To be blunt – NO.
But I’ve been reading in the comments on our blog, on other blogs and in the forums that the problem with the Sixers right now is their defense. Their defensive rotations have been “atrocious.” Their help defense has been late or completely lacking. They need to focus on defense. Etc., etc., etc.
Personally I don’t think they have been that bad. In fact I don’t think the Sixers overall defense has been bad at all. Since I don’t have access to the coaches film and I don’t have TIVO DVR to record every game so I can go back and watch again, the next best thing for me is looking at the numbers. What do they say explicitly and what inferences can we make from them using our own judgment.
Sixers Defensive Rankings:
- 5th in overall defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) – Also for more depth the Sixers are at 100.5 the 3rd place team is only at 100 even.
- 8th in points allowed per game (93.2)
- 10th in FG% defense
- 9th in 3pt% defense (how in the world could they be in the top 10 with “atrocious” defensive rotations? Luck?)
- 11th in eFG% defense
- 7th in opponents turnovers per game
- 7th in blocks per game
- 19th in steals per game
- 7th in defensive rebounds per game
- 13th in defensive rebounding % (percentage of available defensive rebounds grabbed)
- 14th in opponents offensive rebounds per game
- 6th in personal fouls committed
- 4th in opponents free throw attempts per game
- 3rd in defensive free throw factor (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
That puts the Sixers in the top 3rd of the league in 9 of 13 categories defensive categories and the sum of them all have the Sixers 5th in overall defense. Dave T, didn’t you say they should be 5-7 in this category? Looks like they already are through 15 games. Pretty good, right
Honestly the area I think they need to improve most that will have the greatest impact is defensive rebounding. The Sixers allow 11.2 offensive rebounds per game. They are to good of a rebounding team to for this to happen. Offensive rebounds also quickly inflate your defensive field goal %, 3pt %, and points allowed because the often lead to easy put backs or wide open perimeter shots because guys leak out and the defense isn’t set after a missed shot. I also like the fact that they play defense without fouling.
What are your thoughts on the Sixers defense having seen were they rank?
The common rebuttal to stats like those is “well I know what I see, I trust my eyes more than the numbers.” That is a fair argument, I guess. But you can’t see everything that happens on every play watching a game live. It would be an even better rebuttal if people’s eyes had the opportunity to review the game film multiple times.
But with that in mind for tonight’s clash with the Boston Celtics I am going to track uncontested shots allowed by the Sixers in the half court. Obviously this is up for interpretation. So help me out by writing what you think constitutes an uncontested shot.
As always food for thought.
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{ 25 comments… read them below or add one }
Uncontested shot? Subjective as you stated. My view: A shot in which a player is free of concern for block, alteration or any form of spring-and-release discomfort.
Dannie: I could not agree more. The offense is what is holding them back, not the defense. Could they be even better on D? Yes I think they have that potential, but overall they are playing winning D, however, not winning O.
And the big problem on O, is that Igoudala, Brand and Lou are all shooting horribly. In the case of Lou, I think it is that he is taking way too many jumpers. The same goes somewhat for Igoudala as well, but I think Brand is simply not making shots that are within his comfort zone. Hopefully, this past game against the Magic will be a catalyst going forward for, him.
The rebounding efficiency on the defensive end of the floor is only 13th in the league, and it’d be nice if it improved…how many offensive rebounds does Reggie Evans get off his own misses.
The ‘big problem’ with the offense is mo’s playbook – or the fact that there isn’t one – mo putting lou and willie on the floor at the same time which is just asinine – giving evans too many minutes and speights not enough minutes.
Mo doesn’t know how to manage a game.
Their offensive efficiency is 25th in the league.
As long as mo is the coach this will be a (barely) 500 teams that loses in the first round
The only part of their defense I’ve thought to be struggling so far is the steals. They are not getting in the lanes as good as last year and getting out on the break, which is why they are not scoring as much.
Even without the numbers I thought the rotations have been decent, they are closing out the 3 at times and have done a fair job trapping the pick and roll. The rebounding is surprising, that definitely needs to get shored up.
