Well, we have the answer to the question “How much does Ryan Howard think he is worth this year?” And the answer is: $18 million dollars.
In what I can only describe as an absurd number, Howard and his agent (and his dad?) are asking for an $8 million dollar raise from their record-setting $10 million salary last season. The Phillies are offering $14 million.
To put the craziness of this request in perspective…
- The most any player got last year with 3 years of service was Justin Morneau (who, by the way, I would take over Howard), who got $7.4 million. That’s less than the raise that Howard is requesting.
- In Cole Hamels contract, the year that would coincide with Howard’s current situation will make him $6.65 million.
- Chase Utley, at this point in his career, requested $6.7 million.
- Miguel Cabrera, after 4 years of service, got $11 million from the Tigers, or 61% of what Howard wants.
If Howard were to win, you have to think he would go for the same raise the next 2 years, taking him to $26 million and $34 million respectively. That’s insane, and he (or any player, for that matter) doesn’t deserve it.
I’m firmly in the Phillies corner on this one. I thought Howard might request $15 million, but $18 is over the top for this point in his career.
I also can’t imagine Howard winning. MLB would be setting a ridiculous precedent here, and small market teams would have to start trading away their best players 3-4 years before they even reach free agency.
If Howard loses, he’d better keep his mouth shut, or else his relationship with the team and the city will spiral downhill very quickly.
also…
Blanton agreed to 1 year, $5.475 mill
Victorino agreed to 1 year, $3.125 mill.
Both are fair deals given their service time. Just Howard, Durbin and Werth.
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{ 19 comments… read them below or add one }
Trade him now
George: trade?? like that’ll be easy. dont get me wrong many teams want Ryan Howard but with the new value he puts on himself only the big Yankees (CC spree done), Mets (x-factor but unlikely), BoSox & Angel would be in play. all other teams will be cringing just as much as we are on his exhorbitant demands. they dont wanna pay him the moon in arbitration ($10 plus) and they know they have have to throw him A-Rod money to sign him long term.
Pete: Howard’s best fit is in Philadelphia where he can hide his defensive weakness and Ks, and add the firpower behind our quick strike offense. Mourneau is a more solid player but Howard is a gamble that punishes pitchers 1 out of 3. i like that. hopefully the arbitration hearing will not give him that laugher. then we can continue to rent him till his FA year. i hope. but he is clearing his way outta philly FAST. this is ridiculous. i still like him though.
It is so sad that Howard is the ONLY player on the team that is selfish. Every other player is reasonable, even the other 3 arbitrations. All the team wants to win now. I think if we could find a team that wants him and we can get a fair trade, we definitely should trade him (how about Kansas City or some other city with NO hope to win)? That would be justice.
His salary has gone from $355k in 06, to $900k in 07, $10m in 08, and now he wants $18m? Those are some nice raises. It appears as though the others who have signed recently have taken fair, but not outrageous deals. Doesn’t he realize that this kind of request will not sit well with ownership, fans or teammates. It will end up being a situation where you win the battle but lose the war. I agree with George above. Don’t break the bank for one player. Think about how much we could go out and get with $18m. We might as well start getting used to the idea that Howard will not be a Phillie for much longer. Some team will pay him the A-rod money he wants and it will set their franchise back for years to come. Ask the Rangers how that feels. I just hope that team isn’t our World F-in Champions. (Sorry, couldn’t resist.)
I don’t think we should trade him now, but I imagine we will before he starts making $25 mill +, if that is where this is headed.
Agree with everyone here. Howard is not worth A-Rod money mostly because nobody, including A-Rod, is worth A-Rod money. There is no way the Phils will commit that much to one guy, nor should they. As such, his days in Philly are most certainly numbered.
Jkay makes a great point. Since Howard’s salary demands are out in the open, everyone knows what they will be in for should they acquire him. That should scare off a whole bunch of potential suitors as well as limit what we would get in return in any trade.
Unless we get a really good offer, I say we should keep him until he hits free agency. That means we will have him for 3 years, which just so happens to coincide with the “window of opportunity” we have with our core group. We just signed Lidge for 3 years. We also signed Madson for 3 years. We just signed Ibanez for 3 years. Rollins is under contract for….anybody?……you guessed it, 3 more years. OK, enough. You get the point.
