So I haven’t been giving the Sixers much attention lately because my focus has been on the NCAA tournament which I consider the best basketball of the year. Well things are going well there. We have a UNC vs. Nova Final Four. If I was wealthy I would be booking my flight, hotel and locking up tickets right now. Too bad reality sucks sometimes. I am second in my company bracket challenge with UNC as the winner, so good shape there. We don’t have games for a whole week. That means I can get back to some Sixers stuff for a bit.
Loss to Detroit Today
I watched most of the second half once the UNC game was in hand and was checking in periodically throughout the early part. At this stage of the season it’s pointless and unbearably redundant to break down what went wrong. It’s typically the same stuff we’ve beaten our heads against the wall with all season. Regardless there is a bigger matter to discuss.
Why doesn’t this team have a sense of urgency? Why don’t they show a killer instinct? I will make the assumption that Iguodala and Thad are going to be here for a while. Miller might be here another 2 or 3 years tops. Lou will be here. The cumulative of these players have yet to show a consistent killer instinct, sense of urgency or real winning attitude translated into their play to give me any confidence we can be a legit contender with this roster. That really scares me. Sure we’ve lost some games on buzzer beaters. But man at some point things need to start going the Sixers’ way. Better yet, they need to be more in control of these situations and execute in them effectively. We just haven’t seen much of that to this point from this roster.
Furthermore, what happened to the defense and rebounding down the stretch? 9 of the 14 games in March have resulted in their opponents scoring 100 or more points. Teams are scoring 100.8 per game and shooting 48.3% from the field in March. They are getting out-rebounded 40 to 37.4 in March. Where is the toughness and grit from a team fighting for playoff positioning?
Is it just youth? Well, certainly not for Miller. In his 5th year I don’t give Iguodala that pass. Lou is a dope in my opinion with no clue what selfless, winning team basketball looks or feels like. Thad has come on strong offensively as of late and at only 21 gets a pass.
We all want to think they can be a contender. We all want to have hope in this roster since it’s going to be here for a few years. But when have they really shown us they deserve that title (contender) with any consistency? They win a big game or two, then come right back and lose games and momentum. Then they suffer a bad loss and we are looking for them to bounce back, and they don’t finish off a game against a disoriented Detroit team only scoring 14 fourth quarter points. This has been point of contention and continues to be a growing concern for me with this squad.
Final 10 Games
- Atlanta
- Milwaukee
- Detroit
- @ New Jersey
- @ Charlotte
- @ Chicago
- Cleveland
- @Toronto
- Boston
- @ Cleveland
So they have 6 games against playoff teams. 1 game against the 9th seed who is only 2 games out. The combined winning percentage of their remaining opponents as of today is: .722. That is a pretty tough stretch even if you assume Cleveland will have nothing to play for. They have teams that will be scratching and clawing to get in or stay in the playoffs. Three teams looking to play spoiler and three games against elite squads.
The 4th seed is not even worth talking about being 5 games back. They are only a game and half back of Miami but they really need to make some magic happen or get a lot of help (Miami’s schedule is tough as well) to move up to 5th. Needless to say I am not confident. After the loss to Detroit they are now only a game and a half up on the Pistons. So here is my question for you. Would you rather play Orlando or Boston?
At this point it’s a toss up where those two teams will finish. Boston is only 1/2 game up on Orlando right now so they can flip flop at any time. But who would you rather see the Sixers face? Better who do you think we match up better against therefore giving us the best chance to make things interesting?
Sixers Fan Check In
How are you feeling right now about the squad? This is clearly not the same feeling we had last year at this time. Are you excited for the playoffs? Looking forward to the draft and off-season moves already?
look. everyone has known all season this team was not a championship contender, or even a conference finals contender. they are in a similar position as they were when Iverson first got into the playoffs & they upset the Magic as a 6 seed in ’99. people were ecstatic then, and properly viewed this team as a young squad building for the future. people are a bit more impatient these days. a lot of it has to do with all the money brand & iguodala are making, but if you take away the big contracts, this team is just as exciting.
the losses to charlotte & detroit are games i would not expect this same team to lose next season, when they legitimately should be contending for the conference. everything we are seeing now is all preparation for a year or 2 down the road. i know you don’t like to hear that, but the reality is Thad is only 20, Speights is a rookie, Lou is 22, and Iguodala who is about to enter his prime, is starting to show that killer instinct where you can count on him to win games in clutch situations. this team has a very promising future, but they are too young to win anything right now.
Mike, I agree with what you say but the inconsistancy in effort is what bothers me. Sammy being under the weather lately is really hurting this team on the boards and guys like W.Bynum,S.Blake and Felton shouldn!t be able to get wherever they want on the court. Maybe they click come playoff time like Nova has defensively in the tournament but if these games don!t get them going [5 seed?] than I don!t know if the playoffs will. I think Thad ,Iggy and L.Will.!s growth offensively recently may allow E.S. to make a change at the one over the summer because if his scoring is needed less a defensive minded p.g. may be the right move for this team.I think we will see much of the same for the end of the season and it probably doesn!t matter who we play in the playoffs because defensively we just can!t get it done.
