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I’m going away this weekend to a cabin that will have no phone service, internet, or TV. So it’s very possible I won’t know who wins the Friday and Saturday games until Sunday.
It’s too bad, because I’m not going to get a lot of chances to see rookie sensation Michael Pineda and/or King Felix this year.
Here are my questions for the series…
- Will the suddenly awake bats be able to hit great pitching in a pitchers’ park?
- Will the call-up of super-prospect Dustin Ackley strike a fire in the Mariners offense?
- Can everyone please vote at least 25 times and try to get Chase Utley into the all-star game?
Expectations: This is a tough series. Long travel day. Two great pitchers going for the Mariners. No Halladay or Lee for us. Ackley coming up. Kind of set-up for losing 2 out of 3….buuuuttttt…. you gotta love how we are playing right now, so I say we take 2 of 3.
If Chase gets elected, he at least gets a choice, so that’s a good thing. So even if somebody thinks the rest would be better, and doesn’t vote to voice that preference, he doesn’t even have a choice. I’ve already turned in my 25, but personally, I’m not gonna complain if he gets the 3 days off. Nor would I be unhappy if he plays, because that’s almost as big, maybe bigger than a regular season game with the home field at stake, and no DH for 4 games would give us a big, big advantage, let alone fewer games at Fenway, Yankee, or Upset Stadium.
By no means is a person required to have a feel for a series as it unfolds. But when you play a team so far removed from daily visibility, it certainly adds intruige to the matchup, and does perk the curiousity.
This Seattle club faces a real interesting few weeks now as the trade deadline approaches. If the 2011 version is a contender, even for a division title, it’s news to me. It’d be shocking to see them compete successfully in any playoff round. They have about as much offense as the spring training lineup the Phils rolled out against the Mets the last time Vance Worley started a game. And that’s only because Ichiro has 5 straight multi hit games. The King may have a successful start to finish, but rookie Michael Pineda is only going to throw so many innings this year, and who knows how much you can get out of Erik Bedard who probably is far from prepared for a season of endurance following his history of injury. Measure those probably drawbacks against the fact that they are within a half game of first place, and the difficulties of to buy or not to buy, and to sell, or not to sell make for interesting discussions with the powers that be.
What I’d most likely expect is a series similar to one last August, when the Phils were playing poorly, and went on a seemingly scary road trip starting with 4 in San Diego. The first place Pads, despite the Phils trend at the time were excited for the series to see how well inflated their balloon was against a “quality” club. During and after the series, the Padres lost 10 in a row and found out they needed a good deal of work, despite having built a 7 game lead just prior to it. That’s not to say Seattle doesn’t have a better core of players and won’t become legitimate within the next year, maybe 2, but this is not a scary series. It’s different, with the DH, unfamiliar park, but the Phils veteran edge could easily play a role.
One thing the M’s will have working in their favor is the addition of Dustin Ackley. His youthful exuberance probably adds a spark to their emotion even though they still shouldn’t score more than 3 runs in any of the games. Even the Saturday night pitching mismatch of King and The Vanimal isn’t necessarily a Seattle lock when you consider the overall lineups which could well come into play.
It would be somewhere between a little and moderatly surprising surprising if Seattle wins 2 games.
Thank you Shane.
I missed the first 4 innings or so. Has the strike zone been this wacky the whole game?
Watching Roy Oswalt pitch the last 2 months is really troubling. It’s well documented how his fastball is barely touching 90, and his strikeouts and swings and misses are uncharacteristically off. The logic side of me says there’s a tangible connection. But I’ll be damned if I have an idea what it is. It’s hard to believe he’s done, it’s too much guesswork, not to mention unfair to think it’s psychological. Even not giving up many runs, as in his last 2 starts, you just don’t sense there isn’t something wrong. I wish I had confidence he’d get it back. Certainly hope so.
Yesterday, Joel Sherman tweeted a quote from an anonymous NL executive. The quote was words to the effect of conviction that Prince Fielder would get a 7 year free agent deal (insert:I think Prince is 27 years old), so if Prince was getting 7, why wouldn’t Jose Reyes get 7? End paraphrased quote. I believe Reyes is 30 years old. Reyes is having the year to end all years, and it’s not surprising, yet still amazing how many city’s fans show up on twitter or the like and inquire of beat writers as to whether they have a shot at him. So many clubs would kill for an offensive shortstop, let alone the once in a lifetime season Reyes is having.
