Getting the Bad News Out of the Way Early
Lets be real. The Orlando Magic are better than the Philadelphia 76ers. They were 18 games better in the regular season. So whether we or anyone else thinks the individual match-ups are split or close their “parts” and coaching have proven to work better together than ours. Is that likely to change during this 7-game series? No. After 82 games you are what your record suggests you are. And the records and statistics suggest the Magic are by far the superior squad.
Some Orlando Numbers:
- #1 in the NBA in defense (defensive rating = points allowed per 100 possessions) with a rating of 101.9 (Boston is 2nd at 102.3)
- 1st in eFG% defense
- 3rd in FG% defense
- 2nd in 3pt% defense
- 2nd in defense rebounding
- 4th in defensive FT/FGA (meaning they play great defense while not fouling much)
- 6th in 3pt%
- 11th in offensive rating (offensive rating = points scored per 100 possessions)
- The Sixers averaged 94pppg against Orlando this season. That is exactly what the Magic give up per game on the season (94.4) and 3 points below our season average (97.4).
That makes the Sixers the underdog – a big one. It will take something very special from the Sixers to upset the Magic or a catastrophic turn of events negatively impacting Orlando. Even if the Sixers play their best game we still are going to need the Magic to play below their capabilities (not shoot well for a number of games) as well. When you add the fact that Orlando also has home court advantage (32-9) it all just means the odds are long we see our Sixers in the next round.
How the Sixers can Get the Upset
Let me start with this: Over the last two seasons in 7 games against Orlando the Sixers are scoring 97.6ppg while allowing 103.6. In that time their overall averages are 97 ppg, while allowing 96.8 ppg. I think it’s clear where the deficiency is. Knowing that allows you (as coaches and players) to place extra emphasis on attempting to shore up the biggest hole.
The other thing coaches and players do (should be) is looking at what other teams did effectively against the opponent. This season two teams handled the Orlando Magic with no problem: Detroit and Houston. These were the only two teams all season to win the season series against the Magic. In fact they were a combined 5-0.
In looking at those games here are 6 things the Sixers must do to win this series the way Houston and Detroit did:
- Put up more shot attempts. Orlando took 6.8 less shots per game in their loses to Houston and Detroit. How?
- Force turnovers and take care of the ball yourself. Orlando committed 2.6 more turnovers in those games and
- Control the boards with a team approach. Orlando was out-rebounded by 5.6.
- No more “hope” perimeter defense. Orlando shot 4% below their season average from the field and 5% below their season average from 3 in those 5 games . This is definitely more wishful thinking than a key but hey doesn’t mean it shouldn’t keep preaching it constantly.
- Foul Dwight Howard. This is the playoffs and my basketball life was grown during the late 80s early 90s. That means no lay-up and dunk rule in the playoffs. And make the fouls hard. This is especially important if Samuel Dalembert isn’t healthy. Word is he was still was having some pain lifting his arm all the way up. That sucks but he still should be used for his 6 fouls. We are a bad free throw shooting team but Orlando is the worst because of Howard and his high number of attempts. I said in my previous post make it a 2’s vs. 2’s game. When Howard gets the rock you can almost make it a 2’s vs. his 1’s game.
- Take Hedo Turkoglu out of the game. In the four games he played against Detroit and Houston he only averaged 10.3 ppg, 40.5% from the field and 16.7% from three. I looked at Lewis and Howard’s numbers and they were nearly as low as Turk. In fact Lewis was quite good in those games. It’s clear Hedo is the captain of the ship now that Jameer is gone with his versatility to score in many ways as well as facilitate for teammates. Control him and you control the Magic. This is the biggest factor for me because we actually have a player or two capable of doing it if he commits himself (Iguodala and Thad).
The question/problem: Is it even reasonable to expect the Sixers to buck the trend we’ve seen in previous meetings, most notably porous perimeter defense and nonexistent rotations? Here is my response to that issue…
At some point players go one way or the other. Leaders emerge or they don’t. They define themselves.
Iguodala is talking the talk right now which for me means he has put the pressure on himself and predetermined this series as his defining moment. His team is a big underdog and he is the center piece one way or another. He can go one way or the other. He steps up and dominates or he withers away in the shadows like last year’s playoffs. Not only that but he demonstrates leadership both on and off the court elevating the level of play of his teammates as well. If he goes the right way we could see change.