Mike, I think the fanbase (which is smaller then when AI started out) is more focused on winning now because that was the direction the team took in signing Brand. When 2 of your 3 key payers entering the season are 33 and 30(now) its hard to say the team is just a young team building for the future. They were disappointing before Brand’s injury, and the season became pretty much a waste after it. At this point, Thad’s progression is the main bright spot.
right but brand isn’t playing.
and deepsixer, i think the inconsistency on defense is all the product of same thing, youth.
also, miller is pretty clearly hurt right now.
Mike – You bring up some good discussion points. I don’t completely agree with you, but it gives me an idea for another post to write today.
Part of it has to do with what you say, and how the team is being run don’t exactly jive…
i still think there’s an underlying problem, in that you can’t build for the present and the future at the same time. and i think stefanski is caught up in that dilemma right now.
I think Miller is wearing down again. It happened in last years playoff games. You could visibly see he was tired then and now. He’s played how many games in a row? His on the ball defense is extremely lacking but with a solid defensive center and power forward behind him it could make up for his inability. The Sixers don’t have that. They need a win Tuesday night bad. If they lose tomorrow it could spin out of control. Maybe they should start Lou for a few games give Miller some time to rest his legs. I would consider making Iggy point forward and play Lou at the 2 spot. Willie G really does nothing for me.
Detroit is Cleveland without the glitter. [anonymous]
Way to go, Richard “the hard hat” of Coatesville. Nice job, Tayshaun of reknown skill and inner fire. A tip of the cap to AI of grander times and subordinate role. Maligned, serviceable Kwame showed up to play (more than can be said of Dalembert). Will Bynum rose to shoot from obscurity. Stuckey put “Pops” Miller in a jam again. McDyess filled in some gaps.
Typical no-frills effort by Pistons. Basic basketball. 24 assists on 38 baskets. 7 different players taking between 6-13 shots. Strong 2nd half D – 39 points allowed. Set against the ‘always ready to gloat and preen’ immature Sixers. (Slow the pace, make ‘em think the game and you’re halfway home to a victory – as last 2 have shown.) Saturday’s return bout at Wachovia Center will display antsy “red-faced” Sixers in jump mode. At least for awhile. 37-35, 16th in the league.
Someday we’ll look back on this and plow into a parked car.
Last summer when I was In Greece I was bragging about our defense. I was telling tales of how it would be the best in the league this season. Guess I was wrong on that one huh.
Andre Miller needs to go! He is a good player but he glitches us up on 2 fronts. His D is pathetic, and he has zero range. Yesterday with Thad leading a fast break he kicked it out to Miller who was wide open on the 3pt line, miller just waited to set up the half court offense. Yeah I know he didn’t take it because he can’t make it. That’s a problem.
We are mediocre with him so worst case we could be mediocre without him.
Lou W. sucks and also needs to go, both of these were part of my Nate Robinson plan.
Playoffs? Is that Jim Mora talking? Yeah I am pumped to watch us most probably lose in 5 games in the first round. Maybe we could stretch it to 6 or 7 games.
The real problem is that I don’t have any confidence in Ed Stefanski to fix this thing. Instead of trading away Korver or Carney he should have gotten rid of Willie or Evans. The Korver trade really hurt us, and as a G.M. he should have seen that coming.
On a final note, the half court offense should be run through My boy Thad. The most talented player on the team today, tommorow, and for the next 15 years.
The Sixers didn’t practice today. Dalembert (strained right calf) is still listed as day-to-day.
Sorry I haven’t been involved lately, but my youngest sister Tammy died May 21 of complications from aortic valve replacement surgery. She was 43. It’s kept my family very busy (service was Friday).
Here is a great Thad article.
http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2009/03/29/sports/doc49cf4d8da37e4471790606.txt
TOM…….I send out my deepest sympathies to you and your family. Sorry to hear about your loss.
Reggie Evans knows (along with the rest of us) ya can’t buffalo legit inside players. As pushy and physical as he plays, he’s ”theatrical” around the rim with the ball in his hands and after each call that doesn’t go his way. I’ve heard it floweringly said by Zumoff that you can’t
quantify his impact. Try: 13.5 min, 2.9 pts, 4.3 rbs, .3 A, .438 FG%, .603 FT% - he’s usually involved, but, predominantly, he stinks as an NBA forward. Sixers need to go in a new direction there.
As far as the Sixers, I’ve talked about their poor perimeter D, poor perimeter shooting, etc….as much as I care to this season. What I am most interested in now is to watch what Stefanski does with this roster in the off season. He had better start dancing double-time, IMO.
