The Phillies are up 5 games in the middle of September, things are good, right?
It certainly doesn’t feel that way.
The red-hot Marlins are slowly gaining on us and have 6 games remaining against us to make a quick move. Do I think we are on the verge of a collapse? I’m not ready to go there yet – but I’m not exactly bullish on our team’s chances even if we do make it to the postseason for the following reasons…
7-8-9 in the Bullpen – The closer position has been a complete disaster this year, but that’s not the only problem in the bullpen. If you remember, this was time last year when we had Romero in the 7th, Madson in the 8th and Lidge in the 9th and all 3 were lights out. Right now? I can’t even tell you from day-to-day who is going to be in any of those 3 situations and have little confidence in whoever we throw out there. This is not going to work in the playoffs.
The Bench- Dobbs, Stairs and Coste were huge for us last year. This year? The whole bench is underperforming. As a team, our non-starters have a .181 batting average on the season. There is no one I would want up there right now in a big late inning at-bat.
Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels- One of these guys, it doesn’t matter who, needs to be what Hamels was for us last year and be the “there is no way you are going to win this game” shut down pitcher. Lee appeared like he was going to be that guy in the starts after his trade. His last 3? Not so much. Hamels looked like he might be coming back to form with 2 straight masterful performances, but also dropped down a peg in his last start.
Inability to Manufacture Runs – I know this is the same way we were last year, but if you remember in the playoffs, it was our pitching, not our hitting, that carried us to the title. Home runs are great, but when you are facing top pitchers, as we will in the playoffs, you can’t rely on them.
Sloppiness – I’m not sure what it is, but our defense and baserunning hasn’t been terribly sharp recently. Examples that come to mind: Utley not getting to 2nd on the passed ball in the 9th last night. Howard’s defense reverting to its old form including flat out dropping a throw to first. Feliz’ throws have been off. All sorts of little stuff like this.
Injuries – Romero, Condrey, Dobbs are on the DL. Happ and Eyre have sore arms, and I’m pretty sure Ibanez never fully recovered from his injury.
The Cardinals – These guys are far and away the best team in the NL. Their 1-2 starters might finish 1-2 in the Cy Young voting, they have the undisputed best hitter in baseball and a shutdown closer. I don’t see us, or anyone in the NL, beating them.
Lots can change between now and October, but I don’t think how things are shaping out, and neither does Charlie. Let’s move straight on to the Mets series…
Friday: Hamels vs. RHP Nelson Figueroa
Saturday: Moyer vs. RHP Mike Pelfrey
Sunday (Game 1): Kendrick vs. RHP John Maine
Sunday (Game 2): Martinez vs. RHP Tim Redding
Three Key Questions for the Series…
- Can we please get our bats going against 4 straight mediocre right handers?
- Who closes the next game?
- Are the Mets sticking it to us for the last 2 years by letting the Marlins roll them and then playing us tough?
Prediction
I predict a real frustrating series. We’ve got Moyer and Kendrick going in 2 of the games, and who knows how that will turn out. The Mets have Phillies killer Tim Redding in one, and a 3 other pitchers who we should kill, but probably won’t. I don’t know how it will shake out for each game, but I’m predicting a split for the Phils while the Marlins sweep the Nats and get within 3 1/2 games. However, the good news is that the Marlins next series is on the road against the Cardinals, while we get the Nats, so if we do play well this series, we could really bury them by the end of next week.
Other random predictions on games I care about this weekend…
Notre Dame 31, Michigan 21
USC 28, Ohio State 17
Panthers 21, Eagles 13
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{ 22 comments… read them below or add one }
Worst part: Charlie’s worried, growing rasher, grumpier. Now talkin’ about just winnin’ the game. And day-to-day decision-making. Whatever it takes. One translation: We’re not lookin’ good and I’m tightenin’ up, changin’ my ways. Any systematic regularity re pitching staff, such as it had been and circumstances had allowed, is out the window. That managerial anxiety and its offshoots will transmit to and affect players; may prevent winning, or make it more difficult to achieve.
Pete: ’should we be getting nervous?’ – you might as well tell everyone to then. i’ve seen too much phillies baseball to panic;
#1 baseball is a long 162 games, i’m just as worried now as i was when they were 4 games back and then 7 games up. Dogers were ‘best team in baseball’, now all of a sudden they’re fighting with Colorado. Cardinals were legging it with the Cubs and Brewers, now all of a sudden everyone’s picking them to go to the WS; Ohh Matt Holliday was the final piece! oh this! that! Wainwright and Carpenter should both get Cy Youngs– ebb and flow. all of it
#2 its the Phillies! whaddyu expect. I wont be surprised if we clinch the division two days before the final game. buncha cocky nut-jobs! we could have swept Washington if Howard had not GIDP.
well whatever way they wanna get it done.
Pete: Remmeber the year the Cardinals won the WS. They started off with a record April and May. Pujols hit like a million HRs to start off. they ran away with it for most of the season and at the end barely stumbled in the playoffs after holding off the charging Astros. October is a whole new dice roll. all youn can do now is make sure you get in.
