In the game preview I asked if the Sixers had any shot to win this game. My conclusion was not at all. Others had the same feeling as well.
And although they played better the result was the same – a loss. I think we will have to get used to that against the better teams too. The Sixers just don’t shoot well enough from the perimeter and they settle too often for those lower percentage shots for them to beat good defensive teams.
The question is there anything we can take from this game even in a losing effort?
Most of you know I am not really a silver lining or moral victory guy but I did see a few things I liked.
1. Elton Brand put together a real solid performance in the second game of a back-to-back and has played well in three straight games. He has also played about 38 minutes per game over that span. 19.6ppg, 10.3rpg, 1.6apg, 2.6spg, 3.6bpg, 13-15 from the line (86.6%), 23-44 from the field (52.2%). Brand is impacting the game on both ends of the floor in a big way. Hopefully the rest of the Sixers can get on the same page.
2. I think Jordan found his top perimeter player off the bench. Rodney Carney has brought a lot of energy, he is spreading the floor with his shooting, he is helping out on the boards and he plays solid defense particularly on the ball (just needs to eliminate the brain farts where he loses his guy for open threes).
3. That last point leads into my next one. Tighter rotation. Jordan has begun to play his starters more and only really giving minutes to 2 reserve players. Now this very well be out of necessity with all the injuries but it’s a positive none the less. The best way to get your core guys into a rhythm is to play them together more. So far this season Jordan has been mixing and matching guys almost haphazardly. Now he is running primarily with the starts and 2 or 3 guys. An 8 man rotation. This is good in my opinion. Sure he is extending, over extending even his regulars but when you aren’t playing well, have no clue who your go to guys and line-ups are and can’t seem to get any consistently offensively or defensively the best thing you can do is tighten up the rotation. You need to get those guys to figure it out and more time on he court in real games paired with good in-game coaching AND post game video analysis is the key. Hopefully Jordan has figured that out. Once you get the core guys running well you can start interjecting more reserves so you don’t burn out your starters.
The Sixers have a full strength Washington Wizards coming up Tuesday and it gets much tougher from there. They need to pull out a win next game or a horrible, horrible slide is almost a forgone conclusion.
The Wizard are the perfect game for this team. Not a wounded and weak team that the would likely play down to. And not an elite team they might play up to but still lose. A team on similar footing trying to figure things out but who has talent and will challenge the Sixers especially offensively.
Until then I’ll have some other stuff posted for us to chat about.
{ 52 comments… read them below or add one }
Dannie, right on about his substitutions, he has to quicken this groups getting familar with each other. One injury in Wash., I believe M.Miller may be out but they better not worry about the other team right now. What did you think of our ugly 4th quarter offense. No cutting or ball movement, do you think that should be Jordan!s main area to address after watching the film? Elton seems to be earning late game touches now.
By the way, what was your take on Memphis? They looked well coached to me and got the ball inside a lot, their strength and our weakness. They won 3 in a row and seem to be better than given credit for. R.Gay looks like a beast and gives me hope for Thad because in his 4th year he is coming into his own and they seem to get compared a lot.
Suede - Yeah Miller is out 4-5 weeks got hurt last nite.
I think the 4th quarter offense had a lot more to do with the players than Jordan’s system.
Lou and Iguodala took some ill advised deep jumpers early in the shot clock. That’s just poor shot selection and I blame much of the 4th quarter offensive struggles to:
While I understand that from a positional standpoint this offense doesn’t necessarily need a traditional point guard. But from a practical, real-world standpoint there MUST be a ball-handler on the floor that makes good decisions, understands match-ups and where advantageous are, game flow and game situation. Right now we have no one on this roster with those traits. And that player needs to be well respected, trusted and aggressive enough to act and execute on those traits (which is why I am not sure Jrue can be the guy yet, although he needs an opportunity to show what he can do).
A guy that says “YO stop shooting all those dumb as jumpers and let’s get a lay-up or Brand an inside touch.”
Who is that guy? Can it be Brand? Very few bigs can play that role because they don’t have the ball all that much and don’t dictate offense. Tim Duncan does it but well he’s Tim Duncan a rare breed.
Suede – Memphis like a lot of young teams really needs to learn what wins in this league. Defense. They have tons of fire power offensively and I see that just getting better with time.
And they were very under control against us. Looked well coached. They have a bright future.
But that future will depend on their defense getting better.
I like Memphis’ future and if they stink it up for one or two more years there are some really good PFs in college basketball right now they should be targeting to replace Randolph when his contract is up.
Iggy may have to be that guy but until he realizes he is not as good a scorer as he thinks he is than that won!t happen. Watching Maynor blend in well for Utah , I see what you mean as a pure p.g. being needed and hope Jrue is allowed to play with less pressure of forcing things and making mistakes with our coaching staff. It was interesting seeing 3 p.g.!s on Memphis!s bench; it seems Conley and M.Williams are playing under control for their team.
I thought their 3 picks were really perfect for their team, though Thabeet was a reach. I think a guy like Carroll is needed here and guys like him and Mbe-Moute are so valuable to teams. I would love a post by you and Pete down the road on possible college bigs that may be able to replace Sam in a couple of years, seems like they are becoming dinosaurs, extinct, if you get my drift.
The thing I took out of last night’s game was the comeback. We were down 20-4 when I turned on the game. We fought back and fought back leading into the 2nd half and we hung tough. How easy was it for fans to quickly give up on the game and turn it off? How easy would it have been for the frustrated players/coaches to do the same? I hate moral victories also, but I thought that was huge. The last team we played that prides themselves with defense was Boston (I believe). We got destroyed by Boston, so to stand up to the Cavs actually gives me some confidence in this team. But we have to win this next game against the Wizards (they just got demolished by the Spurs last night). Hopefully Andre figures it out and stops absolutely sucking. The signs from Brand are promising, but I’m still going to hold my opinion on him until later on. We’ll see if he keeps up the great, GREAT, work. Defense, hustle, rebounding etc.
Guest – I actually don’t take much at all out of the actual comeback because it was done our starters vs. their second team.
The Cavs’ line-up was:
That is a pretty ugly team the Cavs put on the floor for a long period of time against out top guys (Carney in for Sam).
The Cavs starters came back in around the 7:50 mark with the score 36-38 Cavs. So the Sixers made up 11 points to start that quarter against the above Cavs team.
The half time score was 51-54 Cavs. So the Sixers didn’t gain any more ground starters vs. starters the rest of the 2nd quarter.
What was more impressive was the 3rd quarter. Those 12 minutes were top 7 vs. top 7 with James on the floor the entire quarter and the Sixers won that quarter 30-21.
They just completely sucked offensively in the 4th only scoring 10 points.
