ReclinerGM’s ‘Best Guess’ NFL Preview

Aside from a couple elite teams, the NFL is generally a crapshoot. With only 16 games, unbalanced scheduling and a plethora of injuries, things hardly ever turn out like they should. All that being said, I’ll give it my best shot based on how I think the teams should perform. These predictions are far more thought out and researched than the amount of text would indicate, but writing down everything I think about these teams would result in a far-too-long, far-too-boring post. (Note: I’m on vacation and drinking. Thank God for spell check.)

NFC East

1. Dallas Cowboys, 12-4

Just a tremendously talented team. That will get them through the regular season, but can they win a playoff game? Since arriving there, Terrell “That’s my teammate… that’s my quarterback” Owens has won exactly as many playoff games as he won with the Eagles: 0.

2. Philadelphia Eagles, 10-6

I’ll have a full Eagles preview later, but I like the all-around quality and depth of this squad. If McNabb can stay healthy, we’ll be a team to be reckoned with. If not, he might be gone at season’s end, and we might be starting from scratch. There is A LOT riding on this season.

3. Washington Redskins, 8-8

There is very little reason that Jim Zorn should be a head coach, but it does seem as though he will be great for Jason Campbell’s development. Campbell impressed me in several games last season and could make a big jump this season. The Redskins seem to think so, drafting WR’s Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly and TE Fred Davis with their first 3 picks in the draft.

4. New York Giants, 8-8

A Super Bowl champ in last place? It could happen. Before their dominant end to the season, the Giants were downright mediocre. Think the 2007 Colorado Rockies. I believe, like the Rockies, they are closer to the slightly-above-average squad they were in the regular season than to the team that got on the hot streak in the playoffs. They did little to improve their team in the off-season and lost several key players including Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyora, Jeremy Shockey, Gibril Wilson and Kawika Mitchell. And everyone will be gunning for them.

NFC North

1. Minnesota Vikings, 11-5

The Vikings added the NFL sack leader, Jared Allen, to an already star-studded defensive line and Bernard Berrian to a mediocre WR core. Adrian Peterson averaged 5.6 ypc in his first season, and is on his way to being an absolute super-duper-star. If Tavaris Jackson can be half-decent, this team could make a deep playoff run.

2. Green Bay Packers, 10-6

Did you guys hear that Brett Farve isn’t the Packers’ QB anymore? Apparently he’s on the Jets now. I wish ESPN had given us the heads up. Without Farve, the Packers are still quite stacked. The emergence of Ryan Grant (who SUCKED while I was at Notre Dame, by the way) will take a lot of the pressure off of Aaron Rodgers, and their defense will help keep the games close.

3. Detroit Lions, 8-8

The Lions were on their way to a surprise season last year with a 6-2 start but finished a disappointing 7-9. They are one of the handful of teams who I would never pick to “surprise” because they have so consistently underperformed. They should be better than 8-8 with their offensive firepower but won’t, because they are the Lions.

4. Chicago Bears, 4-12

The Bears are a feast or famine team, they tend to be either great or terrible. With Kyle Orton as their starting QB, I’m going with terrible. Eagles fans have long been frustrated with their team’s insistence that they don’t need a #1 receiver. Imagine how frustrated Bears fans must be with their team’s insistence that they don’t need a QB with better than a 50.0 passer rating.

NFC South

1. New Orleans Saints, 11-5

They finished the season 7-5 after a horrible 0-4 start. There is no way that Drew Brees is going to start off that poorly this year. As much as I hate him, Jeremy Shockey should fit it very well with his old offensive coordinator and if healthy, will make this a pick-your-poison offense with Reggie Bush, Deuce McCallister, Shockey and Marques Colston. The defense should also be better with the additions of Jonathan Vilma, Randall Gay and 1st round pick Sedrick Ellis.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7-9

Joey Galloway. Jeff Garcia. Derrick Brooks. Ronde Barber. Kevin Carter. Chris Hovan. Warrick Dunn. The Bucs are the best 2001 NFC team ever.

3. Carolina Panthers, 7-9

Ever since the steroid-juicing 2004 Panthers cheap-shotted McNabb out of the NFC Championship game, I’ve hated this team. I do take some solace in the fact that they have to wear the worst uniforms in the NFL and live in constant fear that Steve Smith is going to run their family over with his car.

4. Atlanta Falcons, 4-12

It is my personal belief that Matt Ryan is going to be a huge bust. Like Alex Smith, he was the best QB in a poor QB draft and was subsequently wildly overrated. He had a sub 60% completion percentage (60th among college QBs) and NINETEEN interceptions (2nd in the NCAA, behind only some guy named Giovanni from North Texas) during his senior season. Added to this that he is expected to immediately carry a franchise that has been decimated by the Michael Vick debacle. He would have been much better off going in the 3rd round and sitting on a bench for a few years.

