I’m not going to lie.
I’m freaking out right now.
Why?
Because of this from Jayson Stark…
The Phillies initially offered their two best prospects, pitcher Jarred Cosart and first baseman Jonathan Singleton (for Hunter Pence), and were told that wasn’t enough. The Phillies then offered to include their right fielder, Domonic Brown. But the Astros, according to one team that spoke with them, would prefer to spin Brown elsewhere for multiple prospects than take him themselves.
While I retrieve my jaw from the floor, let’s start with a couple things…
- I personally wouldn’t trade Domonic Brown straight up for Hunter Pence. Brown has shown exceptional plate discipline, power potential, and though he’s a work in progress in the field, he has a chance to be an all-star many times over. Pence would probably be better for this season, but Brown is 5 years younger, far cheaper, and has higher upside.
- Pence, on the other hand, is an improvement over our current RH-OF options, but is an overrated player because of his undeserved all-star appearances (Houston sucks) and quirky style of play. As pointed out before, his ranks 51st in WAR among OF ONLY since his first full season in 2008. His numbers this year are inflated because of a remarkably high BABIP (.370+) and are bound to come down (and already have started to). More on his value later.
- In my personal opinion, Jarred Cosart and Jon Singleton are a little too much for Pence on their own. Both are top-level prospects. I could stomach this deal because they are both far away from the majors and Phils are in all-out “win now” mode.
Here is the real problem.
A trade package of Brown, Cosart, Singleton and another prospect is better than what we gave up for Roy Halladay. Better than what we gave up for Cliff Lee. And better than what we gave up for Roy Oswalt.
If you are going to trade Brown, Cosart, Singleton, Other…. here are the type of players I would expect in return…
- Matt Kemp
- Justin Upton
- Ubaldo Jimenez
- Prince Fielder
- Andrew McCutchen
- Clayton Kershaw
Are you getting my drift? This is an outrageous prospect offer for a marginal improvement in our OF. If you trade the guy who was “untouchable” for Halladay, Lee and Oswalt and tack on the two guys who were “untouchable” for Oswalt up until 2 weeks ago – you had damn well better get an elite talent who provided a significant upgrade to your team.
You know who BBRef has as Pence’s most similar player through age 27? Bobby Higginson, Aubrey Huff and Rondell White. As it would happen, Huff was traded in 2006 (age 29) from the Rays to the Astros for 2 mid-level prospects. Rondell White was traded when he was 28, straight up for a relief pitcher, Scott Downs.
Those are 2 of the guys with the most similar numbers to Pence so far in his career and they were traded for peanuts. RAJ wants to trade more than we did for Roy Halladay. If a version of this deal goes down, it would be so bad, that it would potentially completely turn me against him.
The main hold-up for me is the inclusion of Brown in the deal. I get the “win now at all costs” mantra, and while I think giving up Cosart, Singleton and another prospect is too much, it doesn’t hurt us for 2011-12. But if you include Brown, I believe you are hurting us both for now, and the future.
Nothing is done yet, so I hope this is leaked mis-information, or Ruben comes to his senses.
Feel free to get into any trade discussion in the comments.
“If a version of this deal goes down, it would be so bad, that it would potentially completely turn me against him.”
I’m with you there.
I heard this on CSN as well. I was completely shocked. I think Amaro is vastly overrated as a GM and he just got extremely lucky inheriting a great team. He didn’t go GET Cliff Lee (he almost gave him away), Lee came back to us. Same thing with Halladay, who basically ruled out going anywhere else besides Philly. All you have to do is look at the deals he’s dished out to middle relievers. Absolutely unnecessary when you have potentially better bullpen arms wasting away in the minors. Now there’s rumors of the Phillies going after Heath Bell? Why? Hunter Pence? Are you serious? Dom Brown’s OBP is almost 100 points higher than his batting average. He’s got ELITE plate discipline for a rookie. I swear RAJ is just a cocky Phillies fan that somehow ended up as a GM. We’re not the friggin Yankees, we can’t afford to give away the prospects that our scouting and development teams have worked so hard to get our farm to the level it is.
I honestly think RAJ will be gone in 3 years, maximum. He’s an asshole
They used to say trades wo0uld take x amount of time to evaluate. Now, people are apparently inclined to judge ‘em before they are made. A fascinating development.
What I find fascinating about this whole process is the liquidity of names that you’d think are appropriately discussed secretly in negotiation. Yet, it seems like the likes of Ken Rosenthal and John Heyman fill out the table of 4 with principals like Amaro and Wade. You can’t help but wonder if some names are revealed to position for other deals, and effect negotiations with that. It’s a very strange framework.
As this is the ONLY baseball blog I read (And highly appreciate BTW) with the exception of the odd “External Link” from THIS blog, I do not have the same level of knowledge / inside info that many who post here do.
