Even with a depleted Piston’s squad coming into the Wachovia Center at 8-12 is there any way we can look at this game as a potential win?
Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince are not playing. Ben Gordon is still coming back slowly from a sprained ankle and Charlie Villanueva is coming back from a broken nose.
Detroit has trotted out a starting line-up of:
- Rodney Stuckey
- Chucky Atkins
- Jonas Jerebko
- Jason Maxiel
- Ben Wallace
With Gordon and Villanueva coming off the bench is lesser minutes.
So once again the Sixers have the opportunity to face a beat up team who has been below average all season. On top of that Detroit is 26th in the NBA in three point shooting. But we know that doesn’t matter against the Sixers.
Can they get a win?
I say no.
Detroit is coming off two wins against Washington and Milwaukee even with a weakened roster. The Sixers as we all painfully know are coming in with 10 loses. I just have no confidence this team can put together a full game of solid basketball. No confidence they will defend well enough to win. No confidence they will adjust offensively to varying defenses.
The Sixers are just going to run their ineffective offense. Play piss poor perimeter defense. And maybe, maybe not rebound the ball. Last time we faced the Pistons they destroyed us on the boards 51-39. Ben Wallace dominated inside and Sammy only played 14 minutes.
I will be catching the late night rerun of this game as I have my own game at 7. I’ll be checking in during the second half.
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{ 47 comments… read them below or add one }
Why do I get the feeling Jerebko is gonna gave a big game hitting uncontested corner 3’s? The biggest concern I have Is Jordan doing his rotation insanity of having a full lineup of ineffective bench players on the floor together, and said line-up getting destroyed by Benny the Bull(Even though he isin’t min the Windy City he still looks like one) and Charlie NewHouse aka GodZillanueva(Im a Bucks fan, I couldn’t resist).
Hopefully with Atkins in the lineup, AI can play him on D, and not have to deal with Stuckey, because Stuckey could drop 30 on an out of shape Iverson, and really pick-up fouls on the bigs
Honestly I haven’t felt this hopeless for Sixers since the C-Spoon, and Sharone Wright days…Yeck a chill just hit my spine.
2 Bigtime defensive plays in first 2 minutes for Iverson
this is so terrible, why such a small lineup when villanueva and kwame brown are in? iguodala cannot match up with villanueva.
i love that oop pass for sammy D, why have we just started using that?
what a completely horrible call against billie green right there, he was actually boxing out
The Infamous “Jump Pass” does it again.
Big shot by Iverson.
OH NO WE SUCK AGAIN
Dala was wide open too bad he was thinking about his post shot celebration while he was shooting. Result: Brick. He pisses me off to no end.
dannie do u agree that he should take it to the rim there? there was literally no one in front of him. i know its iguodala and he loves jacking up the threes (especially when he’s open) but in a home game i always thought that you were supposed to take overtime if at all possible?
Best case scenario is that Thad doesn’t set a good screen so the ball never goes to Iguodala. Then Iverson takes it to them. Bad teams don’t win these types of games. I think it’s clear we are a bad team considering we’ve lost 5 of these close games.
i think it was brand setting the (illegal) screen
^Thanks. Turned the game off out of frustration after that shot when in… never saw the replay of the screen.
This is so frustrating. I’ve been a fan for almost 30 years and I’m starting not to care anymore. I’m going to watch the next 5 games no matter what. If this doesn’t get any better I won’t watch another game this season. Period.
RRose, im tellin u these guys are more painful to watch than the “After Barkley, Before Iverson” guys.
Hopefully the Sixers luck up in the draft next year, this season is done for. Im watching John Wall on ESPN and he is a monster.
Garvey, you mean you weren’t a fan of Richard Dumas?
HaHaHa. Naa, My guy was Derrick Alston.
Dannie when will you right the fire Eddie Jordan post? I went to my first game tonight, this team is ridiculous. Jordan is horrible but I also blame ES. You let your best player walk (Andre Miller) who was also the only guy that could facilitate this stupid offense. I hate it. The bigs circle the post, Sixer big men can’t past from the high post; then you have that punk Iggy running the point forward, with no push, so you get less fastbreak points, and the loser can’t make an open jump J; so that’s what 85mil get’s you. Mediocre. Brand should have had 30 tonight. He got no touches in the 3rd. then he sat for long stretches in the 4th. AI could get 50 and this team will suck. FIRE JORDAN TODAY ES!!! Avery Johnson still sitting home. I doubt I’ll go to another game this season.
Byron Scott is sitting at home also I believe.
TT32 – Wrote it already. But I am sure there will be more if Stefanski continues to sit on his hands while his team falls deeper and deeper in this hole they are in.
Adam – Yeah you should go for the tie at home. But he was WIDE open. NBA player needs to make that shot a high percentage of the time.