Should be a god game tonight, hopefully the right team shows up and they can squeeze out a win.
Lou, while flashing dynamic scoring ability, is essentially an out-of-control Franklin Edwards (whose contributing play I appreciated). Has a myopic approach. After 3 years of apprenticeship, shows very little understanding of the game. Don’t care how much he can monopolize ball and zig-zag to hoop or get off a right side shot, 6′1″ SGs have to show a consistent stroke and awareness of teammates as also FG capable or their proper place is the bench. Cheeks seems overly concerned with getting him going, presumably because when he’s jitterbugging in LouWorld, the pace picks up (something for which Cheeks, no master coach, has an affinity).
That made me laugh out loud.
I guess my posts over the last couple of days made is sound as though I thought our defense wasn’t playing well. That is not the case at all. I was really just trying to point out instances where I thought we had lapses that hurt us.
I agree that our overall defense has certainly been good enough to win games. I also agree that we are losing games on the offensive side of the ball. I mentioned a couple days ago that we out shot the Bobcats 81 to 62. Well, on Wednesday we out shot the Magic 81 to 68. This is a significant difference and it tells me that our defense is giving us every chance to win games but our offense isn’t doing enough with all these extra opportunities.
One more thing, which backs up Morty’s point about the poor shooting. Earlier in the season the first thing that would jump out at me was all the turnovers we were committing. However, lately our turnovers have come down. We committed only 12 turnovers against Charlotte and had 12 steals to their 20 turnovers and 7 steals. Against Orlando we had 14 turnovers and 7 steals to their 17 turnovers and 4 steals. Even though some of our turnovers have been killer, we are in fact taking better care of the basketball (and we are still getting a pretty good number of steals, Ryan). It really seems to come down to poor shooting (whether because of poor offensive sets, poor execution, poor shot selection, or the fact that we just can’t shoot).
Bski - I just thought there has been a lot of talk about the defense as an issue (not only on this blog) so I wanted to take a closer look. I actually think the defense as a whole has been overshadowed by all the losing and a little positive light needed to be shined on it.
Good idea, Dannie. Your thoroughness is appreciated.
Theo’s take:
http://www.pottsmerc.com/articles/2008/11/28/sports/srv0000004156112.txt
JJG – Great find. Looks to me like he is talking about “little things” which cost you games. Basically everything I was eluding to in my after-game post and comments. I also see a subtle calling out of Iguodala on that ridiculous turnover.
By they way did anyone see that John Salmon’s line on Wednesday?
Nice post Dannie.
For me, I’m concerned with the defense not because it’s bad right now (I’d say it’s mediocre…although I do think our defensive rotations suck on a regular basis. No stats to back this up, nor can they, but this is from eyeballing and seeing how slow it takes us to get out to shooters or to help out on drives in certain instances)…but because, given the parts of our team on offense (we have no go to guy, no offensive players with balls of steal that really can just take it to the other team [except maybe Lou])…our offense HAS to rely on us playing excellent defense game in and game to make up for our lack of shooting proficiency.
I have yet to see us assert ourselves as a fast pace run n gun team. This doesn’t mean we are not running…we certainly are, and are in the league leaders off fast break points scored. But I’m talking about something more…asserting our will, and personality, onto the other team. I see no reason why we shouldn’t be having our little offensive spurts ALL GAME. Obviously time and chemistry is a huge part of this…and I’d be fine with a lower FG%…but we are not acting like a team that “should” be winning games.
I’m very upset with our defense and fast break runs not because they are bad…but because our potential is exponentially higher. We have the individual defensive talent to be a team where the opposition is saying pregame: “!@#$, we’re playing the Sixers in two days, that’s going to be a long night.” Yet, when you look at us play, we are hesitant, not playing together as one unit on the defensive end, and there are countless plays where collectively the energy just doesn’t seem to be to the level we should.
I’m not arguing the statistics presented above…but I don’t see how anyone watching these games can be happy with our team, collective effort on that side of the floor. This should be a top 5 defensive team in the NBA. We should be causing more turnovers, pressuring the ball more, and be a headache for double teams with our opposition. Right now I think we’re playing way below our talent level and simply not showing what we’re capable with. I’m hoping with time this will steadily change.