NFC West

1. Seattle Seahawks, 9-7

I wish I could pass. The most boring good team of the last several years. They don’t have a single player that I would pay to see, and I really hope one of the other teams in this division can step up and take their spot so that we can see a new team in the playoffs. Unfortunately, this might not be the year.

2. Arizona Cardinals, 9-7

With 10 top-10 picks since 1996, you would think that the Cardinals would be stacked. Somehow, they aren’t. If they had taken the best player picked around their slot, they would have gotten the following players: Jonathan Ogden (#4) over Simeon Rice (#3) in ’96, Tony Gonzalez (#13) over Tom Knight (#9) in ’97, Charles Woodson (#4) over Andre Wadsworth (#3) in ’98, Chris McCallister (#10) over David Boston (#8) in ’99, Brian Urlacher (#9) over Thomas Jones (#7) in ’00, LaDanian Tomlinson (#5) over Leonard Davis (#2) in ’01, Shawne Merriman (#12) over Antrel Rolle (#8) in ’05, Antonio Cromartie (#19) over Matt Leinart (#10) and Adrian Peterson (#7) over Levi Brown (#5) in ’07. Larry Fitzgerald (’04) is the only time they got the best value out of their top-10 pick. If they get it right 2-3 more times in that bunch, they would have made several playoff appearances.

3. San Francisco 49ers, 7-9

Coming off a very disappointing season, the Niners seem to be wondering whether or not they will have to go through another rebuilding process before they ever got good again. Their #1 overall draft pick and franchise QB Alex Smith got beat out by someone who’s name sounds like it’s a whiskey (J.T. O’Sullivan). On defense, they have two stars in Patrick Willis and Nate Clements but other than that, they don’t have a lot of quality or depth on either side of the ball. They need a lot of people to step up their games this season in order to surprise, which they could.

4. St. Louis Rams, 5-11

The only quality addition to their 3-13 squad from last season was Howie Long’s son, Chris. You have to think that Bulger will play better and Stephen Jackson will have a monster season, but I can’t see an improvement of more than a couple wins.

AFC East

1. New England Patriots, 13-3

How will the Patriots follow up their 16-0 regular season and incredibly disappointing Super Bowl loss? Part of me thinks that they will be so upset about it that they will go 16-0 again out of spite. The other part thinks that they will have a little trouble without Stallworth, Samuel, Gay, Seau, Colvin and maybe drug-lord Nick Kaczur. And there’s yet another part of me that hopes that another team videotapes Bill Belichick beating up a hobo for his sweatshirt.

2. New York Jets, 9-7

With ESPN re-defining redundant journalism with their Brett Farve coverage, you might not know that the Jets made some other strong moves in off season including acquiring OL Alan Faneca and Damien Woody and NT Kris Jenkins. They also drafted the physical specimen of the draft in Vernon Gholston to play the Shawne Merriman, DeMarcus Ware role. Farve is theoretically an upgrade at QB, but I’m not sure his reckless style is what this team needs. My guess is he loses them as many games as he wins them (but ESPN only covers the latter).

3. Buffalo Bills, 8-8

The Bills are the potential surprise team of the AFC, but I can’t quite take the leap without seeing more of Trent Edwards. Why could they be the surprise team? A potentially dominant defense with the additions of Marcus Stroud, Paul Posluszny (out all last year), Kawika Mitchell and Leodis McKelvin to an already above average squad and the power running game of Marshawn Lynch behind Jason Peters. Could see their kicker, Rian Lindell, playing a big role in a bunch of grind-’em-out games.

4. Miami Dolphins, 3-13

Nowhere to go but up for the Dolphins, but in this division, it’s going to be tough. I still can’t believe they took Ted Ginn Jr. over Brady Quinn. Like Telfair over Jameer, I’m never letting that one go.

AFC North

1. Cleveland Browns, 10-6

The Browns went 10-6 last year and made some solid off-season moves adding Corey Williams and a newly-motivated Shawn Rodgers to their D-Line and bringing in Donte Stallworth as a 2nd receiver to breakout star Braylon Edwards. However, whatever wins those players will bring the team will be offset by a tired Jamal Lewis and the slightly overrated Derek Anderson.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers, 9-7

Don’t ever bet against the Steelers. No matter what happens to them, they always seem to come through with a decent season. Personally, I don’t think they should be that good, but I’ve said that many times before and been proven wrong. Whether or not Santonio Holmes can make a big leap and Troy Polamalu can stay healthy will be the keys to their season.

