Other ReclinerGM 2010 MLB previews
I wrote last year that we were fielding the best infield in team history, by far. Well, this year, with the departure of Pedro Feliz and arrival of Placido Polanco, it appears we have an even better one. I think you could make the argument that this is one of the best infields of any team of all-time. Here’s my outlook on the 4 infielders, along with Carlos Ruiz.
Catcher – Carlos Ruiz
2009 Recap: Ruiz very quietly had a very good year behind the plate for the Phillies. He didn’t really play until May, and it took him a little bit to get going, but after the all-star break, he had a tremendous .375 OBP and .862 OPS. He finished the year 3rd among NL catchers (with at least 375 PA) in OPS, behind only Brian McCann and Miguel Montero. His best attribute was his ability to take a walk and turn the line-up over. He had 47 walks (3 more than Rollins in 346 less ABs) to 39 strikeouts on the year. He was not quite Gold Glove level, but his defense behind the plate is certainly above average.
Cool Stat: Ruiz swung at fewer balls outside the strike zone than anyone else on the team. Ruiz only chased 18.7% of pitches outside the zone. By comparison, Ryan Howard swung at 27%, Shane Victorino 28% and Pedro Feliz 30%.
Room For Improvement 2010: Ruiz has been great in spurts over the past two years, and one of our best hitters in the playoffs (.905 OPS in 99 AB), but he hasn’t logged more than 322 ABs over either of the last 2 seasons. It would be nice to see him get to 400 AB this year and keep up the solid production.
2010 Outlook: The Phillies showed a commitment to Carlos Ruiz this winter, giving him a 3-year deal worth around $9 million. This will be the first season that Ruiz comes in as the undisputed starting catcher (remember some, including myself, were thinking this would be Lou Marson’s job pretty early in 2009 after Ruiz’s poor 2008). I think that this security and vote of confidence will help Ruiz have the best season of his career. With career highs of 9 HR and 54 RBI, that might not being saying much. But at the bottom of this line-up, you can’t ask for much more.
First Base – Ryan Howard
2009 Recap: Howard was his typical streaky self in 2009. He finished the year T-1st in MLB in RBI and 3rd in HR. Once again he was a 2nd half player, with an .870 OPS prior to the break and a 1.003 OPS after. He chose August as the month to put us on his back, hitting 11 HR with 33 RBI. He improved BA, OBP and SLG% from 2008, and hit 37 doubles, 11 more than his previous career high. He lost a good deal of weight from 2008, which resulted in slightly better baserunning and defense.
Cool Stat: Since 2006, Ryan Howard has 33 more HR (198) and 81 more RBI (572) than anyone else in baseball. That’s a pretty much a full season ahead of everyone else. Albert Pujols is 2nd in both categories. BONUS STAT: Ryan Howard saw fewer fastballs in 2009 than any other hitter. Pitchers threw him fastballs only 45% of the time. The only other player under 50% was Alfonso Soriano (46%). Luis Castillo saw the most fastballs (74%).
Room For Improvement 2010: Can I just put “learn to make the throw to 2nd base” and be done with it? Nah. Howard showed me a lot by working his tail off in the off-season after a sub-standard 2008. He improved his defense and base-running, cut down a bit on his strikeout rate for the 2nd straight year, and even stole some bases. He could still improve in all these areas, but what I’d really like to see from him is better plate discipline. Someone with his power should be drawing a lot more walks, especially when he has so much firepower behind him.
2010 Outlook: There’s no reason not to expect another 40 HR / 130 RBI season from Howard. There is also no reason to expect him to stop striking out or suddenly be a Gold Glove-caliber 1B.
Second Base – Chase Utley
2009 Recap: Same old, same old for Utley. Emphasis on same. Chase’s HR/RBI/OPS for the last 5 seasons? 28/105/.916, 32/102/.906, 22/103/.976, 33/109/.915, 31/93/.905. I imagine the only reason the 2009 RBI’s were down was because Rollins had such a poor season at the top of the line-up. Utley was robbed of yet another Gold Glove at 2B.