Todd Zolecki has another injury update:
Left-hander J.A. Happ, who has a strained intercostal muscle, said he thinks he is better than 50-50 to make his next scheduled start Friday against the Braves in Atlanta. Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said Happ is about 50-50.
Left-hander Scott Eyre said he hopes to receive a cortisone injection into his left elbow today or tomorrow so he can return to the mound in the next few days. Eyre has a “loose body” in the elbow. He described it as a bone chip still attached to the muscle or cartilage. Eyre said he will try to pitch through the pain the remainder of the season.
Left-hander J.C. Romero, who had a cortisone injection in his left elbow Tuesday, said he hopes to rejoin the team possibly as early as next Friday in Atlanta.
Right-hander Clay Condrey could begin a rehab assignment soon. I hope to have an update on that ASAP.
bski: so in addition to pitching porrly, we are also hurting. isn’t it strange how streaky our pitching staff seems?
colorado is the hottest team in baseball right now. would be ridiculous if they end up overtaking the dodgers (they are only 2 back now), in which case we’d probably see them again in the NLDS.
Yeah, jkay, a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness has really left us with an unsettled bullpen.
Like Pete said, last year is was Romero-Madson-Lidge, no question. This year, ????. From the looks of it, Charlie is trying to establish a Myers-Madson 8th and 9th inning tandem, but what about the 7th? Park? Durbin? Who knows?
Gotta be concerned over who our lefty is going to be too. Romero is hoping to be back by next weekend, however, even if he is will he be able to get himself together over the final two weeks of the season so that he will again be a reliable 7th inning option for the playoffs? After he came back from his 50-game suspension he wasn’t sharp, he walked a lot of guys, and it took him a while before he began to regain his command. I’m kind of expecting the same thing when he comes back from this injury.
Eyre says he is just going to pitch through his elbow injury as best he can for as long as he can, so who knows what we’re going to get from him the rest of the way. Doesn’t sound like we should be counting on much though.
So now we’re looking at Escalona and Taschner being our only lefty relievers. Hardly reassuring.
I know my mind is running ahead a bit, but I wonder if Happ might end up being a bullpen option for the playoffs. A lot will happen between now and then, but depending on how Happ comes back from his injury (also the fact that in light of the injury the Phils might want to limit his innings), how Martinez (and maybe Moyer too) does the rest of the way, and the situations of Romero and Eyre (what lefty options we have in the pen), Happ could possibly help us the most in the bullpen throughout the playoffs.
I read this about Pedro Feliz in today’s Daily News…………
In 376 at-bats against righthanders this season going into last night, he is hitting .285 with a .324 on-base percentage. In 120 at-bats against lefties, he is hitting .217 with a .286 on-base percentage. Last year, his splits were reversed. In 286 at-bats against righties, he hit .231 with a .279 on-base percentage. In 139 at-bats against lefties, he hit .288 with a .344 on-base percentage.
…………and it reminded me of an article I read on fangraphs.com last week (Mr. Consistency)…………
There might not be an easier player in baseball to project than Pedro Feliz. Always known for his glove more than his bat, Feliz has settled into a remarkably consistent pattern of offensive results.
2006: .709 OPS
2007: .708 OPS
2008: .705 OPS
2009: .706 OPS
That’s hard to do. Feliz’s skills have shifted around from year to year more than those numbers would suggest – he makes better contact than he used to, but his power has disappeared since May – but the overall effect has been about the same. As one part of his game improves, something else declines in proportion, leaving him the same guy he was the year before. Literally.
Mike: i wouldnt be surprised if they did. their improbable comeback is not just their own brilliant pay but also the Dodgers’ lackadaisical performances the last 2 months.
bski: the bullpen has tons of arms, all ar questionable. but the lefty issue could really hurt.
Call me crazy, but Lidge really should stay in the closer role once he gets some time to relax, get the blister off his finger, bump his confidence up, etc. I know that is all hard to quantify so thus risky. The fact of the matter is, Madson is a legit setup man, and though sometimes susceptible to the homerun – he most of the time an automatic bridge to the 9th. For whatever reason, he just can’t seem to do it in save situations.
Lidge has been anything but automatic this year, granted. But I am not sure they have a better option. I suppose Myers is a possibility, but I do not know how ready he is (which maybe he is the best option). Lidge has been eradic, but his velocity has been there and his slider has had its bite. Not trying to make excuses for him, but it seems often when his command has been off he has been either hurt or working on his 3rd – 4th day in a row. His biggest key, in my opinion, is to just locate his fastball. When he does that, obviosuly he gest ahead of hitters forces them to swing at his slider. It seems like most of his trouble has been as a result of not locating his fastball, so hitters are basically sitting on that pitch.
Bottom line, the juggling bullpen has more risk. If Madson is the closer then the domino effect screws up 2 innings as opposed to one. Perhaps Lidge needs to be spared from time to time, because obviously he does not have the confidence he had last year – I would rather be worried in the 9th than in wondering how the bullpen will be used from the 6-7 inning on everytime they have a 3 run lead or less. Continuity goes a long way.
