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Another very tough division to project, the NL West has 4 teams that could very easily win the division. While I don’t put W/L records here, I don’t think that there will be much difference between 1-4, and it could come down to a crazy race at the end.
1. Colorado Rockies (NL Ranks: 2nd best Line-Up, 8th best rotation)
Why I Have Them Here
If everything goes right, they could be the Phillies biggest obstacle to another pennant run. The Rockies (potentially) have everything. Speed at the top with Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler, run production with Tulo, Helton and Hawpe, and depth at the bottom of their line-up with Ianetta and a full year of Ian Stewart. They have a potential ace in Ubaldo Jimenez, a reliable innings eater in Aaron Cook, and 3 decent enough starters on the back. They have a closer, and a very good RH/LH set-up combo. They have a deep bench. They play great defense. Really they just need to step up and meet their potential.
Biggest Concern: Will it be ’08 all over again?
The previous paragraph could have easily been written prior to the 2008 season when the Rockies were coming off their first pennant in team history. But, the Rockies went 74-88, partially due to injuries to Tulo and Jeff Francis, but partially because a lot of guys they were counting on didn’t come through. Can they make the step to be more consistent this year?
Most Important Player: Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
The fire-balling Jimenez has improved each year he’s been in the majors, and last season was unquestionably the best season for a starting pitcher in Rockies history (218 IP, 3.47 ERA, 198 K). The way I see it, he’s got 2 options this year. First, he improves once again and become to the Rockies what Hamels was for the Phillies in ’08. Or, his increased workload over the past several years catches up to him and he either gets hurt or regresses.
Best Newcomer: Jeff Francis, LHP
The Rockies didn’t sign anyone exciting, so I’m going with Francis, who missed all of ’09 with injury. Francis looked like he was an up-and-comer in 2006-07, but got hurt in ’08 and missed ’09. If he gets back to form (4.19 ERA in 414 IP in 06-07) it could give the Rockies a formidable 1-2-3 in the playoffs.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (NL Ranks: 10th Best Line-Up, 3rd best rotation)
Why I Have Them Here
Arguably the best top-of-the-rotation in baseball with Dan Haren and presumably healthy Brandon Webb. Their trade for Edwin Jackson was risky, but gives them a top-3 that rivals anyone in the NL. Haren might not get the press the Lincecum, King Felix, Greinke and other young aces do, but he’s right there with them. Over the past 2 years, Haren had the lowest WHIP of any pitchers with at least 400 innings, 1.06. Last year, his WHIP was 1.00, a mark usually reserved for a dominant closer.
Biggest Concern: Can they hit enough?
The D-Backs have a superstar in the making in Justin Upton and a big-bopper in Mark Reynolds, but after that, they have a whole lot of young guys that haven’t quite reached their potential. They signed Adam LaRoche and Kelly Johnson to try to give the offense a little more depth, but they really need Miguel Montero to repeat his breakout 2009 campaign and at least one of Stephen Drew/Chris Young/Conor Jackson to start living up to their potential.
Most Important Player: Brandon Webb, SP
It probably should be an offensive player, but the fact is that if Brandon Webb isn’t healthy, it won’t matter what their offense does. Webb finished in the top-2 of Cy Young voting (with 1 win) for 3 straight years prior to coming down with injury last year. He’s a sinkerball pitcher, so he has a better chance of regaining his form than a power pitcher, but it’s not a guarantee. Considering the promising reports in spring training and the fact that this a contract-year for Webb, I anticipate a good season from him. If not though, you can forget this 2nd place finish.
Best Newcomer: Edwin Jackson, SP
In 2004, when Jackson was rated the 4th best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America, and deemed untouchable by the Dodgers, you would never have thought that’d he be pitching for his 4th team by 2010, still just 26 years old. Jackson has a special arm (4th highest FB velocity for a starter in 2009), but wasn’t able to reign it in until last season with the Tigers. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the first half of the year with a 2.52 ERA – but some bad luck (.249 BABIP in first half vs. .319 BABIP in 2nd half) and some arm fatigue slowed him down in the 2nd half, where he had a 5.05 ERA. The D-Backs are hoping a switch to the NL and a full season of health will result in big time results for Jackson.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (NL Ranks: 3rd best Line-Up, 6th best rotation)
Why I Have Them Here
Because they are relying too much on Manny Ramirez, Rafael Furcal, Hiroki Kuroda, Russell Martin and the Floatilla, among others. For the 2nd straight year they went to the NLCS, and for the 2nd straight year, they didn’t do much to improve in the off-season. After Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney and Clayton Kershaw, they are relying on too many old guys that could regress in a big way. Ramirez heads that list, as he will have to go for his first full non-PED season in who knows how long. The 0nly reason I still think they can win the division is that Joe Torre has a great history of keeping teams like this together.