Chone Figgins used to have years kinda sorta like that. He’s now 33. Coming into free agency at the same time the Phils reupped with Plac, the question bandied about wasn’t his skill, but his asking price. That was at a seemingly reasonable age of 31. Last year, Figgins was by and large a major disappointment, yet, wound up with an at least respectable OBP of .340. Not great, but not terrible for a top of the lineup sort. This year, it’s .244. Raise your hand if you’d kill for a .244 OBP. I only see Eric Bruntlett’s hand.
Chances are pretty good Jose Reyes joins a good size list of players that never play quite up to the big free agent contract he’ll get, be it with the Mets, or elsewhere. Chone Figgins, at about .75% of what Reyes probably seeks (15 mil per plus) is already going through the hell of not living up to his deal. It’s probably not much fun. Maybe Reyes will drive a different fate. But it’s a helluva risk.
The subject of ballplayers on twitter has come up around the game of late. Logan Morrison and Ozzie Guillen have made a lot of news by tweeting so much that perhaps by coincidence, the Wall Street Journal had an articale recently that wondered if we even need sportswriters anymore. I kinda get the feeling there might actually be a fair amount of players that have signed up as twitbirds. Came to my attention this morning that no less than @RealKingFelix is one of such. A scan through his offerings show a real passion for the Miami Heat. What a twit! No right thinking American or German, for that matter would have rooted against Dirk. All the more reason to kick the King’s butt tonight.
already in better get it while we can mode 2 batters in. Better than not, that’s for sure.
We need Polly to start hitting again. He has been cold for over a month now.
The next team that will threaten the Phils for the division is the Washington Nationals…in 2013. It is time we put the Atlanta Braves “juggernaut” to rest – every year I have to read the overrated hype. They are just that…. overrated. They only have one better than average part of their team and that is middle relief – and Ventors may have a dead arm by September at the pace they are (having to) using him.
The best thing that could happen to the Philsin the case of the Mets is the Mets now are “forced” to resign Reyes. They need to spend for pitching so bad it is silly. LEt them use up their dough on Reyes. Plus, Reyes doesn’t go to a team that could hurt us.
Vance don’t look so good.
It’s not exactly game be damned, but I’d be impressed if Worley regrouped fast and settled down. Hasn’t had many ops in the majors to show he can stop bleeding.
Interested to see how Vance does as he completes the 2nd time through the lineup. Already at 52 pitches, + or – a couple, but it’s a lot.
Against King, any time you get a runner to 3rd, it’s an opportunity you gotta come through on. Problem is the next batter still has to face him.
Now as Polly steps in, and I think about how common sense says he’ll hit again soon, he has a chance to up the pace. he’s at .274 OBP for the month, no multi hit games in last 12. Tough pitcher to break a slump off of.
so, are we gonna have to steal home now to score on this guy?
JRoll on 2nd after the stolen base, our hottest hitter up, and we still don’t score.
changing the objectives for this game: take pitches, keep the score even and wait till the King retires to his bedchambers. Knaves will come out to play in the pen for sure.
How ’bout that. hangin in against the King tied thru 5. Not bad. Trying to get a handle on Vance’s velocity tonight. I don’t believe he’s topped 91, and he’s been up in the 93-94 range before. He’s struck out 3, walked 2.
One thing for sure, the control issues Felix had in his recent starts aren’t present tonight. Trying to draw a walk off him is a waste of time. Frankly, we’re fortunate his pitch count is even as high as it is.
wow good hitting Brown. If we can’t score here….
well, this is about as good as it can get with Jimmy having 2 hits so far, obviously seeing the ball well.
Helluva job by Jimmy tonight. So now if Shane can somehow work him, get a hitters count, it gets interesting.
huge hit. huge break. this could be the ballgame.
B ad time to say this because it seems so emotion driven off that, but it’s been on my mind, and I wonder if Shane has a shot at making the all-star team. Gotta get some more here.
OF positions are always chock full of talented hitters. And since you really dont get much cred for your glove, I’d say no way.
To change the topic, is Vic’s natural side his right? He looks like Al freaking Pujols when he faces lefties. Sometimes I think he should stop the switch hitting and just hit from the right side.
Uh-Oh trouble…
I’ve not tracked it this year, but I know last year, both he and Jimmy were much better average wise from this side. But I don’t know the answer to your question, but I think he’s a natural righty..
I wouldn’t be so quick to say no way. You have to look at the contenders and see. It wasn’t a question requesting an immediate answer, more just something I’d started thinking of a couple days back and will check into it to get a feel at my own pace. I just know this. He’s done some terrific things this year.
last year, both he and Jimmy were much better average wise from this side>>
No doubt that was helpful.