With that in mind, keeping Howard for 3 years and then letting him walk isn’t such a bad thing. He is locked into arbitration and cannot go anywhere. The only way he gets more money is by continuing to produce. That means he earns, and we pay, based on his production. Also, this is on a year by year basis. That means he’s got to stay on top of his game each and every year. There will be no guaranteed raises in each subsequent year as there would be with a long term contract. On top of that, he will need to produce in his final year as well in order to secure the mega deal he is striving for when he hits free agency.
We really can’t lose over the next 3 years since his pay will be commensurate with his production. Also, no matter how disgruntled he becomes with the organization, he must produce MVP-type numbers in order to get the money he is looking for.
It sure will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 3 years. Who will blink first? Will either side blink at all? Assuming Howard stays for his 3 remaining arbitration years, and continues to produce, we will have done very well. Think about it. At a minimum, we will have gotten a mountain of offensive production, a ROY season, an MVP season, and a world championship in 6+ seasons, all at market rates. I’ll take that and wish him well for whatever remains of the rest of his career, thank you very much.
The only way Howard can expect to get $18-$20+ mil is if his consistency as a hitter increases. He needs to learn to lay off the outside off speed stuff and slap the ball to the left side of the infield Ichiro style. This would force defenses to have to play him honestly and those hard ground balls to the right side would turn into base hits instead of hard hit ground outs. Sure when he gets a hold of the ball its goes far and fast, but he needs to learn to be selective and get a better eye for balls and strikes. Maybe this will come in time, and maybe it won’t. If it doesn’t he’ll never be one of the best players in the game, maybe one of the best HR hitters, but thats about it.
Proves he can bend at the waist to pick something up if he sets his mind to it.
He is whiffing on public relations.
J Dubbz…The thought of Howard slapping the ball to the left side, a la Ichiro, conjured up quite the image in my mind, LOL! I do not see it happening, not even a little bit, however.
It is obvious that Howard already thinks he is one of the best players in the game. The fact that, since he has entered the league, nobody has more HR or RBI than him stands as evidence. He also won a record $10 mil arbitration award last year, so he’s getting paid as one of the best in the game at this stage. I’m sure this provides an ample amount of justification, at least in his mind.
I’m thinking that, other than cutting down on his strikeouts (and he’s probably iffy on this as well), Howard really doesn’t feel compelled to improve his game a whole lot. I’m not saying that he doesn’t want to improve at all. I know he practices and I’m sure he’d like to improve in some areas. I just get the feeling that he doesn’t think he needs to improve in order to be considered one of the best in the game. I think he believes, when everything is taken into consideration, that very few players in the league equal or surpass what he brings to a team.
On a side note, I read this in Sam Donnellon’s article today:
“You try to make intelligent decisions about making your team as good as it can be and as versatile as it can be,” general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. was saying at a Phillies luncheon yesterday. “You try to keep your mind open and try to figure out what is best for the club. If having Ibanez rather than Pat Burrell is better for the club, then that’s the decision we’ve made.”
Amaro went on to point out that Burrell had become a limited fielder, forcing the team to lose his bat late in games. But there’s no denying the sea change here, that this is an organization that, rather than squirreling away the gold coins that came their way from a world championship, is willing to pay to get another one.
“Will that come to fruition?” Amaro asked rhetorically. “I don’t know. But we felt overall that we’re going to be better with Ibanez on the club. The economics and a lot of things play into that, but that’s how we assessed it.”
This is exactly why we need that Ibanez-Burrell comparison meter, Pete.
bski Psychobabble. The only thing you can be sure of that passes through his mind is “I want more.”
jjg: about Howard or Amaro?
so far i like the way he’s knocking off our arbitration eligible players off the to-do list.
unfortunate Howard feels this way; he has every right to think so considering the stats. Looking back at Cole Hamels’ situation and the maturity with which he handled it coming off a WS MVP performance, I begin to appreciate him more.
