It’s definitely worth a read, but I’ll post the conclusion for those who don’t want to bother with the whole article.

Conclusion:
Howard is a darn good hitter, and there is no denying his outstanding raw power. He has been tremendously overrated, however. His agents are asking for Pujols/Alex Rodriguez compensation for their client, which is absurd. He could probably get a similar figure in free agency, but he is still under team control. During escalating arbitration years, a player will receive a greater percentage of their actual market value, but the big first baseman is pushing the envelope too far. Even if Howard does live up to projections (and he should improve in 2009, falling in line with his ’07 and ’08 levels), he would not merit enough to make close to his real value at this stage of his career.
The Phillies are walking a fine line here. Obviously, they do not want to insult a player like Howard, who is arguably the face of the franchise. They should not back down, though, as their initial offer was more than reasonable. It is unlikely that the two sides will settle on a middle point near $16M, but if the Phils lose, this process could get out of hand in the future, setting a bad precedent. The year-to-year game will continue to free agency, but it might be in the Phillies’ best interest to deal when his perceived trade value is at its peak, assuming there will be enough interested suitors that can afford his salary. Odds are, he is long gone once he becomes a free agent in 2011, anyway. In all honesty, though, that might not be such a bad thing.
It is fun to watch Howard hit all of those long moon shots into the night, but he is already 28. By the time free agency does come around, he will be looking for big-time dollars that he will probably not end up earning, with old-player skills and power that could decline quickly as he gets up there in age. In arbitration, he certainly has a chance to win next month, given the common arbitrators’ love of home runs and other traditional counting stats. There are clearly some major flaws in his overall skill set, though, that need to be addressed. So, no, he does not deserve that much at this stage of his career. A settlement between $15-16-million would be ideal.

I know there is a bit of a drop off from Howard to Dunn, but not as much as you’d think and certainly not enough to warrant paying Howard a significant amount more.  Here are their numbers from 2008 (Howard/Dunn):  Games (162/158), AB (610/517), Runs (105/79), Hits (153/122), 2b (26/23), 3b (4/0), HR (48/40), RBI (146/100), BB (81/122), SO (199/164), BA (.251/.236), OBP (.339/.386), OPS (.543/.513), IBB (17/13), GIDP (11/7).

Age is not a factor, as Dunn is 10 days younger than Howard.  The money we save by signing Dunn can then be used to address other needs.  Also, signing Dunn would achieve the “cost certainty” that Proefrock stated as a priority.

If Dunn is receptive to coming here and we could get a good deal for Howard right now, I’d seriously think about making this move.

Jayson Werth has agreed to a 2-year deal for around $9 million.

Amaro’s signings to date seem sensible and orderly.  Cole proved himself as ‘ace’ in playoffs.  Madsen was terrific in 2nd half last year, still wonder about him repeating though.

so far i like the way he’s knocking off our arbitration eligible players off the to-do list.

unfortunate Howard feels this way; he has every right to think so considering the stats. Looking back at Cole Hamels’ situation and the maturity with which he handled it coming off a WS MVP performance, I begin to appreciate him more.

“You try to make intelligent decisions about making your team as good as it can be and as versatile as it can be,” general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. was saying at a Phillies luncheon yesterday. “You try to keep your mind open and try to figure out what is best for the club. If having Ibanez rather than Pat Burrell is better for the club, then that’s the decision we’ve made.”
Amaro went on to point out that Burrell had become a limited fielder, forcing the team to lose his bat late in games. But there’s no denying the sea change here, that this is an organization that, rather than squirreling away the gold coins that came their way from a world championship, is willing to pay to get another one.
“Will that come to fruition?” Amaro asked rhetorically. “I don’t know. But we felt overall that we’re going to be better with Ibanez on the club. The economics and a lot of things play into that, but that’s how we assessed it.”
This is exactly why we need that Ibanez-Burrell comparison meter, Pete.