I meant the right side.
Shane Victorino .296, 7 HR, 24 RBI
Matt Kemp .331, 20 HR, 57 RBI
R. Braun: .311 15HR 51 RBI
Lance Berkman .309, 17 HR, 51 RBI
Jay Bruce .281, 17 HR, 48 RBI
Carlos Beltran .286, 10 HR, 43 RBI
Michael Morse .310, 13 HR, 42 RBI
Justin Upton .295, 12 HR, 37 RBI
some comps. hard to tell without the extended stats (SLG%, OBP etc.) but off the top of the list, you should see that others are having much better seasons at the plate. Plus the name recognition factor.
OK scratch that, Vic’s HR just shut me up.
Charlie should think about moving him to the 5 spot.
Okay, now you’re talkin. That’s good intra game stuff. And off the top of my head, only name missing is Ethier. So it’s cool to conclude he’s a longshot, which comes as not very surprising, but I’d say he’d got an outside shot based on that. Outs9ide admittedly including injury fill in which I might be wrong happened before. Cant’ underrate the absence of the OPS, which you said, but everyone of those guys is having a year that Vic would do no better than even with, and not surpass.
I’d also include SB because that’s Shane’s primary contribution to this team (speed & baserunning) Braun and Kemp are probably up there in steals too and Upton may be as well. 8 homers and 20ish steals is probably close to as valuable on all star ballots as 20 homers and 8 steals.
I looked it up and Shane only has 11 steals (i guess cuz he missed some time) He’d probably have to go on a real hot streak to make the AS team.
Stutes probably has next to zero shot at ROY, even among pitchers, Kimbrel as a closer is in a much more visible role as the closer, but this guy has really been a godsend.
The funny thing about Gload’s prior at bat was he ran. And I can’t help but wonder if Charlie didn’t pinch run for him because he maybe didn’t think Dom would get a hit. I know Dom’s BA isn’t where we want it, but it’s another example of how batting average is a lesser statistic because he continues to have good at bats, and has prompted confidence that he’ll be fine. People see his average, subject to a small quantity of at bats still fluctuate a lot, and the .218 going into his big at bat just seems so deceptive. But it was nice to see that Gload can run.
If Stutes can’t do it, Bastardo will. And that doesn’t even include Madson. Pretty nice bullpen. ya gotta love it.
I love Jimmy’s teases like this where he accounts for himself offensively like he’s what he was, and then his game drifts back down again.
This is not an easy game, for whatever reason.
Man has played some excellent hardball tonight. 3 hits now.
my guess; he’s not 25 anymore so he can’t always go full speed.
notice how he pops up and strikes out in the early stages of the game, looks horrible and then the one at-bat that matters, he comes up clutch. yeah I think it’s just age.
forget researching if Vic belongs on the all star team. That homer’s some nice reseacrh in and of itself.
And Happy First time Father’s Day to the centerfielder. ^5.
Vic’s OPS after tonight is .893, dwarfing career highs in previous years by about .100 points. Career OPS .776.
In fairness, it was .857 going in, so you see how 1 good game can influence it, and the .893 is a little deceiving in that regard.
Ops puts a lot of weight on homers & extra base hits. I usually don’t count a low ops against top of the order guys cause I don’t really see that as their job, but as Charlie would say, you know, like at the same time he’s swinging the bat real good right now. I’ll definitely take it
Dave Sims, really a fine broadcaster, and 5 year voice of the M’s TV network just began his wrap with 2 words, Shane Victorino.
Huh?
Top of the lineup, Dave.
5 words tonight. Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino.
Nicely positioned to win 2 of 3.
Happy Father’s Day where applicable, and a good week ahead.
Phillies wanted to win last night.
Shane, all-star? Good to date, by local precinct standards. But his votes depend mostly from a block of the Pheverish. Those 7 triples … What in the Sam Hill or Ty Cobb is goin’ on?
Disappointed no reporter dared to ask Utley Fri nite what he was thinking catching ball halfway right field line with back to plate, removing only chance, Brown’s, of nailing what turned out to be deciding run at plate. Lately: 2nd base, it’s not just a job, it’s an adventure.
I’d put that one on Dom Brown. He should have called Utley off. I don’t know if he was just deferring or not aggressive enough but it’s his ball. With his plus arm, no way that runner on 3rd even takes his foot off the bag. I think majority of infielders (some 1B too) will go after about every ball that is within their range, whether they can make the play or not.
Uggh, Vargas is the word for the day.
Clean up, fly out and act like we didn’t just get shut out in dominating fashion.
