The Phillies need another starting pitcher. This past 9-game stretch, where we’ve gone 3-6 against 3 of top teams in the MLB, has shown that come playoff time, you cannot rely on a streaky offense and one good pitcher to win you 7-game series. Up until yesterday, I figured that the starter we need could either come from within the organization (i.e. Brett Myers pulling a Gavin Floyd and finally pitching to his potential 6 years after the fact) or from a low-cost starter outside the organization (Randy Wolf, Dave Bush etc…). But then, I read this in Jayson Stark’s Rumblings and Grumblings:
• Phretting in Philly: With the help of a number of clubs that have spoken with the Phillies, we’ve assembled this shopping list of starting pitchers it appears they’ve at least kicked tires on: Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Bronson Arroyo and (surprisingly) Jarrod Washburn. Bedard just hit the market, so you can add his name any minute now.
But those same clubs say the Phillies might have the hardest decisions to make of just about any team with win-the-World Series upside. If they go for it now — and decimate their still-thin system to deal for a big-name rent-a-pitcher like Sabathia or Burnett — this might be the only year they’d be capable of contending.
To make a trade like that, they’d probably have to give up both of their two most advanced starting-pitching prospects, Carlos Carrasco and Antonio Bastardo. So if they lose Brad Lidge and their rent-a-starter to free agency, and Jamie Moyer retires, Brett Myers doesn’t rebound and Adam Eaton’s first half turns out to be a mirage, the Phillies’ pitching staff next year would essentially consist of Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, an uncertain Myers and seven question marks.
“So that’s a tough call,” said one NL executive. “Do you say, ‘Go for it, and the hell with next year’? Or do you think big picture, but maybe not have enough [pitching] to win this year? It’s a scary choice to have to make.”
Scary choice indeed. Personally, given the Phillies history, I was shocked they are interested in Sabathia and/or Bedard. So here is the question – do you make either of these trades:
- Carlos Carrasco and Antonio Bastardo for C.C. Sabathia with the disclaimer that C.C. will NOT re-sign with the Phillies
- Carlos Carrasco, Antonio Bastardo and Michael Taylor for Eric Bedard with the disclaimer that you get Bedard for 2009 as well before he becomes a free agent
My personal opinion? I might make the Bedard deal because we get him for a year and a half and if we do something crazy like win a World Series, our budget might go up enough we could re-sign him. I wouldn’t do the Sabathia deal, because there is no way we could re-sign him and I don’t think you should ever give up 2 quality pitching prospects for a rental (see Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano trade).
So what do you do? Do you go for it, assuming that you only have one or two chances with Utley, Howard and Rollins in their primes? Or, do you keep hold of your prospects with the hopes that the team will stay competitive for years to come though maybe not as good as this team.
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{ 19 comments… read them below or add one }
Even with what we’ve got(Utley, Rollins, Howard, Hamels) we’re still not good enough to win the world series. We have been good for a while now(only one losing season in the last seven years) but have yet to win 90 games. Also, to be realistic, without the major collapse by the Mets, we don’t win the division or make the playoffs last year either. If we decide to hold on to our pitching prospects, they better make major contributions starting next year. If that is the case, I’m ok with waiting one year for them and staying with what we have now. If the Phils think it is going to take longer for them to make the majors or that they aren’t going to be top of the rotation starters, then I’d rather move a couple of them now.
By holding on to our prospects, chances are that we’ll stay where we are, which is in the good but not great category. If our goal is truly to win a championship, I vote for making a trade to pick up a top of the rotation starter now. I believe we’re about 80% of the way there and we only have a small window of a couple years to really make a run at it before we start losing what we have.
Of the possibilities listed, I would go for Bedard because he would be more than a half-year rental for us. I know some will say that bringing another leftie to CBP is a mistake. Teams will load their lineup with right handed bats, which is trouble in our park. I don’t know. It seems like our opponents’ good left handed pitchers do alright against us. I’m hoping we can turn the tables on our opponents. Maybe we can shut down their dangerous left handed bats and turn their switch hitters around to their weaker side.
I’m just glad I don’t have my neck on the line for this decision.
The 2004 Cardinals had a situation like this a couple years ago. They decided to give up Dan Haren, Daric Barton, and Kiko Calero for Mark Mulder. Mulder helped the Cards get to the World Series, but injuries have limited him since. After a couple years making deals like this, the Cardinals have been trying to rebuild their minor league system the past two years.
