explanation of rankings of other team previews here
2008 Record: 97-64
Offseason Additions: Milton Bradley, Aaron Miles, Kevin Gregg
Offseason Subtractions: Kerry Wood, Mark DeRosa, Jason Marquis, Bob Howry
Ranks (MLB):
Line-Up – 6th Rotation – 6th
Bullpen – 13th
Defense – 2nd tier (out of 5)
Baserunning – 5th tier (out of 5)
KEY PLAYER: RYAN DEMPSTER
The obvious choice here is Rich Harden, but I think there is a 0% chance that he pitches anywhere close to 200 IP this season. Carlos Zambrano showed some red flags last year with a declining K/9 rate and increased H/9 rate. This is going to put a lot of pressure on Ryan Dempster to repeat his career year last when he posted a 17-6 record and a 2.96 ERA. Last year was the first time since 2002 that Dempster has thrown 200 IP in a season and his ERA was 1.86 lower than his career to date so consider me unconvinced. The Cubs have already traded Jason Marquis and Rich Hill this offseason so their starting pitching depth is thin. With lots of concerns, Dempster has to be a rock for them.
PLAYER TO WATCH: JEFF SAMARDZIJA
Sure, Samardzija has marketing appeal since he was a star WR at Notre Dame, but it also happens that he has an arm that could make him an elite pitcher. Being an ND alum, I’ve followed Samardzija’s minor league career and there’s no way to sugar coat it, it just wasn’t that good. In 3 years in the minors, as a starter, Samardzija was 14-19 with a 4.26 ERA and a mediocre 5.24 K/9. However, after being promoted to AAA, Samardzija compiled a 2.77 ERA with 65 K in 65 IP between there and the majors. His fastball can touch a legit 99 mph and he couples that with a change-up and a splitter. He’s got very similar stuff to Joba Chamberlain and is in a similar position in that he could either be dominant late-inning guy or a good starter. It will be interesting to see where he ends up and whether he can carry last year’s success into 2009. If he’s good, I hope you enjoy uncreative football puns every time he pitches.
PHILLY ANGLE
The Drought
This terrified me. The idea that there people, lots of people, that were 80 or 90 or even 100 years old that passed away without ever seeing their Cubs win a World Series. The Phillies, Eagles and Sixers falling short year after year was always depressing, but it was comforting to think that at some point, one of them would have to win a title. Law of averages. But then there was the Cubs, the exception to the idea that everybody’s time will come eventually. Up until Brad Lidge struck out Eric Hinske, one of my biggest fears, sad as it may be, was that I would die without ever seeing my team win a title. You put so much money, emotion and time into a team, it seems only fair that it doesn’t all go for nothing. It’s the fairness, or lack thereof, that drives us crazy. We, as fans, put so much into something that we have (almost) no control of. Yet, year after year we hope that this is the year it all comes together. It did for the Phillies in 2008, and if I want any team to win a title that isn’t us, I hope it’s the Cubs. For the 80-year olds.
QUICK HITS
Worst Contract: Alfonso Soriano (8 yrs, $136 million, ends in 2014)
Best Pitch: Carlos Marmol’s Slurve
Best Player in a Contract Year: Rich Harden, SP
Top Prospect: Josh Vitters, 3B
Best Individual Season: Hack Wilson, 1930 (.356 BA, 56 HR, 191 RBI, .454 OBP, .723 SLG%, 146 Runs)
Worst Uniforms: 1918
Where’d They Come From?
- Free Agent, 7 (tied for most in MLB)
- Draft, 3
- Trade, 2
- Amateur FA, 2
2009 OUTLOOK
1st NL Central, 2nd NL, 6th MLB
This is a team that is going to win a lot of games because of their offense and their division. The NL Central isn’t exactly loaded with great starters and Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Milton Bradley and Geovany Soto will make that apparent. They remind me of the 2004-2007 Yankees in that they have so much fire power, it’s going to take a lot of keep them from beating down on bad teams and making the playoffs. But in the end, it is the health of their starting pitching that is going to determine whether or not they can finally break their championship drought. I just can’t see Harden making it through a season, but if they get lucky, and we all know a lot of winning a championship is luck, he’ll be healthy at the most important time of the year, October.
Loading ...
{ 2 trackbacks }
{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
Cubbies will still be the Cubbies…they need everybody to stay healthy this season to make any noise, and it feels like the perfect storm for a bunch of their pitchers to go down. Harden is rarely healthy, Big Z is over worked, Dempster is a year removed from being in the bullpen and put a lot of miles on his arm, and Ted Lilly is inconsistent. I think they will have to rely on some younger guys pretty early on and Kevin Gregg is a downgrade to Kerry Wood (not to mention they also lost Michael Wuertz from their bullpen).
DeRosa will also be missed and I would consider him the best utility man in baseball now that Theriot is a full-time starter at SS. Any injuries can’t lead to Lou inserted DeRosa around the diamond, and they also gave up on Felix Pie and shipped him out, a guy whom a year ago (along with Rich Hill) could have fetched them Brian Roberts from the Orioles. Fukudome also struggled mightily down the stretch and who is playing centerfield for this team? Reed Johnson? Too many question marks, last year was their chance and they blew it. I don’t think they’ll even win the Central.
NEWSFLASH: Movie about Hack Wilson (baseball’s greatest unknon champion) is underway.
Mr. Pete,
Start fucking drinking.
- Manti
Manti (SEE ABOVE) is fucking brilliant.
Frank-