Dannie Exactly - they add up, the missteps, one by one. And Theo’s not a rash or blustery speaker. Was politely referring to pudd’nheaded plays that accrue and are costly, minutes 1 through 48.
Great Salmons line. Missed it. Good for him! Thanks, Dannie.
To be a top 5 defensive team, it takes more than tilting the court by pressuring dribbler, overplaying lanes, denying passes, reaching/tipping and essentially betting that the opponent can’t handle it. That sort of play can get your running game ignited (and boost morale) but it’s impossible to sustain thoughout a full game. Good teams, like Utah and Boston, have to be stopped the old-fashioned way – straight up hard work, as long as it takes, individually and as a team. Too many Sixers defenders in such a challenging situation exert sporadically, stop motion or helping when some effort fails. Until the team takes ‘baskets against’ personally, they’ll remain out of top 5. Defensively, they have their moments,
along with offsetting lulls.
Dave T – First let me ask, what is a top 5 defensive team? You MUST quantify this some how, just saying it holds very little weight with me, so I need you to make me understand what you consider a top 5 defensive team.
The numbers say the Sixers are a top 5 defensive team now.
Opponents are committing 15.9 turnovers per game this season (15.7 last year – 1 behind the league leader) they are 1.6 behind the number one team. I think you are asking too much honestly.
I actually think the perception right now is that they aren’t creating enough turnovers (numbers say otherwise) because offensively they aren’t converting them in to points effectively.
Also, I think you are overvaluing guys individual defense a bit. We don’t have any defensive players of the year on this team. In fact only Theo has ever been on an all-defensive team (’99 and ‘04).
Thad is still developing defensively, shows signs of being very good as well as reasons why we need to remember he is still a second year player. I don’t expect his potential to be realized this season.
Brand has been strong and steady defensively. Sammy has been Sammy. Good a large portion of the time but still has his “we are playing basketball?” games.
Andre Miller is not good defensively in my opinion and for a team to be weak at the head of the defense is a great liability the rest of the players on the floor have to make up for.
Andre Iguodala showed great potential in his first few years, but as soon as AI left and his energy turned more to scoring the ball his defense has fell off in my opinion.
When we go to the bench I think it doesn’t get much better. Rush is weak, Lou is weak, Willie has been pretty good this season, Reggie is usually pretty good. I don’t even know if Donyell Marshall can play basketball because he doesn’t sniff the floor. And Ivey is suppose to be good but again he never gets on the court.
Because we don’t have elite defenders (IMO) the system must make them great. I think they play pretty good defense now but if we had a defensive specialist as a head coach or assistant coach they would be even better.
You’d think with Theo & Aaron McKie around that strong defensive principles and the carrying out would easily be promoted.
Poor one-on-one defenders – Miller, Williams. As Dannie said, if you have a sieve at the top, it’s tough. Goes to show you the great coaching of LB and the savvy and grit of the ‘01 players who covered for Iverson’s random defensive movements.
Dannie:
Sounds like different philosophies again! I think statistics analyzing defense are, in general, way off key, and it’s something that can’t be analyzed nearly as efficiently as other parts of the game. To me holding a team to a FG% is probably the most important, but even there an opposing can be just missing lots of open shots or layups that night, having nothing to do with the defense of the team they are playing.
I don’t mean to sound like an old school fossil from the 1800’s when I say this, but I think good old fashioned, eye balling the game provides a lot more explanation for a “good” vs. “bad” defensive team. I’ll try to explain why.
The reason I feel this way is because to me, and I’m sure others may differ with me here, successful defense should not be analyzed on how many points are scored, shooting %, etc. The true barometer is “how tough we made them work for the shot.” And there’s no way to statistically analyze that.