Biggest Concern: Ownership discord
In case you haven’t heard, the Dodgers owners are getting divorced and the whole organization is suffering. Recently, in the divorce proceedings, this came out:
The Dodgers could seek to keep their player payroll below last year’s level through 2018 while the average ticket price and club revenue could nearly double, according to confidential financial documents included in a court filing last week.
The Dodgers spent 46% of revenue on player compensation in 2007 and 42% in 2008, according to the documents. The projections call for that percentage to fall to 25% by 2013 and remain at about 25% through 2018.
Commissioner Bud Selig encourages teams to spend about one-half their revenue on player compensation, according to two high-ranking major league executives contacted by The Times.
If the Dodgers had any real fans, they might revolt. It’s hard to bet on a team that is openly trying to downgrade their roster.
Most Important Player: Chad Billingsley, RHP
Big things were expected from Billingsley in 2009, but he came up short, not even making a post-season start. If he can return to 2008 form (200 IP, 3.14 ERA), and Clayton Kershaw can avoid a sophomore slump, the Dodgers might just have enough young guys to take the division for a 3rd straight year.
Best Newcomer: Reed Johnson, OF
That’s it. Reed Johnson. 4 HR, 22 RBI in 2009. Get pumped L.A.
4. San Francisco Giants (AL Ranks: 14th best Line-Up, Best rotation)
Why I Have Them Here
They are trendy pick because they “improved” their offense with Mark DeRosa, Aubrey Huff and a full season of Freddy Sanchez. I’m not buying it. DeRosa is a complimentary player that has been overrated in recent years because of his versatility. He strikes out a ton and doesn’t get on base (.319 OBP in 2009). Huff is a player in name only, with his RBI numbers masking the fact that his OPS was sub-.700 (think Pedro Feliz last year). Youngster Buster Posey could have provided a spark, but they stupidly re-signed the base-clogging Bengie Molina, and I’ve got to see another full season of greatness from Kung-Fu Panda (Pablo Sandoval) before I buy in.
Biggest Concern: Will they waste Tim Lincecum’s prime?
Lincecum has put together the best first 3 years of a career of any pitcher in MLB history, except Dwight Gooden and maybe Tom Seaver. When you have a transcendent player like this, you don’t want to look back on him 20 years later and wonder “what-if.” While I don’t think his delivery means he’s more likely to be injured, some scouts still do, and who knows how many more Cy Young years the Giants will get from Timmy (when you wear your hair like this, I call you Timmy). I believe they will have to make a bold move or two (Ryan Howard? Prince Fielder?) to get some big time offensive firepower on board to try to get him to the playoffs. Once there, they hope he can take them the rest of the way.
Most Important Player: Pablo Sandoval, 3B
Everyone is assuming that Sandoval will be the same player he was last year in his breakout campaign (.330 BA, 25 HR, .943 OPS). But only 8 3B in MLB history have ever put up those kind of numbers, and only 1 has done it twice (Chipper Jones, 2001 and 2007). I would expect a BA down closer to .300 for the Panda this year, with his OPS dropping a little as well.
Best Newcomer: Mark DeRosa
I know I ragged on DeRosa a little bit above, but he still remains their best addition. He replicated his HR and RBI numbers from 2008 in 2009, but his OPS dropped about 100 points in doing so. He’s a solid player, but if the Giants are expecting him to make a huge impact on this team, I think they are expecting too much.
5. San Diego Padres (AL Ranks: 16th best Line-Up, 16th best rotation)
Why I Have Them Here
Because they have the worst rotation and worst line-up in the NL.
Biggest Concern: Will they be the worst team ever?
Which leads to the question – do they have a chance to be one of the worst teams ever? The 2003 Detroit Tigers are the only team since the 1962 Mets to have a winning % under .300. If they trade Adrian Gonzalez, their best offensive player is rookie Kyle Blanks. Their best returning pitcher from last year is Kevin Correia. They have some promising talent in the minors lead by 2009 1st rounder Donovan Tate, but right now they have the worst collection of MLB talent in the league, and have a chance to have a historically bad season.
Most Important Player: Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
They need Gonzalez to tear it up this year so that they can trade him for a boat load of prospects. There is no point in keeping him around as they are not even close to contending. After that, they need to pump money into the draft and international market and wait 3-4 years and let it develop.
Best Newcomer: Jon Garland, SP
Kind of a pointless signing, but I guess you do have to show the fans that you care about winning a little bit. This will be Garland’s 5th team since 2007 despite putting up a decent 4.37 ERA in 609 IP over that time frame.
