I have gotten away from this a little bit, but will try to do better in the 2nd half of the year.
Of course I have also decided to make it more complicated by adding a Cy Young watch to this post, so that we can track the Cy Young race the same way we are tracking the Greatness Watch. The results of the first go around on the Cy Young watch could surprise you…
Greatness Watch
Stats (Ranked by ERA)
Rankings
A Couple Notes
- 4th is probably the highest that Halladay will get on this. And NO ONE is catching Pedro.
- One thing you will notice is that ALL of these pitches have good BB/9 rates, and those who lead in the ERA category have excellent rates.
- Pedro and Maddux both are near Halladay in IP, but both were handled with kid gloves during the season and made only 29 and 28 starts respectively. Halladay will likely make 7-8 more than them.
Cy Young Watch
Stats
Rankings
A Couple Notes
- Surprised to see Wainwright in first? I was – but looking at the numbers, he’s certainly deserving. Very, very solid across the board. No weaknesses.
- Right n0w, this is pretty much a toss-up, but I imagine one or two of these guys will “falter” in the 2nd half, and maybe someone else (Lincecum?) will emerge as a dark horse candidate.
I’ll be very curious to see how this race plays out. If Halladay ends up leading the league in IP, strikeouts, fewest walks (and possibly a couple more like ERA and WHIP), but finishes with a W/L record something like 19-13 does he have a shot at the Cy?
Has sabermetrics been accepted and embraced enough for a guy with the best peripherals to win the Cy over a guy (or guys) with a better W/L record?
If they all stay pretty tightly bunched stat-wise, gotta figure that the best W/L record wins it. Or, to look at it another way, Halladay would need to lead by a considerable margin in pretty much every other category to overcome say a 25-5 record by Ubaldo? Even then he’d have a tough time I’d think.
Too bad we haven’t been scoring runs for him. A 14-3 record now and he’d be right there in everyone’s mind (10-7 has to detract for some—enough to hurt his chances I’m sure).
“Has sabermetrics been accepted and embraced enough for a guy with the best peripherals to win the Cy over a guy (or guys) with a better W/L record?”
Not really. Many voters still do not understand that W-L is probably the “stat” that pitchers have the least control over it. 50% of it is what their offense does.
Sabermetrics fusses like a doting mother over a child, sometimes making excuses for Sunny Boy in his shadowed peformance comparison.
W-L record is the stern father … just get it done. 15-1, 10-7: not close.
“50% is of it [W-L record] is what their offense does.” I disagree. A large majority of it is what the pitcher (mound pilot) does within the framework of observed (or observable) competitive conditions. If it’s zeros on one side, the great pitcher keeps the score in balance, lands safely, without a loss, though perhaps not with a win. The term “great” should be used sparingly in order to maintain its integrity. I attribute 7 losses to flawed pitches, not fallow bats.
Just for the heck of it I decided to check another (some may say rather esoteric) peripheral, xFIP.
Halladay is #1 in all of MLB at 2.94. Johnson is #2 at 3.06. Wainwright is #3 at 3.25. Jimenez is #7 (#5 in the NL behind Haren-3.44) at 3.71.
What the heck is Moyer starting for? Halladay better go tomorrow and Hamels Sat. Halladay’s work on Tues couldn’t be considered more than a regular workout between starts.
I was hoping we would start the second half:
Hamels (buck it up on 4 days rest kid!)
Halladay
Blanton
Kendrick
Moyer
Strike that last post – Hamels would be on 3 days rest. Hope we see Halladay tomorrow
” A large majority of it is what the pitcher (mound pilot) does within the framework of observed (or observable) competitive conditions. If it’s zeros on one side, the great pitcher keeps the score in balance, lands safely, without a loss, though perhaps not with a win. ”
I can relate to that, to a certain extent. The problem in this instance is that you’re talking about two guys with the same ERA & WHIP, and Halladay has pitched 21 more innings (2 1/3 more games). So its kind of tough to write off run support when considering a discrepancy in the win/loss column if you are dealing with two guys who allow the exact same amount of runs per 9 innings.
If anything, you’ve got a dead heat. Personally, i think you have to give the nod to Halladay for saving our bullpen 21 innings over Ubaldo.
Ryan showing some serious lumber. As I said, why the heck to start the second half with Moyer??????