Cool Stat: Utley is 2nd all-time in career OPS by a 2nd baseman (.902). Rogers Hornsby is 1st, and at 1.010 he’s not being caught. Utley is also already 18th all-time in HR by a 2B.
Room For Improvement 2010: It’s hard to nitpick with Utley, the best all-around baseball player the Phillies have had since Schmidt, but if there is one thing you could say, it’s that he might play with too much reckless abandon. Utley has yet to put together the signature, MVP season we all know he is capable of. He was on his way in 2007 before breaking his hand. It seems he is always playing hurt. Imagine what kind of year he could have if he wasn’t. I’m not saying he should call up Bobby Abreu or anything, but he could be a little more careful.
2010 Outlook: For a guy that has been as ridiculously consistent as I mentioned earlier, you can’t really justify predicting anything but a 25-30 HR, 95-105 RBI, .900-.950 OPS for Utley. Is it possible that this is the year he has that signature season and challenges Albert Pujols for MVP honors? It’s possible, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Third Base – Placido Polanco
2009 Recap: It’s harder to recap Polanco’s 2009 season since I didn’t see him play every day. This was my summary of the type of player he is when we signed him. Last year was really a disappointing year for Polanco, as it was for many Detroit Tigers. He had his lowest BA since 2001 but also had his lowest BABIP since 2004, meaning he was possibly the victim of some bad luck. 2009 was the 2nd straight year he regressed since his near batting title in 2007.
Cool Stat: Polanco was one of the toughest players to strike out in 2009. He made contact on 97.3% of pitches in the strike zone that he swung at, the best % in the majors.
Room For Improvement 2010: Polanco is a contact hitter who doesn’t strike out and doesn’t get a lot of walks. He’s not going to change much with the bat. The big question for him will be on the defensive end, where the Phillies are moving him from 2B to 3B. He’s going to have to really work hard in the off-season and spring training to try to get comfortable enough there to prevent hiccups during the season.
2010 Outlook: I really expect Polanco to be great this year. Like Raul Ibanez, I think he will be rejuvenated by coming to a contending team with a solid clubhouse and a player-friendly Manager. I think Polanco couldn’t help but be discouraged by a bad situation in Detroit last year and that a change of scenery (to a place he loves, no less) will result in a much better season.
Short Stop – Jimmy Rollins
2009 Recap: It was a tale of two seasons for Rollins. On July 1st, his OPS was a putrid .569. Only Nick Punto (2007) and Neifi Perez (2002) have had OPS’s that low for an entire season. It’s not a stretch to say Rollins was the worst offensive player in baseball from Opening Day to July 1st. From July 2nd on, Rollins hit .288 with an impressive .509 SLG% and .845 OPS. He still finished 63rd out of 76 NL players in OPS for the season and 74th out of 76 in on-base percentage. It was his worst offensive season since 2003. Even when he wasn’t hitting though, he was still flashing the leather, winning another Gold Glove, his 3rd straight. He also still scored 100 runs.
Cool Stat: Rollins and Ichiro are the only 2 players to have over 900 runs and 300 stolen bases from 2000-2009 (the decade we don’t have have a name for).
Room For Improvement 2010: Just…get…on…base. With as many power hitters as we have, it’s still Rollins that makes our offense go. The Phillies were 103-34 over the last 2 years when he scores a run, 83-105 when he doesn’t. That’s an amazing corollary. It’s pretty simple: the more Rollins is on-base, the more he scores, the more we win. A .296 OBP is absolutely horrible. Rollins needs to get back to at least .340 (still not great) this year.
2010 Outlook: It’s unlikely that last year’s regression was the first of a trend, as Rollins is a small player with a short swing. I fully expect Rollins to go back to his 2008 form. Even though he and Ryan Howard usually end the season with predictable numbers, how they get there tends to be an adventure. Getting a consistent season from Rollins would be a great stabilizer for this team.
Overview
I did the infield first because there aren’t going to be a whole lot of surprise here. Howard, Utley and Rollins have all been around for the last 5+ years or so and are in their early 30’s. We know exactly what to expect from them, and it’s very unlikely we will see any big changes in their game at this point in their careers. The addition of Polanco has the chance to help this line-up in a lot of different ways (he’ll be much better at moving Rollins over, and it will be interesting to see what Victorino does in the 7-hole), and Ruiz finally has the catching job to himself.