I dont have a problem with the shot, I think Iggy took too wide of an angle after the pick, most likely on purpose to he could hit a game winner, instead of a game tying 15 footer which would have been equally as open. However it was a wide open shot that anyone(even Hornets Devin Brown) should take.
TT32 - Eddie Jordan inexplicably doesn’t run plays for the hot hand. I was hoping when Iverson hit 2 straight J’s in the fourth, He’d get a “heat check” play for him, because we all know AI is very streaky. EJ’s mishandling of Brand is just stunning.
Adam- Yeah B. Scott’s sitting at home. Avery Johnson’s sitting in an ESPN studio, seemingly any given person/coach from the ESPN/TNT Color announcers could do a better job. Tim Thibideux(can never spell his name) is unrightfully sitting in an assistants chair.
On another note besides Boston, the Atlantic division is pathetic. Which is all the more frustrating that Sixers aren’t winning games they really should.
Hah, the old go for quick, easy 2 vs go for the win argument…
Just for old times sake:
Odds of winning on the late 3: 33% (assuming you can devise a good play for a decent shooter.)
Odds of winning after a quick 2:
0.7(odds of scoring a quick 2) X 0.7(odds of stopping opponent on their last possession) X 0.6(odds of winning in OT) = 30%
So pretty close… but I was giving best case scenario in terms of the quick 2, getting the stop and winning in OT. The actual odds are actually lower.
Of course the actual odds when Iguodala is your designated 3 pt shooter…
[Sam, Elton], Thad, Iggy,Kapono and A.I. ; if these 5 are on the court it is a tough guard for the other team and the court would be spread out. Our coach is a bad situation guy , both offensively and when needing a stop. Dannie you have pointed out continuously that we have a lot of one way players, well if you coach this team you have to be quick to sub at the end of games, he seems to just let things happen, instead of being aggressive. But we are closer to Wall so he is my favorite coach.
I never thought I would EVER say this…but Jordan needs to stay…PLEASE! Another loss = another lottery ball….we NEED Wall….so far the AI experiment has worked to perfection…2 games = 2 losses. Lets hope for about 5 or 6 more in a row…we HAVE to try and catch the nets. And with Jordan at the helm we should have a shooting chance!
This was not a go for a quick, easy 2 vs. the win situation or argument. This was a get the best shot possible situation.
The Sixers had the last shot opportunity there so the odds of needing to get a stop after you tie the game is irrelevant.
The actual odds when looking at what happened could be assumed at 33.3% they win the game since that is Igoudala’s 3pt% this season and it was a 100% unguarded catch, set, shot, three so other factors (defense, hurried, fading etc) don’t come into play on that shot.
Besides that I don’t buy those odds or that formula as a reliable projection or indicator as to what to do even a little bit.
Where did it come from?
Dannie -
I think the formula is perfectly valid – but the numbers he put into the formula (.7, .7, .6) he just pulled out of his ass. He’s saying that they have a 70% chance to make a quick layup, and a 70% chance to stop a team on D. This is the Sixers, the Eddie Jordan Sixers, and you think they have a 70% chance to stop the other team!?!?!?
I like to think all percentages go out the window on a game winning shot.
The 3 that beat the Lakers was a low percentage shot.
The fadaway shot in the playoffs was a low percentage shot.
That Bullshit half court shot that Devin Harris hit against us last year was a low percentage shot.
The Kobe 3 off of one leg in the face of DWade the other night was a low percentage shot.
It’s 50/50. Either you make it or you don’t.
Dannie, was only throwing those numbers out there for fun. Don’t really care that much one way or the other and can see the reasoning behind both sides. I like stats, so I just through together a quick formula to compare going for a high percentage quick 2 vs holding for a well designed 3 at the end of the clock.
The formula is just basic stats, like the odd’s of heads 3X in a row is 0.5X0.5X0.5=12.5%.
The actual percentages I just pulled out of my ass… Figured best case a well executed quick 2pt basket has a 70% chance of succeeding. That leaves the other team with enough time to draw up a play… so I gave the Sixers a 70% chance of getting a final stop to force OT, as opposed to them beating you with a basket or foul shot on their final possession. Then I guessed you’d have a slight edge in OT at home, so I gave the Sixers a 60% chance of winning if they made OT. 70%X70%X60%=30% chance of winning if you go for a quick 2.
I think the percentages I chose were pretty generous, given the team’s lack of scorers or defense… but was more interested in the statistical exercise. I’m sure this has little interest to you and most people- so feel free to move on.
Guest – I can’t agree at all with anything you just said. In fact kind of contradicted yourself with that last line:
“It’s 50/50.”
That suggests that all game winning shots have a 50% chance of going in and therefore are NOT a low percentage shot rather a coin flip.