Many voters still do not understand that W-L is probably the “stat” that pitchers have the least control over it. 50% of it is what their offense does.>>
I think that’s a slap at the baseball writing community. Just because 1 sore thumb appears and screws an MVP or Cy candidate by leaving a guy off the ballot every year or two, or voting him down doesn’t mean the group as a whole doesn’t do a good job. I’d be inclined to agree with your statement had you put a few, or maybe some, but in this day and age of blogging, and 24/7 MLB broadcasting, quite a few guys give lengthy reasoning behind their selections, and get into some fairly heavy statistical stuff. I don’t think there are that many people at all that follow the game that place such a premium solely on W-L. You always hear references to Gibson and Koufax. You don’t hear references to Denny McLain and Bob Welch. Not that their big win seasons were less than terrific, but I don’t think W-L is that overplayed.
Lincecum was what, 16-6 last year? Bedrock Bruce Sutter, Mike Marshall all won Cys and those weren’t based on W’s.
Staying positive…
Since Moyer was pitching well but did not last night, I’m looking for Blanton, who has not been pitching well, to do so today.
Since everyone brought it up….why is W-L counted in the “greatness watch” when everyone knows its not a great indicator of true value? And if it has to be included, how about adjusting it and making it count for less rather than being equal to something that is more significant to individual player success like ERA K/9 or WHIP?
As for Cy Young, I dont think Ubaldo deserves it over Johnson or Halladay, but remember that none of the stats take into account Park Factor, and it is much harder to pitch in Colorado than it is Florida or Philly.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
two words to disprove the W-L theory; Adam Eaton.
HOW??? How do you walk a pitcher, who does not have a hit this entire season btw, that you have buried in the count 0-2?
lets just hope it doesnt get worse
Lilly has a pretty bad 6 K/9 on the year. Yet of course, 9 K in 5.2 against us.
well, at least Ryan is awake for the 2nd half!
Yeah, 10 of our 18 outs by strikeout. Season high for Lilly, coming immediately on the heels of a season high for Dempster (and 11 total) last night.
Maybe Howard did make the right choice after all in skipping the HR contest.
watching out for Blanton’s kamikaze inning.
Charlie should be on patrol too.
That was quick.
NOW! get him out.
it CAN get worse
Nice job to get out of that, Joe.
bullpen needs to hold it down.
Wheels and McCarthy are beyond painful. Did the REALLY just say the wind took that out? And that McCarthy thought it was a pop up off the bat???? Ramirez watched it and Francisco didn’t move. That ball was CRUSHED… heaven forbid we blame a pitcher for throwing it right down the middle.
they are still talking about
So much for that, jkay.
Gotta hope that we can get to the wild adventure known as Carlos Marmol.
well … kudos to Ramirez.
Madson threw it high.
most guys would pop that up.
that guy was just zoned in.
Heart of the order due up…wind blowing out…wild pitcher on the mound…gotta make it happen.
If Werth wants to stand and watch he should buy a ticket to these games.
Werth waxing Pat Burrell
now we’re hoping for a split.
great
Ugh. Is this what it felt like to be a Mets fan last year?
Hoping is right, jkay. 4 hits and 14 strikeouts, ouch! If our second-half team doesn’t appear soon, well…every game like this only makes it that much tougher and more unlikely.
well, at least Ryan is awake for the 2nd half!>>
I am going to assume that was toungue in cheek. A first half of .296, 17 and 65 is among or is the league leaders in all categories. We would be 12 out without him. He is more than carrying his weight. Utley, Victorino and Werth are huge dissappointments.
While I think Moyer and Kendrick below in the minor leagues, the shortcomings of the team to this point fall squarely on the offense. And you can include everyone with the exception of Ruiz and Howard.
Headlines:
Cubs Win With Marmol Aid; Phils, Toast
Sweet Scent In Windy City: Aramis
Phils Whiff At Day Lily
Hamel’s career ’6 day rest’ (6-5, 4.63) & ‘day’ (14-15, 4.52) splits don’t augur well for Phils. At Wrigley, he’s 1-1, 3.71 in 3 games, 17 innings.
Weather forecast: sunny, 93 degrees, 9 mph NW wind, 58% humidity. I’d say it’s up to the bats today.
