Other ReclinerGM 2010 MLB previews
Both of these areas were critical to our World Championship in 2008, and both were significantly worse during our 2009 run that fell short. The bench went 1 for 31 in the playoffs, and was given an overhaul in the off-season with 3 new players (Brian Schneider, Juan Castro, Ross Gload) brought in. Add in the mid-season acquisition of Ben Francisco and Greg Dobbs is the only player left from 2009′s opening day bench.
The bullpen blew game after game in the regular season, particularly at the end of games, and while they were OK in the playoffs (4.20 ERA), they still left a lot to be desired. Out is Brett Myers, Clay Condrey, Chan Ho Park and Scott Eyre. In comes Danys Baez, Jose Contreras and Antonio Bastardo and a parade of youngsters. Whether or not they are better though, depends largely on the 2nd most important player on this team this year, and the first player I’ll evaluate here…
Bullpen
Closer – Brad Lidge
2009 Recap: Simply and accurately put, one of the worst seasons by a reliever in MLB history. Only Shawn Chacon, a starter pitching as a closer in Coors’ Field, has had a season with 30+ saves while sporting a ERA over 7.00 and a WHIP over 1.80. Lidge struggled with his location on his slider and hitters just waited on his fastball and crushed it. In his final appearance, he gave up 3 runs in the 9th inning, taking the loss in the critical Game 4 of the World Series. It’s hard to know how much of his problems were injury related (he had 2 off-season surgeries) and how much were mental. What we do know is that we never want to speak of his 2009 season again.
2010 Outlook: The obvious answer is he’ll be somewhere in-between 2008 and 2009, but the distance is so wide (1.95 to 7.21) that it could encompass “elite closer” and “horrible failure” while still meeting the criteria. My personal guess on Lidge is that he falls somewhere into the high-3′s ERA-wise, blows about 6-7 saves and saves about 40 games. Essentially an average to slightly above-average closer. His stuff is still there and I think his off-season surgeries will help him get back on track. If it doesn’t, I really hope Charlie has a shorter leash than he did last year, because that was seriously painful to watch.
Set-Up Man – Ryan Madson
2009 Recap: Looked poised to become the premiere set-up guy in the National League after following up his dominating post-season performance with a 1.95 ERA and 35 K in 32.1 IP on June 14. But he went through a rough patch in the middle of the season, including a particularly bad attempt at being Lidge’s replacement. Overall, his numbers were solid and he was one of 6 relievers in baseball to pitch over 75 innings with over a strike-out per inning.
2010 Outlook: Madson is at the point in his career where it’s hard to forecast anything different than what he’s been giving us. He’s put together 3 straight years of very similar production, though last year his strike-out numbers did improve. He’s the only non-closer in baseball to pitch over 215 innings the last 3 years with an ERA under 3.15. It’s possible he could build off his increased K/9 number and put together a signature season. But 70 innings, low-3 ERA is likely what we are going to get. And that’s just fine.
7th Inning – Danys Baez
2009 Recap: Here’s my post about Baez when we signed him. After not pitching at all in 2008, Baez had a nice comeback year in 2009, posting a 4.02 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in the tough AL East. Much of his success came from a new-found split-finger fastball, a pitch only Jose Valverde threw more often.
2010 Outlook: Tough to figure. If you assume he stays healthy and keeps his arm strength from last year, you’d have to think he’d be pretty good. As I said in the linked post above, if you take out his appearances against the Yankees and Red Sox, he had a 3.37 ERA and 1.07 WHIP against NL-caliber teams last year. He appears to have re-invented himself with the split fingered fastball, and hopefully he enjoys late success in Philly. My fear? I can’t remember a FA middle relief pitcher we’ve signed at the end of his career that has worked out as planned. Arthur Rhodes, Tim Worrell, Roberto Hernandez or Antonio Alfonseca come to mind.
