explanation of rankings and other team previews here
2008 Record: 86-75
Offseason Additions: Mike Hampton, Jason Michaels
Offseason Subtractions: Randy Wolf, Mark Loretta
Ranks (MLB):
Line-Up – 25th
Rotation – 26th
Bullpen – 10th
Defense – 1st tier (out of 5)
Baserunning – 2nd tier (out of 5)
KEY PLAYER: WANDY RODRIGUEZ
With Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada, Hunter Pence et al, the Astros are going to score some runs. But after Roy Oswalt, there isn’t much that will keep the other team from doing so. The bottom of their rotation is downright bad with Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler and Brandon Backe. The only pitcher who could really be a pleasant surprise is Rodriguez. Wandy was very solid last year with a 3.54 ERA and 131 K in 137.1 IP. However, he has never pitched 200 IP in a season. I don’t think he is a long term solution of the Astros, but he is a candidate for a fluky season.
PLAYER TO WATCH: MICHAEL BOURN
Michael Bourn might just be the fastest player in baseball (if the MLB would adopt my home-to-third competition during the all-star game we would find out) but it doesn’t matter how fast you are if you hit .229, as Bourn did last year. He hit .277 for the Phillies, and I know he’s a better hitter than .229. The Astros wanted to keep Bourn in the line-up because he’s lethal on the basepaths, but his average forced them sit him. Consider this: Bourn had 41 steals on only 107 hits. If he were to hit just .260, stay in the line-up all year and get 700 AB, he could have 180 hits and and 70 steals. All he has to do is slap some singles and he could be a real disrupter.
PHILLY ANGLE
Ed Wade Era, Part 2
Anyone else shocked when Ed Wade got another job? Part of me was, but part of me wasn’t. Sure he was around when the Phillies drafted much of their core including Rollins, Utley, Howard and Hamels, but that was predominantly the work of the scouting department, and for most of his tenure, the organization lacked any sort of depth. The farm system he left the team with was one of the worst in basball. Wade managed to trade away the 2 cornerstones of the organization, Scott Rolen and Curt Schilling, without getting any elite prospects in return. On the other hand, he fleeced the Astros in the Billy Wagner deal, and signed Jim Thome. Wade was able to turn us into a winner, but we could never make that leap because he couldn’t tweak the way that Gillick could. The only diamond in the rough he found was Victorino, and he never made moves at the deadline to put the team over the top. He was good, but I don’t see him ever leading a team to a title. With the Astros poor pitching staff, and league-worst farm system, he’s got a lot of work ahead of him.
QUICK HITS
Worst Contract: Carlos Lee (6 yrs, $100 million, ends in 2012. 4 yrs, $74 million remaining)
Best Pitch: Jose Valverde’s Fastball
Best Player in a Contract Year: Miguel Tejada, SS
Top Prospect: Jason Castro, C
Best Individual Season: Mike Scott, 1986 (18-10, 275.3 IP, 182 H, 306 K, 2.22 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, Cy Young)
Worst Uniforms: 1982
Where’d They Come From?
- Free Agent, 5
- Trade, 5
- Draft, 3
- Amateur FA, 1
2009 OUTLOOK
4th NL Central, 12th NL, 22nd MLB
The Astros are 2 starting pitchers short of being in the playoff mix. But if I’m an Astros fan, I’m not worried about this season, I’m worried about the future of this team. All of the stars on this team are on the back-end of, or past, their prime. And the Astros have no help on the way with the worst farm system in baseball. Once Roy Oswalt is gone, they are either going to have to spend a great deal of money on pitching, or they will be one of the worst teams in baseball for a couple years. This year, they will be OK, but I imagine the doom and gloom might not be too far behind.
Wandy Rod? I just spewed my beer all over the television. Fuck.
It’s only a matter of time before Wade trades Oswalt to us. We need to find/sign Travis Lee, Omar Daal and Nelson Figuroa off the street to make the deal though. Although we might need to find one more ex-Phil, Ed Wade, great player to get Oswalt….Robert Person???
maybe we could sign person for a RH off the bench. he had a couple crazy games as a hitter.
as my bud mitch williams said…its great that michael bourn is maybe the fastest player in baseball…”..but you cant steal first base” in reference to his horrible batting average…
Hey now, don’t go picking on Rico Brogna. I remember being optimistic back in ’98 looking at the young group we had, and Brogna was a part of that. Glanville had a good season, Lieberthal was emerging, Rolen won ROY in ’97 and looked like a cornerstone, and Abreu looked to be a gem (and an absolute steal of a pick up). Too bad we had no starting pitching beyond Schilling. I mean when your other starters are Mark Portugal, Tyler Green, Carlton Loewer, Matt Beech, and Mike Grace….Yikes! When you get excited about the late season pick up and subsequent surge of Paul Byrd, you know you’ve pretty much bottomed out.