What Stefanski does as far as selecting a coach, the draft, making trades, signing free agents, etc….should give us answers to questions we have been raising all season long. Here’s to hoping that he is every bit as sharp as we were told he is, because we need him to do some good work.
Oh yeah, regarding the playoffs. IF we make it, I’d rather see us play Boston, not Orlando. I just think we match up better against the Celts, for whatever it’s worth.
To Tom Moore
This World is not Conclusion.
A Species stands beyond -
Invisible, as Music -
But positive, as Sound.
- Emily Dickinson
“We grieve most what we have loved best.”
My sympathy to you.
Composure– those three technicals cost us and we lost our mindframe out there. Detroit played DE-TROIT basketball.
To the Pistons credit, they hit some tough shots with the shotclock winding down and those guards are something. Normally, three point defense would be the typical reason why we lose games, but that was not the case. It was maintaining the scrapiness and trying to play through the no-calls.
Unlike the previous two games, where we played only 2 good quarters, I am impressed with the competitive level for 3.5 quarters, BUT we must play all 4 quarters to make it a guaranteed victory!
Andre Iguodala is at his BEST when he plays at that aggresive level and looks for his offense early! Thad has been amazingly consistent and somewhat unstoppable! Those were big pluses there.
Also, how can the Sixers ever behead a “Prince”? He has been a thorn on the Sixers side for a long time, since his rookie year. We focus heavily on Iverson, Hamilton, and Wallace, but he gets the most when facing us. We must stop/slow Prince if we want to win the season series. I think we will return the favor on Saturday and beat the Pistons,with a large Wachovia crowd behind us!
Dalembert’s rebounding and shotblocking were missed and there is so much Ratliff can do. But we look AWFUL without our shotblockers in a game (Dalembert, Ratliff, and even Brand–Big 3 of Shotblocking).
Also, the team MUST help Donyell and not put him on a lone island and make him take tough shots. We have to move the ball more and look for better looks for him. He has been taking tougher shots with the shotclock winding down and with a hand in his face. When he is in a rhythm after hitting one or two open shots, he can then hit those contested shots.
Is it me, or is Andre Miller’s calf injury starting to bother him? He has been missing the layups, he would usually make. But he is a warrior regardless.
With the Hawks victory over the Lakers yesterday, it most likely eliminates the idea of obtaining the 4th seed regardless of our final regular season matchup and season series with Atlanta. Only the 5th seed is still available for grabs! Miami hosts Orlando today and they go to Dallas on Wednesday.
The Sixers MUST maintain their competitive spirit no matter who we are playing because funny things have happened before. These teams that are below us in the standings are hungry as hell and there are no cupcakes out there the last 10 games.
Between Orlando or Boston, I would choose Boston. Garnett’s injury is still nagging him a bit. The Sixers played a close game at home, when Garnett did not play. His impact on both ends of the floor is huge and if he is not 100%, who knows. I’m not saying we would win the series, but we could make it interesting.
Also, Reggie’s intensity would convert and uplift the team’s energy level. Energy and intensity are things you need in the playoffs.
We must defend the perimeter (for all quarters in the game) and play through the no-calls because playoff basketball is INTENSE!
But I would much rather face the Hawks and so would the world as whole. Two uptempo teams can equal high ratings. Please NBA, Sixers, Hawks, make it happen!!
GO SIXERS!! STAY THE COURSE AND AIM HIGHER!!
Tom my deepest condolences to you and your family. Your possibly the only person in the media that I don’t hate, so I wish you well.
Mike: I don’t really buy “youth” as a reason for our defensive inconsistency. I think cohesive offense, basketball IQ, mental mistakes…these are things that have to do with youth. But not defense so much, and certainly not hustle. I could probably name 25 college players and teams off the top of my head that are more active defensively, better coached, and more ready and willing to REALLY defend. If we can hold teams on the lower level to that standard, why not our own, and what does age have to do with it?
Dannie makes the perfect point: this is not as “young” a team as we think. It is a mix of youth, 24-27 veterans, and older vets in the league. This begs the question of why we aren’t hustling and playing defense. IMO, it’s because we have no true leaders, no workhorses, no muscle/fire guys on the team. We have no enforcers to line up the troops and get guys in place. We lack the alpha personalities for that right now…and sorry Iguodala, no matter how much you improve your game, and get lucky on last shot heaving threes that you cant hit when wide open the rest of the game…you are not that.
This team has very good, not great, but very good talent…that is not being maximized because of a lack of leadership, skill, and basketball IQ. We need a change of culture, and someone that demands the respect of the players. If Brand, Iguodala and A-Miller are your “alpha” leaders and personalities…that ain’t going to get it done. They are great lead by example guys, but being professional is one thing…we have no one to hold each other accountable.
We are quite possibly the best collection of 2nd, 3rd and 4th options in the NBA…that are all assembled on one team. Problem is, neither our player nor coach can provide that spark the 1st option should be…and I mean that in both a basketball, and personality sense.
