Comments on: Reminder! NLDS Game 2 Live Blog Today at 2:30!

By: bski

bski — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 17:23:12 +0000

Alright, jjg. It was the blindly loyal fan in me that was calling for a CG from Hamels. I’ll be a realist and settle for 8 innings.

By: jjg

jjg — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 16:43:35 +0000

bski, On Hamels heavin’ a complete game today: fairly thin chance based on his history. 116 GS, 6 CG – 19.33 to 1 odds. On the other hand, 46,000 leatherlungs cheering you on can have steroidal effects.

By: bski

bski — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 16:15:08 +0000

tk76,

The Phils followed your blueprint for postseason success yesterday. Get a complete game from the starter and you don’t need to worry about the closer, or the rest of the bullpen for that matter.

Hopefully Hamels can do the same today, and both of them can continue doing it. I’ll take 10 more games like yesterday, thank you very much. Makes it a lot of fun, and a lot less nerve-wracking, to watch.

By: bski

bski — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 16:07:47 +0000

His BAbip was .291 in 2007 and .282 in 2007........ Correction: Hamels' BAbip was .291 in 2006 and .282 in 2007, (then .262 in 2008 and finally .321 in 2009). Sorry about that. 10 off Cook sounds great to me, Pete. Then Hamels can relax, focus, attack the hitters, and duplicate what Lee did yesterday (and what he did last year).

By: Pete

Pete — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 15:43:36 +0000

Saw that – that .321 BABIP is real high too. Good research bski.

Certainly promising for today’s game. But I say we just get 10 off of Cook so we don’t have to worry about it.

By: bski

bski — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 15:39:24 +0000

I found this exchange in Rob Neyer’s chat from Tuesday:
Joshua (annapolis, md)

which Cole Hamels shows up this week?
Rob Neyer
(12:29 PM)

Cole Hamels is exactly as good right now as he was a year ago. Then, he was slightly overrated; now he’s slightly underrated. Either way, he’s a lovely No. 2 starter.
Ben (Boston)

“Cole Hamels is exactly as good right now as he was a year ago.” No, he’s not. That implies he’s pitching just as well now as he was then, and if he’s less successful it’s just bad luck. Do you refuse to recognize that players go through hot streaks (when everything clicks) and cold streaks (when they lose their touch)? That’s just being a human being. Hamels in a hot streak is better than Hamels when he’s not so hot.
Rob Neyer
(12:55 PM)

With all due respect, Ben … Are we *really* still having this conversation? If so, I suppose I should be glad; it means my work’s not yet done. But would you look at Hamels? His HR, BB, and K rates are almost EXACTLY the same as last season. The difference in his ERA’s is due mostly to luck; last year he was lucky, this year he’s been unlucky. But he’s fundamentally the same pitcher.

I decided to check this out and here is what I found……
2008/2009:
7.8/7.8 (K/9)
2.1/2.0 (BB/9)
1.1/1.1 (HR/9)
3.70/3.91 (K/BB)
7.6/9.6 (H/9)
.262/.321 (BAbip)

The numbers seem to bear Neyer out. There were several times this year when Hamels (and Manuel, and Dubee) said that he was throwing well but the results were not there. It seemed like he gave up a lot of bleeders, bloopers, broken bat flares, and the like this year. Could that be it then? Was Hamels a little lucky last year and simply unlucky this year? His BAbip was .291 in 2007 and .282 in 2007, so maybe.

Whatever the case, let’s hope he can start to make his own luck today and pitch like he did in last year’s playoffs.