Comments on: Sixers Give Cleveland Their Best Shot But It’s Not Enough

By: deepsixersuede

deepsixersuede — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 02:12:07 +0000

Dannie, if I were to guess, the player you have in mind was a college teammate of Thad.

By: deepsixersuede

deepsixersuede — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 00:34:41 +0000

Guys, when opposing coaches start putting their best defensive wing on Thad rather than Iggy does that mean he has arrived? Great talk by the way. Marques Johnson seems a good comparison to me, scored as many points inside as out.

By: Dannie

Dannie — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 20:11:37 +0000

TK76 - Yeah Ginobili is probably the guy I would be hoping Thad developed into.

He would need to lift his perimeter shooting number particular his three point shot as many have said into that 38% range. He wouldn't take as many as Ginobili in general and especially off the bounce (Thad has no jumper off the dribble right now it's all to the cup or spot up jumpers) so his overall FG% should be higher than Ginobili's. And I still hold out hope he can become a better passer but I doubt it.

Thing is with Thad, if he only changed one aspect of his game that would completely win me over it would be foul drawing AND FT%. He should be getting to the line 5+ times per game shooting 80% from the line. That alone would make me have a ton more faith in his game.

Think about right now. Brand and Speights are probably the Sixers best (least volatile) free throw shooters right now with Lou also in the mix.

End game situations those guys aren't going to be the ones getting fouled. Dala, Thad and Lou are and I simply don't trust them dudes even Lou's 82.7%. I am hoping Thad can emerge from that group in this area.

By: tk76

tk76 — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 19:32:13 +0000

I don’t know if Thad will keep his FG% up or not. he also needs to get to the line more to be a truly efficient scorer.

But I’m optomistic based on last march. He had a 15 game stretch befoer his injury where he was scoring 20+ ppg. he gets so many easy baskets that it helps him pad his FG%. But those easy baskets are due to the fact he is longer and faster than the man guarding him, and he has a great nose for loose balls (despite lacking true toughness.)

Dannie raises the specter of declining production once he looses a step (in about 10 years…) but I expect by then he will more than compensate with improved shooting and feel for the game.

One worry I have is that he looks out of control. That can lead to injury (and TO’s.) We have to hope he looks less out of control with time. Ginobli initially looked way out of control but was effective. He looks somewhat smoother now (or maybe we are just used to the way he attacks.)

By: Dave T

Dave T — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 19:19:59 +0000

Tk - I'd also keep in mind with the 50% shooting statistic that right now Thad doesn't have a similar shot attempt # compared to bonafide 20ppg scorers that are essential to a team winning. Right now the Sixers aren't relying on Thad to be a 20 ppg scorer, and aren't expecting him to be one...yet. From box score to box score, Thad's shot attempts waffle from 7-9 to 12-13 to 14-18. Thus him shooting 50% right now is a bit misleading. Not that he can't do it persay...but take a guy like Trevor Ariza (just an example, I know their games are very different). Ariza has been thrust into a spot where the Rockets NEED him to be shooting 20 shots per game, and his FG% has naturally suffered a huge hit. Much of that has to do with the fact that throughout his career, since high school Ariza has not been in this position and is not used to it, so Id assume over time as he acclimates himself his FG% will rise from the crappy 39% it is now to a mroe respectable 43-44% over time. People that shoot at a very high %, especially 2 pt jumpshots, while having to take the bulk of the team's shots as the 1st or 2nd option is a very rare thing...one reason that makes a guy like D-Wade, Melo and K Durant stand out all the more. Now if Thad keeps this high shooting % as the Sixers (I'd assume) attempt to make Thad a more integral part of their offense to where we are relying on him to have an output of 18 ppg or so...then it becomes very impressive. But right now, as Dannie alluded to, that pressure of having to perform within a box of taking a certain amount of shots per game is not there yet, so until that happens, all bets are off and only time will tell.

By: tk76

tk76 — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:59:53 +0000

Good points Dannie. I'll comment more later... Briefle, its the 50% shooting that is so rare. Even if you drop to 17.5 ppg as your minimum, only 18 players 6'8 and under make the cut in the last 35 years! Per GameShooting 1 Charles Barkley* 2 Magic Johnson* 3 Adrian Dantley* 4 Julius Erving* 5 Alex English* 6 George Gervin* 7 Chris Mullin 8 Elton Brand 9 Marques Johnson 10 Walter Davis 11 Kiki Vandeweghe 12 Bernard King 13 Jamaal Wilkes 14 David Thompson* 15 Paul Westphal 16 Otis Birdsong 17 Rudy Tomjanovich 18 Doug Collins

By: Dannie

Dannie — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:28:50 +0000

TK76 - I see where you are going with it. But I have a rebuttal I'd like you to consider.