Tom- My condolences go out to you and your family! Thank you for keeping things real!
Hopefully, the Sixers can close this season out in style and do it for your family! Stay strong, my friend!
Thanks a lot, you guys. I appreciate it.
Did anyone think that Richard Hamilton’s foot was on the line when he caught that pass near the end of the game? It was very close, but Donyell Marshall who was on the bench was up screaming and pointing at the baseline when he saw it. And of course Rip hit the clutch midrange jumpshot to barely beat the shot clock. Rip is the best midrange jumpshooter in the league.
DaveT: not sure what your def. of “alpha personality” is, but for what it’s worth, Iguodala is the only one on the team who seems to get on (or, more benignly, communicate with) his teammates when they’ve missed a defensive assignment. And I’m pretty sure he’s been criticized for doing it, here as much as elsewhere (or even more so, given how disliked he is here), so it’s a no-win situation.
But I want to address this myth that Iguodala gets “lucky” “heaving threes” at the ends of games. If you and others here can get past your dislike of Iguodala and look at his results this season objectively, you’d see he is one of the best “finishers” in the NBA. TrueHoop just posted some great stats: http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-38-372/The-End-of-Quarter-Killers.html. Iguodala is 4th in the NBA on end-of-quarter points, and his points per play are much higher than Wade, LeBron, and Kobe, to name three players you might think live for those moments. If you want to say that Iguodala floats through stretches of games more than he should, you’d get no argument from me. But if you call his end-of-game shots “lucky heaves,” you’re just ignoring the facts.
yea the thing that has impressed me most about the improvements in iguodala’s game, is the fact that no matter how he shoots the first 3 quarters, he nails just about every huge shot in the 4th when his team absolutely must score. you cannot deny that he has become a killer in clutch situations. he’s become one of just a handful of players in the league that you want shooting the ball in crunch time. the first couple times it happened i thought it was luck, but he has proven over & over again that he is a clutch player.
Since we are talking “facts” I gotta weigh in here. First off here are more appropriate numbers if we are talking “clutch”. Here are Iguodala’s numbers broken out even further. End of quarters 1-3 muddy TrueHoops numbers in terms of clutch scoring evaluation. You can’t consider making shots at the end early quarters clutch situations – can you? If so we just have a difference in philosophy. Not to say it isn’t important because it is, but it’s not under the category of clutch in my mind.
Let’s take a look at what Iguodala’s numbers say and suggest.
When he shoots threes late and it happens to go in the numbers suggests that’s a pretty lucky occurrence (16.7% 3PT% in late game situations).
When he get’s past the arc he is much better putting the ball in the whole (47.7% overall FG% in late game situations).
Only 35% on jump shots which represent 62% of his late game shot attempts.
He is good at the line (81%), but not a killer like Kobe, Chris Paul, Brandon Roy, Ginobili, Johnson who are 89% or better guys among others.
16 assists vs. 12 turnovers in late game situations 1.33 ast/to ratio (wish they had # of late game possessions). Since they don’t lets just say there were 108 times Dala had the ball in late game situations (80 FGA, 16 ast, 12 TO, 6 oboards) That would translate to a ~10.5% turnover rate.
But the most interesting number to think about is 48%
48% of his made field goals are assisted. More details…
His higher percentage shots (inside shots) represent 38% of his shot attempts, he converts at a 72% FG percentage and 67% of those made field goals are assisted.
While his jump shots represent 62% of his shots, 23% assisted and 35% FG percentage.
Now he normally takes a lot of jumpers 64% of his shots. But overall 45% of them are assisted.
What does it all mean?
A few quick thoughts to ponder:
He isn’t bad but let’s not get carried away and start calling him a killer just yet.
Good news and one half of the wishbone: The Magic beat the Heat!!
One song to keep in mind for the Sixers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJprEyXMrIk&feature=related
Here’s a clue: After the name of the song, the rock group BTO says, “Everyday”! But I’m sure you guys get the point and message. More importantly, I hope our team does!
GO SIXERS!! Thank You Mark Price for improving Thad’s jump shot!! There is only one Hawk nation in Philly, so beat those other Hawks!!
Dannie: good analysis re: Iguodala’s clutch play, but the one important fact you leave out is that those stats include his horrible start to the season. Since the new year, I can only think of one must-score end-game situation (margin of 2 or less with under a minute to go) where Iguodala failed to come through (vs. Orlando), and there are at least 6 or 7 games where he has come through (Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Celtics, Grizzlies, Nets, Lakers, Blazers) and several others where he’s hit important shots down the stretch to help win games (Bucks, Grizzlies, Bulls). And — look it up — zero turnovers in must-score situtations since the Nuggets game. Conclusion: for a very large portion of the season, he’s been exceptionally good at closing games.