Pete, you think there is any chance Gonzalez goes anywhere not named Boston?
People are talking about that like the two organizations already have the deal in place. I was thinking about and think that Seattle may be a decent fit. I don’t know much about the kind of package they could put together, but they could use a guy like him in their lineup.
It appears that most of the other contenders would be supplanting an established producer by acquiring Gonzalez. Obviously, the Phills and Yanks wouldn’t be involved.
I would probably switch the Giants and the Diamondbacks. The D-Backs’ prospects were supposed to be good by now, and they’re not. While Upton might become one of the best players in the MLB, defensively they were terrible last year (including Upton) and I don’t think the pitching will be enough to put them in the two spot (and I’m guessing wild card contention?).
Chris-
Looking at all the teams. The teams that would be in contention, have need for a 1b/DH, have the prospects to get a deal done, and have the money to extend him…
Adam -
Yeah, admittedly going out on a limb with the D-backs. Lots of upside, but lots of downside too…
ah yes, the D-Backs with the pride of Haverford College (my alma mater), Josh Byrnes in the GM role.
He was an English major.
This is admittedly off topic, but I can’t stop thinking about the idea being thrown around of trading Howard for prospects mid-season or after the season is over to keep Werth and get our farm system back on track for better long term success. I see with the logic but how could RAJ ever justify that to the fans during a championship run like this? However, with that said, it’s going to reallllly suck losing Werth after this year and then possibly losing Howard after next season.
I suppose they will just have to let Werth walk since we have OF depth in the minors, then see how 2011 plays out. If they are out of contention in 2011 mid-season then they will look to move Howard. However, the tough choice comes if they are in contention by mid-season 2011 (most likely scenario). We’d be stuck with either losing Howard and only getting supplementary picks if we can’t resign him or trading him mid-season and giving up on the year but immediately getting a kings ransom in MLB or near MLB ready prospects enabling us to better compete long term.
Any thoughts?
I’ve been doing my fantasy baseball research recently and didn’t realize how good Tulo is (all I think about when I hear his name is that annoying chant last October)….I was shocked when I realized he is probably the 2nd best SS in baseball right now (only behind Hanley in my opinion). It’s amazing how much the SS position has fallen off in the past few seasons….
Pete- I agree with you partially on the d-backs. Except I see them winning this division I really like the strength of that starting rotation (assuming Webb is healthy). Also I think Edwin Jackson was one of if not the most underrated pitchers in baseball last year. I never realized he was such a highly regarded prospect just a few years ago….
Lastly, for a bit of entertainment check out the players the dodgers have signed this off-season. I think the combined salaries of all the players don’t add up to 1 year of Manny.
Drew,
IMO, as counterintuitive as it seems, trading Howard after this season would be the smart way to proceed if we want to keep this “championship window” open a while longer.
Today, I found an article by Tracy Ringolsby about the Rockies on foxsports.com that I think applies to our situation. I will post the bulk of it here:
A year ago, it was Matt Holliday who said goodbye to his teammates in Colorado, dealt to Oakland in a trade that turned into a bonanza for the Rockies after the front office decided it was not going to be able to agree on a multi-year deal to keep Holliday away from free agency.
This spring, it is Garrett Atkins who is missing.
Holliday and Atkins were two popular players who had spent their entire careers with the Rockies.
Their absence, however, has never been a clubhouse issue among the Rockies, who have created a unique mentality in this pro sports era of multi-million-dollar, multi-year contracts.
“From the time you start playing this game you play to win a World Series, and the only way to get that done is to get together a group of guys who know how to play the game right,’’ shortstop Troy Tulowitzki said. “We have a group of guys here who are not concerned about contracts and things outside of baseball.
“They are committed to not just winning, but winning with the Rockies. We had some great guys who left and I know they wanted to win as much as the next guy, but they had other things that they felt were important and we respect that. We wish them well.’’
“What you want to create is a situation where you can bring up a young player and they can be fit into a core of veterans instead of a case (that many mid-market and small market teams face) of breaking in a number of young players at the same time, meaning you go through a learning curve where you have no chance to win initially,’’ O’Dowd said.
“The only way a mid-market team can win over a sustained period is to have a core group of guys that are willing to work within the parameters of the organization,’’ general manager Dan O’Dowd said. “They may not get as much money as they could find in other places, but they have to be driven by more than money.
“They are still going to be paid well, don’t get me wrong. But each of them is willing to give up something for the benefit of the whole.’’
“I’m not passing judgment on players who have moved on, but most of our players have stepped up and bought into the concept. It’s not about worth. That’s arbitrary. It’s about what we can afford to try and keep the core of players together. And if a player feels he is better served moving on, then we have to hope we have younger players ready to take their place or we get younger players in return.’’