I said in my previous post Thad needs to have a Derrick Rose-like coming out party. We are all high on the kid. He has progressive like a downhill skier the back half of the season. Now is money time. Young, experienced – screw that. Just ball. Rose proved age doesn’t matter, performance does. We need Thad to really be the GREAT player everyone prematurely anointed him in this town and come through with truly GREAT performances.
Game 1
It’s about one thing for me. Setting the tone. They are confident and they should be. We won’t know if they are sleeping on us until the ball goes up. That’s neither here nor there. Let Orlando know you are here to play – HARD. You don’t plan to roll over and make it easy and clearly demonstrate this is going to be a dog fight, rough, down and dirty game and series. That style of series bodes much better for the Sixers than the sharpshooting Magic.
By jumping all over the Magic early it allows you to see how they will respond. Will their coach choke as Shaq has called him out on as doing? Will Howard step up or start focusing more on the refs than the game? These are situations we want them to deal with. Pressure busts pipes. Simple pressure of being the higher seed isn’t enough to do that. The Sixers need to add some doubt in their minds, adversity and turn the home court advantage from the jump.
Get fired up – it’s Sixers playoff basketball!
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{ 61 comments… read them below or add one }
6ers are pumped up for the game. too bad sam got into foul trouble early, he’s been really good at not fouling the past two seasons. he’s caring today and it’s beautiful. iggy is still forcing it a little, but not as much as last year. i can’t believe carleisimo can’t coach, he’s a fantastic announcer.
Lou, please play like that for the rest of the game – cool, calm, letting the game come to you; but make the damn free throws. Theo, you need to relax, too, this isn’t NBA jam, we need those tap-blocks, no swats into the crowd. 6ers, you relaxed too early, that was Anthony freakin’ Johnson with the coast-to-coast dunk, you made him look like LeBron.
What is the first thing your supposed to do at the end of a quarter when the other team is running the ball up the floor? Oh yeah, I got it! STOP THE BALL! Bad defense to finish the quarter by Lou (which also came right after he missed 2 free throws). Give Johnson credit for finishing though. Good 1st quarter. Those 2 fouls on Thaddeus were bull by the way.
that Laura Green is hot
guest, nice to have company. that wasn’t a pretty 5 minutes. A “thank you sir, may I have another” for Lou’s play so far. we’re missing Sam, I feel like we would have a bigger lead if he was in there.
Speights is playing like a rookie, damn.
We have our two worse perimeter defenders in teh game and Courtney Lee is killing us with his best Derrick Rose impression.
Lou, a big “hell no” for those last two shots. Trust your teammates. Iguodala, this is not the time for risky outlet passes you just tried to throw to Speights. Save that junk for the regular season.
DiLeo, get Lou out of there for Green, we need some defense on Courtney Lee.
Game is getting ugly. Thad, make those foul shots. Doctor J has a sense of humor. Nice you could make it too, Dannie.
I loved that attempt to go coast-to-coast by Iguodala, there are only a few players in the NBA who could’ve stopped that, unfortunately one of them is on the opposing team tonight; good block by Dwight, that was great basketball. Willie Green was finally put in, and Courtney Lee cooled. Pay attention, DiLeo!
We can!t keep Lee out of the lane, what do the quicker guards do [D.Rose?] against us. Why does Sammy never get reentered late in a half after picking up an early 2 fouls, you get 6 right. Guest, I had the national broadcast on but the picture is so much better on comcast. Zack, Carlisimo is doing a good job though.
KEY STATS: Sam had 5 rebounds in 6 minutes, we need more of that but stay out of foul trouble, big guy. The Sixers only took 4 3-point attempts; way to know your strenghts and weaknesses, good job DiLeo. Speights was a -5, the lowest on team at halftime; calm down, rookie. DiLeo, don’t be afraid to try Donyell instead of Speights, maybe Speights will get his playoff legs by the next game.
