Sixers vs. Orlando Playoff Series: Match-ups

Playoff basketball.

That dreadful, yet +1 in the win column season is over.  Going into this series with the Magic I don’t plan on overdoing it.  There is only so much you can say and we will have a ton to conversation game-by-game.

With that said I am going to write two posts for this series.  This one quickly walking through the match-ups.  I am not going to harp on individual numbers too much because I think it’s not really all that important.  The another post will be looking at the series as a whole and the first game.  So let’s get into it.

Point Guards: Andre Miller vs. Rafer Alston

Everyone is pretty much in agreement that the advantage at the point lies with the Sixers.  I don’t disagree with that at all.  Andre Miller is the better, more efficient offensive player.  He plays a significantly bigger role for us at the position as well.  If Andre Miller doesn’t play well in this series the Sixers have no shot.  Whereas the Magic can get by with a subpar performance from Alston.  What that means?

This can’t be a slight advantage for us this series.  Miller MUST dominate this match-up from a production standpoint and a leadership standpoint.  He can’t let himself fall into the trap of the “I’ll get it back on offense” mentality which he often plays with.  Alston is a decent penetrator and passer.  He is not a great three point shooter, but is capable when consistently left wide open.  Those situations must be limited by Miller when he is defending Alston.  If Miller allows Alston to drive and kick or lose him on the perimeter that allows him to become a difference maker – which he shouldn’t be at all.  Also there is a very good chance they put Miller on Courtney Lee

So for Miller his dominance must come on both ends of the floor.  Use his herky, jerky ball-handling to get in scoring positions for himself, take advantage of transition opportunities and set up teammates.  He also much closeout on Alston and make his looks contested and most importantly keep him out of the lane.

In the post. Andre Miller posts up smaller guard effectively.  I have been hearing everyone say he needs to do that in this series.  I again don’t disagree necessarily.  But what I am curious in seeing is how effective that will actually be.  Here’s why:

• We aren’t talking about 6-foot Jameer Nelson this time.  Alston stands 6-2 vs. Miller’s 6-2.  The difference is in weight (strength) more than height.  Miller will need to create a bit more space down there with his body so Alson can’t get good contests on his shot.
• More importantly if I am Stan Van Gundy, knowing the importance of Miller for the Sixers and his propensity to post up effectively I am starting young, 6-5, quicker and a better leaper Courtney Lee on Miller (just like we will probably start Willie Green on Alston).  Not saying that would completely take away or take away at all his post up opportunities but he could make it much more difficult if the young guy stays discipline on the crafty vets shot fakes and change of speeds.

Winning key: Andre Miller needs to make this more than just a solid advantage.  He must dominate the game at the point guard position.

Shooting Guards: Willie Green vs. Courtney Lee

I got this as a push.  I know for many people it’s unfathomable that Willie Green isn’t a disadvantage in any match-up but for me that isn’t the case this time around.  Courtney Lee is a nice young player.  He is exactly what the Sixers need right now actually.  A legit shooting guard, who defends and can knock down open jumpers out past the three point line (40.4%).

With that said Willie will hustle his ass off, not complain about minutes and play solid defense.  What you can also count on with Willie – he will very rarely hurt you with turnovers.  If he takes good shots and doesn’t prolong cold streaks by continuing to jack ‘em up I really don’t have a huge problem with him in this match-up at all.  From a pure production standpoint I think it will be a push.

Winning key: Willie has to be the Sixers defensive stopper at the point of the defense and take his man out the offense completely. Chances are good he will match-up with Alston and he must keep him out of the lane.  He must stay home on shooters and not allow Courtney Lee to get a ton of open looks like he did in the last Sixers/Magic regular season game. (more on this below)

Small Forwards: Andre Iguodala vs. Hedo Turkoglu

If you ask Orlando fans they probably have this as an advantage for Hedo.  Most if not all Sixers fans would have this as an advantage for Iguodala.  Impartial people could go either way with many having it as a push.  For this one let’s look at some numbers (click image to enlarge):

Hedo holds a decided edge in head-to-head match-ups but Iguodala was the better player overall this season.  I will go with my Philly bias and say Iguodala holds the advantage here.  With one big qualifer: HE MUST take advantage of his superior quickness and athletic ability on both ends of the floor.  If he settles for jumpers that advantage disappears quickly.

Winning key: The Sixers must clearly win this match-up to even have a chance to win the series.  It can’t be a push and if Hedo outplays Iguodala overall I don’t see how Sixers even win a game.  Last year Detroit slept on us and that fact alone allowed the Sixers to win two games with Iguodala playing his worst basketball ever.  Not this year.  Orlando won’t do that.  So Iguodala needs to be productive and impact the game in multiple ways.

Power Forwards: Thaddeus Young vs. Rashard Lewis

These two players are completely different in their approach.  Lewis is a straight up shooter.  He takes 7 threes per game and they represent 50% of his shot attempts.  Thad is more of a slasher, post up player and developing perimeter shooter.  Neither player is much of a facilitator and both are okay rebounders considering they are technically playing power forward.  I give the edge to Lewis because he simply shoots the three so well (39.7%) on a lot of attempts as well as hitting his free throws at 83%.  That makes him an efficient scorer and slightly better than Thad in that area.  Defensively Thad is probably better.  How much we will see during this series.

Winning key:  Coming out party for Thad in a big way.  He needs to have a Derrick Rose start to the series and maintain it.  If all the talking heads and analyst are clamoring about Thad at the end of the series chances are the Sixers will have upset the Magic or on the verge of doing so.

Centers: Samuel Dalembert vs. Dwight Howard

Let’s not waste our time with the looking to much at this.  Howard is the best center in the NBA, Sam is far from it.  I do have a winning key though.

Winning key: Use all your fouls and make Howard beat you – by himself. Until proven otherwise he is not Shaq.  He hasn’t shown a killer instinct.  He has not dominated the game in every facet, in every game of a playoff series to be the unquestioned best player on the floor.  Until he starts doing that consistently, I say let him get his and focus on shutting the rest of the guys down.

We can compete 2’s for 2’s.  We can’t compete trading 2’s vs. their 3’s.

I’ll have a post up in a bit for today’s game 1.

Make Your Prediction

April 19, 2009