Oddly, the Cardinals’ deal to “win now” didn’t pay off in 2004 when they were the best team in the majors, but somehow they won it all in 2006 when they had the worst record amongst playoff teams.
I guess what we can take from this is that a trade for a big time pitcher can advance you deeper in the playoffs, but it’s no guarantee to win it all against a hotter team. What you really have to ask yourself is whether you trust your organization to continue drafting and developing young talent. The Diamondbacks got rid of Uggla and Quentin and still have a very good team.
In my opinion, the answer is to ask for a 72 hour period to negotiate a contract extension with C.C., but it doesn’t sound as if the Indians are keen on that.
I say no go on Bedard. This cat didnt make it in Baltimore cause he didnt like all the media focus on him (and the media is not real focused on the O’s there), then he is not making it in Seattle because they say he seems aloof. He feels the media is on him too much there(and there is no media pressure there). Plus is it really worried about fan reaction. Basically he is a recipe for disaster in Philly. Look the guy has talent, but he is meant to play in a city like St Louis were they just love everbody.
PETE: I meant to ask before. If we definitely would re-sign Sabathia, he would be your first choice? If the Phils choose not to re-sign Burrell, that frees up a chunk. Thome is off the books after this year. That’s still not enough to get the job done? Even with that we still need to come up with more and you don’t think ownership will go over budget?
bski, what did I say? The Angels are very good in the regular season, I’m not surprised by this sweep at all (but I would love them in the world series, those chokers). It’s not the end of the world, and I hope the Phillies don’t springboard off our this recent bad stretch into full-on trading mode. The stocks of our guys are really low right now, we should wait until we go on a decent run before unloading anyone, we’ll get more in return. But the problem with that is, when we do start playing well again, people will stamp that as a “turnaround” and they’ll forget all about how we stunk against the Sox and Angels.
Up and down their rosters, the Rangers and A’s aren’t as good as the Angels and Boston, we should look better against them.
I read Baseball Prospectus (I think that was it) and it said that 2007 was probably the best you could’ve gotten from J-Roll, and as soon as I read that I thought, “If that’s the likely outcome then, why not trade him in the offseason?”
ZACK: No, it’s not the end of the world. It is pretty damning proof that we are not a championship caliber club, however. Like I said last week, we are good but not great. The “problem” is that we’ve been good for several years now, but not good enough to take the next step.
Ever since way back in 2001, we have seen the same thing year after year. Only the players, coaches, and GM’s have changed. We have had several home stands
like the 8-2 we had a couple weeks ago(We actually had a 12-1 home stand, I think in ‘05). We have also had several home stands like the 1-5 we just put up(we had a 1-9 home stand in August, 2004). We have had great road trips and poor ones. We have had stretches where the pitching was great and others where it was poor. Same for the offense. Just like this year, we have gotten off to good starts in April and May before. For four years consecutive years prior to this one we have gotten off to terrible starts. We have made several second half runs only to come up a bit short(except for last year). The point of this little ramble is to say that, unless there is a major addition that really vaults this team into the great category, we are going to get the same results this year as we have for the last seven. We will stay in the hunt and possibly make the playoffs, but that is about all we can expect. I hate to be pessimistic but we are just not good enough to beat good teams and good pitchers consistently. Until that happens, we are not going anywhere.
I don’t envy the front office having to decide what to do. At first, it sounds ridiculous to suggest blowing up the team or trading a core player like Rollins. We definitely have the nucleus in place and it is difficult to break that up because we’re not that far away. I can’t help thinking, however, that it might be worth a shot because we have been treading water for years with no end in sight. Maybe we really do need a Carter/Alomar for McGriff/Fernandez type of trade to remake the team in some way and get us where we want to be. I mean, we’ve been tinkering for years in the hope that we would hit on the right combination but it hasn’t happened yet. Unless we move one of our major players, I don’t see us getting one in return.
There are many reasons why I don’t think anything like that will happen. I’m expecting a couple mid-level pickups at best. They are safer, less costly, and what the Phils have been doing in mid-season for years. We just have to hope it’s enough, like we do every year.
bski, quick note: I’ve been reading the Zo Zone… I hope you can ignore some of those posters, it’s easier to throw around crass, lowest-common-denominator insults than it is to engage in thoughtful discussion.