On the fielding end, The Big Ticket stinks:
Howard 9 errors 34 assists .989
Fielder 1 error 57 assists .999
Gonzalez 3 errors 68 assists .996
Pujols 3 errors 84 assists .997
Davis 4 errors 52 assists .994
Dunn 5 errors 58 assists .993
Votto 2 errors 77 assists .997
Loney 2 errors 45 assists .998
Helton 4 errors 44 assists .993
Berkman 1 error 58 assists .999
And 20 HRs in 353 ABs (386 PA) with 89 Ks & 26 BBs ain’t nothin’ to write home to Grandma about.
There’s the implosion from Marmol we desperately needed. A 38-pitch extravaganza resulting in 3 runs on 5 walks, 1 wild pitch, 1 hit, and only 2 outs. Marmol set it all up, big hit by Polly, and then Marmol did the rest. The game has been handed to us (Russell just failed to cover first, giving us another run) so let’s take it.
This series is going as expected so far. That of blown opportunity. A split against the Cubs is okay, if only in the sense that this is a 2 way street. A little luck here, a little luck there, and the Phils could find themselves 3.5 out heading into the series with the Cards. The Braves have the potential to run into an extended slump of sorts with the Padres on deck. The Mets look headed for a good morning from 3rd place vantage point in The Sunday papers.
Goes to show you any one of a number of things including its not only about what you do, but your opponent.
Amidst the winning the hard way atmosphere surrounding the Phils, I figure Ruben has some real decisions to make with time growing short.
– While I personally have not thought Pedro was coming back here this year, I can see where those discussions are intensifying behind closed doors and an announcement will come this week or so, unless Amaro is onto something that’s equally quiet. Ruben said he wanted a starter. For what that’s worth, and Pedro’s available.
- What to do with Domonic Brown. I don’t know how hot they are to bring him upbefore September, but it ain’t happening in the next 8-10 days. You don’t bring up to sit, and Carpenter, Wainright and Jimenez should all be opponents in an 8 game set.
- There are more, but those are 2 of the headliners I’m watching.
I’ll be very curious to see how this race plays out. If Halladay ends up leading the league in IP, strikeouts, fewest walks (and possibly a couple more like ERA and WHIP), but finishes with a W/L record something like 19-13 does he have a shot at the Cy?>>
It is setting up perfect for Halladay if the Phils make the playoffs and he gets to 18 wins or more and have sub 2.20 ERA. Those are the three minimum things he needs to win the CY Young. IT is almost better than if the Phils were comfortably in the division lead and coasted and alot of guys on the team were doing well. His work will be highlighted all the more if he is intergral to the second half comeback.
Making the playoffs will mean more to me than a Cy Young. I would bet Doc feels the same way. Imagine he finishes 20-12, sub 2.00 ERA, leads the league in IP and CG, wins the CY but the Phils miss the playoffs. He will be devastated.
Getting back to the subject of relative importance of W-L as a stat, last night’s Bosox-Texas game provided some fine artillery for relavant discussion.
Good pitching matchup, Cliff versus John Lackey. By night’s end, you could say Cliff didn’t get the win, but pitched brilliantly, and enhanced his case for a Cy Young. And almost the same for Lackey.
Or you could say Cliff, for all his successes including 0 walks, leaving his season total at 6, I’m sorry to sound harsh, just did not measure up.
Early on, in a scoreless game, gave up 3 straight hits, and his club fell behind by a run. Write it off as early, or just a run, or any way you wish, he put his team in a hole.
During the time the Rangers managed to take a 2-1 lead with Cliff pitching his usual brilliant self, the Red Sox sent 22 of 23 batters to the plate that failed to get a hit, or obviously even work Lee for a walk.
Bottom 9, 2-1 Texas. Cliff, at about 88 pitches heads to the mound knowing exactly the situation he’s in. He has a 1 run lead to protect. Sure, the Rangers could have scored more off Lackey, and for all I know, might have had runners in scoring position that they failed to drive home. The bottom line is they didn’t.
Nor did Cliff. Kevin Youkalis got the game tying hit and the Red Sox won in 11.
For all the stats that Lee accumulated in the game that added to his season and career brilliance, he failed to win the game. W-L can definitely be a decieving stat. Never saw a better example than Jim Merrit in the early 70s at 20-8 for the Reds with a then sky high 4.08 ERA until Roger Pavlik won 11 at the all star break with a 5 plus ERA in the mid 90s. But its always part of the equation. No question, Cliff built up some impressive stats last night enhancing his ERA, WHIP et al, but the bottom line is he lost and had a lead to protect going into the 9th.
Harsh though it may be, the one less W in this case is accurate, no matter how good his other numbers are.