3. Cincinnati Bengals, 6-10

Chad Javon Ocho Cinco. Amazing. The Bengals looked to be a team on the rise a couple years back, but instead they decided they’d rather set the NFL record for arrests in a season than the franchise record for wins in a season. They have the talent to be better, but this seems like a team that could be completely derailed by one bad loss.

4. Baltimore Ravens, 2-14

Troy Smith or Kyle Boller? Does it count as a QB controversy when they both suck? How about when they both suck enough that rookie Joe Flacco beats them out? It will be interesting to see how this team plays for their first new coach (former Eagles’ assistant John Harbaugh) in awhile, and it’s possible they could surprise, but looking at their offense, it’s clear that this is a team in transition.

AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts, 12-4

Prepare yourself to see Peyton and Eli commercials the entire season. Hooray. The Colts do everything they can to keep Peyton happy, and therefore the story of their franchise through his tenure has been simple: Fantastic offense, below average defense. This season will be no different, especially if Dwight Freeney cannot recover from last season’s injury.

Tennessee Titans, 9-7

The Titans passed on several receivers for Vince Young in order to draft their 3rd high round running back in 3 years in Chris Johnson. Between him, and healthy LenDale White and last year’s 2nd round pick Chris Henry, the Titans HAVE to have a decent running game, right? If they don’t we are looking at a Detroit Lions’ wide receiver situation. Between a theoretically improved running game, the crafty Vince Young and a defense that was 5th in NFL last year, they will be in the playoff hunt.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars, 8-8

David Garrard burst onto the scene last year with a 102.2 passer rating in his first season. However, he was helped in that regard by the 2nd best rushing attack in all of football, so he only had to pass for 2,500 yards on the season. This year, however, I think he’s going to be asked to do a lot more, because I don’t see Fred Taylor having the same kind of year he did last year. The defense is solid, but they will be relying a lot on a couple of rookie DE’s to pressure the QB, one of which was the last to sign his contract.

4. Houston Texans, 6-10

Houston enjoyed their best season in franchise history last year at 8-8. Unfortunately, they have the misfortune of being in the toughest division in the AFC. The Texans have done a good job of getting some stars on their roster in Andre Johnson, DeMeco Ryans and Mario “Reggie Who?” Williams, but they need to improve their running game and o-line play before they will get their first playoff birth.

AFC West

1. San Diego Chargers, 13-3

The most talented team in the league, the Chargers have yet to get over the proverbial hump, and with LaDanian Tomlinson entering his 8th season of taking a pounding, the window might close rather quickly and unexpectedly. The offense will be improved with a better Phillip Rivers and a full season of Chris Chambers. The defense, with or without Shawne Merriman, is full of playmakers, and the special teams, with the impossibly quick Darren Sproles, also has game-breaking ability. They were a game away from the Super Bowl last year, and I think this is the year they get there.

2. Oakland Raiders, 8-8

The Raiders could be a surprise team this year. Darren McFadden could be this years’ Adrian Peterson. DeAngelo Hall is eager to prove himself again and will form a fantastic corner due with Nnamdi Asomugha. Gibril Wilson and Kwame Harris were quality off-season additions as well. JaMarcus Russell will get his chance to prove he was worthy of the #1 overall pick and got a little help with the acquisition of Javon Walker. Of course, this is the Raiders, so there are no guarantees, but the talent is there, especially if Russell and McFadden grow up fast.

3. Denver Broncos, 6-10

The Broncos were very recently a team that you count on for a playoff spot year in and year out. However, since John Elway left, the team has been up and down. This year’s version has more questions (Will Jay Culter break out? Is Selvin Young the answer at RB? Will the 4 new defensive starters mesh? Can Brandon Marshall stay out of trouble?) than answers.

4. Kansas City Chiefs, 4-12

I’m not sure why they think Brodie Croyle has a chance to be a good NFL QB. Marginal college QB’s usually equal marginal NFL QB’s. The Chiefs did do themselves well for the future with what was universally thought of as the best draft. 4 players from the draft, DT Glenn Dorsey, LT Branden Albert, FB Mike Cox and CB Brandon Flowers, are expected to start right away.

Playoff Predictions

NFC:

Eagles over Packers
Vikings over Seahawks

Cowboys over Eagles
Saints over Vikings

Saints over Cowboys

AFC:

Browns over Jets
Colts over Steelers

Chargers over Browns
Colts over Patriots

Chargers over Colts

Super Bowl XLIII

San Diego Chargers over New Orleans Saints