Ric Bucher put an interesting rumor out there today, one that has been thrown around by many a Sixers fan for some time now.
Andre Iguodala to the Warriors for Monta Ellis.
Here is the tale of the tape…
- Iguodala is 27 with 2 years, $28.2 million left on his deal, plus a player option for a 3rd year at $15.9 million
- Ellis will be 26 in October, with 2 years $22 million left on his deal, plus a player option for a 3rd year at $11 million
Here are each of our takes on a possible move…
Pete’s Take
Positives
- Scoring void? Solved. Late game scoring? Solved. If Ellis is anything, he’s a scorer, and a real good one.
- Here is a list of guards who averaged 24+ ppg on 45%+ shooting at age 25 or younger since 2000: Monta Ellis, Joe Johnson, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade and Vince Carter.
- He has consistently shot over 45% (47% for his career), and that’s with his tendency to shoot too many 3′s at an average % (33-36%).
- At 25, he’s not quite a finished product, and in Golden State, he has never played for anything but an run and gun style. If Doug Collins can get him to improve his defense and cut down on the 3-pointers, he could make the leap to a really, really good player.
- $6.2 million in savings over the next two years and $11.1 over the next 3 if they were to both take their player options.
Negatives
- Uhhhh… where does Evan Turner play? Cause Holiday and Ellis would be the backcourt. Can Turner play SF?
- If Ellis can’t improve his D, and won’t cut down on 3′s, he’s not a terribly well-rounded player. He plays over 40 minutes a game, which helps his rate stats, and his PER is good (18.69), but not great. In fact, it’s lower than Lou Williams, which makes me wonder if he is just a better scoring version of Lou? (Note: I don’t particularly like Lou…)
My first thought on this trade was “yes”, but now I’m leaning toward’s “no.” I think if you are going to trade Iggy, it needs to open up a natural spot for Turner, not block him. I would also like to see the trade be for a younger big man and maybe a pick or two.
If this trade was made, I would be hopeful that Ellis would benefit from Collins’ coaching and become a better all-around player. It’s certainly possible, and if that happened, the trade would probably be a net positive, but as is, I’d say it slightly favors Golden State.
Dannie’s Take
Quick opinion – I wouldn’t do this deal in isolation.
Monta Ellis doesn’t make the Sixers better, just different. They would have a true scorer. A guy that can get his own shot and can put up points (about as efficiently as Iguodala scores now just with more volume shot taking).
But defensively the team would be weakened substantially on the perimeter – and that has residual impact beyond the obvious. Without having any front court defense or shot blocking, Monta’s defensive ineptitude will only be magnified.
Based just on that I think at best you are breaking even.
Other Considerations
- Monta is cheaper and younger which helps the cap and gives the Sixers the ability to trade him much easier if this experiment didn’t work out
- Wouldn’t this relegates Turner to a back-up? I mean you could start Turner at three considering his good rebounding, but I don’t think that would hold up having to battle against small forwards.
- Would this stunt Jrue’s development? He would have the ball significantly less on offense.
- The Sixers must trade lou – MUST – if you do this trade.
- Would a move like this fill more seats and drum up interest in this franchise?
The unknown (kind of) is whether or not a change of scenery would get Monta to become a more well-rounded player? Specifically could Doug Collins get Ellis to play at least average defense? Unlikely in my book but worth considering. It’s not like Ellis doesn’t have the athletic capability to defend. But we’ve been saying that about Lou for how long now?
So to repeat, in isolation I wouldn’t, in the context of other moves (specifically acquiring a legit center who can defend) this deal becomes a maybe for me.
In my opinion the big deal that needs to be made is for front court help, preferably youthful front court help with an emphasis on defense. Swapping Iguodala for a better offensive/weaker defensive perimeter player is a lateral move that help the cap situation. That’s fine so long as you use the extra cash to improve the front court defense somehow.
What’s YOUR take?
Dannie – You make an interesting point about not doing this in isolation. I think for this trade to be a real good move for us, it needs to grow larger, specifically so that we can address our other big need: a defensive big. aka: Andris Biedrins. I’ve always liked him as a player, and think he’s pretty much a walking double double, a nice rebounder and pretty good shot blocker, isn’t a friend to mix it up in the paint, that sometimes shows nice flashes of being a capable and certainly no stiff on the offensive end.