Wondering if Ed Wade and Shawn Chacon ironed out their differences over the club luncheon menu. Shawn’s been resting his arm since last June. As Astros are in need of pitching, a magnaminous/practical Wade might extend a tryout offer provided the organization could situate them apart at the annual Spring Training Heimlich Maneuver workshop. Shawn gives up a hit an inning, and walks 4 for every 5 Ks, but he’s only balked 3 times in over 900 career innings! And he’ll notch ya 6 or 7 wins if you pencil him in as your #5 starter … and leave him eat in peace without being hectored about looking in some mirror that’s nowhere in sight.
bski-
some tidbits from Jayson Stark, gotta like Howard working hard on his D. If he can get that going and hit for a better average, I’m much more OK with overpaying.
• Ryan’s Hope Dept.: Has there ever been a more riveting arbitration case than Ryan Howard’s?
Correct answer: Heck, no.
Here’s why:
• No position player in the history of arbitration has ever come out of this process with $18 million — which is the payday Howard seeks.
• Then again, no position player has ever gone through arbitration and received $14 million — the amount the Phillies offered — either.
• So how large is an $18 million salary request by a player who is in only his second year of arbitration eligibility? It’s nearly double the previous record for a hitter in his second year. The old record was $10.5 million, by Derek Jeter in 2000. (Jeter eventually settled at the midpoint — of $10 million.)
• And remember this: Howard has just three-plus years of big league service time. He’s looking for a salary well beyond what any player with five years of service time has gotten. Jeter filed at $18.5 million as a five-plus-year player but wound up earning $11 million in the first year of his 10-year, $189 million contract
So what does all this mean? It means this is just about an impossible case to handicap, because there are no comparable players for the arbitrators to use for reference.
Ultimately, then, this case will come down to the size of the raise this man is seeking — and whether Howard and his agent, Casey Close, can justify it.
The Phillies are getting good reviews for offering a $4 million raise to a player who was already in historic salary territory. And remember, their $14 million offer would be a record for any arb-eligible hitter.
On the other hand, the Phillies did file slightly under the $14.25 million figure the Yankees submitted in Jeter’s final arbitration year (before settling). And Howard has been linked in the past with Miguel Cabrera, who will make $15 million this year (in what would have been his third arbitration season).
So although the Phillies’ case looks more winnable than it did last year, one thing we’ve come to learn about arbitration is: You never know. Ever.
• More Ryan-osity: Meanwhile, word out of Missouri is that Howard has devoted a sizable percentage of his winter workouts to addressing his defensive issues.
One friend who spoke with him says Howard knows he needs to be a “more complete player.” So his three areas of concentration this offseason have been (1) defense, (2) footwork around first base and (3) conditioning.
Once upon a time, when he was in the International League, Howard was voted by the managers — in a Baseball America poll — as the league’s best defensive first baseman. Last season, though, he was one error away from becoming the second first baseman in the past 25 years to commit 20 errors in a season. (The other: Pittsburgh’s Kevin Young, in 1999.)
So if Howard wants to finish his career as a first baseman, he clearly recognizes it’s time to fix his defensive regression.
Pete Schilling, Rolen, Abreu: Hall Of Fame talents. Had each individal career panned out just a bit differently, HOF inductees. At this date, Schilling may get in, Abreu has a shot with continued production, Rolen won’t due to injuries’ toll. As a fan, I’m happy they passed through.
Regarding Wade/Chacon: still makes me laugh too. Chalk it up to a clash of cultures: Cerebral vs. Visceral. Or Dumb vs. Dumber.
Yeah Pete, that ’98 team really looked like it was going to be the start of a good run for us…..until you got a look at the pitching. Once I listed the starters in my previous post, I had had enough. I couldn’t bring myself to continue on with the bullpen.
Talking about this gets me remembering how good Schilling was than and how much fun it was to watch his starts. I remember an early season game in ’98 when Schilling went up against McGwire and struck him out 3 times. I remember the crowd going nuts and Schilling just reaching back and throwing one fastball after another right by McGwire. I remember Schilling flat out challenging McGwire to hit his fastball and going up the ladder on him until McGwire would strike out on a pitch up around his neck. I also remember Schilling matching up against Greg Maddux in two consecutive starts (once in ATL and once in PHIL), and getting the better of him both times, that year. Schilling always seemed to thrive on those types of personal challenges and he usually stepped up and delivered. Then we had to wait until the 4 other stiffs made their starts in between before we could see him do it again.
Too bad the Phils pissed away the opportunity they had with that group. Instead of making an honest effort to assemble a pitching staff, all we got were excuses like the “bad lease” they had at the Vet which only served to damage the Schilling and Rolen relationships beyond repair.
Pete,
brought back some memories of those teams. Also in regards to Carlton Loewer (former 1st round pick) I remember being at his first start (CG, 5h, 2er, 8k’s vs the Sammy Sosa cubs) and thinking he was the next big thing….yikes…wonder what he is doing these days
bruce chen