explanation of rankings and other team previews here
2008 Record: 88-75
Offseason Additions: Luis Ayala
Offseason Subtractions: Adam Everett
Ranks (MLB):
Line-Up - 21st
Rotation - 8th
Bullpen - 12th
Defense - 4th tier (out of 5)
Baserunning - 2nd tier (out of 5)
KEY PLAYER: FRANCISCO LIRIANO
One could argue that no player is more key to their team’s success this year than Liriano and the Twins. Liriano came on like a bat out of hell in 2006, sculpting a 12-3 record, 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 144 K’s in 121 IP. Then, like many young pitchers, his elbow caved to the increased strain and he sat out all of 2007 and much of 2008 after Tommy John surgery. He did finish 2008 with a post-all-star ERA of 2.74 in 65.2 IP. This season, the Twins need him to be an ace, and if he stays healthy, he has the potential to put up numbers similar to Johan Santana. Like Santana, Liriano also has the potentially to carry this team to a division title.
PLAYER TO WATCH: CARLOS GOMEZ
Gomez was the centerpiece in the Johan Santana deal last year and in his first year in the majors, we learned 2 things: he’s fast, and he’s already one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. But what we didn’t learn is whether or not he can hit. He hit .258 for the season with a mediocre .296 OBP and downright bad .360 SLG. He was never a fantastic hitter in the minor leagues, but he can certainly be better than this. If he can get his average into the .275 range, OBP around .330 and SLG up to .430, he will be an extremely valuable player when that is paired with his defense and base running.
PHILLY ANGLE
Playing the “right” way
There’s nothing that frustrates a Philly baseball fan more than bad fundamentals. Ryan Howard not making the throw to 2nd, baserunners not getting from first to third, not getting a bunt down, making unproductive outs, hitting the ball on the ground with a man on 3rd and 1 out, and so on and so forth. The Phillies have gotten better at this in recent years, but no one does, or has done it better this decade than the Minnesota Twins. More than any other organization, the Twins stress fundamentals in their player development from rookie ball to the big show. They play baseball the right way and you won’t play for manager Ron Gardenhire if you don’t. People wonder how the Twins can win 88 games after losing Johan Santana and Torii Hunter last year, or be competitive since 2001 without having a competitive payroll and starting players like Nick Punto and Doug Mientkiewicz. Part of it is their great scouting, but a big part is the fact that they don’t get beat by the small stuff and the pick away at the opposition. As Ozzie Guillen says, they are just a bunch of piranhas.
QUICK HITS
Worst Contract: Michael Cuddyer (3 yrs, $24 million, ends in 2010)
Best Pitch: Francisco Liriano’s Slider
Best Player in a Contract Year: Mike Lamb
Top Prospect: Ben Revere, OF
Best Individual Season: Johan Santana, 2004 (20-6, 2.61 ERA, 0.921 WHIP, 228 IP, 265 K, Cy Young)
Worst Uniforms: 1969
Where’d They Come From?
- Draft, 9
- Trade, 6
- Free Agent, 0
- Amateur FA, 0
2009 OUTLOOK
1st AL Central, 5th AL, 8th MLB
The AL Central was the hardest division to predict for me, and it came down to the Twins and the Indians. The tiebreaker for me was the rotations. I’m betting on Liriano having a good year (if he has a great year, the Twins might win 90 games), and for Scott Baker (3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP in 172.1 IP) and Kevin Slowey (3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 160.1 IP) to be solid the whole year. Nick Blackburn will likely do worse than his 4.05 ERA last year, but will keep the Twins in games. On offense, they have a present day Biggio and Bagwell in Mauer and Morneau, who can carry the team by themselves. If I was starting a team from scratch, Mauer would be among the players I would consider picking first. Michael Cuddyer is back from injury and will add a much needed run producer to a line-up that includes the solid Jason Kubel and the enigmatic super-talent Delmon Young. I don’t understand why the Twins haven’t made a modest offer (1 year, $4 mill) for Orlando Cabrera, who could replace Nick Punto at SS and greatly improve the line-up, but that is the life of the small-market franchise. The AL Central is going to be close all year, and any team but the Royals could win it, but in this case, I’m going with Gardenhire and his piranhas.
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Thanks Pete. As a Twins diehard I have been waiting for this. The AL Central is indeed very hard to predict. The Twins, Indians, White Sox, and Tigers are all mediocre and all have the chance to be pretty good or pretty bad. For the Twins to have a chance, the bullpen must improve. Normally a strong point for the Twins, they were downright bad last year. One thing is certain: Luis Ayala is NOT the answer. The guy had a 5.71 ERA in the National League last year. I don’t even want to imagine what that translates into in the American League. Hopefully, the powers that be give the ball to Jose Mijares early and often. In his 10 September appearances last year he had a 0.87 ERA. If the Twins can bridge the cap between the starters and Joe Nathan, they should definitely compete for the division.