Middle Relief – Chad Durbin
2009 Recap: Durbin increased his K/9 (6.5 to 8.0) and decreased his H/9 (8.3 to 7.2) and yet his ERA went from 2.87 to 4.39. Why the jump? Some of it can be attributed to the unpredictability of middle relievers (read a great Jayson Stark piece on this here) and some can be attributed to the fact that he flat out lost control of the strike zone. His BB/9 increased from 3.6 to 6.1, the 3rd worst mark in the majors among relievers with 65 IP.
2010 Outlook: Durbin is a perfectly average reliever. His ERA will likely depend far more on luck than how good a pitcher he is. If he can reduce his walks and keep his H/9 and K/9 rates stable, he will give himself a better chance though.
Middle Relief – J.C. Romero
2009 Recap: Romero only pitched 16.2 innings due to injury and while he didn’t give up many runs (2.70 ERA) he couldn’t find the strike zone with 13 walks.
2010 Outlook: I’m really not expecting anything from Romero this year. He hardly pitched last year and it can’t be good that he is still not ready to go. Wouldn’t surprise me if he comes back and immediately gets lost for the season again. I’m hoping Bastardo can step into his spot.
Long Man – Jose Contreras
2009 Recap: Contreras stunk it up as a starter with a 5.42 ERA for the White Sox before being traded to the Rockies. The Rockies used him as a reliever and he seemed to take to it, as he gave up only 1 run in 5 relief appearances.
2010 Outlook: I’m actually optimistic about Contreras. He seemed suited for a relief role with a strong fastball (92mph as a starter, so probably up to 94-95mph in short bursts) and a strong secondary pitch (splitter). He can just use his power arm instead of toning it down to last 5-6 innings. I’m not sure he’ll be as good as Park was at the end of the year, but I think he will be an adequate replacement.
Up For Grabs – Antonio Bastardo, Scott Mathieson, Sergio Escalona, Mike Zagurski, David Herndon
2010 Outlook: There will definitely be one extra spot open in the pen, but there could be as many as 3 if Lidge and Romero aren’t ready for opening day. Bastardo seems to have a leg-up on the rest after reading this quote from Rich Dubee: “He’s got everything we’re looking for in a left-handed pitcher. His presence in this camp has been outstanding.” I’ve stated a million times I think Mathieson should be on the roster from day 1. He’s throwing hard enough to dominate and who knows how long his arm will hold up – no use wasting those innings on AAA hitters. Escalona would seem to have the edge on 3rd spot since he was up last year, but they might give Herndon a spot since he’s a rule 5 pick and would have to be returned to Anaheim. This is one of the “battles” in the spring and all these guys stats will matter.
Bench
Catcher – Brian Schneider
2009 Recap: Schneider had his worst season a pro last year, appearing in only 59 games and sporting a depressing .627 OPS. His OPS has been over .700 only once since 2005. Can’t say he was worthy of a 2-year deal.
2010 Outlook: I can’t see Schneider being a huge upgrade over Paul Bako. Hopefully he gets a jolt from playing for his home town team. As he said when signed, “All my friends and family are die-hard Phillies fans.” Or, hopefully he hits FOR us like he always has AGAINST us (14 more RBI against the Phillies than any other team).
Infielder – Juan Castro
2009 Recap: Castro, primarily known for his glove, had only 112 AB’s last season, hitting .277, mostly singles.
2010 Outlook: I will be shocked if Castro contributes any offensive value throughout the season. Hopefully Jimmy and Chase stay healthy, because he really isn’t any better than Eric Bruntlett, though maybe slightly better with the glove.
Outfielder – Ben Francisco
2009 Recap: Francisco was part of the Cliff Lee trade, but was hardly a throw-in. He stepped right in as a great 4th outfielder and notched an .843 OPS in 104 PA for the Phils, who were in huge need of a spark off the bench. He didn’t have a hit in the post-season, but showed his worth as a defensive replacement. He has a solid bat, and were he given a full 600 ABs last year, he would have projected at 22 HR and a very impressive 44 2Bs.
2010 Outlook: Francisco is going to get a lot of AB’s, spelling each of the 3 outfielders (particularly Ibanez) and I think he will play well enough to have fans thinking whether or not he should be given a starting job (a la Victorino’s role in 2006). Don’t be surprised if Werth is replaced with a Francisco/Brown platoon in 2011.
