Other ReclinerGM 2010 MLB previews
The infield gets all the accolades, but it was the outfield that stepped up their game and exceeded expectations last year. Both Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth had career years that led to both being invited to the all-star game. Raul Ibanez was arguably the best hitter in baseball until he got hurt, but was never quite the same when he came back. This is an area where the Phillies have loads of prospects in the pipeline so it will be interesting to see how this outfield looks in a couple years.
Centerfield – Shane Victorino
2009 Recap: After becoming a house-hold name during the Phillies’ 2008 run, Victorino put together a stellar 2009 campaign, the best of his career. He didn’t steal as much (25 SB vs. 36 in 2008) but he set personal bests in hits (181), doubles (39), triples (13), RBI (62) and OPS (.803). He also won his 2nd straight gold glove and was rewarded with a 3-year contract extension.
Cool Stat: Since 2008, only 5 players have stolen over 60 bases while sporting an OPS over .800: Victorino, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Matt Kemp and Brian Roberts.
Room For Improvement 2010: Victorino has a tendency to swing at bad pitches with 3 balls instead of taking a walk. Victorino swings at more pitches outside the strike-zone (he swung at 28% of pitches outside the zone) than anyone on the team and this is an area that can be improved upon. While more walks aren’t as important hitting in the 7-hole instead of the 2-hole, plate discipline is always a good thing. It would also be nice to see him get back to the 35-40 range for stolen bases, not sure why he attempted so few last year. It will be interesting to see how this works with him setting up the bottom of the order instead of the middle.
2010 Outlook: The big thing with Shane this year is that he is being moved down in the line-up so that Placido Polanco can hit 2nd. This will likely increase his RBI totals, and decrease his runs scored (while remaining the same exact player, a good argument for why those stats always need to be taken in context). My hope is that he doesn’t try to change himself too much in the new spot and just continues to do what he does best. Shane has improved his OPS over each of the last 4 seasons (.760, .770, .799, .803) but I don’t see that trend continuing this year. Chances are he levels out just under .800, knocks in a career high RBI (say 80 or so) and nabs 30 bases.
Rightfield - Jayson Werth
2009 Recap: Arguably the biggest break-out star in baseball in 2009, Werth went from having 356 career starts over 6 seasons, to being one of the best all-around players in the game. If you remember, there was a lot of worry about whether this line-up could survive with him as the only RH run-producer, and he managed to exceed anyone’s wildest expectations. His ranks among NL outfielders were as follows: HR (1st), Runs (3rd), RBI (5th), OPS (5th), SB (8th). All while exhibiting above-average base running and defense. He was a monster in the playoffs, hitting 7 HR’s with a 1.129 OPS. His status after this season, when he becomes a free agent, has suddenly become a hot topic of conversation as all-of-a-sudden his price tag has jumped to Jason Bay / Matt Holliday levels.
Cool Stat: Werth joined HOFers Mike Schmidt and Chuck Klein as the only Phillies to hit 35 HR and steal 20 bases in the same season.
Room For Improvement 2010: Werth, like much of our line-up, racks up the K’s. He tied for 4th most in NL last season. The 3 players above him (Howard, Reynolds, Dunn) are all 40+ HR hitters. Either hit 40 HR, or cut down the K’s. Also, Werth does not do well running towards the wall on defense. He doesn’t hold up like Abreu used to, but he has rarely finished plays running towards it. Doesn’t happen often, but I’ve noticed it (because I always felt the “Abreu sucks cause he won’t run into the wall” thing was stupid and watch how other players react now).
2010 Outlook: Every year there are several players who don’t meet expectations, and I think this year, it could be Werth. I say this because he fits the profile: extremely high expectations, coming off a break-out season, doesn’t have a long track record of success. Some guys keep it up, some guys don’t. I don’t have a strong opinion either way, but I do think expectations for him are a little too high right now. Pat Burrell in 2003 scarred me for life. Regardless of how he does, I still think the Phillies find a way to keep him after this season. Whether this means trading someone like Ryan Howard to open up a spot for him remains to be seen. I just can’t see the Phillies going into 2011 with Carlos Ruiz and Placido Polanco as their only true right-handed hitters in the line-up.
Leftfield - Raul Ibanez
2009 Recap: Ibanez quickly became a cult hero with his ridiculous start to the season. When he got hurt on June 17th, he was on pace for 57 HR and 159 RBI while sporting a 1.027 OPS. He was simply on fire for the first 62 games of the season, probably the best stretch of his entire career. When he returned though, he was just a shadow of his old self. He had 12 HR, 33 RBI and a .774 OPS after the all-star break.
Cool Stat: Ibanez tied with Mark McGwire, Dwight Evans and Mike Schmidt for the 7th most RBI’s in MLB history from ages 34-37. The top 6 are Babe Ruth, Andres Gallaraga, Rafael Palmiero, Paul O’Neil, Edgar Martinez and Barry Bonds.