How many plays are there in a basketball game, especially at the NBA level, where you can play excellent defense on a position, and the player comes up with some wild, acrobatic play that goes in? And how many times a team play not so great defense, whether individual or in a team sense, but the offense just jacks up some horrendous shot that has a low % of going in in the first place? This happens not just sometimes, but often in the NBA, especially due to the more individual nature of the game, and number of isolation plays, as opposed to the college or international game. You add those types of plays off and that really skews a lot of defensive stats.
To me, the best bet is to literally analyze each play. If I’m a coach, I’d use extreme statistics that point out obvious flaws in how we’d play, but what really measures how well of team or individual defense you play is to park the butt in front of a screen, watch it on replay, and watch for:
a. How well the individual is guarding the ball. Is the individual buying ridiculous pump fakes or following the ball to much, or is he staying rooted in place and playing with his feet?
b. Does the individual defender have his hands up at the proper times, or are they too low?
c. Is the defender forcing the man into a particular direction…is he playing him too close, too far away, making the defender work, scanning the court to see what else is going on?
d. Are players B and C filling in quickly to help when player A gets burned on a drive?
e. Is player C rotating to the perimeter when the ball is swung weakside? Is he too late for a reason? Was he overplaying his man uneccessarily?
f. Is player D in the lane aware of player’s A and B defensive situation in the backcourt, or is he zoning out? Are the guards acting as one unit, playing near telepathically with the other and constantly shifting when one’s man makes a move, or are they each in their own little world?
g. Are the frontcourt players stepping out quickly and far enough to help the guards to fill seems? Do the frontcourt players have each other’s back right away, or is there a time delay and they aren’t following the ball?
h. Are we collectively fighting through screens? Going underneath too often? Switching too often? Guarding the pick n roll effectively, or is one player doing the job, but another is getting hosed?
These are the things that make good defense. If a team shows steady improvement in these areas, and gives a good effort 75% of the game, and shows the ability to understand these things, then this means the offense is truly being “worked” hard, and it is a good defensive effort. The reason I don’t like stats is because too often a team can exhibit the above traits…and the shot still goes in.
There are many losing games where a team played pretty good defense but there’s a loss, and many winning games that was won more on offense or lucky shots in the 4th quarter. That’s why, for me, it’s more important to simply closely analyze with eyeballing the above letter points, as opposed to evaluating a team’s defense through statistics.
Statistics also need to be thrown out the window a large majority of the time given the opposite team’s style. Defensive stats will be hugely effected if playing a run n gun team, vs. a half court team, vs. a jump shooting team, vs. a team that works more inside out due to their personnel. Not saying stats are important, but I think they are much more worthy on the offensive end.
All I’ll say is that the Sixers don’t have many “great” on ball defenders…but their starting five and several bench players are pretty much in the “solid” to “good” range. If that’s the case…it is a coach’s job to turn that into incredible team defense. Why do I say incredible? Because a coach SHOULD have expectations that high.
If Doc Rivers can get freaking Ray Allen and others that have not given a crap to play defense…and Popovich, or others, then my expectation is the same level to aspire to for a lesser team. I understand Mo is not the above coaches, but as fans, shouldn’t we be demanding that level of expectation from anyone dressing as coach walking our sidelines?
I think the low I.Q. of this team shows itself on both ends of the court. To me Iggy is better using his strength ,at the 3, then trying to guard quick 2 guards, he stands up to straight. L.Will. should be up on the ball, I don!t understand how Mo doesn!t get that in his head. Sammy, I hoped, would sit and watch film with Theo of Theo in his 1998 to 2001 years. Guys, how much do the pro!s actually work on individual defensive basics. It seemed to take Sam and Carney years to bend their knees and get low.
Dave T – There isn’t a difference in philosophy here. I said in the post watching games was a fair rebuttal to pure stats, but that’s only if you have access to game film where you can watch every play multiple times. When we are just watching a game live you don’t see everything that is going on. And most people only focus on the end result.
Trust me I know all about what coaches track in terms of defense. I had coaches that enlisted people just to count deflections, contested shots, how often players went under screens when the pre-game strategy was to fight over the top among other “extreme” stats. That is why I am paying particular attention to how the Sixers contest shots tonight.