Utility – Greg Dobbs
2009 Recap: Dobbs was a huge disappointment in 2009. After being the best pinch hitter in the NL in 2007 and 2008 (44 pinch hits, .289 avg in PH situations) he went 9 for 60 (.150) in pinch-hitting situations in 2009. He won a game or two for us in each of the previous season with a clutch hit, but I can’t think of one instance he came through in in 2009.
2010 Outlook: It will be interesting to see how Dobbs is used this year as it appears Ross Gload will be used as the teams primary pinch hitter. I would expect Dobbs to see about as many AB’s as Stairs had last year. I think he will be improved from 2009, but will likely make an unceremonious exit after the season.
Pinch Hitter – Ross Gload
2009 Recap: Gload replaced Dobbs as the best pinch hitter in the NL (24 for 77, .312 BA) so instead of seeing if Dobbs could recover, the Phils just signed Gload. Along with Francisco, he will probably be the most used player on the bench.
2010 Outlook: I didn’t think it was reasonable to assume Gload could recreate his pinch hitting performance from last season because it’s such a small sample size, but after seeing that for his career he’s had 235 AB’s as a PH, with a .311 BA, I’m a little more optimistic. I predict Gload will be a big upgrade from Dobbs last year, but a notch or 2 below his 2009 numbers.
Pete: Aurthur Rhodes - UGH!! i can still remember that.
on Ross Gload’s 2009 performance translating: remember
So Taguchi?
Well we can’t say we don’t remember any FA reliever signing at the end of their career being a success (see: Park, Eyre). I am really hoping Charlie sticks to his word and uses the bench more this year. Giving these guys a blow once every couple weeks is huge. Especially Ibanez, I’m thinking once a week for him. I am very interested to see what Dobbsy does this year. I have a feeling his 2008 season was a big fluke and he will be weeded off this team come mid season.
Park was really brought in as a starter/reliever and started the year as a starter, so I didn’t count him. But he’s close.
Eyre we traded for – and then re-signed.
On Dobbs, you’d have to say his 2007 was a fluke too, then. He nearly as good as 2008. But I think you are right that he won’t be a big factor this year.
So is Dobbs going to see the field if we give Utley days off and move Polanco to second? I would love to see Utley get off some night/day games, but I know he doesn’t like to sit and Charlie is a players’ manager. I think Dobbs would improve if he got any playing time whatsoever.
Adam -
That’ll be the most likely scenario to get Dobbs on the field, either straight up spelling Polanco, or spelling Utley by proxy. I agree Charlie has to get the key bench guys more ABs this year. Won’t be hard for Francisco, but might be for the others.
You are correct Pete. I read the original statement wrong. I really would almost rather see Mayberry get at bats than Dobbs. Dobbs really really looked bad last year. It was so frustrating watching him lunge at breaking balls especially against lefties. I understand that he was the first one off the bench and was relied upon more last year, but with Gload being the lefty and Francisco the righty. I’d much rather see a righty like Mayberry in that roster spot, so at least we get some power if we need a home run. I know dobbs can play third, but he is no where close to a gold glove at any position especially not at third.
“I really would almost rather see Mayberry get at bats than Dobbs.”
This is an excellent point that I should have mentioned in the post. Manuel has singled out Mayberry as someone who has really impressed him so far this spring.
pinch hitting is neither an art nor a craft. it is an intrinsic combination of rhythm, luck and being put in the right situation. Greg Dobbs is a fine utility player. 2009 was a funk year for him; check out his at-bats between April and July, probably a record low. in his starts, he hit much better. if he is used well, he should be way better than that. that said his best days in Philly are probably long gone. wont see him next year.
need to get the younger guys some ABs.
Is Gload an infield backup? I know nothing about him.
Gload can play first and left or right field. I did hear Manuel speak highly of Mayberry this week. I know what you are saying jkay about at-bats being a factor in Dobbs’ decline last year, but him and Gload are basically the same player really and that’s really why I’d like to see Mayberry get those at-bats. At least he is more of a HR threat.
Westbrook just got released too!