However, I will mention why I don’t like this other Sixers blog called depressedfan.com. 1) The guy is a Yankee fan. 2) I can’t pinpoint exactly how he does it, but he really doesn’t leave much room for debating topics, he responds to you like he’s a radio show host, like he knows better than you, like we should turn to him for wisdom, it’s annoying. Maybe that’s how some Zo Zone people feel about your posting, but I personally don’t.
ZACK: Thanks for the support. Sometimes I can get a bit carried away because I am passionate about Philly sports but I never thought I was shoving my views down everyone else’s throat. I’m glad you don’t see it that way. I’m the same as I was on Deep Sixer, yet I never got anything resembling negativity over there.
I told you there are a bunch of chuckleheads on the Zo Zone. I wasn’t even talking directly to the the ones that were hammering me. Why it bothers them for me to try and keep a discussion going with someone is beyond me. I mean, they’re more than welcome to join in. If not, they can talk to someone else on there without getting all over me.
I can get a back and forth going with Mark, Jimmymack, Clinton NJ, Norma, Karen A. and that’s about it. The rest of them, I don’t bother with. I can’t say having that kind of negativity directed at me doesn’t bother me, though. I’ll keep checking in over there, but I can’t see myself putting in a major effort. I feel like I’m bringing 500 horses to the water but only 5 are drinking, you know? Besides, it’s not supposed to be like that. I will not apologize for trying to foster a more involved discussion. I guess the Zo Zone just isn’t the place for that. What is there, “Tough loss…hope we get them tomorrow…go Phils”, just doesn’t do it for me, you know?
Back to the Phils……..I just read the Daily News and what did Bill Conlin say in his article: “The déjà vu is so thick around the Phillies right now that it could be any one of the high-80- win teams that have frustrated us, dating to Larry Bowa’s first- season flirtation with first place.
Once more they appear headed for high-80s territory”.
I don’t know if I’m that perceptive or if it is even a good thing to be on the same wavelength as Bill Conlin. I just thought it was interesting that I’m not the only one that sees more of the same in this year’s team.
You know, a thought occurred to me. Why do we need a top of the rotation starter? What I mean is, why is Cole Hamels all we’ve got? We were supposed to have the left/right combo of Hamels/Floyd at the top. We didn’t want to wait for Floyd any longer. Now he’s producing for someone else. Why did we have to wait so long for Floyd? Why didn’t he develop for us?
I know all the basic talking points about why there is a lack of quality major league pitchers. I just have a difficult time accepting them. Many teams have a very good record of drafting and developing pitchers. Why don’t we? The only thing that explains it is a system wide failure.
The Braves didn’t win 14 straight division titles by accident or sheer luck. They drafted and developed many of the pitchers that helped them sustain their level of success for so long. On top of that, Leo Mazzone made many of the other pitchers they picked up via trades and free agency better. The same goes for Oakland. Because of their low budget, they are forced to do a better job drafting and developing. For years, the A’s have had a steady stream of young arms coming up to the majors to take the place of the big name hurlers they lose to free agency.
What I want to know is why can’t we do that? I would think the Phils would prefer to go this route. After all, drafting and developing young pitchers through your farm system is a lot cheaper than trying to acquire pitching at the major league level via trades and free agency. I mean, we’re up against it now because we need a top of the rotation starter and the only way we are going to get one is to trade away our two best pitching prospects. If we did a better job drafting and developing young pitchers, we either would not need another starter or we would have more than two pitching prospects close to major league ready, so it wouldn’t be as painful to part with them.
This is where I think the organization’s unfailing loyalty to their people really comes back to bite them. I’m sure they want to do a better job of drafting and developing. Since they are not, somebody must be held accountable and changes need to be made. The problem is that promoting someone in-house isn’t making much of a change. It’s kind of like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. It really won’t make much of a difference as far as righting the ship.
There is no way that the Braves, A’s, Dodgers, etc…always draft the right pitcher. They have to do a very good job of development, as well. We hear a lot about our prospects, but they always seem to be a couple years away. So we wait and wait, like with Floyd, but it never seems to come. Why does it take so long for our pitchers to develop? Why do they never seem to match what we’ve heard about them for years? Over the last 15 years, there have been very few pitchers who have come up through our system and become solid contributors on the big club. Certainly not enough at any one time to make us a championship contender. It seems to me we need better pitching coaches in the minors to get the job done.