The reasons I don't think he will be a 19/20ppg career scorer when it's all said and done...

1. Not aggressive enough, so over his career I don't think he will take enough shots or get fouled enough to be a consistent 20ppg scorer

2. Unless he drastically improves his skill as he ages I think you could see a horrible decline in his game when his athletic ability is no longer a major advantage.

I actually see him becoming more of a 100% smallish power forward when he is older because I don't think he will ever develop elite perimeter skills (both shooting ability and handle) that could carry his game into the mid 30s as a SF when pure physical ability really starts to deteriorate. That means if he even does reach 20ppg average for a few seasons I think that run will be short.

3. He won't have enough high scoring seasons to to outweigh his early career and late career below 20ppg scoring seasons.

If you look at that list many of those guys were NBA scoring champs with a run of season where there were scoring 25+ points per game AND they scored a lot early in their career as well. Those help hold the average up when the numbers drop at the late stages of a career. Thad as the double whammy of having lower early career scoring average right now on top of what I expect to be low late career scoring averages.

There aren't very many Elton Brand or Marques Johnson type scorers who put up almost exactly 20 for 10+ years. Magic doesn't really fit with this group from a scoring perspective because he was a passer first. He could have easily scored 30ppg if he wanted to. The fact that he did score 20 while dishing at such a high rate suggests that.

But I understand where you are going. And I think Thad could be a 20ppg scorer IF he develops better perimeter offensive skills to go along with his size advantage in the post. Also you have to factor in how he would respond IF we were to keep him and move Iguodala and he becomes more of a focal point of the offense which directly translates into more of a focal point for the defense as well. Can he handle that added pressure mentally and physically?

Great debate.

By: Dave T

Dave T — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:04:26 +0000

How I see our players, if they all fulfilled their potential, as options on a contending team:

-Elton Brand – Strong 3rd option
-Andre Iguodala – 3rd option
-Thad Young – 3rd option (jury’s out on whether strong or weak)
-Mareese Speights – 2nd option (this is a long term projection 2-3 years from now after Brand’s contract is up)
-Lou Williams – 7th man…the guard that could have a Barbosa like effect and inject some speed, quickness and offense into the game.
-Rodney Carney – 7th – 8th man…the lesser James Posey / Bruce Bowen type of guy you’d want to be a defense / 3 point bomber that can bring athleticism in taking it to the rack as well.
-Jrue – ??? – Who knows. But from what I’ve seen, he’s an overhyped athlete to me that while he plays great defense, will not be our future PG. I think people viewed Antonio Daniels and Kenyon Dooling very similarly when they came out of college early “Wow, look at their height! What ATHLETES they are!!!” without taking into account that they really weren’t great PG’s that could run an offense full time, wrack of assists and get teammates involved. But, I hope Jrue proves me wrong, and I can’t wait to see more of him.

-Jason Smith – A guy that is a notch above Steven Hunter. aka: the “4th” big body to have in your frontcourt in case you need him, that doesn’t bring any huge skill or toughness to the table. Like, with the Nuggets, having their starting PF and C in K-Mart and Nene…their 6th man forward as Birdman…the Nuggets would want Jason Smith to be that “4th” guy in case someone goes down with injury.

By: tk76

tk76 — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:03:33 +0000

Sorry my post formatted badly (looked good when I posted it.)

Basically, those are the only 11 player who in the past 35 years have averaged 19pts, shooting 50% and 6′8 or under. I think Thad could end up on this list by the end of his career.

By: Dannie

Dannie — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:00:34 +0000

I just wrote this on Brain's post about Thad regarding his struggles.

I don't think it's the offense that is his problem. I think it's an adjustment he is still trying to make playing SF which he is doing a lot more than he ever has.

I think Thad is still getting to spots, but he isn't getting to them as cleanly as he has against slower, less athletic defenders.

That added pressure/contest along with him having to speed up his moves a bit are the contributing factors to his lower finishing rate AND the increased regularity of traveling calls.

His increased turnover rate can be directly attributed to more travel calls on his initial moves. He has to be quicker to get by SFs on the perimeter than he does PFs. He is trying to go quicker in games before his skills (handle and footwork) have caught up.

And that's on top of my belief that he's just soft in general and tends to avoid/shy away from contact.

He will need to adapt. He is the definition of a left-hand bandit. And if I were him I would watch some film of Ginobili the king of the left-hand bandits for how to adjust while playing with a less adroit off hand.

Ginobili is still much, much weaker going right BUT what he has done is go right and then find creative ways to get back left and middle to finish strong comfortably with his dominant scoring hand. That helps him tremendously on the perimeter too because he can mix up his moves more, confident he can return to his strong side for higher percentage finishes.

Hopefully Thad develop a better right hand but even if he doesn't he can be more effective if he takes some notes from Ginobili's offensive repertoire.