Question guys, by next year, if I had to bet my house on an end of game situation, I would prefer Thad over Iggy because of his ability to hit from outside on a catch and shoot but, and this is a big but, how does Thad do when he is guarded by the opposing 3!s next year instead of the more lumbering 4!s and will his quickness still be a big advantage like it is now.
DiLeo said Monday that Miller’s strained right calf will continue to nag him, but that Miller should be fine.
Miller’s performance in Friday’s home loss to the Bobcats may have been his worst of the season — 2-for-11 shooting, seven points with three assists and five turnovers.
“He says he’s OK,” DiLeo said. “That calf injury will be a little bit of a nagging thing. The Charlotte game was not a typical Andre Miller game. He was better (vs. Detroit). Over 82 games, everyone has games like that. It’s nothing to be alarmed about.”
Tom, my prayers are with your family.
Guest – I don’t think so. The numbers are season numbers meaning they include all games. Nothing left out. Also that isn’t an important fact at all – at least to me. It’s a justification in support of Iguodala.
These are season long numbers. The biggest sample size we can take for this year. They are fair and to my knowledge accurate. Those early games count as 1 win and 1 loss just like the games after the New Year do.
You seem to be looking for any reason to pump Iguodala up and that is your prerogative. Not exactly mine.
It’s easy to ignore those early games when he played horrible and just look at these games when he played well but then we are giving an incomplete evaluation. Those early games matter and count the same as the Lakers game and the game tonight. 1 win or 1 loss in the standings What I presented was a snapshot of this season to date. It is what it is.
Matter of fact your point only serves to reinforces the problem with this team and it’s players as a whole – Inconsistency.
Tom – Condolences to you and your family. I can’t even believe you are still dedicating much time right now to the Sixers, but I guess it helps occupy the mind.
Tom: pls. accept my condolences.
Dannie: i think what Guest was trying to jump on is the fact that he seems to be developing that knack for crunch time play. emphasis on developing. It been showing growth of late so the stats would just confuse you.
Guest: let it be noted that he still has a long way to go still.
on Sixers 3X: who knows what it is plagues the Sixers but I’d start with the coaching. The Sixers have some fundamentally BAD HABITS that they cant seem to get rid of; help defense, switching screens, not boxing out the opposing players, excess dribbling, congesting the lanes, mental lapses in whole quarters of play etc. If they are still young, you hope the right coach can fix that. for the rest its just personnel issues. But i’m always a supporter of the wait and see approach. Youth has a penchant for the unexpected so I will see what happens. Look at Thad, look at what Speights has, Iguodala continues to grow, the future is there, Ed just has to make it start now. New Coach is solution #1.
on Iguodala: Its kinda stupid how these last two losses can be equated to being unable to grab a few key defensive rebounds. The detroit game was in the 4th quarter when i started watching. they took twice and many shots as us, grabbed bout half a dozen offensive rebounds. We played solid defense on every 20 seconds and the last 4 was a gotcha moment where everyone froze. It was unbelievably stupid, I turned off the game in disgust. That said, on most shots that were taken, Iguodala was pressed up to his man, faithfully guarding the glass for Evans to grab the rebound. That says a lot to me. Sure its not enough to justify the mammoth contract but I wont dog on him anymore. He is the smartest of a very dumb bunch. lets hope youth is all it is.
Jkay - That’s fair.
Let me ask this though… Is it really showing a knack or simply inconsistency and up and down performance?
For example let’s say the playoffs come and he looks like Iguodala vs. Detroit last year? Or not even that bad, but simply plays well but not in the clutch? Or next season comes and he looks horrible again out the gate?
I would tend to believe that is simply inconsistency and what he has done in a number of games since the New Year is nothing more than the tip of the peaks and valleys that exemplify inconsistency.
This has been my point of emphasis that I think many simply gloss over. It’s why I don’t get overly excited when they make a run whereas others go crazy like they are contenders after one 8-2 stretch.
Inconsistency isn’t just poor play, it also consist of good play as well. Understanding that allows you not to get caught up in fool’s gold of a hot streak by trying to extrapolate it out before actual results tell the story. We see it time and time again haven’t we?
Great performance, Terrible performance, Good performance. Good performance, good performance, Great performance (uh oh people are getting excited), mediocre performance, bad performance. That is inconsistency.
All I am saying from my perspective I am waiting for this team to play a long stretch of good-to-excellent complete games. I am talking at least half to 3/4 of a season. If we get that their record will speak for itself, just like their 37-35 record tells the story now.
Has Ty lawson played himself out of our draft range? I am cooling on my Greek countrymen Calathes because i’m not sold on his defense.
Lawson
Price
Ellington as of today
Dannie: When the playoffs come, my humility to wager, Iguodala will NOT cringe come crunch time…….I hoped to sound more confident but thats all I got.
Can Iggy play the sg position? I love a front court of Thad and Brand.