Only 7 attempts from three by the Magic; again, kudos to DiLeo for taking them away from their game as much as you can. Two personal fouls each for Turkoglu and Lewis, that’s a major reason we’ve been able to keep the game so close. Maybe they’re having trouble keeping up with our athleticism? The most important stat of all: Jameer Nelson, 0 minutes.
All in all, I don’t think I could ask for much more than what they’ve given so far. Here’s to an entertaining 2nd half!
We are in the game but Orlando isn!t hitting from deep yet. A lot of switching, and leaving Howard open early but we are in it.
suede, glad to see you, too. Good point about the 6 fouls, but even I get nervous when a player’s playing with 2 fouls in the first half, it’s NBA dogma I’ve been conditioned to believe, I guess.
This 10-point lead feels like 20. Orlando’s talent is asserting itself. Sixers, just because you were close at halftime doesn’t mean you’re Orlando’s equal – you gotta fight harder to win.
We have to start forcing turnovers if we are to get back in it. Our defense is too weak to stop them from scoring 105. Get to the foul line and force turnovers and this thing could be close by the end.
Sam, we need these FTs!!!
So much for the “cool and calm” Lou; that was horrible shot he took, very deflating. Guest, I agree – let’s try to get some turnovers and get the momentum back on our side. Andre Miller looks like he’s getting frustrated, too. DiLeo should’ve taken that timeout earlier.
DiLeo, get Lou out of there, at least Green can play defense.
Lou Williams continues to look terrible. I can’t stand the kid at this point. You watch him defensively and he does nothing good on that end. In the first half we had really active hands and were making it hard to enter the ball in the post. Lou gets in and he has his hands down and just watches the ball go in the past. Such a waste of talent.
14-point lead… manageable… WE NEED: Andre Miller to make some icewater-in-his-veins jumpers. Iguodala to continue with his, to quote Carleisimo, one-man fastbreaks; the Magic have a hard time with those. Lou not to force things. Give Thad more touches in our half-court offense. Sam NOT to be too tired to keep up his strong effort today.
We need to lock up completely in the fourth if we want a chance. We need to get Thaddeus and Iguodala going because right now Miller looks out of sync.
That was a horrible final 6 minutes of the half. Could be the difference.
Suede – See when Marshall is in the game? When the Magic went to the big line up. Dileo must have too a glimpse at my comment on the other post before the game.
Iguodala is turning the ball over, but it looks to me like he is getting hacked. We need to settle down. Donyell can get us “in” it if we stay solid on defense. That is a big if at this point.
And Dannie, I can’t agree with you more. I don’t want to say I don’t like the kid but….. I don’t like him. He is too unreliable.
ohhhh… man, darn, shoot – if only that 2nd Marshall 3 had gone in. THIS close to getting it under 10. We really should’ve seen more of him this season.
Sixers, now’s not the time to get sloppy. You wanna make a run, you guys gotta tighten things up!
Last one – SIXER PRIDE, baby, SIXER PRIDE!!! I love this run, I love the playoffs! Go Philly!
Zack, there have been a lot of “what ifs”. But im glad we made a run.
Dannie, Look at the post after we won game 1 against Detroit. You said something like “who would have thought being down 15 points on the road against a good team………”. If we pull this out, it will be exactly like game 1 last year versus Detroit.
Back in it.
Here is what to watch for down the stretch: Will Orlando start making their threes? Better yet, will the Sixers keep taking them away and contesting?
Remember the last game against them in the regular season. They were off all game until the last few minutes when Lee went off for 3 straight threes and put the game out of reach. Sixers can’t let that happen today and they can steal this.
Orlando keeps missing open threes. Sixers NEED to take this game.
Donyell is my hero. What a difference maker he is on offense. As soon as Rashard nails one, Donyell comes right back! It’s going to come down to defense as P.J. said.
Huge runner by Marshall.
Wow that was two tight free throws. He flung them up there for a bricks.
Wow. Poor free throw shooting and poor defense back to back. Not good.
Bad over-help defense by Theo. Alston had no shot and was looking for an out. Theo gave it to him. Like I said before the game – make Alston a scorer. He has missed at least 4 or 5 lay-ups at the rim today.
Donyell Marshall. Bails Iguodala out on that terrible three attempt.
CHANCE TO WIN IT!!! IS THIS WHERE AMAZING HAPPENS?