Suede – Just not a lot of legit centers (6-11 to 7-foot+). Most of the elite bigs are power forwards in the league (Henson, Davis, Favors, Cousins, Patterson, Monroe, Brackins etc)
Of the PFs Monroe has the frame to potentially be a center in the NBA at 6-11, 240/250. He is actually the PERFECT center to insert into the Princeton offense since he is a a GREAT passing big and loves to do so and is playing at Georgetown.
Cole Aldrich from Kansas looks pretty good (averaged a double double last season and had a triple double with blocks in a tournament game and is a legit center prospect) but he will be out of the Sixers range.
There is a kid at Florida State I will be keeping a very close eye on since he is in the ACC. Soloman Alabi. 21 years old 7-1 center. Like most young guys this size he is more advanced on the defensive end than on the offensive end but he is super athletic, can get up and down the floor and has more potential offensively than Thabeet or Dalembert did when they came out in the draft.
The Sixers would have to be a top 10 pick to get most of those guys listed above. Alabi is still an unknown but if he plays well this season he will move into the top 10 being that he is a legit center.
Dannie, I agree. Looking back the 3rd quarter was more impressive. But I still think that some of the comments on this chat, and some comments on ESPN’s chat showed how easy it was for fans to give up on the game. Acting like it was over in the 1st quarter. Honestly, I wouldn’t have been surprised if we showed no heart, passion, or hustle after getting killed in first part of the game. I wouldn’t have been surprised if we saw the players jogging around the court in a pissy mood for the rest of the game. In that sense, I’m proud.
One thing in that 2nd quarter though. Our team finally started to realize that defense leads to offense. Forced some bad turnovers on Varejao (not too big of a feat) and that lead to easy buckets. Maybe that will lead to us jumping on opponents offenses when the put in their reserves, and we can get some easy baskets.
Suede, for centers this year, I’m a huge fan of Cole Aldrich, and even though John Wall has all the buzz right now to go #1 in the ‘10 draft, I wouldn’t be surprised if the #1 pick winds up being Aldrich. He’s really impressed the hell out of me…not the next Patrick Ewing or anything, but this is a guy that has an old school big man’s game, knows how to score in the pivot, plays good defense, is extremely active in a half court offense, has the speed to run the floor full court, sets great picks. He honestly has no glaring weak areas in his game, he does a bit of everything well. Also seems like he has a great attitude and is very coachable, and likes to get rough and mix it up in the paint.
I’m sure Dannie will back me up on this one, but Ed Davis showed off some flashes of what could be big things to come last year. I don’t know if this will be the year he breaks out, but he’s certainly got potential to down the road. Not ideal height for a center at 6′10, but there were times last year when he showed the ability to manhandle people on the low block. As in, actual post moves, and not just energy buckets and tap backs. To me good footwork in the post, and having a variety of 5-6 go to moves to go one on one with as a big man with your back to the basket is a lost art, so when I see people having worked on that skill at such a young age, I have my eye on them.
Jarvis Varnado is probably one of the single most underrated talents in the country that will get more pub as the year goes on…or less, depending on how Mississippi St. finishes the year. I’ve gotten to see a lot of SEC games the past few years, and have followed Vanardo’s progression very closely. He is in the mold of a Joey Dorsey type of player…huge body built like a tank that is intimidating as hell on defense. His shot blocking ability is off the !@#$ing charts…he AVERAGES 4-5 blocks per game. While his frosh-soph seasons he was very raw offensively, he’s begun to round out a bit, and has shown himself to not be completely indept on the offensive end his junior year. But honestly for defenses purposes, the guy is the TOTAL package…can just lock down other forwards, intimidate the guards, block shots from strong and weakside, alter shots, makes great rotations defensively. He’s a beast, will probably be a 12-15 selection.
Iowa St.’s Craig Brackens a lot of people talk about as this year’s Jason Thompson, aka a 6′11 center that scores 20 & 10’s in his sleep that do not have proper exposure because of their program (amazing how far Iowa St. has fallen…long way from the Jamal Tinsley & Marcus Fizer days!). I’ve only seen him once in a throwaway Big 12 game so can’t really comment, but he could be one of those guys that gets drafted too low and winds up surprising people.
Also in the ACC – Second year center at Florida State Soloman Alabi was a top 15 – 20 ranked freshman last year, and while he didn’t put up huge numbers, looked very solid. Especially given the fact that he was recovering from a major surgery his senior year in high school, Alabi could definitely make a big jump in production this year. With freshman, I haven’t seen G-Tech play yet, but Derrick Favors is supposed to be one of the best legit bigs in this year’s class. Him and Gani Lawal should make a great frontcourt combo this year in the ACC.
Centers not quite going extinct in the NBA – For all the talk of centers being a dying breed, if you look around the league the past 2-3 years have actually seen a huge influx of young and talented big men coming into their own:
-Andrew Bogut (starting to put it together this year)
-Andrew Bynum
-Brook Lopez
-Al Horford
-Marc Gasol
-Greg Oden
-Joakim Noah
-Roy Hibbert
-Spencer Hawes
…and this is not even mentioning vets like Dwight Howard, Chris Kaman (having a career year), Andris Biedrins or guys like Brendan Haywood and Eric Dampier that have rebounded out of no where to have solid years.
There actually seems to be a shift towards a huge emphasis in individual player development in the 00’s, and more recently that really seems to be coming into play with classic big men skills. I’d argue that the real lost art is the lack of USING big men properly in an offense, as if you watch games in the 80s – early 90’s, college or NBA, far more often the guards would immediately drop the ball into the post for scoring opportunities or to run the offense inside-out. Today’s game it is much more perimeter oriented, and you have to pull teeth to get guards to regularly dump it into the block to start the offense.
The interesting issue about drafting a center is athletasism. This team for a while was built to have athletes (who can’t shoot.) But athletic centers almost always go top 5 (look at Thabeet.)
The Sixers were lucky to get an athletic/talented PF at 16 in Speights, but if they want to draft a quality C in the #9-#12 pick range they will get someone more in the mold of a Brook Lopez or Spencer Hawes. Those guys are very talented, but do not fit into the Sixers prior mold of uber-athletic.
Not saying drafting a big with skill over athleticism is a bad thing, just that is likely what the Sixers will have to do at their likely position in the draft. The good thing is that in the P.O. skill is more important than raw physical tools.
TK76 – Just my two cents: I’ve always been of the opinion that athleticism is the most overrated trait in basketball. There are a zillion great athletes out there that can sprint the length of the court in no time, are physical beasts, dunk over people, have huge hops, or an insane amount of quickness. But all of it means nothing unless you have proper fundamentals and understand the game at a high level. I’ll take skill and IQ over a raw athlete any day. A reason guys like Eric Gordon and James Harden are going to succeed so well in the league. But for every player like J.R. Smith that manages to take his raw, selfish athletic game and turn it into something over the years…there are another 20 DeMarr Johnson’s and other players of the same ilk.