Room For Improvement 2010: His increased K-rate is a concern (17.3% in 2008, 23.8% in 2009) and could be a sign of his bat slowing down, or his injury. Hopefully the latter. He had a significant drop off in his contact/swing % for balls outside the strike-zone (71.5% in 2008, 57.5% in 2009) so fouling off more tough pitches would be an improvement. I also can’t imagine he’s going to duplicate his career-high SLG% (.552) from last year, so in addition to cutting down the strikeouts, it would be nice to see him increase his BA and OBP as well.
2010 Outlook: I’m worried about Ibanez this year. He was downright average after his injury last year, he’s 37, about to be 38 and he hasn’t hit a lick in spring training (4 for 35, .114). When we signed him, I thought the 3rd year was going to be a problem, but right now I’m concerned about the 2nd year. Hopefully something clicks before the start of the season and he can put in a productive year (I would consider anything over a .800 OPS to be a victory) but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he really struggled and we start hearing lots of noise about how we should keep Werth and replace Ibanez with Brown in 2011.
Overview
After all 3 put up tremendous years last year, I’m predicting a bit of a slide for each of the 3 outfielders this year. As I said before, there are always players who underachieve who you aren’t expecting and there is a lot of potential for that in this group. Luckily, in Ben Francisco, the Phillies have a starting-caliber player sitting on their bench who can come in a spell these guys. I actually expect to see him playing a lot in place of Ibanez this year against tough lefties.
One area that will be watched closely at these positions is at the minor league level. Domonic Brown showed star potential during spring training and it will be interesting to see if he forces his way up in 2011. Aside from him, the Phillies are loaded with high-risk, high-reward talent in the outfield including Tyson Gillies, Anthony Gose, Jiwan James, Domingo Santana, Kyrell Hudson, Zach Collier, Anthony Hewitt, Leandro Castro and Kelly Dugan. That’s ten prospects that have a chance to be major leaguers (though most will fizzle out). The Phillies hope that 1-2 of them make the leap like Brown did last year.
Where do the Phillies stand on Mayberry? I was thinking that he’d be heir to LF after Ibanez with Brown waiting to take over RF? I vaguely remember them saying that they were waiting for a every day or near every day spot to open up.
I think the trade for Ben Francisco kinda screwed him.
“Throw at my ribs, not my head bro!!”
Many very good points, Pete.
I am just as worried about Ibanez as you are, although it’s more about his contract (the years, the money) and how that might hamstring us if we can’t move him than it is about LF. Because of Francisco, who could prove to be a very valuable (and very savvy on Amaro’s part) throw-in/add-on acquisition, and Brown, like you mentioned, we should be fine in LF .
Victorino concerns me for two reasons:
1) He doesn’t sound thrilled about being moved down to the 7-hole.
2) Hitting in front of Ruiz/Schneider and the pitcher is 180-degrees about from hitting in front of Utley and Howard. Not only will he see fewer fastballs, but you’ve got to figure he will also get fewer good pitches of any kind to hit, especially when there are runners on base. For an aggressive hitter who already swings at more pitches out of the strike zone than anyone on the team, as you noted, he will need to make some serious changes in his approach to be successful this year.
I’m not saying that he will have a poor attitude or be a problem, only that if he gets off to a tough start it could turn into a season-long struggle for him resulting in diminished productivity.
Werth I have no concerns about. He has finally gotten the opportunity to show that he is an every day outfielder and he has thrived. He seems confident, happy, loose, and he is in a contract year. Need I say more?
Stacy -
Mayberry is kind of in a bad spot. He’s played well this spring and Manuel has said a bunch of nice things about him, but there is no room on the roster and he’s not getting any younger.
I don’t think he’ll ever be better than a 4th outfielder, or a starter on a team like the Pirates, but if someone gets hurt and Francisco steps in, he could be our 4th outfielder.
I don’t ever see him as an everyday player for us though. He’s never hit over .268 in the minors.
are any of the older MLB outfielder prospects righty’s?
Its so unusual the phils have so many lefties. I guess they were ok with it bc the team has so many switchhitters
I’m totally on board with what b.ski said about Vic seeing fewer fast balls hitting down in the order. But the guy does have an attitude, and probably finds a way to adjust and have a good year.
Werth, I just don’t know. Some guys you could care less how they do in the spring. I have a feeling he may press some this year, and may be doing so already. They seldom wear that pressing on their face, and Werth would seem happy go lucky in most any circumstance.
I think Ibanez has a no trade, so he’s here for 2 more years, unless they want to eat 10 million. I look at him as a professional hitter.
So we have 3 outfielders, and varying degrees of worry and confidence in. Don’t it figure.
