Sixers Progression

Everyone is pretty high off the 5-game winning streak the Sixers are on right now.  This is the type of play we expected the Sixers to start the season with.  I am looking at it as delayed stages.  They are behind the curve right now.  The way they have played the last 7 games is the type of progression that should have started much earlier.

Stages

Most people gave the Sixers a 15-20-game grace period to figure out the Brand transition.  I just thought that was too large a portion of the season.  Playoff positioning begins game one in my mind, and the Sixers don’t want to face Boston, Cleveland or Orlando in the first round.  That means they need to get to 4th or 5th in the conference to have a significantly better chance of getting out of the first round.  So I gave them 10 games to figure out the first two stages with the expectation that proceeding through the next couple stages would be at an accelerated level.  The rest is all about locking in an identity, a consistent style of play and learning what it takes to be a winner.  The stages…

1. Integrate Elton within the Sixers existing up-tempo style of play (still delayed)
2. Existing Sixers players learn to play their game and excel with Brand (legit low block player) in the line up (still delayed)
3. Lock in a consistent rotation where everyone has a realistic expectation of minutes and clearly knows their roles
4. Dominate weak teams
5. Bare minimum split against equal level opponents
6. Compete with the elite teams.  They don’t win, but they don’t get smashed either. (I hate this stage because I hate moral victories ,but for an up-and-coming team it’s part of the process I guess.)
7. Start winning some games against the elite teams
8. Become an elite team

Right now I think the Sixers are somewhere between 3 and 4. I still need to see them dominate the way they did last night against Portland more often.  They will get two chances in the next 4 games against the Knicks who are playing well but still are a sub par team. I think it is safe to assume they skipped the first two steps because of poor coaching and Brand going down.  Now the question is: can they reorder the stages to work Brand in without going backwards?

Making the Brand Comeback Work

Many people are really concerned about the expected return of Elton and how he will fit in Dileo’s winning formula.  Those concerns are real and understandable.  You see the team playing extremely well without Brand, and the first and easy conclusion many come to is pointing the finger at Brand like he was clearly the problem.  Elton Brand doesn’t fit.  The Sixers can’t run with Brand.  Miller and Iguodala can’t excel with Brand.  Lot’s of thoughts, lots of concerns.

The first issue for Dileo is minutes.  This is the least of my concerns personally, but none the less working Brand into the current rotation is something that must be done effectively.  Without thinking much about it I think some guys will lose some minutes, but it won’t be that drastic and will be fluid based on individual game situation. What I think will happen is guys will simply get minutes at different positions when Brand returns.

I was just about to go crazy figuring this out to the minute, but our friend over at the Depressed Fan already did.  Check out his playing time distribution with Brand.  Well done, Brian.

Production is the Real Concern

I am less concerned about minutes and more concerned about production. Guys are playing really well right now, and one wonders if this is because Brand is out or because they are just naturally progressing and hitting their stride.  How do you maximize the team’s production given how many minutes everyone will likely be playing with Brand back?  Let me repeat: how do you maximize THE TEAM’S production.  I think we tend to get caught up in how individual guys’ performance.  When at the end of the day the only thing that matters are team wins.  If that means some players’ scoring decreases a bit so be it. Not about the individual.

I think production will be based on ball and shot distribution.  A few things can happen with regard to this, but here’s how I think it should start.

The Sixers play how they are playing now, and Brand’s shot attempts are reduced a bit (14.4 per game, most on the team). This is more a product of the offense being more open as it is now and not forced through him in the post.  He will get some touches, but he will have to use his basketball IQ to get in scoring positions without having the ball on the block as much.

I wouldn’t worry to much about Iguodala or Andre Miller’s shot attempts.  Miller is actually shooting less in games without Brand (13FGA with vs. 12.5FGA without) and is doing a lot more of his scoring from the line.  I am really curious to see if he attempts more threes off kick-outs from Brand.  Part of the problem was Miller’s spacing when Brand posted up. He spotted up inside the arc; he will need to step back to create better floor spacing, and with his willingness and conscious decision to shoot the three, I think we will see that happen.

Iguodala is actually attempting only two more shots per game.  His improved scoring is more about better efficiency than more attempts.  Iguodala agrees, and so should you.  I don’t see why that wouldn’t remain the same as long as he keeps shooting the ball well and the Sixers keep running at a high rate.

My biggest question is where on the court does Brand spend the majority of his time?  Low post?  Mid post?  High post?  Short corner?  Out high setting screens?  I think this is important to think about.  With two real bigs on the floor it will be harder to play a 4 out style on offense which has helped to create more driving lanes.  The bonus though is Brand is a much better option to receive passes off that penetration than Sam.  So maybe the better question is how to keep Sam out of they way offensively?

This will have a lot to do with how Dileo integrates Brand offensively which to this point is still an unknown.  They’ve talked about how he is the perfect trailer on the break, yadda, yadda, yadda.  I really am not worried about that.  When they do have to play half court offense how do you develop continuity and consistency?  How do you space the floor with two big men? Our only basis for this is how Mo used Brand.  Which I think it’s safe to assume Dileo has some other (better?) ideas in mind.

Let’s hope his plan is sound and successful.

Over to you guys as usual.  With Brand possibly available tomorrow night against the Spurs what is going through you head?

January 15, 2009