You make a fantastic point about Orlando Cabrera. In fact, it is so good of a point that it has ruined my night and probably my week. Nick Punto, although admirable for his scrappiness and hustle, is not a big league caliber player.
Well I could easily write about 2000 words on the Twins, but I’ll stop as no one else cares and I don’t want to become bski, haha lol.
Gargs….Sticks and stones…..haha!
I just try to bring the water to the horses in an effort to get/keep a conversation going, and I can carry a lot of water.
GARGS-
What is your predicted order of finish for the division? The Indians seem like the logical choice, but I couldn’t get past their 3-4-5 starters, who are horrible. and I doubt Cliff Lee has the same type of year and who knows what they will get from Carmona. The Tigers were my pick to win the World Series last year, so they certainly have the talent. I could see them coming around, but I didn’t want to pick them again after they so embarrassed me last year (and their starting pitching is thin as well). The White Sox won the division last year, but lost a lot of players this year, but you never know. And I think while they have no shot to win the division, the Royals will be improved and better than people think.
Pete, I nominate 3 other arms for best pitching season, as opposed to Santana ‘04: Camilo Pasqual ‘63, Jim Kaat ‘66 and Dean Chance ‘67 (take your pick). Much superior workhorse qualities – complete games, shutouts, innings pitched – are the basis, along with the other comparable numbers.
JS 21-9/ 1 CG/1 SO/228 IP/156 H/24 HR/54 BB/265 K/2.61 ERA
CP 21-9/18 CG/3 SO/248 IP/205 H/21 HR/81 BB/202 K/2.46 ERA
JK 25-13/19 CG/3 SO/304 IP/271 H/29 HR/55 BB/205 K/2.75 ERA
DC 20-14/18 CG/5 SO/283 IP/244 H/17 HR/68 BB/220 K/2.73 ERA
Also; Pasqual .250 & 12, Kaat .195 & 13, Chance .033 & 3, Santana .000 & 0 – batting avg. & RBI numbers!
Twins of 60s were a competitive, successful franchise; above 3 were mound beacons. Maybe you’re sticking strictly to this modern era in drawing your selections. Wanted to mention the other sterling seasons.
jjg-
Pete CG, SO, ERA and Wins are what it’s about in my book. Hits allowed and Ks are indicators, but not the most important predicates of successful pitching … they’re the flashy mound equivalent of HRs (”chicks dig the long ball”) … obvious, exciting in the moment, but not solely reliable metrics.
Your highlighted Santana stats are Koufax-like and impressive, but they also point to his having a mediocre April and May in the long 162 game march … should be factored.
Steroid era was/is a watered down version of the game. 50s & 60s, the golden era. My opinion.
Your lack of commentary on 60s Twins hurlers, comparitively, is a weakness is your stance.
But I’d be thrilled with Cole Hamels matching any of the 4 listed seasons this (or any other) year.
correction: in your stance.
The 3 seasons you mentioned were certainly great seasons, but by no means historic.
“The only thing that these pitchers have on his season are IP and CG” – FALSE. Aside from their vast superiority in completed games, each exceeded your nominee in shutouts thrown, 5, 3 & 3 to his 1. In addition to that:
- Pascual notched the same number of wins while achieving an ERA that is .15 LOWER than Santana’s!
- Kaat earned 4 more wins while walking 1 more batter in 76 more innings!
- Chance gave up 7 fewer HRS while pitching 55 more innings!
All the seasons are historical, and all the seasons deserve a clear-eyed assessment. That more of their colleagues knew how to pitch than did/does Santana’s contempories, doesn’t detract in any way from what Pasqual, Kaat and Chance achieved individually in ‘63, ‘66 and ‘67, respectively.
If you see Santana ‘04 as the bellwether season, that’s your perspective, not mine. I’ve seen each pitch in their prime; your guy is good, but doesn’t eclipse the others. “Historic” and “ordinary” – bloated terminology re this discussion.
- on shutouts….same vein as CG and IP. different era. its like saying that Honus Wagner’s 4 HR in 1910 carry the same value as Carlos Ruiz’ in 2008. Impressive and relevant, but needs perspective. Different eras.
- already spoke to the ERA. sub 3 in the 60s is not the same as sub 3 in the 2000’s. on average, 30 pitchers did it each year from 63-67. Same type of achievement as hitting 25 HR today.
- its very easy to give up less HRs when the hitters aren’t hitting them off anybody.