Another question along “Drafting a center” lines: Given that Brand (if he keeps this up) and Speights are both strong offensive players, do people think we’d be better off at taking a strictly defensive center…that literally ONLY concentrates on defense, rebounding, blocks…or would you rather have a mediocre defender, but one that can score on offense at a nice rate? Personally, I’d prefer the defensive stud type.
Our next game with the Wizards will not only be a chance for Eddie Jordan’s squad to take on his old team, but a game between two disoriented teams. Which one will win Tuesday’s game, as well as finally figure out a way to achieve more consistency? Which team will get out of their respective slumps? The Wizards played horribly on their road trip, including a blowout against the Spurs. The Sixers lost golden opportunities against the Grizzlies and perhaps the Pistons. Both teams are going through their injury woes, moreso the Wizards.
Take a look at this:
http://www.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/62937/20091122/arenas_wizards_have_hidden_agendas/
Also Brendan Haywood had something to say regarding Eddie Jordan:
http://www.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/62908/20091120/minutes_mean_everything_to_haywood/
I wouldn’t be surprised if Eddie Jordan coached his team really hard for Tuesday’s game and gets his “revenge”.
Key matchup: Elton Brand v.s Antwawn Jamison
Who will be hot for… ?
Sixers: Lou Williams & Elton Brand (think last year’s games!)
Wizards: Deshawn Stevenson & Mike James
GO SIXERS!!!
TK76/Dave T – That’s why I think the pick would be Greg Monroe if he was available when the Sixers are picking. This is my guy going into the draft this year for the Sixers.
He is already playing a variation of the PO at Gtown and whether Jordan is the coach or not we would be getting a highly intelligent big offensively who understands offense from a holistic point of view.
He has a great combination of size, passing ability, unselfishness, high IQ, great hands and footwork. Is a solid defender and rebounder and has a ton of potential as smooth lefty big inside. And he is already working on his face up game and extending his range.
Greg Monroe – Dannie I really like him as a player for the same reason you do, but I’m 50/50 on him as far as fitting in with our team. He has a lot of Lamar Odom in him…both in the positives in being unselfish, a great IQ for a young age, and versatility in all aspects of the game. But the negative that comes with that is sometimes it’s hard to make those guys fit in a starting lineup. Also, Greg Monroe really disappeared offensively for long stretches of games last year at GTown. But I’d cough that up more to to the fact he’s only 19-20 and freshman jitters then anything about the player he’ll be.
I’m all for saying “throw positions to the wind, talent is talent”, and think GMs dont do that nearly enough…take a “let’s get the guy, and we’ll make it work” mentality. But that can also backfire. If we went into the future having a tandem of Speights and Monroe, and Brand in the short term…well, that’s certainly the definition of a non traditonal lineup. A 6′8-6′9 undersized PF that is (or used to be) a bully in the mid post and low block, great defender and rebounder (Brand)…an all offensive PF that has 19 and 10 potential but doesnt play a lick of defense (Speights), and a 6′11 versatile freak show of an offensive talent, who will provide a myriad of traits from night to night…and possibly questionable consistency and effort.
I almost see G Monroe more as a 6′11 SF/PF then I do as a real big man…kind of the same way that I would never call a guy like Bargnani a center or a big man, or why the Okur experiment only half-works in Utah. Would certainly be an interesting experiment though, and definitely an ideal fit for the P.O. and I’m curious to see just how much Monroe steps up his game this year. He has the potential to put up a nice well rounded stat line like 16 pts, 10 rbs, 4 asts this year.
So if they get Monroe, how does he project to fit in with a rotation of Speights/Brand/Smith?
I think Speights is showing signs of a legit low block scorer (who loves to shoot jumpers- sort of like a higher scoring Sheed without the D.) So does Monroe slot next to hime, or is that to little interior presence on D?
It does seem to project well in terms of classic high post/shooting/passing P.O. frontcourts like the Kings used to feature. Also works in that it opens up the lane for drives and for Thad working over SF’s in the low post.
Tk: Except with Sacramento they had a perfect storm of 3 players to do that with. Peja was a 6′8 SF that could sit outside and nail 3’s all day or cut to the basket and receive backdoor passes for easy layups. C-Webb could run the offense from the high post, shoot 15-18 footers and bring his back to the basket game to the low block when needed. Vlade was the versatile “everything man”…grab some boards, score some buckets, make some passes, make some blocks.
A frontcourt of Elton Brand, Mareese Speights and Greg Monroe would be the equivalent of…to throw three similar players together with the same skill set…having Carlos Boozer (Brand), Zack Randolph (Speights), and Lamar Odom/Vlade Divac (Monroe) together.
It would leave one of Thad or Iggy on the bench. And god knows we still wouldnt have a PG or legit SG. God our team is so !@#$ed.
Dannie – When you talk about Monroe, are you envisioning him in the long long term future…aka: post Brand, where it would be Speights-Monroe in the post? Or do you mean a triad of Brand / Speights / Monroe with Iggy at SG?
What’s sad is that I was about to write “Greg Monroe will be a top 7-10 pick anyway, so he’ll be gone by the time we pick”…only to realize our team is headed in that direction. *bangs head on table*
There are three things with Monroe that makes me believe he can play center in the league
To truly be a center he will have to get much stronger and tougher.
If he shows a little more toughness inside, a little more defense and rebounding he could be a top 5 player.
If we were to get Monroe that would make Smith the odd man out. He just isn’t good enough. He becomes merely a spot guy for energy and when the front line players are in foul trouble.
Dave – Also I don’t think bigs disappear as much as people think in college basketball.
I think they stop getting the ball and it appears they have disappeared. Entry passes to the post has become a lost skill for perimeter players even in the pro game. It’s worse in college because defenses play a lot more pressure on the passer and what usually happens is the offensive guy gives up and either looks to drive, shoot or pass around the perimeter. I watched it happen to Hibbert all the time and it happens to Monroe and plenty of other good bigs in college as well.
Dannie – I’m with you…at the bottom of my post #11 I make the same point about offenses utilizing bigs and feeding the ball into the post being a lost art. But there is a difference between an offense being too perimeter oriented, where the guards are ignoring the big men and not giving them enough touches…and the big man not REALLY getting after it 100% and flying to the high post demanding the ball, sealing his man, fronting the defender properly and having a certain authority in the way he posts up.