It is setting up perfect for Halladay if the Phils make the playoffs and he gets to 18 wins or more and have sub 2.20 ERA. Those are the three minimum things he needs to win the CY Young.>>
To win 18, Doc has to win 8 more. If Ubaldo wins 8 more also, you’re talking a 23 win season, and a significant difference. If Doc led the league in numerous categories, Ubaldo would have to come up pretty soft in a couple areas to get my vote at that point. Not Halladay strong and Ubaldo less strong, but Halladay strong and Ubaldo weak type stuff. The race is Ubaldo’s to lose. And as I suggested a couple weeks back, with the eye in the back of your head, watch Adam Wainright from the corner of it. These are the 3 leaders. Lincecum has a lot of ground to make up and needs the others to only pitch above average to have any chance.
The Cy Young Award is Ubaldo Jimenez’s to lose. But that’s progress. A few weeks ago, it wasn’t even arguable.
I never did read the reason for Moyer going in Game 1. Let alone Cole and then Blanton. When Charlie pulled Doc intra inning Tuesday, I assumed it was pitch count type related to be fresh for Thursday.
Still not knowing why he has been held back to tonight, I can only assume its to have had a really nice break after a heavy late first half workload. This may prove to be pretty smart. I would anticipate Halladay being particularly strong tonight and my feeling is it will be very hard for the Phils to lose this game.
Jimmy Rollins is signed through next year, in part thanks to the Phils strange timing of exercising the 2011 option back in the spring. Numerous stats during the Phils winning times have tied wins to Rollins scoring, an MVP season, and numerous well deserved accolades.
And he’s still a good player, particularly defense considered.
But while there appeared a matter of how much and how long JRoll’s next, or final Phils contract would be, you wonder how open to discussion that might now be.
Without Rollins the first time, the Phils kept on keeping on. Injury number 2 had us thinking that when he came back things would be different. They aren’t much different. The club keeps struggling and its obvious that a playoff spot is gonna be a survival of the fittest and not a dominant team resurfacing. JRoll is more clutch than not, but on the whole, no hotter than cold.
Let’s just say that the Phils are probably projecting their 2012 shortstop pretty openly at this point.
On the fielding end, The Big Ticket stinks:
Howard 9 errors 34 assists .989
Fielder 1 error 57 assists .999
Gonzalez 3 errors 68 assists .996
Pujols 3 errors 84 assists .997
Davis 4 errors 52 assists .994
Dunn 5 errors 58 assists .993
Votto 2 errors 77 assists .997
Loney 2 errors 45 assists .998
Helton 4 errors 44 assists .993
Berkman 1 error 58 assists .999
And 20 HRs in 353 ABs (386 PA) with 89 Ks & 26 BBs ain’t nothin’ to write home to Grandma about.>>
Funny how you fail to note batting average. I guess that stat no longer is very important, although, stupid me, I could have sworn there was much constrernation on this board last year about that. “if only he could get the BA up and the strikouts down.” Like clockwork, the volcano is erupting in mid July. But hey, maybe Klesko of Helton is available for a straight up trade.
Howard .299 ave
Fielder .263
Gonzalez .304 ave
Pujols .308
Davis .255
Dunn .291
Votto .311
Loney .309
Helton .246
Berkman .250
Well he sits at .299 and on pace for 40 fewer K’s than last year and still leagues the league in RBI and of course will lead the leade in homers again when all is said and done. This time the volcano is erupting with a starting BA in the .290s and not the .250s. If he has his NORMAL second half he will probably lead all 1B in average now too. But hey, maybe Klesko of Helton is available for a straight up trade.
Gotta love the Howard haters. It is ashame. It is getting a bit like what I remember about the Shmitty haters. Howard will be a hall-of-famer when all is said and done and likly the 2nd greatest position player in the modern day history of this team and certainly the most exciting, well-remembered, and impactfull.
I certainly hope people aren’t letting his pay get in the way of their judgement of Howard the player and person. Howard did not demand 25 mill or hold out or threaten to seek a trade. Montgomery and friends CAME to him. Judging whether a player like Howard is WORTH 25 mill is a losing game. There are too many intangibles (no griping, working his but off to become better even if he is filthy rich, consummate team player, rarely hurt – or plays hurt) PLUS the tangible that he is a future
HOFer. So your beef is really with Montgomery’s evaluation of Howard. Just enjoy the player and what we get to enjoy for the next 3 months every year – the most dominating and feared hitter in all of baseball when other players are starting to wilt.