Still owners of the best record. Enough padding in our pride to take that hit.
The Seattle series was an example of the Phillies fan’s worse nightmare. While we have the pitching to shut down any team in a playoff series, we are equally able to be shut down even moreso but even lesser pitching staffs. The end result is the stark and very possibility that we can so easily lose a series to the worse hitting team in baseball even when our starters do well.
I don’t know about you but I will never really feel like a favorite in a post-season series. I feel like we are a favorite over 162 games season, but not is a 5 or 7 game series. Although against almost any team except Boston, I will feel like we would be co-favorites because of the starting staff we have.
situational hitting – a word not present in the Phils playbook.
We are very often unable to just scrap out runs when we aren’t hitting for extra bases and yard balls. Exhibit A – 2010 NLCS.
I guess there’s always going to be that in the back of your mind. But with our bullpen is looking nice and solid, so I am much less worried.
Put it into perspective though; it’s one game in a long season. Every team at some point is liable to get shut out. Perhaps only the Yanks have that sort of immunity.
Frustrating game, to say the least. The lineup, the poor defense that led to the “earned” runs that Cole gave up; the decision to let him pitch the 7th inning, etc. I am still waiting for a sound argument for keeping Martinez. Do they think that he’ll get better in the future ? The bench needs some changes.
case in point, for those who did not have the pleasure of watching the games over the weekend:
Phils w RISP: 2 for 14. 11 of those chances came in one game against the King. 19 runners LOB.
Not uncommon numbers for the Phils, the difference is the result.
Anyone have ESPN Insider? This article caught my eye and really pissed me off because it sounds like one of those ignorant presuppositions that come from people who believe that the players that highlight SportsCenter’s “Web Gems” section should all be rewarded with Gold Gloves bcos ‘gosh darn! how d’he do that?‘ For whatever the Phils lacked, defense had never been one of them, it’s worse this year with injuries, Ibanez and Werth subtractions, but I’d really like to hear what kind of argument that guy’s got.
Yeah I have it jkay. If Pete allows me to post the entire article, I will do so. But, some blogs don’t allow it because they fear that they could get into trouble by publishing the article itself .
I can summarize the main focus of the article which is that fielding percentage is, by itself, useful but not conclusive in determining whether a fielder is really good or not. This is not a new idea as Bill James devised a formula for range factors of fielders which allowed for including plays that a fielder makes. Now, there is a new group which focuses on plays that a fielder doesn’t make by measuring location and velocity of balls hit.
Based on this new analysis, the Phillies, as a team, are among the worst defensively in baseball despite the fact that are the best when it comes to fielding percentage.
our defense has definitely not been good this year. Jimmy’s range is not at all what it once was, Raul never had much range & its worse now, Neither Francisco nor Raul have good arms, Brown has potential but has also made rookie mistakes. Utley has been good at times, but was pretty rusty for a while, and is also prone to making the occasional bad throw. Howard is improved but still only average. Polano’s range isn’t great but his glove is. Mayberry is pretty good but hasn’t played much. Valdez & chooch are the bright spots (and Victorino when he’s been healthy).
Now, there is a new group which focuses on plays that a fielder doesn’t make by measuring location and velocity of balls hit.
sounds painstaking and interesting. does it take into account, the angle or position from which the player has to approach, like if they are playing some sort of pull shift or they are initially in motion?
I wouldn’t suggest posting the full article in the comments – too long for that format and outright posting content like that could get us in trouble if anyone paid attention (they don’t really, we are just a small guy).
But Pete may want to address it in a post – that would be the way to go. That way he can address the article point by point so you get enough of the article plus the added commentary so it’s not outright copyright infringement.
Cool. Here’s my argument in favor of fielding %.
I get that it is no indication of range. In fact, better fielding players will go after balls that the average joes wouldn’t and attempt to make difficult plays, the lack of success of which, will lower the %age. Committing an error in my mind has much of an impact on a game than the inability to make a play. First, it takes away a sure out the pitcher was expecting and increases his work load. Two, in the worse of the scenario, it results in an extra base or run. I compare it to a turnover in football. No matter how talented an offense is, it is useless if it keeps racking up yards and then turns the ball over and can’t score. If plays are left on the field by limited fielders as opposed to the better ranging ones, those have much less impact. Only perhaps say in crucial situations like 2 outs with runners on base, to make a run saving catch or throw.