I’m not saying Monroe IS that…just saying that there were certainly times last year he was guilty of losing focus and not being as active as he could be, not gunning full throttle, and over the time of a game getting lost in the shuffle a bit…a la Earl Clark of Lousville, Odom of the Heat/Lakers, Boris Diaw. Lots of young talented kids have that happen…jogging to a spot and standing there instead of having both hands up pushing and doing everything in your power to have perfect position to be an open target.
Whereas a guy like Carlos Boozer on the flipside is my ideal player for being active. He’s ALWAYS working his butt off to make himself a target. When guards don’t give him the ball they look especially silly, as he never wanders anywhere from spot to spot, he’s always a workhorse in beating a man to a spot, maintaining position, and making himself really stand out in the high post or low block. He uses his center of gravity and dominant physical position with angles at all times so he’s a perfect target. That’s a skill a lot of very talented bball players don’t do, and Monroe needs to improve there big time.
Cavs blew ‘em out in the 1st (20-4), relaxed for half a game, clamped ‘em in the 4th(10 pts.). A strong team versus a bilious team. Lebron James versus Andre Iguodala. I am not proud of Sixers’ “comeback.” They are quite the undercooked turducken this holiday season. John Madden could box out the “revitalized” Elton Brand … 3 games prove nothing. Lou Williams, 28%er, shoots 8 3s!: good thinkin’, good strategy; creamed onions at the kids’ table.
Wiz, coming off away losses to OKC & SA, will be a tough customer Tues. night.
6 double figure scorers on season. Odds are a 4th straight Sixers’ L. Unless they wear hardhats for majority of 48. Easy place for a sloppy effort; Jordan & staff must motivate.
Dannie, if the Sixers in some way (trade, odd man out, released) replace Smith with more knuckleheads, I’m taking a break from being a Sixers fan. There are only a few things that are watchable for me when they play, and his overall high bball IQ and the way he works on every possession, both defensive and offensive, is top 5 (DEAD LAST is Lou Williams playing PG – Stefanski, I can’t stand that, you hear me, YOU HEAR ME!!! – get a real point guard, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE).
Here are three more:
1) Some of Thad’s offense – he has such good form on his jumper, he has that cutesy low-post game that’s effective, and if there’s enough open floor for him he’s almost unstoppable when he attacks the basket with his Spider-Man-like agility, even though he always finishes with his left hand.
2) Carney’s hustle – I used to hate this guy, he used to just float around and wait for his shot to take the “3″, but Mo Cheeks changed that by challenging him to make a difference every time he’s out there on the floor; if Mo Cheeks hadn’t done that he’d be in Europe or China right now winning slam dunk contests. Side note: Maybe this is why Sam was so good in that 07-08 season, he simply had a coach who told him, not the press, what he wanted from him; we may not get a season like that out of Sam again.
3) When the Sixers push the ball with an athletic lineup, no NBA team is faster, they’re like those blue aliens from “Avatar”; the other team seems totally helpless when they’re backpedaling back on defense, there’s no one you can really stop when you’ve turned it over or missed a shot, and you’ve got Thad Rodney Iggy Lou coming at you; makes me want to trade for Kevin Love.
BTW, I love the calling of Willie Green “Bill Green”, that’s hilarious, he sounds like an accountant or a lawyer with a bowtie. Or a farmer.
suede, Thanks for the Austin “Red” Robbins notice. Missed it in the news. A good original ABA player, New Orleans Bucs, and the 1966 Philadelphia 76ers 6th round draft pick. Present squad could use a rangy, scrapping team player like he was.
Zack – Who said anything about moving or limiting minutes Smith’s (a marginal player let us all not forget this) for a Knucklehead?
At least right now the talk has been about replacing him with a top 14 draft pick.
Dave T – My thinking is Sam and maybe Brand will both be gone and we will have a need for a starting caliber big at some point in the next 3 years.
With that said Monroe will be in the draft this summer or next so Brand and Sam could still be here.
Overall I think this teams needs to fill needs at center, wing and point guard.
I am under the assumption Speights is a long-term answer at PF and either Dala or Thad is a long term answer at one of the wing positions.
Lou is not in my starting line-up ever. I can tolerate him off the bench. Jrue could end up being an answer at point but I also think we need to understand he may not develop into this great player that should be starting and might become a just solid contributor as the back-up point.
I think we either have to move dala and start Thad at SF next to a more dynamic player with true shooting ability at SG OR move him to the bench, keep Dala at one starting wing and add that other wing. I really don’t see that second option as that bad. Good teams have good players coming off their benches. Think Odom and Ginobili.
Sam is obviously not in the long-term picture and Brand who knows. We know he is under contract until summer of 2013. That is two seasons AFTER the Sixers organizational inflection point (summer of 2011).
Jumpin, your welcome. Dannie, what did you mean by your last sentence? If they go after Monroe does that mean our new coach has a lot of say in the draft and that he isn!t going anywhere?
Suede – What last sentence. This one:
???
Dannie, yes.
Suede – I really don’t think we can expect much in the form of major change to this team until the summer of 2011. Meaning this is not the Sixers team that is built for championship contention. We won’t know what the team is until after the summer of 2011. Right now this is just a grace period and Stefanski’s interview kind of indicated that.
Summer of 2011 is when Sam, Willie and Kapono all come off the books.
It’s also when the team must make a decision on Thad and Jason Smith and exercise their options on Speights and Jrue.
That is the off-season where they will have substantial cap space.
Also from Stefanski’s perspective it will be when the last two Billy King players will be gone (Green/Sam). I don’t consider Dala our Lou King players because Stefanski extended them.
So that off-season will be the inflection point of the Stefanski regime. It’s when the team will be 100% built by him from the players to the coach. After that summer I think you look at the next 2 seasons and that team should be competing for Eastern Conference championships.
2011 summer is big, but I think there is a shake-up befoer then. Some possibilities:
-Sam Trade
-Brand trade (given he continues to show he has some value)
-Young (or Iguodala) trade
Not saying I’m advocating any of these, just listing some franchise altering events that Stefanski could consider, especially if it looks like his clock starts ticking in terms of being on the hot seat (who knows with their horrible gate revenue how much patience Comcast has with the perception of nothing happening.)
TK76 – If they can’t trade Sam this year I don’t see any move happening before the summer of 2011. That is the catalyst move, without it most of the other moves won’t make sense.
For example if you can move Sam soon for cap relief the next move would be to move Brand so you get the cap space this summer when all the franchise altering players are available. Having cap space in 2011 is significantly less impactful. I think those two players need to be moved this year for maximum impact and opportunities. We just won’t get enough cap space by trading a single guy to really get after it this upcoming summer.