Why has his production gone down the past two years? 1. Injuries, which he’s now fully recovered from. 2. Waning confidence. The latter G-State has sports psychologists and an entire team of people dedicated to getting his head back on his shoulders during this off season. I think this is going to be a huge bounce back year for Biedrins, he has a very reasonable contract ($9.5 million per) given his skill, and would plug up that giant gaping hole we have in the middle.
My suggested trade:
Sixers get – Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins
Golden State gets – Andre Iguodala, Lou Williams, Mareese Speights
What happens on our end:
-Evan Turner gets relegated to the bench…not a bad thing, IF we also move Lou Williams out of there. Turner gets the lion’s share of minutes (a regular, consistent, 25-27 mpg), to allow him to develop some confidence and regularity in his game. We can plug him into PG/SG/SF as needed.
-J. Meeks gets the leftover backcourt minutes.
-Biedrins gives us a huge defensive/rebounding boost…Hawes gets his proper role, a nice backup center, offering passing, jumpshot, size to clog up lane, and the occassional block.
-Thad Young gets the nod to start at SF. See what he can do, how his production is given a true 35 mpg.
-E. Brand still starting at PF, Nocioni filling in as main backup, giving some needed toughness and small ball lineup.
-#16 Draft pick + Battie fill out frontcourt roster.
Big hit on D for perimeter, but much improved frontcourt D, along with the offensive scoring M. Ellis brings.
***Also think it’s important to mention stats don’t tell the complete story with Monta. He has the swagger of a scorer, even with high shot volume. He’s a guy comfortable getting points when we would need it…and sometimes, even at a less efficient pace, that is a skill worth acquiring.
Dave T has a nice version of the trade there. Quite frankly, I would do the trade if and only if the Sixers get a Center with the defensive skills and perhaps a backup SF who can play solid defense (Battier). If the Sixers surround Ellis with defense, then this team could be a Chicago Bulls type of team in the future. Scorers do not grow on trees, but this team needs to stick to its roots on defense.
GO SIXERS!!
I would not make this move.
If we believe Jrue can end up being a top 6-7 PG (which I do), we do everything in our power to get him there while playing meaningful (playoff) games.
The Sixers like to run, but not in the same way the Warriors do. From what I’ve seen, which to be honest hasn’t been much, Ellis is the focal point of everything the Warriors do offensively.
I say we continue to grow defensively with Iguodala, see the strides our young players like Jrue make, and then focus on putting game changing players along side of him once Andre’s contract runs out.
In two years I want the Sixers to:
1. Know EXACTLY what we have in Jrue, Thad, and Turner.
2. Know what type of future Brand and Andre have with this organization.
3. Have the freedom cap/trade wise to bring in impact players who can play alongside our younger pieces.
As you can see, I’m putting a lot of faith and stock into Jrue Holiday’s future with this team. Am I putting too much? Maybe. But I don’t want to run the RISK of slowing down his progress by making a move that doesn’t make us THAT much better in the first place.
Andre Iguodala > Monta Ellis with our roster looking the way it does now.
(All of this is assuming the deal is straight up Iggy for Monta).
There is no future with Ai and Brand on this team. The two only get older and their contracts continue to increase. The ceiling has been met by both those players. EB having his best season in years, when does he begin to really decline? I would do this deal in a heartbeat. But again I would think BIG and try to add some front court help along with the deal. DC loves Lou Williams. So not sure he’s so easily added to a deal involving Iggy. The players like Lou, that means something.
In addition to my recent post about trades. I would also consider trading for Anthony Randolph on the Timberwolves. Young, athletic and a shot blocker. He’s not a true center but adding a big in the draft with the Iggy/Ellis deal would drastically improve the front court. Trade Speights and a 2nd round for A Randolph and a conditional pick. I’d do that as well.
RRose – Speights doesn’t have good value around the league. He’s an underachieving big man that is a black hole on offense, and strays to shoot 15-18 footers too much instead of posting up down low, that also doesn’t play a lick of defense. I still think he has a lot of talent, and with time, effort, the right coach and practice could put it together and become a rotation type player in the league, but that’s a lot of if’s.
T-Wolves would (rightfully) want more in a trade for Anthony Randolph, who while also inconsistent, has shown flashes of brilliance, and is one of the most unique young players in the league.