I am in no way saying that we are a small or a mid-market club. However, it sounds similar to the approach that we have taken to get where we are. On top of that, even though we are operating at a higher financial level than the Rockies, we still find ourselves at our payroll limit and will need to work under that constraint going forward. Employing this strategy sounds like a logical way to proceed to me.
To that end, Howard, as difficult as he would be to trade from a fan-friendly or a team-loyalty perspective, really is the low hanging fruit here.
Amaro seems to be able to leverage what we’ve got here to get players to take less to play here, so if Howard buys into it (he seems to have done it once already with his current contract) and decides to take less money and/or years (a la Halladay), then fine. If not, if he really wants the mega-contract, then I think we need to move him and do what’s best for the long-term good of the club. We will be able to fill two spots on the diamond with quality players for what we would be paying him alone, not to mention what we could get back for him.
Also, I find gradual turnover every year preferable to keeping everyone until a huge payroll bill comes due in a few years and then having to make wholesale changes that will most likely be more disruptive.
Since we’re on the subject of Ryan Howard, I found an article by Tom Verducci on si.com about how breaking balls (along with left-handed pitching, which is why it would be great to keep a right-handed bopper like Werth instead) are breaking him down.
It is a long one, loaded with numbers and percentages that clearly illustrate the staggering number of breaking balls he sees and how they are his undoing, but it is worth the time. Here are the last two paragraphs:
Howard crushes right-handed fastballs. He hits about one home run for every two strikeouts off right-handers’ fastballs. But look how the odds grow tremendously against him as the ball spins and/or comes from lefties: roughly one homer for every three strikeouts against right-handers’ breaking balls, and one homer for at least every 11 punchouts against lefties’ fastballs and breaking balls. Here’s another way to put it: Howard saw 1,129 breaking balls and hit only 17 of them for home runs, including just three from left-handers.
The bottom line is that the book on Howard is the most extreme scouting report in the game. The guy sees more breaking balls than anybody else in baseball, he sees more and more of them every year, and after what the Yankees did to him in the World Series, he should expect even more of them this year. Looks like Howard and Uncle Charlie will be spending a whole lot more time together.
Drew-
It’s hard to come up with a solution before this season plays out (Either player could have a real bad season, or particularly good season). But the justification for trading Howard would be…
If Howard were willing to take a shorter deal (3-4 years) – I’d be OK with that.
The theory (and it’s more fact than theory) is that if you lose Howard, you don’t lost 140 RBI a year. Someone else moves into his spot and takes advantage of those situations and you probably lose like 20 RBI a year. You would also theoretically improve defense and baserunning (particularly if you move Werth to 1B). You’d lose some excitement with the long HR’s – but not many games.
Without an unlimited payroll, spending $20 million on one player handcuffs you in other areas. The only guys worth $20 million on this team are Halladay and Utley.
Thanks for the responses. I pretty much agree with everything. I hope RAJ makes the right decision. Whatever decision he makes, it’s guaranteed to be a hard one.
What are you on Pete??? I’m a White Sox fan, but you have to acknowledge that the Dodgers have the best lineup in the division, and maybe the National League. The Diamondbacks dont have the x-factor to get there, and my Rockies just arent ready at this point. Everyone is forgetting one HUGE detail: the Dodgers farm system. They have 8 or 9 Major League ready players, and their top 3 pithcers are 3,4, and 5 according to Buster Olney on the top pitching prospects list. Dodgers will win the division, but the Rockies will get the Wild Card.
Chase -
I love when people act crazy and act as though they can see the future. What am I on? Common sense pills? I don’t know.
The Rockies scored more runs than the Dodgers last year and have far more players on the upswing of their careers (5 of their 8 regulars are 26 or younger). The Dodgers have 2 big holes in the line-up in the 7 and 8 spots. Not to mention I’m not exactly counting on big years from the now-36 Casey Blake or the now-not-on-PEDs Manny Ramirez.
You are also 100% incorrect about their farm system. Baseball Prospectus ranks them as the 18th best in baseball and their 2 best pitching prospects are 21 years old and won’t be ready for at least 2 years. Keith Law of ESPN ranks their system 19th in baseball and has their top pitcher 83rd in his top 100. I could go on, but I’ll let you do the research to see that you aren’t even close.
So no, I didn’t miss that huge (non-existent) detail.
Great prediction! You couldn’t have done it any better. Padres were almost the “worst team in history” when they almost beat out the national league champions to be Giants on the last game of their 90-win season. The D-backs almost sneaked by there though…
Amazing job! Keep up the great work.