You can’t trade Thad now he has little value. Unless of course you can get another young player on a rookie deal you think fits better. The only way Thad is traded is if he is packaged to move Brand. I would not package him to move Sam given his contract is shorter.
I don’t see them trading Iguodala until they see what their options are come 2011 and how they value Thad at that point.
Zack – Definitely the first time an NBA’s team fast break offense has been compared to blue aliens from Avatar haha. On a more serious note: I’m with you on Rodney Carney. I’ve loved his development…even if you go way back to his freshman and soph seasons at Memphis this guy was the classic “all athlete, crappy jumpshot,will never “get it” type of player I thought would never succeed. He improved immensely during his junior and especially senior year in college, and we are seeing this again in the pros. He has obviously put in work on his game the past year and a half, and you are right, he is much more involved on every play and looking like a reliable defender/3 point option off the bench that every team craves.
Dannie – On a Post-Brand Sixers team, then I’d definitely agree, Speights/Monroe would be a pretty fascinating combination, and if he keeps his head on straight, would be awesome. Would be one of the most unique PF/C combos in the NBA, that’s for sure, and judging from his frosh year at GTown, well worth the pick. I still think the jury’s out though as his inconsistency last year was real up and down, so I’m curious to see what aspects of his game he’s improved the most over the summer, and whether he can be a force to be reckoned with in the BE, and not just a very good role player on a team that hugely underachieved last year.
Given the more likely fact that his stock will shoot up this year into top 7 territory though, my two picks for guys that would be there in our drafting range (12th – 15th?) would be Varnardo as the C, to give us a guy we could fortify our defense around, as well as giving Speights free range to get plenty of shots on offense (which I see as a good thing). Or to draft the true shooter you mentioned needing in a guy likes James Anderson of Oklahoma St, another guy that is just criminally underrated on the national scene right now.
With your idea of starting Iguodala, drafting/trading for a legit shooter, moving Thad to the bench, I think that’s a great idea. I think Thad would be a kickass tandem with Carney to have as our bench mob, and someone that could slide in to start if Iguodala or Speights were to come down with an injury. I am a big believer in pairing guys with opposite skills; Iguodala needs a pure shooter next to him. Thad Young is a good shooter, but not lights out. Now if Thad can keep developing and get his shot around 40% from 3…then it’s a different ballgame.
Zack – Also agree with you about the one thing you said about Thad…his quickness just slays me sometimes when he makes those post moves from the free throw line, or 12 feet away on one of the wings. It’s rare to see any caliber of defender be able to do anything about him when he goes into “Thad – Spiderman” mode.
The reason I remain optimistic with him is that he gets GREAT shots utilizing his quickness and athleticism. Usually when people try to do fancy moves or move to quick, especially with younger players, it results in turnovers. But with Thad, he seems to have an innate ability for spin moves, twirling past defenders, and ping pong-ing between and around defenders once he makes a move. It’s like once the Thad-motion gets going, he can slither his way past anyone to get an open shot.
…the problem is…he needs to FINISH those shots…and I’m of the opinion that will come with time. I’m just impressed he actually gets off some of the shots he has so cleanly and wide open, it’s impressive for a tweener.
Dannie, thanks. I may be a bit niave but I was hoping Elton, in the last 2 years of his deal was going to be leading us to a championship, if he continues his recent play. I really hope he and Marreese can start by next year and both be possible 18 and 8 guys and a defensive guy can be added for certain situations, whether it be a guy in the league or a draft pick. I would prefer trying to get the 2 guard in the draft and a veteren big. [Turiaf,R.Lopez type]. Unfortunately , future picks may be needed to get a 2 guard of consequence but if a plan is in place that risk would be worth it. I actually wouldn!t mind the next key additions being already in the league, as long as they aren!t on their last legs. Thad as a 3/4 super 6th man intrigues the hell outa me. My final title run team?
Spieghts/ defensive big
Brand/ Thad
Iggy/Thad
Shooter/Carney
Holliday/L.Will.
I just don!t know if a big better than a healthy Elton will be gettable. Even Monroe seems passive at time and I think defensive intensity next to Marreese is a must.
Couple things.
1. While I personally like the idea of keeping Thad long-term (at the right price) and having him come off the bench on a good team where it makes sense, I don’t think he would accept it or handle it well.
I think he would be a baby about it, curl up and his confidence and game will likely suffer. While I think he is a good kid, am not confident he would accept that role like Odom and Ginobili have. Just my opinion. That could change with a better coach and a real leader on this team though. And the money will come into play as well. If they overpay for Thad whether he is a starter or sub this franchise will be doomed. He’s just not that good to dump a ton of money on him like they did Iguodala and they will have compounded that contract with another one.
We would have a team full of #2 AT BEST (more likely #3) players tying up all the salary. Can’t win championships that way unless you have a lot of really good but not great players (i.e. Detroit and my stance still is that this isn’t a reliable strategy) and to do that must be willing to pay the luxury tax. In fact I am pretty sure you must be wiling to pay the luxury tax if you want to win a championship period.
2. I disagree with people saying we need to focus on getting a “defensive big” to pair with Speights. You guys must have forgot but we already have a defensive big and his name is Samuel Dalembert.
We don’t need to replace one, one-dimensional player with another. We need to start adding more complete players. Guys that can play both ways and don’t kill you on one side of the ball. Even a guy like Dikembe was adequate offensively in his prime.
And IF you are going to go with a purely one-sided player he must be better than just good, he must be exceptional (like Dikembe was defensively) in order to completely outweigh any deficiencies he may have on the other end.
This organization needs to start adding tougher, smarter and more finely skilled and polished players.
Take those three traits (smart, tough and finely skilled and polished) and tell me how many players on the current roster have all three. Then you clearly see why they play so poorly. And unless you see any of the existing players significantly improving in those three areas you might as well trash ‘em.
Need better players.
Dannie – I can’t believe I’m about to use a dreaded word that I can’t stand, but…I think you’re underselling Thad in the sense that this is only a 21 year old kid that still has a lot of “upside”. In a lot of your posts I think you are rightfully pointing out his deficiencies instead of gloating about his game, which is nice to hear as people need to be honest about the talent we’ve collected on this hodgepodge of a roster. But I think we have to cut him a bit of slack…same with Mareese Speights.
And by that I DON’T mean lower our standards…if they are being paid, they should be expected to act like professionals. But one was 19, the other 20 when we drafted them. It often takes the straight from high schoolers and freshman 3-5 years to figure their game out and really start making a dent. When people throw around the word “kids” it really does apply to them…I know most of us all had growing pains in some way or another, and I think it’s important to keep this in mind with Thad.