I have a suspicion that DeWayne Wise might be the 5th outfielder. That way Mayberry doesn’t rot on the bench, and as Mark Buherle will tell you, Wise is a defensive asset. Valuble commodity for the 5th slot. Course there’s Greg Dobbs in the equation, too, but Mayberry seems minor league bound.
OK, I’ve got two things today, neither of which is related to the Phils outfield.
1) Ryan Howard
Bill Conlin has an article in today’s Daily News in which he talks about Ryan Howard taking batting pracice with the donut still on his bat. In the article he states:
I stood chatting with venerable Tampa Bay Rays special assistant Don Zimmer yesterday while Howard did his donut thing. Zim, who has been in uniform a lot this spring, is 79 years old and has been in the game for 63 of those years.
“Ever see a batter take BP with the donut on his bat?” I asked one of the game’s great characters. “Never,” Zim said. “Not anybody at any time.
I wouldn’t bet my house on this, but I seem to recall reading, possibly in a Sports Illustrated article from around 10 years ago, about Edgar Martinez regularly taking BP with the donut on his bat.
Does anybody else remember hearing/reading anything like this? Please tell me I’m not dreaming (my memory is usually pretty reliable). I have actually e-mailed Geoff Baker, who runs the Mariners blog for the Seattle Times, in an effort to confirm that Martinez did this.
I hope that my recollection is correct, as Martinez was one heck of a hitter (and worthy of emulation, imo). If Howard can get anywhere near the results from doing it that Martinez seems to have gotten then I will be thrilled.
2) Brad Lidge
I don’t know what to think about him looking to add a 2-seam fastball to his repertoire.
I want to think that this is a good thing; that he’s trying to develop it as a hedge to help him stay successful just in case it takes longer than expected until his arm speed gets back to where he needs it to be; that it will be another weapon that he mixes in just enough to keep the hitters off-balance and get them off his slider. However, I’m having a difficult time doing it.
What I’m really thinking is that, after last season and his off-season surgeries , Lidge is not so sure that the arm speed he needs for his current pitches to remain effective will in fact return, and that he’s trying to find something that will work for him in that case (and keep him in his closer’s role, rather than becoming a past-his-prime guy moved into a front-end of the bullpen role).
Anybody else thinking this way? Am I way off the mark? Do I see the sky falling prematurely?
B.ski,
Sounds like your memory is intact.
“He was the greatest teammate ever. One thing about Edgar, every time he came to the park, you knew you were getting Steady Eddie, Mr. Consistency, day in and day out. I never saw a guy with a better, more unbelievable work ethic. Every time you look at Edgar, you see two things – a bat in his hands, and a doughnut on that bat. The guy was a workaholic.
“When he was in his prime, the only way you could get him out was throw it down the middle and hope he got himself out. I don’t think there was any right or wrong way to pitch Edgar. That’s what makes him such a great hitter. He’s so smart; he knows so much about his swing.
” … That’s going to be tough to digest – knowing that that same old steady guy, that you can pencil in every day, is not going to be in there.”
JAY BUHNER
Former longtime teammate
Ken,
Thanks. I was pretty certain that I remembered correctly.
I also seem to recall, probably from the same article, that there was basically only one mark on his BP bat, meaning that he consistently hit every pitch on the same spot on the barrel, all day, every day.
Funny that Zimmer wouldn’t recall that, though. I mean, it’s not like Martinez was a Bruntlett-type bench player. The guy was widely considered one of the greatest hitters of his era (to the point that he will almost certainly be the first DH elected to the HOF, whenever that might happen), renowned for the work he put into the discipline of hitting.
If I can find the article I’m thinking of or if I get confirmation from the Seattle Times writer, I just might have to inform Conlin.
Pujos is hurt…again.
good lord man – 5 people give you crap for not spelling the dude’s name right and you still can’t get it right.
Puljos is hurt…again.
Anybody see Howards two dingers yesterday? 50+ this year folks – maybe 60.
In fairness to Zimmer, cautious that it may be, the article, or quote just said something about a donut. Didn’t mention the exact purpose.
Phillyfan – Howard admittedly is more likely than the 76ers were to go 11-4 in January. Have you ever made the playoffs after an 0-2 start?
A nice article on Jarred Cosart – an arm to watch this year in the minors…. hit 97mph in his minor league start (3.1 innings, 1 hit, 8 strikeouts)
Link
Jayson Werth had lunch with Reggie Jackson yesterday. Werth chose not to disclose what they talked about.
http://www.
nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/reggie_werth_meet_cwsCFjjmMiuaElzvoJQuMM
“How could you trade Jay Buhner?!?”……Frank Costanza to George Steinbrenner, after Steinbrenner had just informed Costanza that George was dead.
Forgot to mention that the other day. It’s always the first thing that pops into my head when I hear Jay Buhner’s name.