The ReclinerGM’s 2009 MLB Preview: NL East’s Everyday Eight

Alright, I did my NL East pitching preview, and what’s follows is the “Everyday Eight” preview. Same format as before, only this time, the Nationals are actually more than decent. 

Catcher

1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Jesus Flores, Nationals
3. Brian Schneider, Mets
4. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
5. John Baker, Marlins

McCann is in a class by himself and depending on the health of Joe Mauer, could be the best catcher in all of baseball this season. I have a feeling he is going to be killing us for the next 5-6 years. Flores was impressive in the short time he was up for the Nats last year. The bottom 3 on this list are pretty much interchangeable, as they all are low-end catchers. Ruiz came on at the end of last year and was great in the playoffs, but he’s got to prove it in the regular season (i.e., not bat .219 and slug .300). If he doesn’t one of the Phillies young catchers will show him the door in 2010. 

First Base

1. Ryan Howard, Phillies
2. Carlos Delgado, Mets
3. Adam Dunn, Nationals
4. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
5. Casey Kotchman, Braves

People who think everything went right for the Phillies last year seem to forget (among other things) just how bad Ryan Howard was for half the season. On May 20th he was batting .183. On July 1, he had it up to .218. On August 31st, he had a .234 average and finally, 2 days before the season was over, he breached .250 for the first time. And he still led all of baseball in HR and RBI, and by a wide margin. This spring he came to camp motivated, down 20 lbs, a new contract and has been mashing it in spring training. The sky is the limit for him this year. Delgado had a spectacular comeback year last season. I don’t see him hitting quite as well this season, but with his work ethic, I don’t think he’ll regress as much as most 37-year olds. The Nationals actually have a decent line-up. Sure, Dunn strikes out a lot, but he’s good for 40 HR and 100 RBI, something the Nats have not had in their line-up since their brief affair with Alfonso Soriano. If Zimmerman meets expectations, Milledge improves, and Nick Johnson stays somewhat healthy, they are going to be a lot peskier than last year. 

Second Base

1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Kelly Johnson, Braves
3. Dan Uggla, Marlins
4. Luis Castillo, Mets
5. Ronnie Belliard, Nationals

Utley is a no-brainer at the top. Uggla might get more pub because he hits some HR’s, but Kelly Johnson is the better baseball player. He strikes out less, hits for a higher average and very well could break out this season. Castillo has to be better than last season, but we’ve said that ourselves about guys like David Bell and Adam Eaton. 

Third Base

1. David Wright, Mets
2. Chipper Jones, Braves
3. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
4. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
5. Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins

You could make the argument that David Wright is the best all-around player in baseball. Hits for high average and power, runs the bases well and plays a gold glove 3B. I wouldn’t put him ahead of Pujols, but he’s in the group right behind him. Jones would be in that group if he ever played 162 games, but he hasn’t played more than 140 since 2003. Zimmerman looked like he would be the caliber of the top-2, but hasn’t yet panned out. He’s only 24, so this could be the year he does. Feliz, though an upgrade over our previous 3B, continues the trend of the Phillies having low-end 3B since Scott Rolen left. 

Short Stop

1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Jose Reyes, Mets
4. Yunel Escobar, Braves
5. Cristian Guzman, Nationals

The 3 best short-stops in the NL East happen to be the 3 best in the MLB as well. The big debate here, and it’s a great debate really, is who would you rather have in 2009: Jimmy Rollins or Jose Reyes. I doubt you’ll find a Mets fan who says Rollins or a Phillies fan who says Reyes. Let’s look at the average season for each player over the last 3 years, because numbers are unbiased. 

They are virtually even on the first 4 categories, Rollins has more HR and RBI, Reyes steals more bases (and gets thrown out far more) and he also gets on base a little more, while Rollins, thanks to the HRs, has a higher SLG%. How about baserunning? Baseball prospectus has Rollins as the 4th best baserunner in the MLB, Reyes the 5th. You could argue that Reyes has more room to improve. You could also argue that Rollins half season last year drops these numbers. Picking between these two based on the above just comes down to personal opinion. 

But, the reason I’m picking Rollins, by a hair, is because the one area where there is a big difference is defense, and that is vitally important to a short stop’s value to their club. Rollins has won the last 2 gold gloves at SS, and has much higher ratings than Reyes in the more complicated metrics like zone rating and range factor. In my opinion, Rollins’ glove breaks the tie between the two.

Center Field

1. Carlos Beltran, Mets
2. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
3. Shane Victorino, Phillies
4. Cameron Maybin, Marlins
5. Jordan Schafer, Braves

Victorino is a fan favorite and made a name for himself nationally in the playoffs last year, but I think Lastings Milledge (seen wearing the Nationals much improved new road unis) is going to be an improved player this year, and I think we know what we are going to get from Victorino. A player to watch this year is Cameron Maybin. He is one of the top prospects in baseball and was the jewel of the Miguel Cabrera / Dontrelle Willis deal. He still has some development to do, but he’s a 5-tool talent who the Marlins will probably trade away once he gets really good. 

Left Field

1. Raul Ibanez, Phillies
2. Josh Willingham, Nationals
3. Cody Ross, Marlins
4. Dan Murphy, Mets
5. Garret Anderson, Braves

We know about Ibanez (113 RBI a season over last 3), but not what we’ll get from him when he’s not the focus of an offense. Willingham is good for about 25 HR, 80 RBI when healthy, and he’s healthy. Ross had one of the quieter 23 HR / 73 RBI seasons I can remember. Garret Anderson was probably the least sought after player ever with 2,300 career hits and coming off a .293/15 HR / 84 RBI season. Based on his minor league numbers, that type of season would probably be Dan Murphy’s ceiling, but I’m putting him over Anderson since Garret has had trouble staying on the field the last several years. All in all, this position is pretty close. 

Right Field

1. Jayson Werth, Phillies
2. Ryan Church, Mets
3. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
4. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
5. Austin Kearns, Nationals

This is kind of a weak right field crew. Werth hit at a 36 HR / 100 RBI pace, but wasn’t inserted as the starter until 1/3 of the way through the season. Chuch is a doubles machine when healthy, but he’s only been healthy once in his career. The bottom 3 are all guys who had great expectations coming into their careers and have fallen well short. However, they are still young enough to turn things around. 

Overview

A little unscientific averaging? Sounds good to me!

1. Phillies, 2.13
2. Mets, 2.50
3. Nationals, 3.38
4. Braves, 3.50
5. Marlins, 3.50

I think the bottom 3 are in the right order, but the Mets and Phillies are close enough for a deeper look. Instead of comparing the 2 by position, lets look at them by slot in the line-up. 

Honestly, picking between these two line-up is just splitting hairs. If you make me pick one, I’m going to pick the Phillies because I’m bias, but in the spirit of being as objective as possible, I’m going to put these at 1 and 1b (but I’m going to put the Phillies at 1a)

NL East Everyday Eight Rankings

      1a. Phillies (Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Feliz, Ruiz)

      1b. Mets (Reyes, Murphy, Wright, Delgado, Beltran, Church, Castillo, Schneider)

      3. Nationals (Guzman, Milledge, Zimmerman, Dunn, Willingham, Kearns, Belliard, Flores)

      4. Braves (Escobar, Kotchman, Jones, McCann, Anderson, Johnson, Francoeur, