The ReclinerGM’s 2009 MLB Preview: Boston Red Sox

explanation of rankings and other team previews here

2008 Record: 95-67
Offseason Additions: John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Ramon Ramirez, Rocco Baldelli
Offseason Subtractions: Coco Crisp, Mike Timlin
Ranks (MLB):
Line-Up – 3rd
Rotation – 1st
Bullpen – 2nd
Defense – 1st tier (out of 5)
Baserunning – 2nd tier (out of 5)

KEY PLAYER: DAVID ORTIZ                                                    

It’s no secret that Papi had a down year last year, but was that just because of injury? Or was it the start of a downward slide? Ortiz’ stature most resembles that of previous Red Sox 1B Mo Vaughn, who when he went down hill, went down on a bullet train. The Red Sox have enough offensive firepower to win without Ortiz, but if they have the 2007 version of him, they will be downright dominant in all facets of the game. At 33, Ortiz is entering an age where he could drop off the map completely at any given time without really surprising anyone. Some players do, some players don’t, but players of Ortiz’ size tend to do it quicker than others. 2009 could go either way for Papi, and the Sox might follow. 

PLAYER TO WATCH: CLAY BUCHHOLZ                           

Many scouts had Buchholz tabbed as the #1 pitching prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2008 season. However, the 24-year old bombed in his first season, going 2-9 with an ERA even Adam Eaton would scoff at, 6.75. Given his talent, and the Red Sox depth at the position, they sent him back down to the minors before any permanent damage was caused. This spring, Buccholz once again has Red Sox fans wondering about his potential. In 19.2 spring innings, he has given up only 1 run (0.46 ERA) and 12 hits while striking out 15. He will likely start the season in the minors, but could be a candidate for a mid-season call-up if he continues to perform. 

PHILLY ANGLE

What hat would Curt Schilling wear in the HOF?

I’ve discussed this before, but with his retirement official, this is a good place to rehash it. First, to get it out of the way, I think Curt Schilling is a HOFer. He falls short in the win total, but a lot of that can be attributed to horrible Phillies teams and shouldn’t be held against him. But, this isn’t about whether he should be in, but rather, what hat should he wear? Here are the arguments for his 3 teams, the Red Sox, Phillies and D-Backs (sorry, Orioles)

• Phillies (1,659.1 IP, 101-78, 3.35 ERA, 1,554 K) – By far his longest tenured team and though many will point to his playoff performances later on, he was lights out in the 1993 playoffs. Were these better Phillies team and he had more national attention (and wins), this might not even be a debate.
• D-Backs (781.2 IP, 58-28, 3.14 ERA, 875) – His most dominant years are here, including his 2002 season when he had a WHIP under 1 (0.97) over 259 IP. Led the Diamondbacks to their first WS title, and shared an MVP trophy with Randy Johnson.
• Red Sox (675 IP, 53-29, 3.94 ERA, 574 K) – Not his best numbers, but had historic performances in the playoffs, helping lead the Red Sox to their first 2 World Series titles since the Gilded Age. 

My personal opinion would be to put him in where he was the most dominant, as the first Diamondback to be elected to the hall of fame. He was the best of the best during those years and had the playoff drama to top it off. What do you guys think?

QUICK HITS

Worst Contract: Julio Lugo (4  yrs, $36 million, ends in 2010)
Best Pitch: Jonathan Papelbon’s Fastball
Best Player in a Contract Year: Jason Bay, OF
Top Prospect: Lars Anderson, 1B
Best Individual Season: Ted Williams, 1941 (.406 BA, 37 HR, 120 RBI, .553 OBP, .735 SLG%, 135 runs, 27 strikeouts)
Worst Uniforms: 1908
Where’d They Come From?

- Draft, 6
- Free Agent, 6
- Trade, 3
- Amateur FA, 0

2009 OUTLOOK

1st AL East, 1st AL, 1st MLB

Well, here’s my pick to win the 2009 World Series. The Red Sox have 3 dominant starters in Beckett, Dice-K and Lester and they have depth with Wakefield, Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Buchholz. Shutting the door for them is a lights out closer in Jonathan Paplebon and a deep and talented bullpen (who I should have ranked 1st, not 2nd) led by Justin Masterson, Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez. On the offensive end, they are dangerous top to bottom with pesky hitters Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury getting on base for run producers Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis and Jason Bay. If anyone gets hurt, they of course have a great bench with Rocco Baldelli, Mark Kotsay and Julio Lugo. There are zero holes on this team, and since they spent their money like grown-ups during the off-season, they have the flexibility and prospects to make an impact deadline move to put them over the top. Between their scouting, draft strategy, prospect development, player management and carefully thought out signings, they are the best organization from top to bottom in baseball. A third title in six years would only cement it.

March 25, 2009