Especially with Thad’s game taking off, now Brand doesn’t need to score 20 pts a game.
Can Iggy play the 2? Because if it’s either him or Thad then it’s bye bye Iggy for me. Any thoughts?
Greek, my thoughts on Lawson, what DOES it take to get him. If we had a resume for our future p.g. it would be a]hit the 3 b]good on the ball defender c] be able to push the ball and play uptempo; and than a picture of T.Lawson. Again, what will it take because the price is going up. As far as Calathes, he could come in and take an expanded Ivey role of 1,2, and sometimes 3 with his height,[6!6"] but athletism, hopefully average at least, to me is the key.As far as Iggy at the 2, the more Thad can hit the jumper the easier that is to answer, as long as one of our starting swing men can hit a J and we get a bench guy to take Willie!s minutes we should be okay if we look at Marshall!s effect this year.I personally would give up Spieghts and this year!s #1 for N.Carolina!s starting backcourt if it could be done, but would you?
Dannie - far from trying pump up Iguodala at any opportunity, I just want to bring balance to what is an overwhelmingly negative portrait of his play on this site (because my sense is that you and others would bring him down at any opportunity). And while your point about the whole season counting the same is valid, you would also have to admit that recent performance is more relevant to his current and future play. With regard to consistency — I assume we’re still talking about crunchtime play here, not overall play — he’s been extremely consistent over the last three months, which is a large enough sample size that you can’t (or at least shouldn’t) just wave it off as a momentary peak. The area where I think Iguodala definitely could be more consistent is during those stretches earlier in the game when the team has difficulty scoring and the other team is making a run — he isn’t always aggressive enough about “taking over” in those situations, often deferring to LouWil or Miller. But overall consistency isn’t what we were discussing originally.
Suede I am in total agreement with you. Speights and the number one for Lawson and Ellington? I have to say it’s fair, although I don’t want to part with Speights. The sixers have done a horrible job developing this kid. They NEVER post him up, or when he does post up they don’t throw it in. That’s why whenever he gets the ball on the perimeter he chucks it up. He has a good hook shot with both hands, its just a shame that he isn’t given the opportunity to show it off.
But like I said, I do agree with your get Lawson at almost any cost decree.
I want to first say I like Iggy and his game. I think because of his contract newly signed he gets more criticsm then warranted. Sure guys like Kobe, Lebron, Wade make the kind of money he does and we wonder why he isn’t the same caliber of player. Well he is the best player on THIS team. That does account for something. Everyone isn’t wade, lebron or kobe.
Iggy does rebound very well and is a willing rebounder for his position (2, or 3 spot). He is a very good on the ball defender, and one of the most explosive finishers in the game. He does have a few deficiencies, such as early game free throw shooting, poor passing at crucial moments of the game and lack of consistent jump shot. However overall the kid is nice. Will he ever live up to that money, probably not. I just like the fact he is on this team and not anywhere else. You never hear about him in the news drinking, partying, trouble with the law. That’s a great thing in today’s sporting world, considering he is the face of this franchise. His game has grown a lot. Iggy and Thad, the future looks bright.
My take On Iggy
In the beginning I was down on him because of his poor play. But he has one me over, but like I said if he can’t play the SG position then he needs to go.
Guest – I don’t really have a problem with Iguodala as you think. When he plays well I am happy, when he doesn’t I am not. It’s really that simple. Some guys I would give a pass to for subpar games on occasion because of the immense contributions they make in the grand scheme of things. The Sixers don’t have one of those players in my opinion at the moment (i.e Paul, James, Wade, Bryant, Duncan etc. etc.)
I thought he got overpaid, yes but not by that much and my disdain was more about the position the salary very well may put the Sixers in going forward in terms of improving the roster.
He certainly is far from my personal favorite player, but I think he is good. But that is were I stop with it (for now) – good. I don’t think he (or anyone else on the roster) is Great and I am not sure he (or anyone on the roster) will ever become great.
I really only commented specifically to you on this point because I thought you were misrepresenting the meaning of the stats you pulled from TrueHoop as well as a few statements:
The facts you pointed to didn’t only consist of end-of-game shots so using them to support your statement “one of the best ‘finishers’ in the NBA” didn’t hold for me based on what you brought to the table.
What I did do was present the clutch numbers for the season that were available as objectively as I could. The numbers kind of are the numbers when presented on their own. My analysis of the numbers have much more of my own opinion intertwined but even looking back at what I wrote now would you say that it really wasn’t objective?
If I had the ability to break down the numbers more based on say month for example I would have presented that as well so we can see a flow as the season went on.
Looking at his numbers from last year he was better than this season. And from the season before that not so much.
My point remains, he isn’t bad (like many think). He is pretty good (ranks 21st in points scored per 48 minutes of clutch time) but he also isn’t a killer either (like some people are anointing him).