Right now the knocks on him are that he can be passive on offense, has weak handle, is slow in picking up EJ’s system, his defense against NBA SF’s is subpar, etc. etc. But by all accounts he is also a hard worker, a really good guy that listens and is constantly trying to actively improve his game, has a very pretty shot that will only get better, and a natural quickness and athleticism in attacking the basket. I think before you dump Thad in the category of “he won’t work out” or “is definitely a 3rd option” that we owe him a bit more patience to develop. Some 19-20 year olds figure it out right away and put up monster stats, or quietly effect the game and cause a winning atmosphere. Then there are the Jermaine O’Neals and Chauncy Billups of the NBA universe. Thad may well be in the latter group.
Defense only C – When I make this comment, I’m talking about a guy HEAD AND FOOT above the talent, and consistency of Dalembert. Sammy is a guy that has never convinced his own set of coaches that he deserves 30+ minutes a game on a regular basis. That, or he fouled too much so he literally couldn’t get the minutes. And I definitely don’t literally mean one dimensional…I more meant a guy that could get 10-11 rbs per game, 2.5 blocks, plays on ball and team defense equally well, alters shots, AND has the ability to chip in 10 ppg or so.
I think we’ve had Sammy for so long now we’ve forgotten how nice it is to have someone like Theo Ratliff manning the middle, or a Ben Wallace type, or Oakley. We don’t have a single enforcer on this team, and I really feel with the athleticism of Jrue, Iggy and Thad it would pay enormous dividends to have a monster guy at the C position defensively so the above three could take more risks on the wings.
I’m fine with trading away a player for value if you don’t see him panning out- which sounds like what you are saying. I don’t agree yet with your take on Thad’s upside, but the reasoning is sound.
But I am against trading a young player because they don’t “fit” with the current roster or scheme. I would never trade away a promising 21 year old because Thad and Iguodala don’t seem like the right fit right now. That’s akin to how Toronto let TMac go because they had VC. (Not saying Iguodala or Thad are that level of player, just similar circumstance.)
This team is far away from contending. They need to see if they can develop their talent before worrying if the young pieces can all complement each other. It is easy to trade a quality young player on their rookie deal if in 2 years they do not fit (and the team is actually ready to do something.)
Dave T – Maybe I am underselling Thad, maybe I am not. Time will tell for sure on that.
It’s just my opinion that it’s much harder to develop as a player than people think. I think fans just think to themselves oh it’s their job, they have all this time and resources they will get better. And I can tell you on any level it just doesn’t work that easily.
I am not saying Thad won’t get better. Sure incrementally he will improve. But I don’t see him getting earth-shatteringly better. I don’t think he will ever be a player you lean on heavily on either side of the ball. I don’t ever see him being better than just a very good role player.
I am using my own judgment and forecasting out and saying after he goes through his major development stage the final product isn’t what people are making it out to be. If Iguodala isn’t an all-star or considered a legit #2 or elite player with the numbers he has put up what makes anyone think Thad will reach that level (perennially at that).
You use the duration of 3-5 years. Well this is the 3rd year. Are you saying 3-5 MORE years from the end of this season? Is that practical or wise to wait 6+ years (making him untouchable during this process) to find out if this player is who you think he is?
Matter of fact, what exact DO you all think Thad’s realistic potential is? AND is it even good enough? What’s the consensus on this point?
Also I urge you to point me in the direction of raw players who developed in to elite players, great players, extremely good players, guys you would count on game in and game out.
The funny thing to me is there is so much weight on upside and potential but I just don’t see it bare out as often as it’s hyped up. At the end of the day it’s usually the guys who were already really good or who were talked about as becoming great doing so. Not the middling players with some potential.
I’ll give you a few guys who fit in that teenager/early 20s, give them some time to develop and they could be really good mold and you tell me if you see that type of player developing in Thad:
I saw Kobe play in high school on multiple occasions since he is local to me and he was far from the player he is now which is why he wasn’t as hyped as LeBron, BUT as an 18 year old he was a much better player than Thad will ever be.
My point again is where do you see Thad REALISTICALLY panning out?
I am just a bit tired of the fuzzy, hype, wishing on star talk. I just don’t buy it. And this isn’t just a Thad thing. It’s my general opinion regarding “upside.”
TK76 - I would never trade away a quality player because he doesn’t fit without getting an equally quality player that does fit.
A good player is a good player and you definitely need them. So if I were to propose a trade for Thad it would be for another young player that I think would be as productive but with a skill set that is better suited for this team.
I have one in mind that I am almost 100% sure no one would agree with but again, that’s what this blog is for to talk about it and debate it.
Also let me be clear.
I like Thad.
I just would like for more concrete conversation around his ability and potential.
I would like for a big time Thad supporter to clearly articulate the player we can expect to have in 2-3 years when he will be making real money against the cap at 23-24 years of age and have 5-6 years of NBA experience.
Dannie – To clarify, I did mean 3-5 years total, not 3-5 years after this current 3rd year.
If Thad were on another team that didn’t already have a borderline all star SF as we do in Iguodala…and Thad were to get the bulk of the SF minutes…I’d see him as a 20 ppg, 6-7 rebound type of player that has the potential to hit 38-40% from 3 down the road. I think, evntually, he’d be an ideal 3rd scorer/option on offense. While their games are different, I see him putting up Josh Howard like stats (when he was healthy).
But the reason I’d hesitate to just write Thad off as a good SF scorer and leave it at that...is that he has a real ability to be a Marion/Jamison type of hybrid player, which is a great option to have to mess around with on matchups given whatever team you were playing. I also think sometimes his quickness and level of attacking the basket in the post…sometimes he shows flashes that are downright scary, and I would hate to let him go on the off chance he has a Danny Granger like effect and with 38 mpg just gives him the consistency he needs to go nuts offensively. I do think there’s a “Wow, what if Thad really starts putting it together?…” factor here in play, that I’d be petrified of when trading him. If Thad were on, say, the NO Hornets, a team starved for wing scoring, no hesitation on my end he’d put up 20 ppg immediately. The question is whether he’s JUST a 20 ppg scorer, or has another dimension and level to his game that could launch him into another level.
My big question with how we view Thad – IF…and this is a big if…but IF he were to show true fire and passion when he plays, and had a swagger…I think he has potential to be a freaking monster. To me right now it’s less talent and more a lack of intensity play to play, and him (so far) fitting terribly into this P.O. offense that is holding him back. I also think it’s one of the rare cases where him and Iguodala aren’t a perfect match with the combo of SG/SF.
Long term – I’m a Thad “fan” but I wouldn’t say I’m in love with him. But I think eventually we will have to choose between Iguodala and Thad, and I’d take Iguodala in a heartbeat because of his versatility and better defense. I’d be ok with waiting until Thad’s stock is very high and trading him for another young talent, or some combination of a talent/draft picks, or a solid vet.