- I believe the current pitchers “know how to pitch” just as well as the 60s guys. It’s been well documented that smaller parks, lighter bats, juiced balls, and in Santana’s case, PED’s, accounted for higher runs scored and higher ERAs.
if you want to look at a stat that doesn’t discriminate against era, home park and all that, look to ERA+. This is developed by baseball-reference.com for exactly this, to debate different seasons from different eras. here is how the 4 seasons in question rank, with their all-time rank (1900 on, 200+ IP as criteria) in parentheses.
I appreciate your love of the 60s, a great era for pitching lovers, but you won’t find a stat that takes into account the state of the game that will put those seasons anywhere close to Santana’s. In my opinion, you can’t compare the seasons apples to apples anymore than you can compare George Mikan to Shaq or Lou Gehrig to Todd Helton. I’m sure you’ve used the eras argument on here at some point or another.
Dean Chance’s 1964 season vs. Santana? That’s a different story.
Can’t reply to ‘ERA+’ metric’s validity – “ratio of league’s ERA (adjusted to pitcher’s ballpark) to that of the pitcher.” Sounds scientific but I can’t imagine that one numerical tabulation by one website’s intelligence properly objectifies and accurately assesses MLB performance since 1900, though it probably carries some degree of interest for the delvers. Looking at it:
6 great pitchers, their greatest (or most storied) seasons:
Ford ‘61 ERA+ 117
Koufax ‘63 159
McLain ‘68 154
Gibson ‘68 258
Carlton ‘72 182
Santana ‘04 182
What do those numbers actually mean when attempting to compare?
[Are Carlton's and Santana's seasons identical in their dynamics and accomplishments? The number says so.] How has a balance for the variables of each player’s performance (including stadiums, teammates, opponents, weather conditions, etc.) been reached? Do the different weights and measures as applied have impeccable standing? I doubt it (with certainty) since they where generated by human beings.
Comparing players of different eras has inherent obstacles but our minds/memories, common sense and projection ability can afford good educated guesses and approximations.
Have enjoyed the back and forth, Pete.
indeed JJG….looks like some of the baseball juices are flowing again…
Pete-
The AL Central is an absolute crap shoot. I envision the champ with a meager 88-89 wins. I think the Tigers have the highest ceiling but the Twins have the fewest question marks. It could definitely be a 4-team race. Although I really admired the way the Indians have been run the last few years, I question the additions of Pavano and Wood. If Victor Matinez, Pronk, and Carmona don’t rebound in a serious way, I see the Indians falling a little short. If Verlander, Bonderman, Zumaya, and Shef don’t rebound in a serious way, I also see the Tigers falling a little short. The White Sox don’t seem to have as many questions marks but I’m hesitant to pick them. I guess my prediction would look something like this:
1. Twins
2. Tigers
3. White Sox
4. Indians
5. Royals
As the degenerate gambler that I am, I have no confidence in these picks and wouldn’t wager a nickel on them. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Indians actually ended up on top. Also, if all the teams are bunched together with mediocre records like I expect, even the Royals could have a chance if they get hot the last two months of the season. I totally waffled, but those are my picks.
Pete-
I was taking a look at the single season leaders in regards to ERA+. Really shows how amazing Pedro Martinez was at the top of his game.
5 Seasons in the Top 50 All-Time…
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/ERAplus_season.shtml
Jesse-
That the pedestrian Dennis Lamp ‘81 (7-6, 127 IP, 27 GS, 3 CG, 0 shutouts, 43 BB, 71 K, 2.41 ERA) is ranked 479th should clearly inform you about the value of ‘ERA+’ as it pertains to a fair evaluation of individual pitching seasons in a historical context. It equates Lamp’s performance to Jim Bunning ‘67 (17-15, 302 IP, 40 GS, 16 CG, 6 shutouts, 73 BB, 253 K, 2.29 ERA). That measuring stick is a joke; give it credence at your own folly.
jjg-
wouldn’t call it a “joke” but it def. needs the pitchers to have a similar amount of IP for it to be relevant since it doesn’t take IP into account.
not a be all, end all stat, but useful in the right situation.
Pete, Wouldn’t call it “useful in the right situation” unless it supports one’s argument, or one wants to distort. I gave just one example of it’s unintended hilarity (due to time constraint). To each his own.
I just prefer to not look at stats in a vaccum
ditto, and looking forward to more eyewitnessing soon
Well it looks like the Twins are close to signing Joe Crede. Although I think Cabrera would be a more valuable asset to the Twins, Crede is a gamer who plays the game the right way. IF he stays healthy (which seems to be a big if), he could be a very solid addition to the lineup.