Frankly, I’m just excited to be legitimately talking about the 2010 season. Let me know what you guys think about our infield prospects in 2010.
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Great summary. It is true that somehow this team is still do dependent on Rollins offense, yet he is the worse of the 4 main infielders. Perhaps he is closer to a defensive specialist whose offense is a bonus. I have disagreed with him being a leadoff hitter for several year. Yes, the phils record is great when he scores. But who says he will even score more? If someone else batted leadoff and walked more, who is to say he wouldn’t score more and the team wouldn’t have the same great winning percentage when that person gets on base…
pumped
Wow, Pete, do I think you underrate Carlos Ruiz’s defensive work. I think he’s just a hair behind Yaddie Molina, and think he handles a pitching staff about as well as can be done. Now I grant you, I don’t recall the pitchers talking him up a lot, but he comes across to me as being in charge, which I like in a catcher. So when you say he’s not quite gold glove quality, I have to disagree. Gold glove quality doesn’t have to mean you win the award, particularly since it’s so political, or poularity driven, or something. Offensively, I think we’ll see some emergence to levels that don’t seem doable as he continues as a regular. He is, as you said, terrific at getting walks, but I think we can see him at .280, close to 20 and 80 ribs in the next 2-3 years.
I was a little surprised on your Ryan Howard writeup that you didn’t mention you’d like to see some improvement against lefty pitching, although that could come under plate discipline.
It is true that somehow this team is still do dependent on Rollins offense, yet he is the worse of the 4 main infielders.>>
Rollins is definitely a guy who can attract criticism. No question. Offensively, he was right around okay last year. Not much more, if any at all.
But Rollins also has an MVP and 30 homer season to his credit fairly recently.
And if you look hard enough, you can find a better defensive catcher than Carlos Ruiz, but it’s a complete waste of search to look for a better defensive shortstop than Jimmy Rollins.
That said, it is completely unfair to think of him as the worst of the 4 main infielders unless third base has been eliminated from the sport since Scott Rolen left town. About 98.8 per cent of the position players in baseball are worse than Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, so Rollins has a lot of company in what would rate him as the 3rd best of the 4 infielders. Ain’t a way in the world he’s lower than that.
pumped>>
this post reminds me of the Chief in One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest. Guy doesn’t say a word the first hour ad a half, acts like a deaf mute, and then Nicholson offers him a piece of gum, and he speaks for the first time, quipping, “mmmm, jucy fruit”.
Nice work, Stu. A single word, and you catch the depth of emotion on how we all feels as batteries report in under 3 weeks.
From Pete >>The Phillies were 103-34 over the last 2 years when he scores a run, 83-105 when he doesn’t. That’s an amazing corollary. It’s pretty simple, the more Rollins is on-base, the more he scores, the more we win.>>
Ken – I guess part of my point is I would like to see the above stat in comparison to other teams – particularly good teams. In a vacuum it means little in terms of evaluating Rollins impact on the team. Where does the Phillies win pecentage range when Rollins scores compared to other leadoff hitters who score. Don’t you think the majority of teams lose the majority of their games when the leadoff man doesn’t score. They are called table-setters for a reason. It seems to me most leadoff hitters objective is to get on base and score. If you don’t do it you don’t hold the job. So I am not sure why it is so surprising of a stat. Note if we plugged in victorino there for two years and the numbers wre not similar then I would acknowledge it. but don’t you think if Victorino batted first and Rollins betted 7th we would still win alot more games when Victorino scores than when he doesn’t? And remember, the team didn’t tank in the win/loss record when Rollins was batting 180 through July. Another reason not sure the team is so dependent on him in an way they aren’t dependent on any player hitting leadoff.
Phillyfan-
That’s a good point – give me 2 teams and 2 leadoff hitters and I’ll check it out.
However, it doesn’t negate the fact that he IS our leadoff hitter, so HE’S the one that has to get on base and score runs for us.
I don’t dispute for a second that Rollins has some shortcomings as a leadoff hitter. I was disagreeing with saying he’s the 4th best of the 4 infielders.