At the major league level, I know we need a better pitching coach than Rich Dubee. He is not even close to guys like Mazzone and Duncan, who have proven they are worth their weight in gold. Think about how many pitchers we have had over the years who have either been successful before they got here and then pitched poorly for us or pitched poorly for us and then turned it around somewhere else? We are talking about many pitchers over many years, not just a couple here and there. Why don’t we get more out of what we have? Why don’t we turn around pitchers who have struggled elsewhere? I mean, look what Dave Duncan has done with Kyle Lohse. Last year, he wasn’t the pitcher he is now and he darn sure wouldn’t be the pitcher he is now if he stayed here. Does anybody notice things like that and, if so, how can that be ok?
bski, the Phils’ tendency to promote in-house was covered in that Philadelphia Magazine article. It was actually kind of depressing reading that piece, how there is very little accountability within the organization, and how they’re looking for a Phillies image that’s not tied to winning or losing.
This is the same way I feel about the Sixers organization, and a lot of organizations in general – why only fire the head guy, when the final product is actually a sum of many contributions. The head guy gets blamed for any bad “contribution” even though it’s not his (Billy King: So Tony, Courtney, Mr. Financial Analyst, let me try and understand you guys – Willie Green at $4M/yr for 4 years is a sound investment?) If Billy King was allowed to make that decision all by himself, then… I don’t even want to think about it.
bski, another thing: I actually disagree with trading for starting pitching, I think we actually fared well against Red Sox and Angels pitching-wise.
I think, with pitching prospects having tremendous value right now, we should try and get hitting with our prospects instead, we’d get more in return. Instead of Sabathia we take Grady Sizemore and Casey Blake/Jhonny Peralta. What do you think?
ZACK: I think pitching is the name of the game. Good pitching wins games. Great pitching wins even more games. Pitching in baseball is just like defense in the NBA. The Celtics just won the title. They were the #1 defensive team in the league. The top three defensive teams(Celtics #1, Pistons #2, Spurs #3) all made it to the conference finals. There is no mystery as to why this happened. The same goes for pitching in MLB.
We definitely need to add a top of the line starter. In the playoffs, teams only go with their top three starters. The problem is, only one of our top three(Hamels) is a playoff caliber pitcher. Moyer could possibly get the job done as our third starter, but that still leaves us one short. Again, to put it in Sixers terms, we need at least one Elton Brand level starting pitcher. The question is where is he going to come from?
Like you, I’m not thrilled with trading for starting pitching during the season, either. It is way overpriced. Plus, we will have a lot of question marks next year. Will Moyer be back? Can we re-sign Lidge? Will Myers still be in the rotation or will he be in the pen, and what will he give us? How about Eaton? When I look at it that way, I really start to question the wisdom of trading our two most major league ready pitchers away. If we are looking at that many potential pitching holes to fill, we are going to need these guys next year and beyond.
For me, the decision of whether to trade or to keep our young arms comes down to two questions:
1) Will they be ready to help us next year? We always hear how close our prospects are and how they will be helping us soon, but that day never seems to arrive.
2) Will they be major contributors to our success? I mean, are they really going to be difference makers, or are they just fillers we will be using to plug holes? If the realistic expectations for these guys is that they will be decent pitchers to round out a staff, then I say we should trade them to get a major impact, top quality starter, because that is what we really need. If these guys are truly going to make a difference beginning next year, then I say we should keep them and just go as far as we can this year with the pitching we’ve got.
This all goes back to our discussion last week under “Phillies Ramblings”. For me, Plan A would be to get more pitching so we can win in the playoffs. My plan B has two parts. Part one would be to keep our young arms, since they will be helping us starting next year, and go as far as we can with the pitching we’ve got. Part two would be to add a bat or two. The first reason I would add hitting is because if we are in a situation where we can’t outpitch the other team, then our only shot for this year is to outscore them. The second reason is that an overload of bats will help for next year as well. It can help fill a hole if we don’t re-sign Burrell. It can also help free up some of our major league players to use in off season trades to fill other needs, instead of wiping out our farm system. We could free ourselves up to use Howard, Victorino, Werth, Jenkins, Dobbs, Ruiz, maybe even Feliz, depending on who we add now. Those players that you mentioned from the Indians would be fantastic additions.
