About 20 games into the season, it looked as though the Sixers were headed for a high lottery pick and the only thing to look forward to was the off-season. It was at this point that I wrote an analysis of the team and how they could build towards being a championship contender. Here is an excerpt so you know how I did my analysis.
Everyone in the NBA is good, that’s why they are in the NBA, and there are 40-50 players not in the NBA that could thrive if put in the right situation. As a result, it’s hard to evaluate non-superstar players on an individual basis. The best way to do this, in my opinion, is to see if you could picture them being a productive member of a championship caliber team – in this year’s case, the San Antonio Spurs. Let’s look at where the current Sixers players would fit on a team like this…
Even though it might make more sense to use the Hornets, Lakers or Celtics as an example here, I’m going to stick with the Spurs, as they have still won 3 championships in 5 years, while those teams have combined for 0 in that span.
Starters
Andre Iguodala - Iguodala had a fantastic regular season. He made big shots, improved as the season went on, showed some leadership and also the ability to occasionally create his own shot. As I pointed out in my 30 teams, 30 stats post, “The only players to have Andre Iguodala’s season totals (1,600 points, 390 assists, 440 rebounds, 170 steals) at a younger age than Iggy are Michael Jordan, Julius Erving and LeBron James.” However, the playoffs showed what everyone already knew, and what I said at the start of the season: Iggy will never, ever be the #1 guy on a championship team. He scored 13 ppg, shot 33%, took horrible shots, forced shots in the lane, dropped passes, and was clearly trying way too hard to prove himself as a superstar on a big stage. He would be a starter and 2nd or 3rd option on a championship team, providing defense and highlight reel dunks, but he would get most of his points through the flow of the offense, not from taking his man one-on-one.
Andre Miller - Miller is no Tony Parker or Chris Paul, but he is an above average PG, who is fantastic at game management, makes the players around him better, and suddenly, at age 32, has become a pretty good scorer (17 ppg, 49% shooting this season, both career highs). He also showed he can play some D while helping shut down Chauncey Billups during the first 4 games of the playoffs. He could definitely be a starter on a championship team, especially with his improved shot, but like Iggy, he would likely be a 2nd or 3rd (probably 3rd) option on offense.
Samuel Dalembert - Dalembert put forth his best season as a Sixer this year. He joined Tim Duncan, Marcus Camby, Dwight Howard and Emeka Okafor as the only players in the Top-10 in both Rebounds and Blocks. He did this by staying on the floor and showing intensity. He averaged the most minutes of his career, and tied his lowest fouls per game number. But, the best part of his development was his newly found passion for the game. He did a lot more screaming, hustling and inspirational mohawk-ing than in years past. I originally had him on the bench because he doesn’t have a single viable offensive move. He scores on alley-oops, offensive rebounds and occasional foul line jumpers. But if you give it to him in the post, it will likely result in a bad pass (only 0.5 assists per game) or an ugly shot. However, he is similar to Tyson Chandler and I don’t think any player had more game-saving, clutch blocks (including 2 on Duncan vs. Spurs) than Sammy. So, provided the team has a PF who can score, he can start.
Rotation Guys
Lou Williams - The perfect 6th man. Williams is the best player on the team at getting to the basket and I have yet to see a defender who can stay in front of him. He was 2nd on the team in PPG per 48 minutes during the regular season (23.6) and led the team in PPG per 48 during the playoffs (25.6). He is high energy and reminds me a lot of Leandro Barbosa, only he doesn’t vanish in clutch situations. At 21, he is only going to get better.
Thaddeus Young - Everybody is in love with Thaddeus, and rightfully so. For now, he wouldn’t be starting because he is still raw, but the sky is the limit. I don’t think it would surprise people if he ends up as the 3rd best rookie is his class (behind Durant and Oden, and yes, better than Horford). He is unbelievably smooth and fluid with the ball, is a phenomenal offensive rebounder and has the makings of a very nice jump shot. He led the team in shooting % and was 2nd among rookies in efficiency. Sticking with the championship team theme - Young would be a great energy player right now but has the potential to develop (not NEXT year, people) into the best player on this team.
