I love the Sixers and considering how they have struggled the past few years optimism is what keeps me going strong. My optimism will of course be tapered by the understanding of probability, but nevertheless the hint of unpredictability is really why fans love sports. If we knew with 100% certainty the outcomes of various situations and player performance how exciting would that be?

Let’s look over some of his attributes:

–He’s 6’2. At that height, in the NBA that means one of two things at the highest possible level: You can be a starting PG, or a great 23-28 mpg combo guard off the bench. Period. Why do I say this instead of being more open minded?

Because 6’1 – 6’3 two-guard scorers are pretty much a dime a dozen. We could probably make a list of about 100 truly AMAZING college players in the past decade that were 6’1 – 6’3 SG’s…that all either would never make the NBA, tried and failed (i.e.: Troy Bell), are now playing in Europe because their tweener-ness didn’t translate well (i.e.: Louis Bullock), or are nice combo guards off the bench that step in and score (i.e: Eddie House) or step in to play either position (i.e.: Bobby Jackson, Delonte West).

Who are literally the ONLY two people to rise above this trend for more then 2 years straight? Allen Iverson, and Gilbert Arenas. These guys are so talented and in such rare air that it’s almost silly to assume anyone can achieve their status. Cuttino Mobley might be the only other 6’2 – 6’3 SG to survive in a starting lineup consistently…and amazingly, Monta Ellis seems to be so talented he might also enter the AI/Arenas category. But everyone else…Leandro Barbosa…will NEVER be a consistent successful SG. Ben Gordon is already finding this out. And Lou Williams is definitely in this category of “will never be a capable 2 guard because of his height”, plain and simple.

Why can’t he maybe someday grow to be a starting PG then? Because passing is not an innate gift that comes naturally to him. He’s already proven he’s not a pass first PG. Has he gotten better at passing? Hell yes. Is he committed to learning the game and grow his IQ more? Yup.

But take another similar type of talent…a 6’2 monster offensive player with a gift for scoring, that did a very admirable job in changing his game around, and learning the passing/PG duties well enough to start. His name? Mo Williams, Milwaukee Bucks. Completely changed his game from an undersized SG/shoot first PG…to that of a capable starting PG that will probably always average around 15-18 ppg, and 6.5 – 7 asts.

What’s the problem with a Mo Williams? Types like that don’t win. Never have, never will. He might be a great scorer, put up great stats, but a guy that has “learned” to pass more, still always brings a shoot first mentality, and it effectively stunts the growth of any up and coming basketball team looking for chemistry. Jeff McGuiness is another example…great scoring PG that slowly learned the PG game well enough to start…but a guy that you’d never actually want running your team long term.

If it’s a choice between “settling” for a guy that could improve to the point of a Mo Williams…vs. keeping an older vet that does “get it” like Andre Miller…or drafting a new guy with potential to be a true PG from college…I’ll always choose the latter instead of settling for a guy to max out as a Mo Williams type of PG. It’s the most important position in the NBA…we should not settle on Lou as the starting future PG.

That said, I think he could be in the running for a 6th man award winner, and an amazing sparkplug off the bench for a decade straight.

I agree Lou Williams is not a starting PG on a Finals caliber team and its likely he won’t be in the future either. With that said, no one can predict with 100% certainty which direction his development will take him. That is why I love the NBA we can be pleasantly surprised.

1. If, in two years, when these guys are coming into their own, we slide Iggy to the 2, and Thad Young to the 3, there is a serious lack of 3 point shooting between our 2/3 positions. Not good. I’m sure Thad will improve to the point where he can knock down threes…and Iggy can be a consistent 35 – 37% 3 pt shooter…but certainly not ideal. That said, I agree with Hollinger…Thad is a great talent, can slide in to play either the 3 or 4 positions, and if he had stayed his soph year at G-Tech, he would have been a lock for a top 4-7 pick in this year’s ’08 draft.

2. Lou Williams. This is NOT a talent to build on. I don’t care how talented he is, how athletic he is, how flashy he can look, Lou Williams is not, nor EVER should be, a regular starter for the 76ers. That said, he is a great option to have, and I think he makes a perfect combo guard off the bench in a Bobby Jackson type role getting 25 mpg. But let’s not get confused and call this guy an incredible core piece to build around. Nice talent, but if he is ever our starting PG, we’ll be below .500 for a long time.

If that’s true…and by the time Iggy and Thad come into their own, Andre Miller will be 35 or so…we might really want to think about drafting a project PG in this year’s draft with a late 1st round pick, or trying to get our hands on one of Memphis’ backups (Crittenton, Lowry…I especially love Crittenton) to be grooming someone in the meantime to eventually take the reigns. I’d love to be able to make a trade to get a 2nd, and later, 1st round pick this year to take a stab at a DJ Augustine or T. Lawson if either of them leave.

3. Say we have a nice 1/2/3/5 core of Andre Miller, Iggy, Thad and D-Bert, where we sign Iggy to a reasonable deal in the $12 million range (which is 50/50 in itself…he’ll want $15+ probably) and as Hollinger said “Can now only concentrate on the gaping hole at PF”…I’m worried.

Why? Well, say we strike out this year on free agency, and with our $12-14 million of cap space can’t land either Elton Brand or Emeka Okafor…likely, as the Clips and Bobcats can overpay them both FAR more then we can because of Bird rights. That means we’re relying on the draft for a mega PF…except, guys like Beasley, Patrick Patterson, Donte Green, Kevin Love, etc will probably all be going top 8…and with the way we are playing, our pick, again, will probably be in the 8-13 range this year.

This means we have to PRAY that there is a massive exodus of frosh/sophs in this years draft so that one of these talents can slip a little farther then they should. For now, the best sleeper PF pick in the country that’s flown completely under the radar: Alabama’s Richard Hendrix…6’10 beast in the paint, 10+ rebounds per game, tough, back to the basket game.