As I posted in the last thread (Giants series), I am MOST uncomfortable trading Brown and even one prospect for Pence. The last post on that thread (by Dude) has a link (Fangraphs, I think) that REALLY puts this potential trade through the wringer. I think many who post here would pretty much totally agree with your position here, Pete.
There is no doubt that the Phillies’ offense is worse than bad (not talking “on paper”, last year, “what happens every September”, and all the other dreamy wishful thinking), and how do we get from here to “there”. Something has to be done, and we, as fantasizers extraordinaire (Hey what’s a Recliner GM other than that), have all sorts of views, many as ill-informed (actually to a minimum here) to those with pretty perceptive, though hardly infallible, commentary. So with that said, what are the other real options out there? It isn’t that RAJ cares but as either ranters, ravers, and bloviators that most of us here are, what would be an acceptable move(s)?
As I see it, the need is for a guy that can consistently put the ball in play, not another strike out king. We have enough of the latter, and have had for the last two seasons. Isn’t ANYONE fuckin’ tired of a guy on third, no outs, and we get nothing but a K, a K and a FO7. Not even a sac fly!
The Giants are supposedly an even worse offense than the Phillies, but their situational hitting appears excellent, at least to this casual observer. If they get someone on, they tend to move him over (certainly against the Phils, and in spades). Who IS out there that make sense (Pence apparently strikes out a lot- WTF why are we even talking about this guy?) I don’t know. Can those who really know this stuff, please comment. Or is it already too late, and the question merely academic at this point?
Not a lot of other options out there.
Carlos Quentin is one – but is too pricey.
You’ve got someone like Josh Willingham, who hasn’t been great, but you could hope becomes this year’s Cody Ross.
Or, you could just stand pat. I mean, we do have the best record in the league and an improving offense.
I’m in favor of standing pat if the price of Pence is as described above. Roll the dice with what we have this year and be better off on the long run. I was getting nervous when I saw multiple top prospects included – the report I read most recently said brown was not in – bit if he is, and that offer was really made, Wade did is a huge favor by turning it down.
For what its worth, the latest rumor I saw was that the Astros want pitching anyway and not necessarily a position player (and not impressed with Brown). We’ll see what happens.
I’m not convinced the team needs an addition. The offense is improving and the bullpen has shined given all the injuries and role changes. I mean, if you told me our setup.closer combo would be Stutes/Bastardo three months ago I would have cried. I’m not being hyperbolic, I would have weeped.
Look at what this team has done this season. We don’t need to make a splash. We need a complimentary deadline piece.
Settle down, Rueben, don’t be a hero.
I think there’s something to this. We haven’t really had our full roster healthy for more than a couple weeks total this year (estimate), and while there’s no garauntee we will have everyone healthy, it sure looks like we’re heading in that direction.
I would love to see pence here, but not at the cost of two top prospects, let alone brown. I’m open to exploring other options, but only at the right price, and only then if they’re clearly an upgrade over Mayberry (who has been on a tear since going down to the minors and tweaking his approah).
I don’t know how much I agree, or disagree for that matter, but one thing is for sure. You need to be active and seek ways to improve your club at this time of high liquidity. The process is crazy, but you have to be involved in it.
I agree that you have to test the waters (and from what i’ve read, amaro had been making a lot of calls) but i’m not a believer in making a move just to make a move. If pence is too pricey and all we can get is a “serviceable” right-handed bat, I think we have that guy already.
OK Ken, but what do you see as options? And at what price? What do you see as “needs”? The discussion here is, at base, about what to buy and the number attached to it.
I think the offer should be Aumont, JC Ramirez, and Tyson Gillies for Pence.
Matter of supply and demand.
A ’56 Chevy Bel Air (with two-toned bodyside treatment) originally went for ~ $2,000. Today, $15,000-20,000 will get ya in the game for one in good condition, if you’re lucky. Just saw one listed for $82,000, mint condition.
Many teams are in need of a RH hitter with pop. Not many comin’ off the assembly line at present.
Pence is road-tested. As major leaguers, Cosart, Singleton and even Brown are without warranty.
Rockin’ Ruben has the keys and a destination in mind. Monty is the Texaco man with the star.
“See the U.S.A., in a Chevrolet!”
The “car” in question isn’t mint though. It’s got a real nice paint job, but it’s covering up a lot of strikeouts and a few other issues. Its still a good deal for the right price, but I’d be wary of sinking your kids college fund into it (how’s that for a mixed metaphor)
Pence has forged 188 total bases, 11 more than Phillie leader Ryan Howard. His 132 OPS+ is topped only by Utley (134) and Victorino (142) among Phils. 5 yrs/.290, 25 & 90 - octane booster to sputtering offense … 19 gms this season of 1 or 0 runs!