Reggie Evans - It’s not entirely clear that Evans knows he’s playing basketball, not football, but aside from his occasional stupid foul or bad shot, Evans is exactly the type of high-energy rebounding, defensive, tough force that you want on your squad. Think of him as a lesser version of Charles Oakley or Anthony Mason.
Jason Smith - In Smith’s case, by rotation guy, I mean that he would play 5-10 minutes when one of the bigs needed a rest. He has potential to be a very good reserve. He showed a knack for blocking shots and a very good mid-range jumper. He needs to develop and learn a bit more before I would consider him a 20-25 minutes reserve guy.
Buried on the Bench
Willie Green - Green had his moments this year, and he played better during the second half of the year, but I still stand by what I said about him at the beginning of the year.
Has the skill to be a Devin Brown-type flash off the bench, but will occasionally (frequently) take horrible, momentum killing shots. He drives me absolutely crazy.
Green is good at hitting open jump shots, and if he kept his game to that, I would put him in my rotation. But, he trying to take it to the hole too much and ends up doing more bad than good. He needs to work on his defense and his 3-point shot and become a niche player.
Rodney Carney - I’m happy that Rodney came on in the second half of the year, and too be honest, he really didn’t play enough minutes for me to feel comfortable about my assessment of him. But, picturing him in a Spurs uniform, I think he is too streaky and mistake prone to crack a championship line-up.
What suit should I wear?
Calvin Booth, Kevin Ollie, Louis Admunson and Shavlik Randolph
So what can the Sixers do in the off-season to take the next step? They have cap space, they have a 1st rounder as well as the pick they got from Utah next year they can use in a trade. These are the questions that Sixers fans will be discussing this off-season.
1. What to do with Andre Miller - Miller has one year remaining on his contract. He’s 32, and he just had the best season of his career. The question is this: Do you trade him while his stock is as high as it will ever be? or… Do you extend him a couple of years andbuild around him? Personally, I think that you extend him. PG’s are not easy to come by, and the way this team plays, they NEED a PG that can distribute and get everyone involved. Miller does not rely on athleticism, so his game is not going to deteriorate as he gets older. I don’t think Lou Williams is the answer at point, he plays much more like a 2.
2. What to do with Andre Iguodala - Iggy turned down our contract offer last summer, and unlike his draft-mates (Okafor, Deng, Gordon), it looks as though he will cash in. However, I don’t think the Sixers should pay him superstar money, and the situation gets more interesting when you see that both he and Thaddeus Young play the 3, and unless Thaddeus grows a couple inches, that’s not going to change. Personally, I would explore sign and trades with Iggy and see if you can get a good deal (Josh Smith? Monta Ellis?) in a position we need more. Not saying I would definitely trade him, but I would explore the option.
Who should we draft - The Sixers pick at 16, and in a pretty deep draft, they should be able to get a decent player. There won’t be an impact PF availiable at that point, so I would think we would go for a shooter or just the best player availiable. I think Brandon Rush would be a good fit for our team with his shooting ability and strong defense. I will have a much stronger opinion on this by the time the draft rolls around.
Who should we sign - The Sixers have some cap room and may be able to sign a free agent or two that could get into the mix. Most of the big names out there are restricted (J. Smith, Ellis, Okafor, Deng, Gordon) or are unrestricted guys that have options they may pick up (Brand, Arenas, Jamison, Maggette, Iverson, Artest, J. O’Neal, B. Davis, Marion). So I’m thinking that unless Brand opts out, and will take less than the max from us, we are going to use our money to sign secondary players. Some guys I would take a look at include: Chris Duhon, DelonteWest, J.R. Smith, Carl Landry, Ronny Turiaf, Trevor Ariza, Craig Smith, Keyon Dooling and Sagana Diop.
What about Lou Williams - Sign him.
My dream scenerio - Sign and trade Iguodala for Monta Ellis. Hope Elton Brand just wants to get away from the Clippers and sign him to the largest contract we can afford. Draft Brandon Rush. This would give us the following line-up for 2008-09.
PG- Andre Miller
SG- Monta Ellis
SF- Thaddeus Young
PF- Elton Brand
C- Samuel Dalembert
Bench - Lou Williams, Willie Green, Reggie Evans, Brandon Rush, Jason Smith, Rodney Carney
That gives us a scoring PF, makes Miller our 3rd scoring option, gives up one of the deepest benches in the league and would make us a top-4 team in the Eastern Conference.