I know he made $10mil last year which was a record in arb for a player in that stage or his career, but is he gonna be worth the $20-$30mil (A-Rod money) in 3 years? I think no unless he improves on his faults. He may think he is one of the best and obvi so do other people because he finished 2nd in MVP voting in a season that I feel didn’t warrant that kind of acclaim. His numbers were pretty darn good as far as HR and RBIs go, but his performance on a day to day basis when watching every game lacked the MVP domination IMO. How many times have you seen Howard chase the slider that is a foot off the plate outside, when you knew that pitch was coming? Until he can “fix” this problem, I don’t think he is one of the best in the league and his pay check should not be either.
jkay To clear confusion, Howard (between post #10 arrived with me unaware). My point: We have no insight on how he thinks or feels, only reported info on what he, agent and team of lawyers request of Phillies financially. The rest is conjecture or, in some cases, wishful thinking.
Amaro’s signings to date seem sensible and orderly. Cole proved himself as ‘ace’ in playoffs. Madsen was terrific in 2nd half last year, still wonder about him repeating though.
Just found this on mlbtraderumors.com:
Jayson Werth has agreed to a 2-year deal for around $9 million.
wow – thats a great deal for Werth. Michael Taylor should be ready in 2 years, and Dom Brown in 3 when Ibanez is gone.
You know, there is a possible plan B out there right now. Adam Dunn remains unsigned. I saw on mlbtraderumors.com that Dunn is looking for 4 years, $56 mil (which is the same $14 mil we are offering Howard in arbitration right now, an amount that will no doubt climb each year after this), but it is believed that he will get a max of $5 mil per season.
I know there is a bit of a drop off from Howard to Dunn, but not as much as you’d think and certainly not enough to warrant paying Howard a significant amount more. Here are their numbers from 2008 (Howard/Dunn): Games (162/158), AB (610/517), Runs (105/79), Hits (153/122), 2b (26/23), 3b (4/0), HR (48/40), RBI (146/100), BB (81/122), SO (199/164), BA (.251/.236), OBP (.339/.386), OPS (.543/.513), IBB (17/13), GIDP (11/7).
Age is not a factor, as Dunn is 10 days younger than Howard. The money we save by signing Dunn can then be used to address other needs. Also, signing Dunn would achieve the “cost certainty” that Proefrock stated as a priority.
If Dunn is receptive to coming here and we could get a good deal for Howard right now, I’d seriously think about making this move.
Gotta give kudos to Ruben for getting these pieces to the puzzle signed for very reasonable deals. The trend is holding true to our window of opportunity here for the next 3 years. After that, I am afraid to see what happens.
I found a very good analysis of Howard’s arbitration case (both for and against) on dugoutcentral.com. It really ends up being a referendum on Howard himself, making you wonder whether he really gives us what we think he does, if we are placing too high a value on what he really gives us, and if we should even be thinking about trying to keep him.
It’s definitely worth a read, but I’ll post the conclusion for those who don’t want to bother with the whole article.
Conclusion:
Howard is a darn good hitter, and there is no denying his outstanding raw power. He has been tremendously overrated, however. His agents are asking for Pujols/Alex Rodriguez compensation for their client, which is absurd. He could probably get a similar figure in free agency, but he is still under team control. During escalating arbitration years, a player will receive a greater percentage of their actual market value, but the big first baseman is pushing the envelope too far. Even if Howard does live up to projections (and he should improve in 2009, falling in line with his ’07 and ’08 levels), he would not merit enough to make close to his real value at this stage of his career.
The Phillies are walking a fine line here. Obviously, they do not want to insult a player like Howard, who is arguably the face of the franchise. They should not back down, though, as their initial offer was more than reasonable. It is unlikely that the two sides will settle on a middle point near $16M, but if the Phils lose, this process could get out of hand in the future, setting a bad precedent. The year-to-year game will continue to free agency, but it might be in the Phillies’ best interest to deal when his perceived trade value is at its peak, assuming there will be enough interested suitors that can afford his salary. Odds are, he is long gone once he becomes a free agent in 2011, anyway. In all honesty, though, that might not be such a bad thing.
It is fun to watch Howard hit all of those long moon shots into the night, but he is already 28. By the time free agency does come around, he will be looking for big-time dollars that he will probably not end up earning, with old-player skills and power that could decline quickly as he gets up there in age. In arbitration, he certainly has a chance to win next month, given the common arbitrators’ love of home runs and other traditional counting stats. There are clearly some major flaws in his overall skill set, though, that need to be addressed. So, no, he does not deserve that much at this stage of his career. A settlement between $15-16-million would be ideal.