Gotta love Howard lovers. When facts of sub-par defense – whether he’s chubby or slimmed down - are presented, the talk turns all offense. My full admiration goes to complete baseball players like Pujols. Please be aware, Howard’s ways turned off this observer before his recent contract gift. Personally, don’t care much for the Big Man persona, or his incomplete game.
I guess you don’t like world titles. Its a team game and we have none without him.
Your suggesting Ryan Howard is irreplaceable in a winning line-up. I find that notion laughable.
You’re
My spelling is laughable sometimes.
He who laughs lasts.
Have a good day, seriously.
Phillyfan,
I didn’t see it on SI.com this week, but I heard a list they had of the player determined most overerrated player in the game. As you might be aware. Derek Jeter tends to win that award annually, or at least worst defensive shortstop. And that may show how little truth they put into the vote because like him or not, Jeter is a good player, though perhaps overrated at times.
Anyway, they counted em down and I listened wondering if RH would make the list. They got closer to the top, and no RH. Joba was the most overerated.
Jeter was 4 and I don’t recall the others.
Anyway, its okay by me that you have passion and quickness to defend The Big Man on many opportunities. He has had a memorable career on the whole, and carries a team at times like few others. But he’s got weaknesses and I wonder if you would care to state those. Speaking for myself, but suspecting others see it this way, when I speak of his negatives, it’s not forgetful of those strengths. The strikeouts don’t even move runners along, and that can magnify the degree of pissedoffedness. And while the money is secondary, what do you expect, and who is the face in front of us that the front office decided to give him enough money for 1-2 better than average pitchers? It might not be his fault, but he’s the guy in front. So does he have any weaknesses in your eyes, and what are they?
I hope he slams 3 homers tonight.
I see Jim Tracy is pitching Ubaldo tomorrow night. This means he will miss Halladay on Friay night and match up against Kyle Kendrick on Saturday.
Or maybe it just worked out that way.
You could accumulate quite a bloopers tape of balls not touhed that aren’t called errors for that reason. What a lousy inning of execution.
Interesting play. Werth tries to pull an outside pitch, and they talk about Ramirez making a great play, and Werth giving all out hustle.
Nice, now we’re virtually guaranteed the meat of the order with less than 2 outs. On the Halladay walk starting it.
At a minimum, you wanna get to the top of the order for the next inning by getting to Halladay this inning. Not let this kid off the ropes.
Let’s see. Personalities that did Philly and Chicago. Tony Taylor, Bowa, Al Meltzer, Landecker, I think Crim worked in Chicago. Chet and Jim Washington thanks to each other. Me. Didn’t Mort Crim anchor in Chitown? Johnny Callison played for the White Sox. Crash, of course. Somebody on this years Flyers team. McNabb grew up there. My dad. And we at least got to the bottom of the order. Baby steps.
Well, that’s just charming. 6-2 Cubs. I don’t know about game, set, match but that is unbelievable.
It’s funny how unpredictable this game is. Either that, or I’m just plain stupid. I was rock solid positive Doc would be great tonight off so much rest. I know the rust, out of rhythm deal but I expected that out of Ubaldo tomorrow night, and I guess this means he’ll pitch a gem.
Well, onto the 7th, and the top of the order’s up. And maybe bartman is at the game. And is the Cubs. There’s always hope. And Larry Jackson and Bob Buhl did Chi and Philly.
If you were listening to ESPN tonight you heard One player in the history of the game of baseball has had more than Howards’s 4 consecutive seasons of 45+ HR and 135+ RBI. His name was Babe Ruth. Just think about that a bit and let it sink in. So I guess that makes him a “memorable” player.
So to point out he is not a gold-glove fielder is a bit odd, to say the least. First, everyone knows he isn’t a great fielder. Did Babe Ruth steal 70 bases a season? Do we dwell on his lack of speed in an era when speed was a big deal?
Do I think he has any weaknesses? No. He is an average fielder, between strength and weakness, it is called ordinary. That is OK. Does his fielding regularly cost us games. Honestly, I don’t recall many, if any. If it did then it certainly would be a weakness. Adam Dunn has a weakness in fielding.
Howard to me is alot like Julius Erving. He wasn’t the greatest outside shooter and there were better ballhandlers, but his impact on the game was not measurable and his greatness is not disputed. Maybe Pujols would be Magic Johnson, who could do everything well.