Hey, a guy can dream.
Who do you guys want in the offseason? Would you sign and trade Iggy or would you keep him?
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{ 19 comments… read them below or add one }
That would be a killer line-up. The best part is that it wouldn’t take the current roster’s personality away.
I agree with you on Andre Miller. Keep the man; you don’t just find points that run your offense well and that your team respects. And where did he suddenly get this swagger on offense from? Maybe I just had my eyes closed while he was in Denver and before…
I think the “what to do with Andre Miller” question has to do with what happens via trading or the draft. You have to figure, at age 32 (turning 33 soon I think), that he’s got three good years left in the tank, tops. That, to me, means two things:
1. If we do resign him, it can’t be for 5-6 years. The ideal would be a three year deal, he’d probably want four…I’d consider giving him four, but only if the contract is less expensive. I’m curious if he wants an actual pay raise due to his play, or would be willing to take a slight cut so we could re-sign him around the 8 million range instead of 9-10.
2. Because he is a gritty veteran PG…there is kinda no point in having him unless we have a true shot to contend. Which means…if land a guy of an Elton Brand’s caliber, we absolutely do everything possible to resign Andre Miller. If we wound up with a third tier PF, or just a draft rookie and slide T Young there a bit more…I say we cash in on Andre’s chip and trade him for draft picks or pieces.
3. I think we have to remember that, for once, our team right now has some damn good assets to offer other teams. Lots of contenders or playoff teams would be interested in the PG play of Andre Miller…lots of teams need Iggy’s versatile and ultra athletic style of play (especially if they had one dominant guy and needed other offensive options)…Thad Young, Lou Williams…these are pieces guys would actually trade for.
My point? I have no problem with a mini overhaul of this team. We could offer both Andre Miller and Thad Young, or both Andre’s…or Lou and Iguodala, etc…for some real interesting package trades to land a premier talent, or even work a three team deal.
If we strike out with Brand…a guy I’d love to pry away is from NYC…Mr. David Lee. I’d trade a resigned and extended Iguodala for a re-signed and extended Lee in a second, keep Thad as our SF, and (as Dannie said) draft the VERY underated Brandon Rush as our future SG, which will be this year’s blue chipper in the draft.
PETE: I’ve heard several times that A.Miller is a “west coast guy” and the impression is that he may not want to stay in Philly. How does that change your analysis and dream scenario? We know we have Miller for one year but, in reality, he will probably only stay here until the trade deadline, as I doubt the Sixers will keep him for the entire season and then let him walk. How would you alter the approach of getting the pieces we need? Do our priorities change? Can we count on adding a key player at the deadline?
bski-
If it turns out that Miller says he will not sign an extention then you need to trade him now while his value is at its highest, and get a young PG that can replace him. Lou Williams is not going to be the answer at the point. Maybe you could trade Miller, your 1st rounder and Utah’s first rounder from the Korver trade to move up in the draft to pick-up someone like Jerryd Bayless. Or, you could hope DJ Augustin drops to #16. There are not a lot people that would fit our system you could sign, so the only way to get someone would be through a trade. Maybe a team that is close and needs a veteran PG would give us good value. But there is no gurantee that that return will net you a young PG. Essentially, if Miller goes, and we don’t have a viable replacement at PG, this team is going to move backwards in a hurry.
PETE: I’m with you all the way. I don’t believe L.Will is the answer at PG either. His mentality is to look for his shot first, passing only after he is unable to break down his man. I would love to see him develop into our Ginobli. He could be a fantastic 6th man, but I don’t see him as a floor general. I also agree that we will regress without Miller. I’ve been saying that for a while on the Deep Sixer blog. Hopefully Miller will want to stay. He can keep us moving in the right direction and give us some time to find and groom a replacement.
bki - Glad to see another Deep Sixer commenter find their way to our little blog.
I wouldn’t be surprised in Lou Williams wins 6th man of the year in the next 2-3 years (if he is still a Sixers bench player). What I am worried about is whether he will be cool with that role. Or does he see himself as a starter in the league. I gotta imagine that will be discuss in the negotiations with him and could hurt the great chemistry and personality of this team if he is unhappy.