The problem is one person can’t track all that during a live game. You can on a very cursory level but I argue stats are much more reliable and a better indicator than that very basic eye-balling. I watch the game deeply just like the next diehard, but I couple that with hardcore statistically measures as well.
Also, I gave you rankings based on not 1 game but 15 games worth of data. Sure a single game can be high or low but as the games increase and the data increases those stats and rankings become even more reliable and pretty much what they are a numerical depiction of what happened in the games and the season.
Also maybe we look at statistics differently. For example having a good FG% defense and 3pt% defense is a result of all of the individual and team defensive movements and actions you presented above.
The premise is simple: Over time if you don’t consistently contest shots, don’t fight through screens, don’t rotate to shooters well, don’t trap hard, don’t practice proper defensive positioning etc. you your resulting stat – FG% defense will be bad. Conversely if you do all those things well and often enough your resulting stat will be favorable. Those stats don’t just come out of thin air they are the result of what you did on the court over time.
Check out Basketball on Paper, by Dean Oliver. Great book on what stats mean, how to interpret them, decipher what they are really telling you about how a team is playing etc.
The problems with Lou Williams are that the sixers will not accept what he is and what he will never be. He’s a shooting guard, he’s not a point guard, he doesn’t have the natural instincts or court vision…he never will…he is what he is, and with willie green one of them is redundant (green mostly, since he shoots more, at a crappier percentage and can’t seem to draw a foul for his life) which is why they shouldn’t be on the floor at the same time.
The sixers best point guard is Andre Iguodala who has the instincts and maybe they should work with him to work on some things (cut down on the fancy behind the back stuff, make the simpler passes, he has the vision but sometimes tries for flash over substance) and give me a ’second’ back court of Iguodala and Williams…but never ever green and williams.
The sixers are mediocre this year, they were mediocre last year, and unless some significant roster improvements are made they’ll be mediocre next year without a point guard.
Dannie: Thanks for the thoughtful reply. That Dean Olliver book sounds interesting, I’ll have to check it out.
I think we are both agreeing on a lot of things here. I know that for me, it’s the “extreme defensive statistics” that I think do hold a whole lot more merit then general blanket ones. Like you said though, it’s not like any of us have the time, energy or money to have our own assistants checking for “contested shot %” or “help defenders filling to the proper spots%” or “proper screen coverage %”. General stats are and always have been a great way for we fans, casual or die hard, to just get a general sense of what’s going on, and to use as some kind of objective conversation piece to discuss.
It would be a very interesting study (and I’m sure professional stat geeks have done this on the pro and college levels) to make take a large pool of teams and compare the general stats like opponents ppg, opponents FG%, opponents 3 pt %, steals, blocks, etc…and then compare those types of stats to the more “extreme” defensive stats. Obviously, one would think, that when the extreme detailed stats showed solid %’s, this would trickle down into the general stats…but it would be interesting to see what kinds of gaps and difference ratios there would be, because I’m sure it would prove inconsistent at times.
I’m a big fan of reading books written by successful coaches at different levels, and reading about how Dean Smith handled this kind of stuff was fascinating. He was obsessed with tracking extreme stats, particularly “shots contested” on defense, and their own system for “proper shot taken” on offense, and he had his own little UNC statistical analysis team. He would then break down game tape on these UNC detailed stats, and quiz the team as a whole, and other times bring individuals with him, to go over the game tape and both point out his own thoughts literally shot by shot for an entire game.
He was always interested in seeing the differences in which individual players were able to see the statistical points he was trying to point out, and who disagreed, and Dean Smith developed this very improved way of mixing high level stats and intuitive coaching for analyzing his players roles, what they needed to learn to be a part of his system and more complete player,s and how to model this stuff into a whole.
I think the only real point I was trying to make amidst all my earlier babble was that right now, I find that our Sixers team is a perfect example of a team that is proving to be in the top 7-10 in many defensive statistical categories…when in fact, due to my own totally subjective “by eye” analysis of the criteria I look for (as written in my previous post), I notice a very distinct gap between the statistics and what I’m actually watching in their performance.
Again, I appreciate the thoughtful replies Dannie, thanks.