This really could be the way to go. Remaking our offense now and then adding the young arms into the mix next year certainly could be the recipe for success. It sure sounds better than wiping out our farm system and sticking with the same inconsistent offense, doesn’t it?
bski, I’m all NBA Draft-ed out for now, how about a quick pause for some Phillies chat…
1. What do you think of the Phils changing their lineup?
2. Isn’t embarassing that our manager is a hitting guru but he hasn’t been able to get our guys out of their hitting funk, and his solution is to change the lineup?
3. It’s not that I don’t think pitching is important, it’s that we’re giving up promising youngsters for unproven pitchers – what have Sabathia, Bedard or Burnett done? I’m especially leery of Sabathia, he STUNK STUNK STUNK against the Red Sox in the 2007 ALCS. And why are we targeting the starting pitcher from last year’s AL playoffs with the worst ERA?
Sabathia 8.80
Carmona 7.20
Westbrook 5.60
Byrd 3.60
Don’t you think getting Westbrook or Byrd would be less costly than the Sabathia or Carmona? Maybe it’s Sabathia’s exotic name, if he was C.C. Eaton people wouldn’t be falling over themselves to try and get the guy. I’d love to trade J-Roll for Byrd/Westbrook + Peralta, I think that improves our chances in the postseason more than trading our top prospects for C.C. Eaton.
Zach-
because you’ve had so many insightful posts on our blog, i’m going to go ahead an ignore the fact that you just proposed we trade our team leader, 2nd most popular player, reigning NL MVP and a player who might have his number retired, for 2 mediocre pitchers with no upside and Johnny Peralta.
Pete, first off, Zack with a “k”.
Second, do you have any insights into pitchers’ upsides, and how much that should be valued over what’s actually been achieved?
About J-Roll, how valuable is team leadership and popularity amongst fans? Modell’s will be pissed because they’ll have to discount all those J-Roll shirts, that’s for sure. But you’re basically saying we need to add those two characteristics to J-Roll’s value when trying to decide what he could fetch, because the other team will also get that leadership and popularity?
Another thing – why Bedard? Why not King Felix, if we’re gutting our farm system for help NOW! Why get someone with upside when you can get a proven Red Sox killer, and someone the league is terrified of? If upside is that valuable, why wouldn’t the Mariners get rid of their top pitcher for two pitchers with the upside to get just as good?
ZACK: Glad you’re back. Take a break from the NBA draft. Besides, you’ve already gotten your ideas across to Stefanski, right? Not much more you can do there.
Let’s see what we’ve got:
1) I have been hoping for a lineup change for quite a while, so it’s about darn time as far as I’m concerned. The degree of change smacks of desperation, but I’ll take it. It’s a funny thing. For as much micro-managing as Manuel does late in games with all of his situational pitching, pinch hitting, pinch running, and defensive replacements, he doesn’t do much macro-managing. He just keeps putting the same guys in the same spots in the lineup day after day. While I agree with not making knee-jerk decisions and constantly moving guys all over the place, there is a middle ground. Manuel says all the time that baseball is a “relax” game. He says you can’t perform well if there is too much tension or pressure. I can agree to a point, but it seems like we go beyond relaxed and into complacent pretty regularly. I think a little pressure is good. There is nothing wrong with sending messages and having guys worrying about their jobs a bit. Again, if you can bench Rollins for a lack of hustle, you certainly can drop a guy in the batting order if he’s not producing, or bench him if he is consistently hurting your chances to win.
2) As far as Manuel not being able to get us out of our hitting funk, I will go back to what Jeff Van Gundy said during the Spurs-Suns series. The Suns were down 0-3 at home and played like a house on fire in game 4. Either Breen or Jackson asked why the Suns couldn’t play like this all the time. Van Gundy said that you really can’t change players. In the short-term you might make an impact but overall they are what they are and they do what they do. He said a coach really can’t make any lasting, long-term changes. This is nothing new for us. We have been doing the same thing for years. When we hit home runs, we score. When we don’t, it’s slim pickings. Last night’s win was great, but no home runs=only 4 runs scored. Kendrick won the game, not the offense. I’m sure Manuel knows what to do to help the hitters and is telling the players. He just can’t get them to change. He’s got to be telling Ryan Howard to stay on the ball better, not to pull off, and to hit the outside pitch the opposite way. Ryan Howard is not doing it. He certainly can. We’ve seen him do it with devastating effectiveness in 2006. Players get comfortable doing things the same way. If it works, that’s great. If it doesn’t, they need to change. As a manager, if a player who is just not hitting tells me he doesn’t want to change because it’s not comfortable for him, I would have to tell him that I’m not comfortable with him not hitting. This goes back to point #1 about sending a message. The manager can say, “You’re not comfortable with changing your approach at the plate, fine. Then I will drop you in the lineup if you struggle and I will bench you if you don’t produce for a long stretch”. Still, I’m putting this more on the players being resistant to change than on Manuel for not getting them to change.