He’s somewhere between average and above average on the whole offensively, and superb defensively.
Pete, I think the corrolation between not just a leadoff hitter, but any player would be somewhat similar. That is, take Utley, or Howard, or Ruiz, or anyone, and compare the Phils record when that player scores vs. when they don’t. Compare that with the Rollins number and it will look a lot less impressive.
Dan-
Challenge accepted!
I ran the numbers for the other regulars over the last 2 years (1 year for Ibanez)…. here are the results….
Phillies Winning % When X Scores a Run
Pete, I am actually impressed you went to the trouble. Well done. I see now the real key to winning is getting Ruiz to score a run!
Actually for fun, you should run different combination of players who do different things, and how often the Phils win given those items. They can be generally associated with winning, but I imagine you could get silly with things such as this made up example:
Do you realize that when Utley and Rolling both hit RBIs in the same games where Ibanez has at least 1 outfield assist, the phils are 41-1!! This can be a new strategy for Manuel! Get Ibanez outfield assists and put Rollins and Utley in RBI positions, at all costs!!!
Dan -
Funny you should say that. I was actually thinking what would be the biggest correllary to the Phillies winning a game.
My first thought was a Ryan Howard HR, but surprisingly, over the last 3 years, the Phillies have just a 63.7% win % when he does.
Chooch doesn’t throw enough runners out. That doesn’t mean he’s not a good defensive catcher. It does mean that he won’t win any awards for his defense, though.
I think the stat of winning percentage when a player scores a run can be explained by rarity of the event. If you look at runs scored per plate appearance
1)Utley-.196
2)Ibanez-.186
3) Werth-.171
4)Howard-.170
5)Victorino-.165
6)-Rollins-.149
7)Ruiz-.099
Then compare with Pete’s list: “Phillies Winning % When X Scores a Run
Rollins, 75.2%
Ruiz, 73.5%
Howard, 72.9%
Victorino, 71.9%
Utley, 70.8%
Ibanez, 70.4%
Werth, 67.7%” It’s not an exact correlation, but it tends to be when a person with a low Runs Scored Per Plate Appearance scores, the winning percentage increases due to its rarity of happening, because of the added “boost” of getting a run from someone not as likely to contribute.
That’s why it’s so important for Rollins to score, his RSPPA is so much lower than everybody than Ruiz’s, but being the leadoff man, he gets the most at-bats. If the person who is at the plate the most on your team is scoring at the 2nd lowest rate, it’s obviously inefficient, and will lead to a much higher winning % when that player does score in a game.
<<My first thought was a Ryan Howard HR, but surprisingly, over the last 3 years, the Phillies have just a 63.7% win % when he does.>>
Pete – I think that is due to the fact that Howard gets more fastballs to hit when the Phils are behind by a good bit. 63% is pretty decent for a powerhitting run producer.
I guess to my earlier point it would be good to compare Rollins to say the Boston and LA Angels, leadoff guys over the past 2 years.
Chone Figgins, Angels, 71.9%
Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox, 75.0%
Chooch doesn’t throw enough runners out. That doesn’t mean he’s not a good defensive catcher. It does mean that he won’t win any awards for his defense, though.>>
Here is a sampling of numbers that validate your point.
I compared Carlos to the 2009 Gold Glove winners, Yaddy Molina and Joe Mauer.
In 09
Ruiz was behind the plate on 61 steals, and threw out 23 (27% caught)
Mauer was there for a total of 54 steals and threw out 19 (26% caught)
Yaddie allowed a total of 32 steals and threw out 22 (40% caught)
Career wise
Ruiz 27.1% caught stealing
Mauer 37.8%
Molina 46.4%
Obviously, pitchers play a role, but as the trends are consistent over the course of the careers, compared to the Gold Glove winners, Carlos doesn’t stack up well at cutting down stolen base attempts.