Just watch a game and see how pitcher reacts when they K Ryan Howard in a key situation compared to another player. You can see they see it as an ultimate challenge against a great player. That is really telling, as much as sabermetrics. You info on overrated players is telling too, especially since there is certainly some player jealousy out there with the recent contract. My point isn’t to argue he is the greatest 1B in the game. But I think his game should be appreciated more. We may never see another Philly that produces these numbers in our lifetime.
Ashame it looks like Halladay is not an ace tonight.
You don’t do this, its plain stupid, but I’d love to see Lou walk RyHo just to see what Werth could do with them loaded.
I meant the last post as an address to Ken.
Chances are Werth goes into his usual try to kill the ball act here.
I wonder how often Charlie and Milt have talked to JW about that. Maybe once for every fan at the game tonight?
Awesome baseball. It’s one thing when a big stick like Howard swings at a first pitch, maybe he saw a pitch he liked even if me missed it, but this Fransisco guy has to swing at the first pitch and deny Werth a chance to steal and get runners in scoring position and maybe rattle the pitcher. Typical of a team that can’t manufacture runs.
victorino looks like he is coming around. hitting alot of hard balls at people. Howard is hitting everything solid. If Polanco returns to form and Rollins can contribute I see some hope with the offense.
Werth sure is making Amaro’s decision easier. Fans won’t be able to see him go soon enough if he doesn’t turn it around.
Phillyfan,
Thanks for the answer. I disagree with you on your defensive assessment, but that’s cool. You did Ryan no favor to me by comping him to Doc Erving.
I was not really a big fan of his, especially after he went to the NBA. What Doc did well was all well and good, but I never had the feeling he did it as well as Connie Hawkins (before him) and got a lot of hype. What Ryan does do well, he does really well, which Doc did also, but I didn’t see it as impactful as what Ryan does. Anyway, I’m getting way off subject.
And the Cubs just keep on rolling.
I wonder if Charlie thought of pinch hitting Ibanez for Fransisco before that last inning debacle.
Actually had at least 3 good swings that inning. Shame we couldn’t do more than the 1 and maybe at least get within striking distance.
Another 1-3 weekend after being outplayed by another sub-par team. The flat-out lousy baseball continues. I do not want to read any player quotes tomorrow about how they’ve been here before…about how they are battle tested…about how they know what they need to do…about how they are confident they can put a run together…and all the rest of it until we stop embarrassing ourselves out there and start playing consistent baseball.
b.ski,
Personally, I’d like the opposite. I’d like see somebody show some anger. I don’t care if its shown in private. I’ve been tired of the attitude you conveyed being displayed publicly for about 3 weeeks, maybe longer.
Well, Halladay didn’t work. Maybe Holliday will. Some people listen to remember, some people listen to forget. Let’s go home, Pokie.
That’s what I’m looking for too, Ken.
Don’t know if it would make much of a difference at this point but it’s worth a shot. I mean, we’ve all read about Manuel having had a few meetings with the players and about a few more players-only meetings along the way. We’ve also read quotes from the players talking about the need to be careful not to press. Well none of that seems to be working too well. It seems to me that they are at the point (probably past the point) where some anger and pressing is in order. If they can’t find some motivation, some spark, some way to pull it together right now, this season will be lost.
Easier said than done I know, but we’ve been hearing for a while how once this guy and that guy gets back, how once we’re at full strength, we’ll be ready to make a run. Well everybody (except Utley of course) is back and we’re showing the exact opposite of being ready to make a run.
Actually, it has seemed to me like there hasn’t been a great deal of conversation about the injuries. I think I’ve read enough coments about the inconsistent play to lead me to believe that that is where the focus is. And while as a fan, I’m in no position to pass judgement on the heart and desire of these guys, I’d like to see some fire. Course we saw that from Ryan Madson, and the kick was wide left. So who knows. Honestly, even taking Utley’s lengthy slump out of the equation, if Werth was hitting .260 with RISP instead of .160, the Phils might be like a game back, if not ahead. It is a fine line between where we are and where we could be.
The pitching matchups for the Cardinl series are challenging. Our best, Hamels draws Wainright. That’s the Thursday afternoon getaway.
phillyfan and jjg-
well…my personal opinion is that you are both wrong! I think Phillyfan overvalues Howard and JJG undervalues him.
phillyfan-
Howard’s problem is OBP, which was discussed at length here last year, not BA. One way to bring that up to hit for a better average, sure. The single most valuable thing you can do as a batter is not make an out (this is a mathematical fact), which is why OBP is so important and why many think Howard is somewhat overrated.