Lou Williams – If we’re going to move him, it has to be to a team that desperately needs a scoring punch, and can be ok with his fucking horrendous shot selection and lack of any sense of decision making. The T-Wolves certainly fit that bill, as they have had a gaping hole at their SG spot really since Sprewell left town. If Golden State traded Monta, they’d be desperate for scoring. New Orleans needs scorers. Cleveland.
Dave T. For some reason when I listen or watch games that other commentators are doing whenever Speights is in the game he gets love. Just like Willie Green used to get when he was a Sixer. Other teams seemed to appreciate their talents. I listened to the Knicks and Walt Frazier would go on and on about Green. So maybe its what we see that other teams don’t. A big who is capable of shooting from the outside has to have some value. Just not as a Sixer. While teams are scouring the D League for players he has to have more worth than that.
I’m going to hold off hope he does and brings back some fruit from his somewhat labor. Please
RRose – I know what you mean; a similar thing happens with Lou Williams. Opposing team’s announcers gush over his ability, and a lot of ESPN analysts are big Lou-fanboys. Pretty shocking given the close up look we get of him all year long.
I would not. I don’t think he’d fit on a Collins team on either end if the floor, plus he’d give back any added offense on the other end.
Do it if and only if the Sixers get some defensive players to surround Ellis. Other than that, this team can still improve and reach 50 wins even without the move. Just avoid the mental collapses and play better in close games/OT.
It took me a while to make my mind up about this trade, but in the end I think the Sixers should do this trade. We haven’t had top-flight NBA talent here in a while and it would be nice to have it back. Every player since Iverson has been 2nd-tier or worse at everything, even Andre Miller’s PG skills. Taking everything into account, I don’t know if we’re a better team with Monta instead of Andre, but if this team stays the way it is I think we’re 1st round and out again next year, even with the guy we add through the draft. So , to me, this trade opens up the possiblitiy of bettering the team we’d have next year, because I don’t think it will happen through player development.
I read this interview with that Greek guy who gambles on NBA games and wins, Haralabos Voulgaris, and he discussed something that stuck with me:
“I think a lot of coaches make decisions based on trying to keep their jobs.” There might be an optimal way to play a game that allows for a higher win percentage but a larger margin of defeat when you lose, he explains. Most coaches will decide they’d rather win less often if it means that when they lose they are getting blown out less often, too.
Does that sound like Iguodala basketball, the part about winning less and losing without getting blown out? Iguodala does such a good job of keeping us in games because of his great all-around ability, but could we win more with a less balanced, more volatile player that has higher ups and downs, like Allen Iverson? I bet some people wouldn’t make an Iguodala for 2001 Iverson trade (what about Jrue’s development, you can’t do that).
The advanced stats say that Iverson was overrated, but when we had him, didn’t it always feel like we had a chance in the playoffs? And he came through – even though he was supposedly overrated and his teams shouldn’t have won according to the numbers, the fact is they did win, and I think Monta can do that for us even though all the numbers say he’s not as good a basketball player as Iguodala. Another “overrated” basketball player example: Joe Johnson has more playoff and series wins than Iguodala.
And unlike those Iverson teams, Monta would have a great groups of strong role players around him: Jrue as the 2nd banana, Evan Turner as the 3rd, Meeks as the shooter, Spencer Hawes as the useless white guy center (well, I guess Geiger was ok), off the bench scoring punch from Lou and Thad, a veteran former All-Star (deservedly so) in Elton Brand. We just need to hit a double or better with the draft pick this year (Chris Singleton?) and I think we’re better than what the team would be with Iguodala.
ESPN reporting Iggy-for-Kaman talks.
Not sure how quick I’d want to jump into bed with another injury plagued Clipper cast off. Does fill a position of need. If we’re going to move Iguodala it’d be nice to get a top-10 center.
Forgot the link: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=6641932
Yuck.
But at least two positives:
1) Now there’s a bidding war for Iguodala, that can only be good
2) We can consider swingmen in the draft now (Jordan Hamilton is my preference, for now)
Zack – Totally agree on Jordan Hamilton being the perfect pick for us if we traded Iguodala. Think he’s being undersold in his year’s draft, and that a lot of improvement is in store for him at the NBA level with summer-work on his game the next few years.
Well, one thing is for sure. Andre Iguodala is definitely being shopped and it better be for something quality worthy. I hope the Iguodala for Gay deal comes to life shortly.