Pete-
What about utility infielders? Do you see an upgrade/downgrade or about the same from last year? Will Dobbs have a season like in 08 or will it be more like last year? Do you think Manuel will actually give some players days off to let Dobbs get into the lineup? I don’t think he will be able to get any outfield starts unless we have an injury and are forced to start Fransisco. Does that mean that Charlie will give Utley some rest this year to keep him from getting injured again and move Polanco to second and start Dobbs? Or do you think Charlie is just going to stay with his philosophy he had last year and not give the infield a lot of rest? I think Charlie needs to get Utley some more rest this season, whether he likes it or not. He’s been hurt, and we really need more production late in the season from him.
adam -
I’ll do a bullpen/bench preview as well later on.
I hope that Polanco’s addition does give Utley some more rest, especially if he’s banged up.
It will be interesting to see how Dobbs is used this year, as it seems Ross Gload will be the primary pinch hitter.
Was this statement from anyone we know:
Q: Remember that you stated back on July 28th of 2009 that if Mike Dunleavy was still coach by Valentine’s Day, you would organize “Throw Bags of Your Own Urine” Night at the next Clippers game? Almost made it! I had this article in mind all season and now I have nothing to look forward to on Valentine’s Day except taking my girlfriend out. Way to ruin my day.
–Pete, Philadelphia
SG: OK, so there were three big downers. Not two.
http://www.mlbnewsrumors.com/2/post/2010/02/2010-mlb-top-prospects-lists.html
This, on a single click, is a list of multiple sources top prospect lists.
Found a nice nod to Ryan Howard on fangraphs yesterday. Dave Cameron has an article, Power To All Fields, that ends like this:
I can’t end without giving a nod to Ryan Howard, however. The big Phillies slugger is known for his opposite field moonshots, and the numbers bear this out. Here’s Howard’s breakdown.
To Left: .701 (!!!)
To Center: .480
To Right: .327
Ryan Howard’s slugging percentage on fly balls to left field is a staggering 1.138. That’s not his OPS – that’s his SLG. 71% of all of his balls in play to left field are fly balls, and 27 percent of those leave the yard. You may remember from yesterday that the league average HR/FB for a lefty to left field was 3%. Howard’s HR/FB to left is nine times the league average.
We don’t have the historical evidence to prove it, of course, but I’d wager that Ryan Howard may just be the greatest opposite field power hitter in the history of the game.
I also found an article on si.com, How Much of an Improvement Will Big New Additions Be?, by Cliff Corcoran. Here is what he had to say about Halladay:
When the Phillies simultaneously traded Cliff Lee and traded for Halladay last December it looked like they were breaking even in the short-term. While that’s arguably true for their 2010 outlook before and after the trade, it’s important to remember that Lee made just 12 regular-season starts for the Phillies last year, and thus either pitcher would have represented an upgrade for 2010. Halladay is replacing a dozen starts by Lee, but he’s also replacing 10 by Brett Myers, and five each by Rodrigo Lopez and Antonio Bastardo. Lee posted a 3.39 ERA in 79 2/3 innings as a Phillie, but other three combined for a 6.73 ERA in 113 2/3 innings. Using SNLVAR (Baseball Prospectus’s adjusted, win-probability based stat for starting pitchers), that spot in the Phillies rotation was worth 3.1 wins over replacement in 2009, while Halladay is typically worth between seven and eight wins above replacement.
Estimated upgrade: 4+ wins
BTW, the numbers provided for Howard (To Left, To Center, To Right) are his ISO———-which is designed to specifically measure a player’s extra-base hitting abilities, basically a ratio of extra-base hits per at-bat, calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage———-to each field.
I agree, that the Philles present infield is the best Phillies infield of all-time.(when you weigh offense and defense together. I also agree this is the best infield in MLB for the last 5 years. I don’t agree that they are one of the best MLB infields of all-time. As THE LATE GREAT Richie Ashburn might have said,”How about those Cincinnati Reds(1969-1978).
Harry. Bench, Perez, Morgan, Concepion, and Rose. I haven’t checked the exact stats, but could you imagine how many runs, rbis runs scored, and hrs were scored. Not to mention awards and Gold Gloves. I followed the Phillies all my life, but could not wait for the Reds to come to Philly.
Jerry-
Thanks for commenting.
We can be worse than Reds infield (I agree with you) and still be one of the best ever, no? Just not THE best ever?