Person this team could use – Ben Gordon. I used to hate this guy and felt he was a selfish gunner his first few years. But I’ve really come to respect his game, and feel he’s the perfect mix of assassin in binge scoring that can attack the basket with reckless abandon, nail a 3 when needed from anywhere, heat up and give you instant offense that’s got moxxy, swagger and cajones. We need someone like this on our team, and unfortunately, no one has come even close since we traded Iverson.
I’m also not sure if Thad will be a near star level player or not, but I’ll try and describe the type of star he could be. It’s sort of hard, because that type of player was more in vogue 20-30 years ago and I was just a kid back then.
I don’t see Thad as a ball dominating #1 type star like is so popular today. Nor do I see him as a jack of all trades complementary star like a Pippin or Iguodala. Maybe the closest type of role would be a big version of Ginobli. Not in skill set, but in terms of dangerous and efficient scorer who can kill you without dominating the ball. A guy who can fill it up without taking away touches from a more traditional #1 type star.
I see Thad scoring 20+ pts on 50%+ FG%. Scoring on not that many shots, and killing teams both on the break and when another star draws attention. Swing the ball to Thad on the wing opr in the Post and bang he scores. No highlight reel. No extra dribbles, just efficient offense. He would either shoot an open 3 (38%) or take two quick dribles and then finish with a spin. or he would just shoot over a smaller SF in the post.
Here’s a list of NBA players in the last 35 years with career averages of 19pts, 50% shooting and 6′8 or under. He would share some of these traits, if not be quite at the HOF level most of these players achieved
I think Thad will end up on this list (amongst rare company:
1
Charles Barkley*
6-6
1985
2000
TOT
NBA
1073
36.7
7.9
14.5
0.5
1.9
5.9
8.1
4.0
7.7
11.7
3.9
1.5
0.8
3.1
3.1
22.1
.541
.266
.735
2
Adrian Dantley*
6-5
1977
1991
TOT
NBA
955
35.8
8.6
15.8
0.0
0.1
7.2
8.7
2.3
3.4
5.7
3.0
1.0
0.2
2.9
2.7
24.3
.540
.171
.818
3
Kiki Vandeweghe
6-8
1981
1993
TOT
NBA
810
30.3
7.6
14.4
0.3
0.7
4.3
4.9
1.1
2.3
3.4
2.1
0.6
0.3
1.6
1.9
19.7
.525
.368
.872
4
Magic Johnson*
6-8
1980
1996
LAL
NBA
906
36.7
6.9
13.2
0.4
1.2
5.5
6.5
1.8
5.5
7.2
11.2
1.9
0.4
3.9
2.3
19.5
.520
.303
.848
5
Marques Johnson
6-7
1978
1990
TOT
NBA
691
34.3
8.3
16.0
0.0
0.2
3.5
4.7
2.6
4.3
7.0
3.6
1.3
0.8
2.4
2.6
20.1
.518
.152
.739
6
Bernard King
6-7
1978
1993
TOT
NBA
874
33.7
9.0
17.3
0.0
0.2
4.5
6.2
1.9
3.8
5.8
3.3
1.0
0.3
3.2
3.3
22.5
.518
.172
.730
7
George Gervin*
6-7
1976
1986
TOT
TOT
872
33.6
10.0
19.7
0.1
0.5
5.6
6.6
1.6
3.2
4.8
2.8
1.2
0.9
3.0
3.0
25.8
.510
.290
.845
8
Alex English*
6-7
1977
1991
TOT
NBA
1193
31.9
8.9
17.6
0.0
0.1
3.6
4.3
2.3
3.2
5.5
3.6
0.9
0.7
2.5
2.5
21.5
.507
.217
.832
9
Julius Erving*
6-6
1976
1987
TOT
TOT
920
34.7
8.9
17.6
0.1
0.4
4.8
6.1
2.6
4.5
7.1
4.0
1.9
1.6
3.1
2.7
22.6
.507
.287
.779
10
David Thompson*
6-4
1976
1984
TOT
TOT
592
32.8
8.5
16.8
0.1
0.3
5.7
7.3
1.6
2.5
4.1
3.3
1.0
0.9
2.7
2.7
22.7
.505
.255
.781
11
Elton Brand
6-8
2000
2010
TOT
NBA
656
37.8
7.6
15.1
0.0
0.0
4.6
6.3
3.8
6.2
10.1
2.6
0.9
2.1
2.5
3.1
19.8
.502
.154
.737
I just wrote this on Brain’s post about Thad regarding his struggles.
I don’t think it’s the offense that is his problem. I think it’s an adjustment he is still trying to make playing SF which he is doing a lot more than he ever has.
I think Thad is still getting to spots, but he isn’t getting to them as cleanly as he has against slower, less athletic defenders.
That added pressure/contest along with him having to speed up his moves a bit are the contributing factors to his lower finishing rate AND the increased regularity of traveling calls.
His increased turnover rate can be directly attributed to more travel calls on his initial moves. He has to be quicker to get by SFs on the perimeter than he does PFs. He is trying to go quicker in games before his skills (handle and footwork) have caught up.
And that’s on top of my belief that he’s just soft in general and tends to avoid/shy away from contact.
He will need to adapt. He is the definition of a left-hand bandit. And if I were him I would watch some film of Ginobili the king of the left-hand bandits for how to adjust while playing with a less adroit off hand.
Ginobili is still much, much weaker going right BUT what he has done is go right and then find creative ways to get back left and middle to finish strong comfortably with his dominant scoring hand. That helps him tremendously on the perimeter too because he can mix up his moves more, confident he can return to his strong side for higher percentage finishes.
Hopefully Thad develop a better right hand but even if he doesn’t he can be more effective if he takes some notes from Ginobili’s offensive repertoire.
Sorry my post formatted badly (looked good when I posted it.)
Basically, those are the only 11 player who in the past 35 years have averaged 19pts, shooting 50% and 6′8 or under. I think Thad could end up on this list by the end of his career.
How I see our players, if they all fulfilled their potential, as options on a contending team:
-Elton Brand – Strong 3rd option
-Andre Iguodala – 3rd option
-Thad Young – 3rd option (jury’s out on whether strong or weak)
-Mareese Speights – 2nd option (this is a long term projection 2-3 years from now after Brand’s contract is up)
-Lou Williams – 7th man…the guard that could have a Barbosa like effect and inject some speed, quickness and offense into the game.
-Rodney Carney – 7th – 8th man…the lesser James Posey / Bruce Bowen type of guy you’d want to be a defense / 3 point bomber that can bring athleticism in taking it to the rack as well.
