The ReclinerGM’s 2009 MLB Preview: Cincinnati Reds

explanation of rankings and other team previews here

2008 Record: 74-88
Offseason Additions: Willy Tavarez, Arthur Rhodes, Ramon Hernandez
Offseason Subtractions: Jeremy Affeldt, Ryan Freel
Ranks (MLB):
     Line-Up - 19th
     Rotation - 20th
     Bullpen - 15th
     Defense - 4th tier (out of 5)
     Baserunning - 3rd tier (out of 5) 

KEY PLAYER: JAY BRUCE                                                                 

Last year, this was Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr.’s team. Now, suddenly, it is 21-year old Jay Bruce’s. His Reds teammates would never come out and say it and put the pressure on a kid so young, but he is the franchise, and everyone knows it. Last year in Triple-A (keep in mind players his age should be in Single-A), Bruce put up numbers that would have looked like this over a full season: .364 BA, 35 HR, 130 RBI, 32 2B, 18 3B, 28 SB, .630 SLG%. Oh, and he’s got a great arm. He is a prototypical 5-tool wonder and the sky is the limit. But… is he too young to be up already? He quite literally forced himself into the majors, and now A LOT is expected of him. If he can step up, much like Evan Longoria did last year, the Reds could be in for an exciting season. 

PLAYER TO WATCH: JOEY VOTTO                                             

While Bruce gets all the press, another Reds prospect, Joey Votto, quietly had a great season and cemented himself as a cornerstone of the franchise. Votto quietly finished 2nd in the Rookie of the Year voting, ahead of Jair Jurgens and teammates Edison Volquez and Bruce. At 24, he hit .297 with 24 HR and 84 RBI despite not being in the starting line-up until May. He also broke the Reds rookie record for RBI in a season, previously held by Frank Robinson. Like Bruce, Votto will have to step into the void left by Dunn and Griffey. To me, this looks a lot like Howard and Utley taking the reigns from Abreu and Burrell. 

PHILLY ANGLE                                                                                                    

The Unis and the Stadium

When I think of the Reds, I often think of something I don’t like about the Phillies and something I love about them. What I don’t like, and what I’ve talked about a lot, is our uniforms. The Phillies are one of the oldest teams in baseball, and like the other old teams (the Tigers, Yankees, Cardinals) I wanted us to have a classic unique jersey. In particular, I wish we had kept these jerseys. But instead, we have a common color, and a color that can be claimed by the Reds because of, well, their name. At a quick glance, the Reds and Phillies unis can be confused, and you can’t say that about the Tigers. Oh well, I’ve come to terms with it. As for the thing I love… I remember visiting the Reds new ballpark while in college, before CBP was built, and thinking to myself “I really, really hope the Phillies can do better than this.” Great American Ballpark, aside from a big scoreboard and proximity to water, is extremely boring as has nothing that really sets it apart from other parks. I think CBP is one of the best all-around baseball experiences, and it would have really been a shame if we were stuck with a sub-par stadium for the next couple decades. 

QUICK HITS                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Worst Contract: Francisco Codero (4 yrs, $46 million, ends in 2011)
Best Pitch: Edinson Volquez’ Change-up
Best Player in a Contract Year: Ramon Hernandez (2010 option)
Top Prospect: Yonder Alonso, 1B
Best Individual Season: Joe Morgan, 1976 (.320 BA, 27 HR, 111 RBI, .444 OBP, .576 SLG%, 60 SB, 41 K)
Worst Uniforms: 1936
Where’d They Come From?

          - Trade, 7 
          - Draft, 3
          - Free Agent, 3
          - Amateur FA, 1

2009 OUTLOOK                                                                                                       

2nd NL Central, 10th NL, 18th MLB

I like this team. They have the makings of a true ace in Edinson Volquez and I expect a bounce back year from former ace Aaron Harang. Johnny Cueto and Bronson Arroyo are decent enough starters to round out the rotation. They made some quiet moves to improve their line-up, signing the pesky Willy Taveras (who had 68 steals last year in just 479 ABs) and trading for solid catcher Ramon Hernandez. They will also be getting SS Alex Gonzalez back from missing all of last year. Aside from Bruce, Taveras could be the key to their season. If he can get on base and reek some havoc, this could be a dangerous line-up (don’t forget Brandon Phillips and Edwin Encarnation). They might be a year or two away from being real good, but in a down division, they could surprise early.