He also strikes out a lot and doesn’t walk much – not the best complement to Howard. I’m not saying he’s not a good player. He is. And he’d be a great addition. But he’s not an elite player. The package being discussed is the price tag of an elite player. Plus the practical aspect that if you trade Dom brown, you’re not really filling a hole because you’d still have to give up even more to go get another OF after this season.
The lengthy process of a Phillie-Stro deal here may possibly be because the Phils are having a harder time negotiating within than with Wade. Brown, having survived acquisitions of several big players, and no doubt other feelers is probably more in favor with Ruben than Charlie. That opinion is based on quotes over a period of time. Any misgivings Charlie has are more current, but the scouting department is probably defending their talent, and I’d love to know what senior advisors Gillick and green are chiming in. A deal could be struck soon, or Houston might back off the Friday deadline. I’d guess this might go on another day. But this is holding up movement in action on BJ, probably Ludwick, and maybe Melky, and has to reach a point of conclusion affording tome for other business. It’s almost like running a marathon, and not having a clue whether you are in mile 5, or mile 25, and your body has zero clue.
I agree with pretty much all of this, my one problem is when you say about Hunter Pence:
“but is an overrated player because of his undeserved all-star appearances (Houston sucks)”
So he shouldn’t have gone to the All-Star game because Houston sucks? I only take issue because I can’t stand that crap, if he’s good enough to go to an all-star game, he should go. I hate how the all-star game is stacked with 10 players from two teams just because the team is good when there are better players out there that should go.
Anyways, getting back to business. RAJ is going after Pence because he’ll still be under team control and the team needs a right handed bat. He’s overlooking the wrinkles because of he isn’t a rental. We won a world series with Pat Burrell and Jayson Werth than only got to the world series with Jayson Werth. If we get caught against a team with a lot of good left handed pitching options we’re toast. That being I’d get a rental if it would costs less. If we get Melky Cabrera I’ll probably stop watching this team though (probably not but I might want to). It will be worse than seeing Miguel Cairo in a Phillies uniform.
And we couldn’t beat the Giants (and we go into looooog slumps) because we can’t even put the fuckin’ ball into play when we need to. Werth, for all of the hype that surrounds him (justified in 2008-9) was as great a part of the problem as anyone (if not greater.)
I think the comment about Pence and the ASG was with regard to each team having to have a representative, including the lowly ‘Stros. I actually think he is a good player; I’m just not sure that the price and the strike outs are in line in with our “needs” in the long and short runs.
Pete was just blowin’ off steam because he has an interest in watchin’ his monitored minor leaguers sprout, my take. To call Pence a “quirky”, “overrated player” and “undeserv[ing]” 2-time AS is not his most even commentating. The prospect of losing pipeline prospects 1, 2 & 3 would tend to upset those who care about the bushes. I don’t. Let’s win now, and/or next year. Not that HP necessarily gets them to Ring. An improvement though over Dom/Ben/John.
Oh, I agree that Pence is not worth give up 1,2 &3 prospects for Pence. I’m freaking out as well about giving up the farm for a guy who isn’t a superstar and not even close. (I think he’s a solid player, that’s all.)
I just said what I did because I feel like I’m the only one that actually likes the, every team gets a player at the all-star game rule. (It’s a pet peeve of mine that people have a problem with this rule.) It’s the freaking ASG, it doesn’t matter, no matter how much the MLB wants it to. It’s really rare that a team is so bad that it doesn’t have some player that is good enough to make it and if not, so what.
I want to have faith in RAJ because he’s made some great deals. However, this is also the guy that signed an old Raul Ibanez to an above market value 3 year contract because he was supposed to be the guy and he was the guy for half a season.
Why the obsession with a RHB to hit in the 5 spot? The year we won it all our RHB in the 5 spot had one hit in the World Series in a line up that also included Pedro Feliz. We definitely can win with Dom Brown.
obvious answer with Utley and Howard in the 3 and 4 slots, but Vic is also doing well in the 5 hole.
I’m still not sure about Brown, and I’m feeling that his stock has gone down with the Phillies and with some other teams. That’s the price you often pay when you draft raw players.
Dom was picked off of 1st in B1 going in standing, but it wasn’t ruled that way. Glad he works a pitcher, but he continues to raise questions about his game smarts/focus & intensity.
So now it seems as if its Cosart and Singleton and a player to be named later. I guess Im ok with that since Howard is blocking Singleton and we have at least two aces going forward over the next 5 years. Im sure theyll resign Hamels. Keeping Dom Brown was essential.
2 players to be named later
No Brown or Worley included, so I am pleased. Pence is going to be solid.
Ed Wade, Temple Owl, Houston Mourning Dove, Philadelphia Phillies Homing Pigeon. Thanks again, Ed!