To address a couple of your direct questions/points. I didn’t waive it off as a momentary peak (yet), I said it’s certainly isn’t out of the realm of possibility to think it could be and only time will really tell.
About recent play being more relevant to future play. Umm yes, no, it depends. Let me first ask this would you still believe that if he was playing horribly right now?
I actually prefer to take all his numbers from all seasons on a per minute basis to normalize the time when he wasn’t playing or producing as much per game with maybe a small weighting increase on recent performance. And for me recent performance would be based on seasons. For example this season would weigh more than last season. Last season would weigh more than the 2007 season etc etc. This works for both players who are hot right now and players who are uncharacteristically cold right now as well.
Guys get hot and cold and those streaks can last as little as a few games and as much as a couple months which is why I prefer whole seasons as a predictor of how a guy will perform in the future. That’s my take on it.
Dannie, question for you; Iggy to me is the better player of he and Thad, yet Thad , I believe will be a more natural scorer. Is a Pippen type a more valuable piece to a championship team than, say, a B.King or Dantley type. And I am not saying either has reached those levels yet but if you are starting a team and they were your choices how would you start.
Mike brings up a lot of interesting points. In fact, tonight’s opponent, the Atlanta Hawks are no different. The Hawks are a young team with their share of inconsistencies over the past years, then they started learning from their mistakes and played through their mistakes resulting in more wins (and a trip to the playoffs for an exciting 7 game series with the Celtics). This year, with the exception of losing Childress and small additions of Mo Evans & Flip Murray, the Hawks are basically the same team with more experience. Last season, only Bibby and Johnson had real, major playoff experience, while the others had no playoff experience. The Hawks tasted the playoffs and enjoyed every moment of that 7 game series–they want more. Ric Sund is their new GM, after many years of Billy Knight (another medieval Billy). They also hired Mark Price as their shooting consultant and their three point percentage has improved and is now present. Last year, they were slightly better than the Sixers. This year, waay better percentage. People, here and around the NBA, did not expect the Hawks to return for the playoffs for some reason. (Maybe they were waiting for the Hawks to match any of Smith’s offers.)
However, what makes the Hawks (still a pretender) is their road record. If they can improve their road record and get better depth, they could be contender material in the East. The Hawks would much rather have our road record and our deeper bench, then it would make things a little more interesting for them.
If based on the Hawks blueprint (of last year and this year), the Sixers could follow that trend of possible success. Consistency and chemistry are key. Normally, those teams excel early in the season and early success can really boost up your record. Lou and the Andres must get off to better starts early in the season and Sammy must avoid missing a lot of preseason games if possible. Add a healthy Elton Brand and Jason Smith and your frontcourt will be much deeper and our rebounding will not be subpar like our previous two games. I still have faith in Ed Stefanski (believe me it is better than Billy King). The big question will be about Andre Miller. Then we need that quality SG, who can play starter’s minutes and have Willie come off the bench and play fewer minutes for both ends of efficiency. (Anthony Parker would be my ideal choice!) Theo Ratliff and Donyell Marshall have been great vets for us. Royal Ivey is perhaps our best defender on the team. And if possible, a backup for Iggy would be great, otherwise we are a small,short team.
Well, another 3 game homestand! The last three game homestand, we had, we went 3-0 and then went 7-3 (from 3/11 - 3/27) . We need to go 6-4 or better these final 10 games if we want to improve our positioning. There are no cupcakes–we must avoid a lot of clunkers. The very least you can allow is one clunker, but let’s avoid any and treat these ten games like a playoff series. And we are on NATIONAL TV in this final stretch, so let’s look great on the spotlight!!
4/4 v.s Detroit 3 PM ESPN
4/9 @ Chicago 8PM TNT
4/12 @ Toronto 6PM NBATV
4/14 v.s Boston 8PM TNT
GO SIXERS!! BEAT THOSE HAWKS!!
Suede – Tough question to answer because the way my basketball brain works. If I am starting a team I want a star or at the very least the best all-around player I can get first (hopefully with at least one dominant trait he excels at whether it be scoring, playmaking, defense etc) and I then fill in around that guy.
If you look at many of the really good teams look at how they were assembled. Dominant player who is then surrounded by complimentary players. Typically you complimentary guys who can make open shots because they will likely get a lot of them.
The other question is, am I getting this guy to start a team that is preparing to win now or win later. If I am looking to win immediately I probably take Iguodala if I have some time I take Thad.
While I agree Thad looks to be the more natural scorer, I also think he could work up to the versatility of Iguodala as well. I mean at the small forward Thad can be a decent to good rebounder. A very good defender. And adequate passer.
In the end I probably take Thad because I think he will be a good overall player but also very well may have that one dominant trait he excel at (scoring efficiently).
Greek, I think you are willing to give away Speights way too easily. I would only trade him for a good established player, not an undersized college PG.
