.00. Ken Hill and Kenny Rogers. The worst team in baseball over that span, the Pirates, had six. So here’s how Texas’ pitching works: Once every 8 years they have one pitcher have a decent season. This year doesn’t appear to be any different. They traded away their best starter in Kevin Millwood and replaced him with the always-hurt Rich Harden. They have some nice arms on the farm, but none are ready for the big time.

Most Important Player: Scott Feldman, SP

Feldman is their best chance at a good season. He had a breakout year in ’09, winning 17 games, and sporting a 4.08 ERA in 189.2 IP. It’s unlikely he takes another step forward because he doesn’t have dominating stuff, but if he just stays stable at the top of the rotation, that would be a big help with this offense.

Best Newcomer: Vladimir Guerrero, DH

One of my favorite non-Phillies ever, it’s sad to see Vlad’s body breaking down. In his Expos’ days, he was the best young hitter I’d seen at the time and his ability to hit a pitch ANYWHERE it is thrown is still unmatched. Only 6 players in MLB history have 400+ HR’s while hitting over .320 for their career: Ruth, Williams, Gehrig, Musial, Foxx and Vlad. Add in his 175 steals, and he’s in a class by himself. I really hope he rejuvenates himself for one more season before it’s said and done.

4. Oakland Athletics (AL Ranks: Worst Line-Up, 8th best rotation)

Why I Have Them Here

They have the worst offense in the American League and they don’t have the pitching to back it up (though watch out for Brett Anderson this year). The A’s are loaded with prospects, including Michael Taylor, but not enough of them are ready to go so right now their line-up is full of former prospects who are now bordering on AAAA status and aging vets. The highest ’09 OPS in their line-up? Rajah Davis at .783, good for 95th in all of baseball.

Biggest Concern: Has Billy Beane lost “it”?

Beane was hands down the best GM is baseball from 2000-2006, where the A’s averaged 95 wins and made the playoffs 5 times with one of the smallest payrolls in baseball. Since then, Moneyball, has spread throughout the league and the A’s are back on the same page as everyone else, just another small market team relying on prospects and the occasional signing. It looks as though they are headed for another sub-80 win season (would be their 4th straight) and you wonder if Beane can find a new way to get ahead of everyone else.

Most Important Player: Ben Sheets, SP

Chances are the A’s signed Sheets for the same reason they traded for Matt Holliday last year – to trade him at the deadline. For that reason, it’s important that Sheets regains his 2008 form so that the A’s can get a bundle for him from a contender. Indications are that his stuff was back, but it’s really the durability that A’s should be worried about.

Best Newcomer: Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B

This was the A’s best shot at giving themselves some offense this year. Kouz isn’t a great hitter (.722 OPS), but did have some success driving in runs last year in San Diego (88). He looked to be a hitter on the rise in 2007, but regressed in 2008. The A’s hope a change of scenery is what he needs.

AL RANKINGS

Now that I’m done the AL teams, I’ll put my overall rankings here (with 2 teams in the top 5 missing the playoffs)….

1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. Seattle Mariners
6. Minnesota Twins
7. Chicago White Sox
8. Baltimore Orioles
9. Detroit Tigers
10. Texas Rangers
11. Oakland Athletics
12. Kansas City Royals
13. Toronto Blue Jays
14. Cleveland Indians