And no, my comment about Howard coming around was not tongue in cheek. At the break, he was on pace for 32 HRs, which would be his career low by 13 (a 30% drop from last year). Considering he just signed an extension to keep him here for 6 more years, that would have been very concerning. If his power goes, he becomes very average, very fast.
Pointing out areas of improvement for a player does not make one a “hater.” I like Howard, and it’s clear that right now he’s our best hitter and deserves little-to-no blame for our current situation.
Spinoff of post #59: more PHILA/CHI, lest we forget - some big, some obscure:
Ed Bouchee, Richie Ashburn, Mel Roach, John Herrnstein, Ray Herbert, Jim Lemon (PH at end of his line), Darold Knowles, Oscar Gamble, Dick Selma, Joe Cowley, Jim Thome, Julio Franco (had a strong year w/Sox), Gavin Floyd; note – Johnny Callison played for Cubs too
Ollie Matson (Chi Cardinals), Mike Ditka (pretty fair tight end from Pitt; a Chuck Bednarik corollary/descendent), Jack Concannon (scramblin’ #3 from BC), Cyril Pinder (forefather of Po James), Mark Nordquist (o-lineman on white-helmeted Eags), Jim McMahon,
shy guy Buddy Ryan
Johnny “Red” Kerr (Bulls’ 1st head coach), Larry Costello, Kevin Loughery, Doug Collins, Scott Skiles, Guy Rodgers (Bulls’ 1st PG), Dennis Awtrey, Matt Guokas, Sedale Threatt, Neil Funk (radio-tv broadcaster), Toni Kukoc, Elton Brand, John Salmons
Lou Angotti (Flyers’ first captain), Reg Fleming (Flyers’ 2nd enforcer, following Forbes Kennedy), nifty centerman Andre Lacroix, Rick Foley (D), Wayne Hicks (early RW), Allan Stanley (storied defenseman who played his last season at age 42 w/Flyers), Rosaire Paiement (C; WHA Cougars), Doug Crossman (D), Behn Wilson (D, enforcer), Jeremy Roenick.
Aw, Pete, I hate to be wrong in the morning. Couldn’t you have waited?
2 of last 6 in Howard’s recent flurry have been BP swings with game sealed. 2 were Petunia-pounders at CBP. 2 impressed.
I don’t underrate RH. Long ball draws. I see him as a highly valuable commercial product for Monty & the Teflonics (thus, the new mindboggling contract) and as a sometimes scorching, sometimes
clueless slugger who displays undernourished defensive tendencies. He’s a first wallet but a second fiddler. Strikes me as content as long as he gets his.
I don’t see how I overrate Howard. Nobody is refuting that he will be a hall-of-famer. Nobody is refuting that he is not a great fielder (me included). I would like to see him walk more.
But at the heart of the issue is production. His job as a #4 hitter is the produce runs, and he measures with the all-time greats, including Babe Ruth, in the history of baseball for a pretty decent span now. Even if the 45/135 ends this year we may look back at the past 4 years and they will be seen as the ay people talk about Sandy Koufax’s 5 incredible years of pitching. Of course there are things he could do better - he is not some perfect lab creation by nVidia. Even AP is on record to smash his total singleseason stikeouts this year, maybe even approach 100.
Back to production, and how to measure it. If we would look back the past 4 years and at all the players that averaged 45/145 (oh there aren’t any), OK, how about 40/135 (oh there aren’t any), OK, how about 35/125 (Oh there aren’t any)……….OK, lets just stick to 30/100. Take those players and figure out the percentage of HR+RBIs that either brought their team within one run, tied, or put them ahead. Then multiply by a factor to account for their amount over 30/100. Howard would be right there and likely beat the competition. I remember reading an article in the DN two years ago that really opened my eyes about how much of Howard’s production is menaingfull production, that even my impress his haters.
I wonder how many HRs Richie Allen would’ve hit (relative to Ryan Howard) if Connie Mack Stadium’s LF line dimension wasn’t 334 with a 12 ft. high wall, and it wasn’t 420 to LC, and its CF wall wasn’t 447 ft. from home plate and the RF wall at 329 ft. down the line wasn’t 30 ft. high, and the top edge of the large Ballantine beer rightcenterfield scoreboard wasn’t 60 ft high with a Longines clocked perched even higher in the center of it, and the distance just to the right of the scoreboard wasn’t 400 ft. Safe to say, a few more.