Good points made by all.
Adding another left-handed hitter (who also is an outfielder) in Gload goes as two strikes against Dobbs already, leaving 3B as the only option to get him more playing time and ABs. A right-handed bench bat (Mayberrry) would be a better way to go. Wouldn’t surprise me if Dobbs is traded before the end of spring training, especially if our bullpen is still a concern as the start of the season approaches.
Last week Rich Hofmann wrote an article questioning if Charlie will use his bench this year. He had some staggering numbers in there regarding how hard Charlie uses his starters……
Last season, the Phillies tied a major league record when they had five players with at least 675 plate appearances: Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth. No team in baseball has ever had more.
The 2000 Angels, the 1996 Orioles, the 1986 Red Sox and the 1929 Phillies also had five, and that’s the whole list.
But with good benches and bad benches, Manuel has never gone that way. In the last five seasons in the National League, only 76 players have had at least 675 plate appearances in a season. The typical team had four in that time period. Under Manuel, the Phillies had 14, by far the most in the league.
In the last five seasons, Rollins has the most plate appearances in the NL with 3,618. (Only Seattle’s Ichiro Suzuki, with 3,654, has more in the major leagues.) Of the top nine in the NL, three are Phillies – Rollins, Utley and Howard. This was not just a 2009 thing, not just a 1-year phenomenon.
I know we’re talking about the best SS, 2B, and 1B in franchise history, but something has got to give here. Charlie has said that he would rest these guys more if he had someone to spell them without suffering much of a dropoff, but how could there not be? He’s got to find a plan B———-rotate through positions and give one starter the day off each game throughout the entire season? We should have enough offense to carry one bench player each game, no?———-that will keep our big guns stronger for the playoffs while also allowing our bench guys to stay sharp so we can get the most out of them too.
@#$%^&* spam filter!!!
I really think those AB’s have worn down Utley the last two years. He’s just been in a huge grind since Polanco was traded the first time.
Andy Martino just posted (12:03pm) an interview he had with Chan Ho Park. Here are the high points:
“I had a wish after the season,” he said. “Philadelphia was the no. 1 choice. I had a tough time leaving there. I had much support from fans and community, and I had the best teammates there, so…”
Well, he was asked, why didn’t it work out with the Phils?
“Too late. Too late. Too late. It didn’t work well in the beginning, and later on, too late,” he said.
Basically, Park orginally expected a raise from the Phils, feeling that a strong performance had earned him more than the $2.5 million he made in 2009. His agents negotiated with Amaro through mid-December, and then the Phils decided to move on. Park was shocked.
“They were talking, and it didn’t work,” he said. “Trying to get a deal, and it didn’t work out, and then later on they just gave up, and I lost.”
He eventually signed for one year, $1.5 million to become a Yankees reliever.
Park also addressed the criticism leveled by Charlie Manuel this winter. In complimenting Baez and Contreras as pitchers who would never refuse to take the ball, even if injured, Manuel was clearly taking a shot at Park. It is likely that Manuel’s view of Park as a victim of frequent minor injuries contributed to the Phils lack of aggressiveness in pursuing the pitcher.
“I was disappointed in what he said,” said Park. “That’s what he thinks, but I don’t think it has any meaning. He still is my favorite manager. I didn’t talk to him, and I didn’t believe it (when he first heard about the comments). But who cares? He’s still my favorite manager. The whole team; they’re the best. That’s why it’s so difficult to leave. The fans, especially the fans. They’re the best.
“(It is) mostly sad…to leave Philadelphia. I had fun last year. Good memories and things. That makes me sad.
Maybe Park should have not listened to his agent’s advice or been more clear in what he wanted or just flat out told him to make the best deal he could with Philly, period. Instead, he ended up leaving a place where he wanted to be and getting less money in the process.
Amaro has clearly shown that he does not play along with any agent’s games. If, after initial discussions, Amaro doesn’t like the agent’s/player’s position, he walks away and moves on to his next target.
Having a team that players really want to play on is providing him with extra leverage, I’m sure. I admire the hard-line tactics. I just hope it continues to pay dividends on the field.