Nobody knows what will happen, but Speights could develop into a 20pt/9reb/2 bl PF who can run and hot jumpers out to the 3 pt line. I sure hope they don’t trade him away.
BTW, those numbers are about what he’d average right now extrapolated to 36 minutes. Sure he could not do that now, but he is still a rookie.
Thad eventually will have less holes in his game than Iguodala, and he will be a prototype 3 who will be a mismatch every night (he is now according to Michael Curry, who called him undefendable.)
Iguodala might end up the better pro (hard to say) but it probably is easier to plag Thad into any line-up since he can shoot and does not have to have the ball as much as Iguodala to score.
That said, I’ll keep them both and pair them with a good defensive PG who can shoot (and get out of the way.) Unless your PG can’t shoot, iguodala and Thad can really complement each other well, and end up the best SG/SF in the NBA over the next 5-8 years. Akin to Carter/Jefferson in their prime, but with a better attitude than Carter had.
The Hawks do not want to face the Sixers in the playoffs! Let’s give that fear with a demonstration tonight. We have jumped on them early, it is a matter of maintaining the rest of the game and containing their backcourt down the stretch.
Get this, there are rumors about Mike Fratello wanting to coach again!
http://www.news-herald.com/articles/2009/03/29/sports/nh683279.txt
Dannie - it’s true I was mixing in end-of-quarter results when disputing the “lucky heaves” comment, because Iguodala has scored a bunch of 3′s at the ends of quarters. I do think those plays are relevant to the “lucky heaves” question, because most of those come on isolation plays. However, my “excellent finisher” description comes not from the truehoop stats but from my own personal recollection of his play in crunchtime over the last three months. I haven’t seen you or anyone else produce any evidence that his crunchtime play has been anything short of “excellent” over that time period. If three months is not enough for you and you’d rather wait to see how he performs going forward, that’s fair enough.
Regarding your analysis, though, the one glaring omission in a lot of it is free throws attempted. For example, jump shots might be 62% of his field goal attempts, but they aren’t 62% of his “shot possessions.” Add the 48 free throw attempts (24 possessions – leave out any and-ones for now) to the 80 FG attempts, and the jump shot percentage becomes a more reasonable 48%. I’m assuming almost all the free throws are a result of penetrations (a few may be the result of intentional fouls). On end-of-game possessions, fouls drawn (and free throws made) are just as important as field goals made, as we saw in the Blazer game.
Now, over the course of the season, Miller has been almost as good as Iguodala, but I’m almost positive over the the last three months Iguodala has been better. The other interesting fact is that if you sort the clutch stats by +/-, the only players above the Sixer trio of Miller/Iguodala/Young are players from the top 3-5 teams in the league (obviously, there is a lot of overlap in +/- stats). As the Sixers are only about 16th overall, their clutch play is better than their overall play — a credit mainly to Iguodala and Miller.
TK76
I don’t want to trade Speights at all, suede proposed the deal for the starting backcourt of UNC for speights and a number 1. Besides Thad and maybes Speights everyone should be available in my eyes.
Guest – In the top 21 clutch scorers (Dala is 21st) he ranks 14th in FTA per 48 minutes of clutch time. So again he is OK at it not excellent comparatively. I left it out because he wasn’t great at getting to the line per 48 minutes or horrible at it.
Even with the number coming down from 62% to ~48% (I think there is a much bigger question of the type of fouls – I don’t assume all on penetration than you make it out to be) he still takes a lot of jumpers in clutch situations while shooting rather poorly doing so.
My issue is more with shot selection than anything else. The deep jumpers and threes very well can be looked at as “lucky if they go in heaves” based on his shooting %s.
Take the ball to the hole while not turning it over and there really isn’t any problem at all with him having the ball at the end. OR better stated – play to your strengths. Going to the hole gives you three winnings situations (score, get fouled and dish for an assist) the jumpers typically only give you one that is where my frustration with his offensive game is. That is until he proves his jumper is a higher % shot for him.
Dannie – okay, I just tabulated some Iguodala stats since January. I used a more restrictive definition of crunchtime than 82games, to cut down on the tabulation: last 2:30 of games, margin 4 or less either way. Over that period during crunchtime (and I know you will respond by saying it’s not a large enough sample size), Iguodala is 7 of 13 on jump shots, 2 of 5 on 3′s, 15 of 24 FG’s overall, 18 of 24 FT’s, 50 points, 6 assists, 0 turnovers. By my count, 30 out of 42 successful possessions. I can send you the file if you want to check my notes. So the question of shot selection is moot over this time period — he’s been highly effective whatever he does. FYI, Miller during the same period in crunchtime (my definition): 8-18 FG, 1 of 2 3-pt, 13-18 FT, 30 points, 3 assists, 4 turnovers. 17.5 out of 34 possessions successful. Overall, the Sixers have gone 11-9 during the 20 games that qualified as having crunchtime minutes (again, my definition), with 4 of the losses coming at the buzzer.