And he probably would’ve been delighted to hit in CBP or another so configured:
CBP/CMS: LF 330 (334), LC 374 (420), CF 401 (447), RC 369 (400), RF 330 (329) .. and don’t forget to factor those walls and that scoreboard.
Correction: distance to LEFT of scoreboard (corner of scoreboard nearest centerfield) was 400 ft.
“ Nobody is refuting that he will be a hall-of-famer.”
Really? Nobody is refuting this? You are actually the first person I have heard say he’s a slam dunk.
He’s certainly got a chance, but he needs 5-6 more years of real good production and that is not a guarantee for any hitter.
His current all-time ranks are 209th in HR, 488th in RBI. With 3.5 more 40 / 135 years, he’ll be 70th in HR (363) and 162nd in RBI (1,133). He will also be turning 34 in the off-season. Historically, power hitters regress very quickly and to assume Howard will put this level of production up until he is 36 or 37 is just wishful thinking.
Two final things and I will drop it for now. I know many don’t value homers and RBI significantly. But part of my tongue in cheek above (OK, nobody did that) is that I think when someone outperforms all their peers by such a large margin in two categories, that garners special attention. something significant is going on there.
The other thing is you cannot discount iis his production was done at a championship level. This was not Andrew Blatch of the Wiz putting up crazy number for a horrible team for 3 weeks. Many of Howards most impressive stats were the 2nd half of the season against competition also vying for playoff position when it was most critical and teammates like Utley were fading. He helped make a team a champion. TO ME that MEANS those statistics must be meaningful or what use are statistics if they do not translate to winning. Winning should predominantly inform/provide meaning for statistics, not the other way around. What follows is that Howard’s fielding, while not anything better than passable, is not an impediment to winning.
JJG, it is well documented that Howard’s splits are about even home and away.
Or better yet, if he played in a bigger field his BA might be 20 points higher and have 20 more RBI per year. You just never know. He may have more homers because he isn’t trying to hit them. I have never heard any baseball geek suggest that Howard’s numbers are a product of CB. He is pretty much revered as the premeir run-producer in MLB.
Phillyfan, I see your ardor for Howard through many points made on his behalf. My last post stemmed from my preference for #15. Have seen both players play often. The post was more a suggestion to try to superimpose Allen’s hitting talent on present park dimensions and conditions rather than an intended knock on your rooting interest, #(what does he wear?).
jjg,
As my name suggests I am a phillyfan. My rooting somewhat outweighs my desire to dissect and analyze, which I do at work and home. I know Howard is far from perfect. My concern as a lifelong 45 year old phillyfan is that he simply is taken for granted and underappreciated.
You, of course, have your perogative to say he is overrated and/or selfish. The only problem I have is that there simply is nothing to back that up. Because he is not a great fielder doesn’t mean he is overrated, as noone has ever claimed he is a great fielder. To say he swings at too many balls doesn’t mean he is overrated because nobody ever claimed that his eye of the strikezone was a strength. I hear no baseball geek or GM or player indicate he is overrated in terms of what he brings to this team during his entire career.
And he has been the consummate teammate, unless you have evidence to the contrary. not once has he uttered a word in discord with his manger or a teammate, nor toward the fans. That alone should make us appreciate him in this day and age, when you think about the pressure he, as someone that the team so much depends on and the past criticsim of his strikeouts and BA, is under every year. Yet he delivers. And he IS in the process of striking out less and working on defense.
This upcoming series against the Cards is real interesting. The deck is really stacked against the Phils. Cards are streaking with 5 in a row and have a cumulative pitching ERA of 1.8 over that period. We have two guys starting, and a 3rd in Blanton, that seem best suited for TRiple A right now. With all that being said, this is the type of situation that the Phils have thrived on in the past. Somehow they would step up. It doesn’t look good and I will say “stepping up” means gaining a split in this instance. Winning 3 of 4 would be huge but a tall task for sure. I am going to say 2-2 and cross my fingers. Howard will have 3 more homers and minimum 7 RBI in the series, being back home and all. I will say WErth snaps out of it and hits 2 dingers, bats over 300 for the series, and makes a real contribution. PHils win the middle games with Blanton and Moyer, but niether get the win.