DANNIE: Thanks for the welcome. That’s why I used Ginobli as an example. Even though he is “the first guy off the bench”, he is widely regarded as one of the best players in the league. Plenty of respect and lots of minutes. I am hopeful that L.Will sees him as an great example of being a premier player in the league as well as the impact a “non-starter” can have on his team. L.Will can still get more minutes than the “5th starter” and put up big numbers.
Agreed.
Would Iggy have made this? I’m pretty sure it’s the longest dunk ever attempted by a human.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=kkUBnenxaz8
No Iguodala couldn’t make that. But James White could probably make it though.
Any ideas about whether A.Miller and E.Brand could influence each other. They only played together with the Clippers for one year but is there any chance that Brand might want to come here because of Miller? Any chance that if we are able to get Brand, Miller will decide to stay?
I don’t know about Miller influencing Brand, but I think it would be a lock that A. Miller will want to resign with the Sixers if Stefanski can lure Brand away from the clippers.
Bski, great point about the A-Miller/Brand connection from the Clippers a few years ago. Although I’ve never seen any reports of these two being “buddies” persay, I have a feeling that they would have a mutual respect for one another given how they approach the game. Both A-Miller and Brand are incredibly humble, un-egotistical, down to earth, play a team game, and as the wandering nomad-coach would say, “Play the right way.”
I agree with Dannie…if we miraculously land Brand, it will be automatic that A-Miller resigns. It would give the Sixers our #1 alpha dog, slide Iggy to what we all agree should be his #2 option on the team, Andre Miller as #3, with a great core of defense, offensive burst and athleticism in the remaining players (Dalembert, Sweet Lou, Carney) to fill out the rotation. No way Andre would want to leave a lineup that would have the potential to be top 3-4 in the Leastern Conference.
It would also ridiculously improve the Sixers defense…while Brand has always excelled at blocking shots, his one on one defense is absolutely incredible. Almost every notable PF in the NBA (Duncan, KG, Dirk, Amare, before-he-was-injured J O’neal) have all repeatedly been on record saying he is one of the biggest headaches in the league to go up against.
DAVE T: Thanks. There are not that many options out there for us to land the big time PF we need. Brand is a reach for us. I was just being hopeful that there could be some way to land him and keep A.Miller at the same time.
Pretty good analysis, though I disagree with your premise that Iguodala is a 3. IMO, people are making a major mistake by drawing long-term conclusions from the Prince match up. Iggy’s always been a swingman, but he is more of a 2 that can play the 3 at times. I would like to see him at the 2 spot. I am hoping Thad improves his shooting and ball-handling enough to play the 3, allowing Dala to move to the 2 and be able to exploit his physical advantages without having to be guard by people 3-4 inches taller. If Iggy furthur improves his shooting, the team will be fine with a Thad-Iggy wing tandem
Sean, nice post, that’s a good point to bring up.
Just wanted to clarify though…I meant #2 as in “2nd offensive option”…not as in the 2 / SG spot. I’m totally with you on people getting too worried long term about the him vs. Prince matchup. Prince is a premier NBA defender, and Iggy is not a go to offensive wrecking ball for a team.
I’m kinda glad this series happened because I hope it highlighted loud and clear to Stefanski that Iggy needs an alpha dog on the team to be successful…and that if that happens, he could blossom into one of the best “Pippen to MJ” types in the NBA. (some people might argue that, point go the AI years…but I think Iggy was way too young to know how to compliment a big time scorer then as the 2nd option, and was used primarily as a defensive stopper).
As for whether Iggy plays the 2 or 3 (SG/SF) spot…I think with him the position doesn’t matter. Or rather, it matters only in the sense of what else we have on the team. I’d be more then happy to have Iggy as the SG…but if that happens, then we need a SF that can shoot the long ball. If we put him at SF…we need a SG that can hit the long ball. Simple as that. I can see Iggy improving his shooting, but not to the point where an Iggy/Thad combo gives us the reliable outside shooting we need.
This either means:
1. They can’t play together as the 2/3 spot combo…and we trade one of them now while their value is high, leaving Thad as the future SF, or Iggy as the future SG/SF.
2. We slide Thad to the undersized 4 spot, that can provide us with SF skills, and acquire a more natural SG/SF that can score 15 ppg and shoot the rock from outside to pair nicely with Iggy.