3) I would much prefer to have a steady stream of good young arms coming up through our system so we can stay well stocked with quality pitching. Why we don’t have that is a topic for a long debate. Because we don’t have that, we are in our current situation of needing to overpay for pitching help from outside. The whole thing for me, with regard to “promising youngsters” as you call them, comes down to two questions: 1) How long do I have to wait? 2) Who am I waiting for? If your answers are three years, Brandon Duckworth, I’ll pass, thank you very much. You’ve got to admit that we don’t have a good track record for drafting and developing young pitchers, so I don’t know how promising our youngsters truly are. For years, we have waited and waited. For years, we have heard about all the promising young pitchers who were going to come to Philly and be mainstays in our rotation for years. Aside from Hamels, where are they? If Carrasco is going to be a #1 or #2 starter for us beginning next year, we would be foolish to trade him. If, on the other hand, he will be a #3 or #4 starter in two or three years, why should we worry so much about trading him for help right now?
As far as going the less costly route, I don’t care about that. As a fan, my concern is getting the best possible pitcher out there, regardless of the cost. The Phils have a team that can possibly win it all now. They’ve got to do what is necessary to give us our best shot now. As far as I’m concerned, the Phils backed us into this corner by not doing a good enough job drafting and developing young pitchers and by not signing other free agent pitchers when they were available. Like the saying goes, you can pay me now or you can pay me later. At some point, if we are going to have any shot at a title, the Phils are going to have to pay.
Zack -
to answer your first point – if you are trading an MVP, who is only 29, and under contract for a couple more years – you had better get a young pitcher with the potential to be a #1 starter. With Byrd, you are getting a 37-year old with a 5+ ERA who might pitch one more year. With Westbrook, you get a 30-year old who will get you around a 4.00 ERA. Not bad. With Peralta, you get the definition of an average SS. .250, 15-20 HR, 70 RBI.
IF you were to go about trading a player like Rollins, you would want the Indians youngest talents. First of all because you would get them for their prime years and second of all because you wouldn’t have to pay them any money until they were on your team for 3 years. If we were trading Rollins? I’d ask for Westbrook, their top pitching prospect and a good hitting prospect.
To answer your next point: In Philadelphia? Abso-frickin-lutely. You could almost say that team leadership is MORE important than what happens on the field in this town. Example 1A would be Donovan McNabb – easily the best QB in eagles history, who has led us to more playoff victories than the other QBs combined. Yet – he gets killed by the media, and is even HATED by many fans, because they don’t think he is enough of a leader. If you want Phillies examples, look no further than the very productive career of Bobby Abreu. Abreu was phenomenal for the Phillies, but was hated by many fans, in part, because he was passive and not a team leader.
and yes – you absolutely have to take leadership, popularity and many other off-the-field qualities into account. Would the Yankees trade an older Derek Jeter? absolutely not. Would the Red Sox trade Varitek?
as for King Felix. There aren’t 2 pitchers in ANY minor league system that have his upside. he’ll get traded when LeBron gets traded.
ZACK: Jeez, I missed quite a bit while I was putting together my earlier response. I got caught up in the other stuff and never did address your question about trading Rollins.
I’m with Pete on this. For now, I would have to put Rollins on the untouchable list, along with Utley and Hamels. I couldn’t go for trading Rollins unless we had a bona fide replacement to take his place and we got at least equal, major young talent in return.
Based on our recent past, we don’t do well when trading our top players. We got Omar Daal, Vicente Padilla, Nelson Figeuroa, and Travis Lee for Curt Schilling. Padilla was by far the best of that bunch, but we certainly didn’t get equal value in return. For Scott Rolen we got Bud Smith, Mike Timlin, and Placido Polanco. Polanco was solid but we traded him for Ugueth Urbina. Again, not close to equal value.
I think the Rolen example is particularly instructive, because we are still looking for a third baseman of his caliber six years after the trade. I would expect similar problems at shortstop if we traded Rollins.