Iguodala is pissed he called that timeout. He wanted to take that shot on his own. Hmm what does Dileo have in mind here?
HUGE SHOT. BUT the game is not over. We need to get a stop here.
WOW! WHAT A SHOT! I can’t believe that went in. Im speachless
The series doesn’t start until someone loses at home. Well this shit is officially started.
It seems to be the common theme this year. The lower seeded team on the road, getting the job done.
-Mavericks
-Rockets
-Bulls
-Sixers
And I won’t be too surprised if the Heat and/or Hornets join that list.
Oh baby. What a crazy game. That’s the type of game that could kill Orlando. Donyell was what he always is, great shooter that needs to be in the game more. Can’t wait for game 2.
Question, Marshall comes in, Thad goes out. Why not go to a Marshall, Thad, and Iggy at the 4,3, and 2 for short stretches, I love Donyell but offensively that group , along with A.Miller or Lou could be scary.
Philly showed a look of fight in the 4th. Impressive comeback. Reminds me of the Detroit series last year.
Iggy showed great poise tonight after missing the two free throws down the stretch. Great shot by iggy and overall good defense against the orlando 3, especially against hedo. I like the Defensive gameplan of letting howard do what he does and make the rest of the team beat you. Keep up the good work. Cant wait for wednesday!!!
well this is exactly why you throw stats out the window and play the game; ANYTHIN CAN HAPPEN.
Great game by Iguodala, aggressive defense and offense. So far so good. 1 game not enough, game 2 is wednesday man. earn your contract. player of the game clearly.
as much as I dislike Lou Williams, have to admit his offense was a big reason we won. If we had lost his defense would be a big reason. Lee was killing us and coasting on defense with Green to guard. Williams made him pay.
Marshall 3s are also good in the playoffs who knew. Maybe we should start collecting them.
Marshall In = Thad out! some way to get them on the floor together??
Well if there’s one thing playoffs are about, its adjustments; “So Sixers expect a much different game 2 and GO OUT TO WIN IT! Orlando is a good road team so nothing is guaranteed. put some doubt in their heads and dont take that chip off your shoulders”
I’ll continue watching.
LETS GO SIXERS
1-0
Sixers just wanted it more. I give them a lot of credit, especially the bench. I agree that the Sixers need to be up 3-1 to win this series.
surprised that Magic was so lackadaisical.
surprised that no one seems to be excited bout the unlikely win.
sixers best chance to win series is on wednesday. we’ll see then.
Tom, your impression on Deleo!s first playoff performance ?
WOW, what a day for Philadelphia!!
-Ibanez hits a walk-off HR against the Padres
-The Flyers win 6-3 against the Penguins (PIT 2-1 in the series)
-The Sixers WIN in UNBELIEVABLE FASHION!! (The cherry on top!!)
And I think I should be a coach and you guys would be my coaching staff!! Just me and a laptop. Or we should be the 6th man in DiLeo’s coaching staff.
OUR BENCH WAS HUGE!!! Perhaps they will be the difference in this series, in addition to defending Lewis and Turkoglu. (I wonder if Rush will be a secret weapon, now that Marshall is revealed?? LOL)
I might go to Game 4 of this series. Once its offical, I will let you know. At halftime, I would love to meet you guys and you too Dannie.
We should be defending the perimeter LIKE THAT EVERY GAME!! If we keep taking Lewis and Turkoglu off the perimeter, this series could be a done deal. It’s best to let Howard do his thing, by himself and to use to the Hack-A-Howard.
Also, Andre Iguodala has that calm, confident similar to that of Kobe Bryant, his buddy. He was telling the truth after all about hanging out with Kobe in the offseason. That was like the shot he hit in LA (minus the buzzer).
Andre Iguodala/Thaddeus Young VS Hedo Turkoglu/Rashard Lewis
THEE MATCHUPS!! And I think we have the edge there from a quickness and aggressive standpoint. Turkoglu and Lewis are slow footed. Let’s MILK THAT ADVANTAGE!!
Also, I think we have exposed Orlando’s weakness–opponents with a deep frontcourt. The past two seasons in the playoffs, they lost to the Pistons, who have a deep frontcourt. Ironically, Ratliff was one of those big men for the Pistons who pestered and beat up Howard. We must expose that and play Hack-A-Howard!!