3. Try to develop Carney more as our future starter, that would be able to chip in 11-13 ppg, 3 pt shooting, and great D, and keep Thad swinging between the SF and PF spots.
4. Take another year not really knowing…and if we whiff on a high caliber PF…to make sure we get a project PF, and / or project SG that can hit the three via draft…trade for a backup PG or draft one…and just make sure to give Thad 25 mpg next year out of the gate so we can see what this kid can do and develop, let him split time with Reggie Evans at PF, and spend half the other time at SF.
Honestly…the safe answer we can all agree on is NONE OF US KNOW his potential. Right now…Thad is still a total question mark. No one has a clue whether this is a future all star, future go to guy, a third option on offense, a tweener that might never fit, or a successful all star SF/PF tweener like a Jamison.
We need another year to see the type of true potential Thad has in the NBA…and the ceiling level of Iggy’s talent. Sixer’s offseason is ridiculously complex, I’m very nervous, and very excited to see what Stefanski has up his sleeve.
Dannie, Dave T - About Brandon Rush, let’s say he’s the guy we drafted - what’s his role? Backup SG off the bench? To go with LouWill and Rodney? Even if we move Rodney, I still don’t think I’d like LouWill with Rush as the backup SG. I think Rush would be much better with Miller, and Iggy with Lou.
Also, did you guys watch the LA-Utah series? How about those big lineups Jerry Sloan used? I don’t think the fact that Iggy is between SG and SF is gonna hurt you, those big lineups work pretty well defensively, even with Korver as SG.
Also, something that came to mind as a possiblity in an alternate universe (for now): if a team told Matt Harping that he was their #1, and told him to take 20 shots a game, would that be equal to Iguodala without all the flashy dunks? I haven’t lost my mind here - for me, contrasting players gives you a better picture of each player’s skills and abilities. Another example - if Iggy were much stronger then he could play like LeBron. Or can he already play like him, but he doesn’t want to because he’s soft?
While Rush wouldn’t start right away because he’s a rookie, he’s a poised, polished college veteran, and I would love to have him (for now) as our starting SG. He’d be able to chip in 8-11 ppg, play tough D, and knock down some threes. I think Sweet Lou and Carney should be groomed to be our future bench mob. If Thad learned to shoot the longball, then I’d be cool with an Iggy/Thad 2/3 position combo…but right now I’d rather have B Rush at the 2 (if drafted), and having Thad getting 25 - 28 mpg sliding between the 4 and 3 spots.
Agreed Sixersguy…I think Iggy’s versatility, especially on defense, helps us big time. The problem for me is offensively, because if he’s the SG/SF, then whoever is the other SG/SF needs to hit the 3 ball. Utah is a good example…their Brewer/Kirilenko is a horrendous combination because both their 3 point shooting sucks. However with Deron and the point and Okur as a big man shooter, they can get away with it, and have Korver bombing off the bench. We, however, can’t, because A-Miller can’t shoot and let’s not even talk about our big men’s “long distance game” lol.
Sorry Sixersguy, but completely disagree with the Harpring and Iggy comparison. They are very different players. Harpring is a tough nosed defender that has a good J, can occassionally hit the three, is a team player that gets hustle points and needs great players around him to fit in best. He would be AWFUL as an NBA go-to-guy. College was a different story as defenses weren’t so great in the ACC, and he had a steller career lighting it up at Wake.
Iggy, despite his recent performance, really is a much more versatile offensive player. He has very good handle, great court awareness, is far more athletic and a better slasher, can score off double teams better, when confident can intimidate another team a bit on the drive, is a better defender, and although his timing is off and decision making sometimes weak, he is a very good passer that could someday be a great one. Harpring could never ever ever EVER handle the kind of grind it takes to be a go to guy, even on a bad team…defenses and double teams would slaughter him, he’s simply not big enough or talented enough.
I would hesitate putting Lebron and Iggy in the same sentence lol. Size doesn’t mean anything with great players…it’s all their bball IQ and work ethic, and LeBron has it in spades. He understands every nuance of the game naturally, and has a bit of that Magic Johnson gene in him offensively. Iggy could never play even close to the level of Lebron James, he just doesn’t get the game as well.
*Harp had a steller career lighting it up at G-Tech, I meant