If you had told me that 20 games into the season the Phillies would have a 3.64 team ERA, 2.84 bullpen ERA, Brad Lidge was healthy, Chase Utley was the best player in the NL for the first 20 games and Pat Burrell was playing like he’s primed for an Adrian Beltre type contract year – I would have been ecstatic. We’d have to be 15-5, right? Maybe 14-6 or at worst 13-7.
But these are the Phillies, when something is going right, something else is always going wrong. Instead of leading our division, we sit at 10-10, certainly not a bad start for a team that didn’t get to .500 until the 42nd game last year, but not quite as good as many had hoped for. So what’s the hold up? Well – a couple things…
Unearned Runs – That great ERA the team is sporting only counts for the earned runs – but this team has given up a league high FIFTEEN unearned runs. The defense, which should be a strength, has been bad, yielding the 3rd most errors in the league, at 20. That’s 1 per game compared to the 0.55 per game they had last year. This HAS to improve. Bad defense is one of the most frustrating things for a team and its fans.
Ryan Howard – While Utley and Burrell have been rolling along, Ryan Howard has made me look like an idiot for predicting a 2006-like season from the big man. Right now he is hitting .200 with just 9 RBI. I don’t care as much about his low HR total (4), because he’ll get his there. But he HAS to be a better hitter, do a better job of identifying balls outside the strike zone, and swing for the gaps, not the fences. He has 28 strikeouts in 20 games, a rate that would obliterate his own MLB single-season strikeout record. Can you IMAGINE the commotion if the Phillies had signed him to that 150+ million dollar deal he was looking for? My not-so-bold prediction? The Phillies ride the arbitration train with him until 2011, when they will move Utley to first and bring up super-prospect Adrian Cardenas to play second. At this point, it might just be the best move.
Rollins’ Injury – Chalk this one up to bad luck. I’ve watched this play a million times and I still can’t tell how exactly he hurt himself. Without him at the top of the line-up, we are a completely different team. Bruntlett has made some impressive plays recently, but was awful in the first couple games Rollins was out. You are going to have injuries every year, but not many thought that this would be the time Rollins made his first trip to the DL.
There is certainly no reason to panic with this team. If Eaton and Moyer can keep giving us quality starts and our bullpen can stay healthy, our pitching could certainly be better than we expected. But sports is always about the here and now, and even though we are at .500, you can’t help but think we should be doing a little better.
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Oh, Pete, you still write for this blog? Although I see that in your week and a half off, you still maintained your pessimistic view of the Phillies. I thought ESPN’s bracketology for the 2009 NCAA tournament was ridiculously premature, but your prediction of a trade of a former MVP three years from now really raised the bar. I anxiously await your post following the draft in which you proclaim which high schoolers the Phillies will trade in 2018.
The Ryan Howard situation could not be more frustrating. Why won’t he make any adjustments? Baseball is all about year to year adjustments. Teams scout and learn player weaknesses and as a result, players must adjust. Hence the reason may predicted an awful season for Kendrick. Howard cannot reach the outside part of the plate. But he won’t move forward because then he could get jammed more. At least he would be making contact with the ball. He really should try that. What happened to the .313 hitter and the guy who hit balls to the opposite field? Just once I would like to see him drop down a bunt or something to the third base side and take advantage of that shift so maybe teams won’t do it anymore.