-Jrue – ??? – Who knows. But from what I’ve seen, he’s an overhyped athlete to me that while he plays great defense, will not be our future PG. I think people viewed Antonio Daniels and Kenyon Dooling very similarly when they came out of college early “Wow, look at their height! What ATHLETES they are!!!” without taking into account that they really weren’t great PG’s that could run an offense full time, wrack of assists and get teammates involved. But, I hope Jrue proves me wrong, and I can’t wait to see more of him.
-Jason Smith – A guy that is a notch above Steven Hunter. aka: the “4th” big body to have in your frontcourt in case you need him, that doesn’t bring any huge skill or toughness to the table. Like, with the Nuggets, having their starting PF and C in K-Mart and Nene…their 6th man forward as Birdman…the Nuggets would want Jason Smith to be that “4th” guy in case someone goes down with injury.
TK76 – I see where you are going with it. But I have a rebuttal I’d like you to consider.
The reasons I don’t think he will be a 19/20ppg career scorer when it’s all said and done…
1. Not aggressive enough, so over his career I don’t think he will take enough shots or get fouled enough to be a consistent 20ppg scorer
2. Unless he drastically improves his skill as he ages I think you could see a horrible decline in his game when his athletic ability is no longer a major advantage.
I actually see him becoming more of a 100% smallish power forward when he is older because I don’t think he will ever develop elite perimeter skills (both shooting ability and handle) that could carry his game into the mid 30s as a SF when pure physical ability really starts to deteriorate. That means if he even does reach 20ppg average for a few seasons I think that run will be short.
3. He won’t have enough high scoring seasons to to outweigh his early career and late career below 20ppg scoring seasons.
If you look at that list many of those guys were NBA scoring champs with a run of season where there were scoring 25+ points per game AND they scored a lot early in their career as well. Those help hold the average up when the numbers drop at the late stages of a career. Thad as the double whammy of having lower early career scoring average right now on top of what I expect to be low late career scoring averages.
There aren’t very many Elton Brand or Marques Johnson type scorers who put up almost exactly 20 for 10+ years. Magic doesn’t really fit with this group from a scoring perspective because he was a passer first. He could have easily scored 30ppg if he wanted to. The fact that he did score 20 while dishing at such a high rate suggests that.
But I understand where you are going. And I think Thad could be a 20ppg scorer IF he develops better perimeter offensive skills to go along with his size advantage in the post. Also you have to factor in how he would respond IF we were to keep him and move Iguodala and he becomes more of a focal point of the offense which directly translates into more of a focal point for the defense as well. Can he handle that added pressure mentally and physically?
Great debate.
Good points Dannie. I’ll comment more later…
Briefle, its the 50% shooting that is so rare.
Even if you drop to 17.5 ppg as your minimum, only 18 players 6′8 and under make the cut in the last 35 years!
Per GameShooting
1
Charles Barkley*
2
Magic Johnson*
3
Adrian Dantley*
4
Julius Erving*
5
Alex English*
6
George Gervin*
7
Chris Mullin
8
Elton Brand
9
Marques Johnson
10
Walter Davis
11
Kiki Vandeweghe
12
Bernard King
13
Jamaal Wilkes
14
David Thompson*
15
Paul Westphal
16
Otis Birdsong
17
Rudy Tomjanovich
18
Doug Collins
Tk – I’d also keep in mind with the 50% shooting statistic that right now Thad doesn’t have a similar shot attempt # compared to bonafide 20ppg scorers that are essential to a team winning. Right now the Sixers aren’t relying on Thad to be a 20 ppg scorer, and aren’t expecting him to be one…yet. From box score to box score, Thad’s shot attempts waffle from 7-9 to 12-13 to 14-18. Thus him shooting 50% right now is a bit misleading.
Not that he can’t do it persay…but take a guy like Trevor Ariza (just an example, I know their games are very different). Ariza has been thrust into a spot where the Rockets NEED him to be shooting 20 shots per game, and his FG% has naturally suffered a huge hit. Much of that has to do with the fact that throughout his career, since high school Ariza has not been in this position and is not used to it, so Id assume over time as he acclimates himself his FG% will rise from the crappy 39% it is now to a mroe respectable 43-44% over time. People that shoot at a very high %, especially 2 pt jumpshots, while having to take the bulk of the team’s shots as the 1st or 2nd option is a very rare thing...one reason that makes a guy like D-Wade, Melo and K Durant stand out all the more.
Now if Thad keeps this high shooting % as the Sixers (I’d assume) attempt to make Thad a more integral part of their offense to where we are relying on him to have an output of 18 ppg or so…then it becomes very impressive. But right now, as Dannie alluded to, that pressure of having to perform within a box of taking a certain amount of shots per game is not there yet, so until that happens, all bets are off and only time will tell.
I don’t know if Thad will keep his FG% up or not. he also needs to get to the line more to be a truly efficient scorer.
But I’m optomistic based on last march. He had a 15 game stretch befoer his injury where he was scoring 20+ ppg. he gets so many easy baskets that it helps him pad his FG%. But those easy baskets are due to the fact he is longer and faster than the man guarding him, and he has a great nose for loose balls (despite lacking true toughness.)
Dannie raises the specter of declining production once he looses a step (in about 10 years…) but I expect by then he will more than compensate with improved shooting and feel for the game.
One worry I have is that he looks out of control. That can lead to injury (and TO’s.) We have to hope he looks less out of control with time. Ginobli initially looked way out of control but was effective. He looks somewhat smoother now (or maybe we are just used to the way he attacks.)
TK76 - Yeah Ginobili is probably the guy I would be hoping Thad developed into.
He would need to lift his perimeter shooting number particular his three point shot as many have said into that 38% range. He wouldn’t take as many as Ginobili in general and especially off the bounce (Thad has no jumper off the dribble right now it’s all to the cup or spot up jumpers) so his overall FG% should be higher than Ginobili’s. And I still hold out hope he can become a better passer but I doubt it.
Thing is with Thad, if he only changed one aspect of his game that would completely win me over it would be foul drawing AND FT%. He should be getting to the line 5+ times per game shooting 80% from the line. That alone would make me have a ton more faith in his game.
Think about right now. Brand and Speights are probably the Sixers best (least volatile) free throw shooters right now with Lou also in the mix.
End game situations those guys aren’t going to be the ones getting fouled. Dala, Thad and Lou are and I simply don’t trust them dudes even Lou’s 82.7%. I am hoping Thad can emerge from that group in this area.
Guys, when opposing coaches start putting their best defensive wing on Thad rather than Iggy does that mean he has arrived? Great talk by the way. Marques Johnson seems a good comparison to me, scored as many points inside as out.
Dannie, if I were to guess, the player you have in mind was a college teammate of Thad.