Matter of fact, that says ALL shots have a 50% chance of going in. Why then do guys shoot any number of percentages from the field?
Whether you intended to suggest that or not that’s what “50/50″ means. Shooting in any situation isn’t like flipping a coin. Some shots, from different spots by different players have different probabilities of going in. I am sure you know that but for some reason are oversimplifying on this.
You pointed out made shots as examples. What was the point of that?
Count up all the made and missed shots in similar end game situations and the numbers I would think would be a bit lower than the individual player’s normal scoring efficiency on average on the same shots in non end game situations over time. I tend to think game winning/tying attempts are tougher shots in many cases since the defense is usually set and prepared for who is planning to take the shot and what the offensive alternatives are on the play.
And the raw shooting numbers are definitely lower in general because game winning shots are often ridiculous attempts against the clock, often from deep that skew the number down.
A few stats courtesy of 82 games.com:
Last season Andre Iguodala shot 12.5% from three and 47.4% from the floor in 4th quarter or overtime, with less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points (their definition of “clutch time”).
That gives you some indication as to the Sixers winning chances on that shot last night. ALSO…
League wide FG% on game winning/tying opportunities (definition: 24 seconds or less left in the game, team with the ball is either tied or down by 1 to 2 points) is: 29.4%.
Andre Iguodala in those situations: 36.4% (8-22)
Those stats are based on compiled data from the 2004 season through most of the 2009 season and playoff data from the same starting point through the ‘08 playoff.
I would love for them to redo this analysis and take out the attempts that are desperation heaves and see how the numbers change. That would give a better indicator of whether a player “tightens up” on normal shots in bigger moments compared to what his shooting % is on the same shots early in games.
I love Iverson being back but the shame of it is that he will only hurt our lottery chances, although we seem to keep on losing at a great pace. Iguodala has to go, trade him now while he has value across the league.
Sammy who as everyone knows I have murdered on these blogs is playing very well, it’s just a shame that he only plays when he wants to play ala randy moss.
Did I mention that we need to get rid of Iguodala?
TK76 – I misspoke and Kainer corrected me. The formula makes sense. It was the numbers that didn’t sit well with me.
And I think the “quick, easy 2″ scenario doesn’t quite sit well with me though.
Why would a team give up an quick, easy 2 that ties the game?
I understand that happens when it’s a 3+ point game. Teams overplay the three pointer and are willing to concede a easier deuce. But I think the defense is playing 100% for the stop when it’s a 2 point game so the odds of getting a “quick 2″ should be much lower. Does that make sense?
I tell you what. An ambitious stat head could figure out some numbers that does an admiral job of forecasting that situation.
You figure out a teams probability of making a three point shot on a possession (while ignoring and 1 situations since the idea is we are going for a 3 pointer by design) Maybe it’s just average 3pt% of the 5 players on the floor weighted by who is most likely to take the shot – That is the 3pt probability part of the formula
Could then calculating the teams points per possession and then the probability of the team scoring exactly 2 points on a possession.
You could then also calculate the opponents probability of giving up 2 points on a possession. Take the two numbers and figure out the average probability of the offensive team scoring two points and there is your “quick 2″ probability part of the formula.
You do the same exercise as above in reverse to figure out the odds our team get’s a stop (allows zero points on a defensive possession).
Odds of winning in overtime would take some thought but data exist that it could be done.
I like stats too, but not that much that I would spend all my time free time in spreadsheets. I tend to prefer to just talk about sports off the cuff and use stats for support when needed, rather than using the stats as the main point of a discussion.
Dannie, my point in bringing up those “low percentage shots” was to emphasize the amount of “low percentage shots” that have gone in, in the past. That’s also why I said that I throw away percentages in game winning oppurtunities. I didn’t mean the 50/50 thing as literal as you took it, but you made some good counter-points. All I’m saying is that regardless of the player, the skill of the player, or any other variable you want to throw in there… these shots fall sometimes and others don’t. I’m not going to overreact to the last play of the game because the game was lost before Andre even took that shot. (Getting out rebounded by 13 probably had something to do with the loss).
Andre “The Giant Mistake” Iguodala’s wide open arc shot should’ve been pre-shot cancelled by “Lumberlegs” Brand’s flattening moving pick on Stuckey (reminded me of Tra Thomas burrowing a cornerback). Clear for all to see. NBA refereeing is a highly subjective art sometimes. Whistle-swallowing there (to the home team’s advantage) is either yellow or influenced by issues outside the technical manual.
Wondering about the last time Sixers lost 11 straight. Anybody know when that was? Seems to me the losing streak and historical correlatives should have been mentioned by now by one of the local scribes. Maybe it has been, and I’ve missed it.
2006 I believe. I think they said it during the game. I’ll check.
12 game losing streak during the 2006-2007 season from: November 25th to December 20th.