Iguodala for Ben Bernanke, Anthony Weiner and a scandal to be named later.
Chris Kaman = Turning 30 soon. Coming off injury. Last thing we need is another Clippers big man coming back from injury. I actually really like his game when healthy, but given the youth movement we’re in, adding an older vet like Kaman…while interesting…he isn’t good enough to help put us over the top, and while a very good rebounder and pretty good shot blocker, and obvious offensive skill, still wouldn’t give us the kind of defense we need in the middle. Would just be an odd fit given the direction we’d be trying to go to (aka: build a team that can compete in the East).
De’Andre Jordan is the guy we should be trying to pry away from the Clippers. I’d trade Iguodala for an up and coming defensive minded Center in a freaking heartbeat. It would be VERY hard for the Clippers to want to part with a young/athletic/shot blocking/rebounding type like De’Andre…who wouldn’t want a talent like that. But given Iguodala’s veteran experience, athleticism, defense, and immense upgrade he’d give them at SG (plus Iguodala would be in his ideal role…3rd banana (Blake 1, E Gordon 2, Iggy 3) the Clippers should at least pause to look at that deal. To make salaries work, we’d have to take on one of their unwanted contracts…but even then, doubt the Clippers would let De’Andre go.
…but if we aren’t at least EXPLORING getting Jordan from the Clips, Stefanski should be slapped.
Is it Stefanski or Rod Thorn in charge of this kind of stuff anymore? I don’t even know.
The reason I don’t know is because absolutely nothing has happened since Thorn came on board. NOTHING.
He’s only had 10 months to see, cogitate, conclude and act. And Stefanski keeps pullin’ him to Chili’s for the early bird special. The irony is, he was born in PRINCETON, West Virginia.
No one has mentioned that Kamen’s contract only has 1 year, while Iggy’s has 3 with a player option for a 4th right? Even if Kamen can’t stay healthy the deal helps us get to the future faster from a cap standpoint. What if the Clippers sweetened the deal by throwing in Al-Farouq Aminu and Randy Foye? Aminu gives us a young athletic SF with a high ceiling but still needs polishing. Bring Foye back to Philadelphia where he’ll have Jay Wright back in his ear to get in shape and Collins will get Foye to start playing defense again. People forget how good he was in both college and his time starting for the Timberwolves.
I’d love this deal. It would take some mixing and matching to get the money to work, but I’d really like to see Aminu in Philly.
Disagree about Aminu. I think he’s the classic all athlete, no real bball game player that’s still resting on how high he was ranked as a high school player, and a mediocre showing at Wake, with people clamoring about his “potential”.
When watching him actually play on an NBA court, he’s showed me three things:
-Out of control, sloppy play
-Horrendous shot selection
-Zilch…and I mean zero…basketball IQ.
Gerald Green pt. II.
Sweetener in a Clippers deal – Craig Smith. Undersized bulldozer of a PF, that is just flat out a monster player to have off the bench when healthy. He’s a legit low post/block option in limited spurts, and plays with no hesitation or intimidation of opposing defenses. Real underrated player that would bolster our frontcourt.
Kamen, career: ~ 12 & 8 in 30 mpg
Hawes, career: ~ 8.5 & 5.5 in 22 mpg
I hope they stay away from Kamen. Doubt Clips would give up a young long, jumpin’ jack like Jordan.
I agree jjg. At one point I was in love of idea Kaman would bring. But he’s so often injured its not a road I’d want the Sixers to travel. He’s talented but his career has been made up of one All star like performance. I’ll pass. I’m more interested in them drafting the 7 ft PF from overseas. Description of his game (not any video I’ve seen) seems like a player.
Monta? Love a guy with his “microwave” ability, but don’t know anything of his “team” ability. Aside from PPG it seems, from a distance, you’d acquire intangible “swag” … needed, especially at Sixers’ O end. Defensive abilities of Iguodala would be missed but not as much as some presume, my guess, as good coaches and raw talent fill vacuums. Am on see-saw of this proposed deal, leaning ’do it’ if a legit step-in big can’t be had.
The Kaman part of that deal would be an expiring contract, not a basketball move.
Makes some sense then, but it would be hard to muster ticket buying enthusiam to see the Caucasian Twin Towers, even if just for a year. Shades of Mark McNamara & Tim McCormick.
I’d expect we’d get Aminu with Kaman to provide a possible long term replacement for Iggy.