I don’t pretend to have the silver bullet especially given Eyre, Romero, and other pitchers hurt at inopportune times. And it is also really tricky to walk that line of continuity when the same situation presents itself 3 or 4 games in a row, and pitchers get overworked.
I am convinced that the problem with Lidge is trotally mental. It happened to him in Houston and it appears to be repeating itself. So he had better shape up and clearhis head out and repeat his stellar performance of last year since he did a great job in taking the Phillies to and through the world Series.
I agree with you, Skip. It’s for that reason I think Brett Myers (even though he had a bad outing last night) is probably the reliever best suited for the 9th inning right now. Myers is nuts, and I mean that in a good way.
Also, off the point: Couldn’t help but read the Inky article on former Phillies who are doing well now. What is it out there that makes the light bulb suddenly go on for them? Is it a reflection of how our organization brings its players along? Is it getting out of the Philly pressure-cooker and being able to focus on their game better?
Going to the game tonight. Hope Pedro stays on a roll and gives the bullpen a break.
Yes, move Madson back to the 8th and see if he can get back to his top form in time for the playoffs. Start getting Escalona some appearances, because I don’t have a lot of faith in Eyre and/or Romero getting healthy before next year. As for the Cards being the best, the Braves just took out the broom in Atlanta and the Phils took 2 of 3 from them right after all their big trades – Colorado is the scarier opponent.
Will Charlie leave Pedro in for the 9th?
Pedro was amazing tonight. Is it possible that he might be pitching his way into the playoff rotation?
Was anyone else as irritated with Joe Morgan and Steve Phillips as I was in the 8th inning last night? I’m not saying that they were necessarily wrong in questioning leaving Pedro in the game that long and allowing him to throw as many pitches as he did, coming as it did on the heels of a 119-pitch outing in his previous start. It was a valid issue worth noting. However, there was no reason to go on and on and on and on about it for the entire half-inning.
I mean, really, I got the point the first time around and I had a complete grasp of every nuance after the fifth rehashing. It really took away from the game for me because, well, there was an actual game being played which was being ignored and trying to block out that endless discussion made the game that much more difficult to follow.
One more question. Does anyone else live in Brad Lidge’s universe? If so, I need you to explain to me how what I saw him do on the mound yesterday afternoon could translate into a quote like this from him:
“I actually felt real good, a lot more in control,” Lidge said. “It wasn’t the fastest save, but obviously we got it done and I’m really happy about the result. I felt like I was able to do some things out of the stretch that I wasn’t able to do for a while out of the stretch, so that really helped me out.”
Charlie Manuel must have one foot in each reality because he said this:
Asked if yesterday’s performance represented a step forward, Manuel said, “It’s damn sure not a step back.”
I guess technically Charlie is right. Lidge didn’t go backwards, but we need him to go forward——a long way forward——don’t we? I didn’t see any sign of that.
Drolz,
I found this in Buster Oney’s chat today:
Bob (Philly)
Will it be Pedro or Happ as 4th starter in the playoffs?
Buster Olney
(1:16 PM)
Bob: If Pedro keeps throwing like that, he’d be the No. 4 starter. He is tied for second in generating missed swings, behind Vazquez, since the beginning of August… that’s pretty darned good.
I’d have to agree. First, you have what Pedro is doing. Second, you have to consider the amount of postseason experience he has. Third, we have the very real potential for a problem/deficiency with our lefty relievers, like I talked about in #7. Finally, it would give us more balance having two left-handed and two right-handed starters, for whatever that’s worth.
bski-
Here is a report on Happ from Andy Martino:
J.A. Happ, attempting to return from a tricky oblique/intercostal/whatever, it’s a muscle in his right side strain, threw 55 pitches in a bullpen session this morning at Citizens Bank Park, his first action off a mound since the injury occured nine days ago in Houston. Happ, who has missed two starts, was hopeful he could pitch Friday in Atlanta. He and the team will know more tomorrow, when soreness does or does not follow today’s workout.
This was a significant test, because throwing meant risking re-aggravation of the strain.
“I was a little nervous getting on the mound,” he said. “I felt good, though. I felt like I still had power and torque.”
Happ said that while he could still feel the strain, the pain was no longer sharp.
That’s good news about step 1 on his way to returning. No need to rush him along. We’ve got 3 weeks before the playoffs start. Don’t want him to reinjure it and set himself back. Better to make sure he is completely healthy first.
Drolz: agreed, Myers is nuts. seems like Madson doesnt have the needed mentality. hope he knocks off the rust and forces Charlie to give him a try.
bski,
I am with you on Morgan and Phillips. Morgan was one heck of a player, but he adds very little in my opinion when it comes to commentating. He is often negative, his insight is rarely profound, and he does exactly what you allude to. Take one thing and talk about it and talk about it and talk about it. It was not a bad point, but give me a break. Phillips can be ok sometimes, but overall things like last night turn me off of him to.