Don’t remember that. Thought it would date back to Moe, Davis or Lucas days. Thanks for replying, Dannie.
A team including Ivan McFarlin and Shavlik Randolph on a 12 game slide – hard to fathom.
They held on to Cheeks for the rest of the season, one more full (losing) season and 23 games of the follow season after that 12 game losing streak.
Hmmm.
Will Eddie Jordan get the same leeway?
After Williams & Speights return, if losses continue to mount and attendance continues to thin (from AI homecoming night apex), Jordan’s time will be short.
If EJ is to be on the hot seat, I’m thinking ES has to be too. Sort of like Greenberg/Davis.
Although EJ is more of a Doug Mo than Davis.
Since I can’t post pics here…
http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=942773&p=21559214#p21559214
Andre Iguodala missed a wide open shot. how many times have we seen that already? how many times have we seen it from every other Sixer player? he was the open man. Iverson did it right. he missed. we suck. that should be enough right?
Eddie Jordan has killed our season already. Firing him means we might actually start to win.
I cant really believe what I am seeing with my eyes, we continue to lose but we are actually playing worse with each game. the dropoff from the Boston game is gi-normous! Iguodala’s play despite popular opinion is no worse than it was before, Sammy is playing very well lately, Elton Brand is looking very salvageable, Thad is shooting the ball better now (check 3pt% lately), AI is not killing us on defense, Willie Green is still contributing in his own way. Nothing has changed that much, yet we are really sucking it up. when did we start scoring just 86 measly points against a short handed Detroit squad? I couldnt believe my eyes watching that game ast night.
Can one man really be responsible for all that?
Tk76 – You just mentioned what, for me, is “The Name That Shall Not Be Spoken”…aka: Johnny Davis. Now THAT is a truly terrible coach. He was so, so SO freaking awful Iverson’s rookie year (or did he have the Vernon Maxwell/Stackhouse year as well?)…just literally let the players run all over him. Got his second chance as interum coach for half a season in Orlando as well in the early 00’s, and again proved his incompetence. Truly couldn’t stand that guy.
Comparing this 76ers team with the 1993 -95 years: Those teams at least were truly TERRIBLE and we knew it. I mean…Trevor Ruffin, Willie Burton, Jeff Malone, Scott Williams, Sean Bradley, Richard Dumas…these teams were just laughably depleted of talent. When Clarence Weatherspoon (still one of my all time fav. Sixers from the 90’s, along with Hersey Hawkins!) is one of your go to scorers, you are in trouble.
What’s most frustrating, and I’d argue more frustrating with team, is three things:
a. We actually HAVE talent on the roster. Iguodala, Thad, Brand, Speights…possibly Jrue?…we can all harp on their weaknesses all we want (there are many) and how they fit on our team…but fact is they are all good players that can ball in some respect, and on other teams would probably be having more of an impact. The 93-95 years had NONE.
b. We have the opposite problem as the AI era; with him, we had an alpha option on offense and a bunch of 4th and 5th options, desperately needed some 2nd and 3rd legit options. This team has a bunch of legit 3rd options on offense, and still no dynamo scorer. Would be great if they clicked chemistry wise…but they havent gelled at all. Yuck. And the 93-95 era had such a hodgepodge of talent, we treated it like NY fans treat the 08-10 Knicks…just happy when something goes right. We knew how much of a mess they were going to be.
c. The albatross near max contract with Brand set us back years. Nothing more I can add there. At least in ‘93 – ‘95 we hadn’t locked up our financial flexibility yet and weren’t paying enormous numbers to people.
d. We don’t yet have a young star to groom. We have a pretty good collection of nice players (Speights, Thad (maybe)…Jrue (maybe)) but no guy that we can BANK on. Although I have said from the get go that I thought Speights was a 20/10 lock.
a. yes we have talent, but mostly 19-23 year olds. No vet glue guy like Andre Miller to keep everyone on the same page. Thought Iguodala could step intop that role, but he is to concerned about himself and non-calls and how things effect him.
b. Chemistry is the same deal. Miller masked a lot of weaknesses. Coaching could mask some fit problems, but EJ is the ultimate pound the square peg into the round hole kind of coach. He’d rather lose his way then adapt his system.
c. I agree Brand (and Iguodala’s) deals limit the team’s chances to be aggressive to bring in a star. That is partly why getting a high lottery pick this year could be a blessing. It’s their only legit shot at a star in the next few years (even if it is a long shot.)
d. No budding superstar (until after this draft) but I still enjoy seeing how all of the young players do. Really enjoy Jrue’s approach to being a PG and defense. Speights is an offensive beast, but I don’t think he has the make-up of a star. He needs a bigger star to push him to tap into his talent.
Someone Sabotaged Eddie Jordan’s wikipedia page