I am of the firm belief that most of the players starting for a Major League team have to meet some acceptable standard of fielding. It is upon that intrinsic quality that the scorers judge whether a play is an error or a hit i.e. whether he should have made the play or not. So by that virtue, the average of average joes should sport a decent looking fielding %age (hypothetically, let’s say 75%). This means he will convert at least 3 of every 4 balls hit his way, that he is expected to. If he somehow gets to more, the stat does not reward him and then it punishes him if he goes after everything. So fielding %age is flawed?
Jimmy has won the Gold Glove for 3 yrs in a row because of both his range and his fielding %. To show tremendous range and ability to make plays that are normally left on the field and combine that with tremendous efficiency (a mark of discipline and focus) is what makes him a Gold Glover. Jose Reyes has just as tremendous range and makes some plays that are equally as tough but without the efficiency. The efficiency is representative of his work as a whole, not just the tough ones. His occasional gaffes on routine plays or mental lapses factor in.
So individually you could have varying types of fielders; good range guys with low efficiency, low range guys with high efficiency that make all the safe plays, and then the upper echelon that can do both very well. But for a team, that collectively plays behind their pitcher, team defense is most dependent on not fucking up. Because all 9 players are linked, a misplay by any single one player has an impact on the whole team’s ability to function. e.g. outfielders throwing home and allowing the runner(s) on 1st or 2nd to advance. Even if we had a team with a lot of safe guys who make no good ranging plays, the plays left on the field would, in most circumstances have less of an impact that an error would.
Well most teams have a mix of all these guys so that’s another factor. Anyways I feel for team defense, fielding % is a much better indicator of how the unit as a whole functions than it is for the individual. I put more credibility into it than that guy probably does.
Jkay - The article is pretty sound in it’s argument. It lays out a defensive analysis and and plus/minus model that is derived from looking at film of every ball hit and charting it’s location and velocity (hard, medium, soft).
This allows the analyst to approximate difficulty of fielding each ball in play for each fielder.
With all that data in hand you can identify a baseline of the average fielder and everything is then gauged against that baseline. So some players will be better than average and worse than average.
The better fielders will help their team and pitcher by recording more outs than average and the below average fielders will allow more hits than average, hurting their team compared to the baseline.
The money quote:
This is why range is so critical. When compared against the “average” you can derive whether a fielder helps, hurts or is neutral for his team. And since baseball can track so much you can extrapolate that out to runs allowed or prevented by a fielder.
Yes, a guy can be sure-handed on balls hit right at him, but if his range prevents him from getting to balls an average fielder would get to and plays they would make that sure-fielding player is actually hurting his team.
So in summation it’s not just about errors or range – it’s about plays made which is calculated by both factors.
Make sense?
Very much so, thanks.
If they can successfully record all that consistently , it makes for an almost empirical standard. Plays made that is.
Despite their low error total, the Phillies’ infield has cost the pitching staff about 40 outs and 30 runs this year. – OUCH!
I tend to be skeptical when the hardcore stat-heads try to assign numerical values to something like how many outs could have been made, or how many runs could have been avoided. I think these guys have done a lot of good in giving us more perspective on the game than we had before, but sometimes overreach a bit in trying to quantify things that aren’t really quantifiable. At least this guy hedges a bit by saying “about 40 outs” and “about 30 runs” though.
having said that, and without having read the article (I’m not an Insider) the general conclusion that our defense has really been costing us this year pretty much agrees with what i’ve observed. Plays that would have been made in past years aren’t getting made, and its impacting games. I’ve posted on this a few times over the course of the season – i think its a bigger isssue than the offense not scoring as many runs in years past – or at least its an issue that’s flying under the radar too much because of all the focus on the offense.
Another thing to keep in mind as well is that “errors” are highly subjective as well. There have been quite a few plays that were deemed not an error that if I was the official scorer would have counted as an error. So even fielding percentage has a subjective element to it as well.
Good point. Many a botched ball is deemed a hit by the hometown deemer.
Agreed.
Did anyone ever think this stats age we are now in is simply a glorified way to make a buck? There are alot of people out there making a good buck who were once shlepping from 9 to 5 somewhere. Now they tell us how important the range of a 1st baseman is and convince us how it impacts a game. They come up with ratios that are suppossed to….well I am not sure what they are supposeed to tell us at the end of the day.
At this moment, do we really need to know anymore than Pujols (when healthy) is a better player than Howard, who is better than Ike Davis. And Joey Votto and Prince Fielder are probably somewhere between Pujols and Howard at this moment? Don’t we want to know who is the better “player”, not who is the better fielder, or better baserunner, or better….? Pujols and Fielder are up for contracts after this year. IS anyone really going to focus on their baserunning when hammering out a deal?