I wonder what adjustments both teams will make in Game 2 with two full days off until Wednesday?
It’s great to see Brand and Smith traveling with the team–encouraging news for next season!! I hope Dalembert will be ready for Game 2 because Ratliff needs to regain his strength, which is probably good that Game 2 is Wednesday.
Also, it looks like the Heat are struggling with the Hawks!! (They should probably given that matchup to us!!)
GO SIXERS!!! PUT THE PETAL TO THE METAL!! GO C-WEBB & AVERY FOR CHEERING US ON!! AND GET WELL SOON CHUCK DALY!!
Tony DiLeo’s incredible substitution patterns are good as advertised!! He instills confidence in this team and play with less pressure mentally. If we win this series, DiLeo will be the coach next season. And I feel optimistic that he will use Brand and Smith properly next season!! He is better than Cheeks in substitution patterns!!
GO SIXERS!!!
Rob: Iguodala models his play after Kobe & Co., the flashy kind of player, loves te spotlight too. its not as solid as theirs at all but if it can work like this, we’ll TAKE IT. If we win, he and/or Thad would have to be the difference. What are the chances Howrd hits all those FTs in game 2. Strategy to beat Magic is public now, wonder if we can pull it off.
My theme: Lets see
Rob, I mentioned it a couple days ago. In the only game Dileo coached with Brand in the lineup…. he scored 27.
Great running commentary guys. At halftime I said to my son that I hoped we wouldn’t have one of our patented, flat 3rd quarters. Then I saw exactly that. As Orlando kept pushing out their lead I thought here we go again. To the Sixers credit they dug deep, fought hard, and earned a fantastic win. Coming back from 18 points down in the 4th quarter on the road, C’mon.
How did they do it? Like we said they would need to. The Magic were only 5-18 on 3-pointers (We were 7-12, with Marshall being money in the 4th quarter). Not only did they not shoot it well, they didn’t take very many attempts. Why? Because Howard was getting his. Howard went for 31. He was 11-13 from the floor and 9-12 from the line, which is pretty darn good, but the Magic still lost. Howard’s extra shots took shots away from Turkoglu, who had only 8 attempts for the game, and Lewis, who had only 11 attempts. Alston ended up taking more shots than any of them, (Lee led the team with 17 attempts—gotta stop those drives), but he was only 5-15, so that strategy worked too.
It was a very even game across the board (assists, turnovers, personal fouls, steals, blocks). The major discrepancies were free throw shooting, where they had the advantage, and 3-point shooting, where we had the advantage (go figure, huh?). This tells me that our strategy is working. Let Howard get his and limit their 3-point shooting. This will keep the game even and give us a shot to pull out wins as long as we can make plays on both ends of the floor down the stretch, just like we did tonight. I don’t think we can ask for or expect much more than that. Hopefully we can continue to execute this gameplan.
An interesting question was asked to Dileo in the post game.
“How much better do you guys think you can play?”
How would we answer that question? Im interested what you guys have to say about that. Is that the best we can play?
Guest – I actually plan on covering that in my post for game 2.
Short answer I can’t see us playing all that much better. I mean we only had 10 turnovers, shot 51% from the field, 58.7% from three, making 7. We out-rebounded them and attempted 4 more shots. We can shoot free throws better.
I think the better questions are:
howard can’t play much better than he played either though. 11-13 fgs, 9-12 fts
The subtle difference between Cheeks and DiLeo is DiLeo’s ability to instill CONFIDENCE to his players!!
GO SIXERS!! KEEP IT GOING(Remember last year’s Game 2!)!!
Mike – But it’s reasonable to think if the Sixers single cover him all series he will put up those numbers rather easily. He won’t shoot as well from the line (I hope) but his game is tailor made to dominate a 4 out 1 in offense where he has space to move in the lane.
Not about Howard in this series though. Hedo played about as bad as he could. Lewis only attempted11 shots. I have to think Van Gundy along with their defense (which was bad) will get them refocused on the offensive game that got them 59 wins.
We still have a lot of work to do and that needs to be the mentality.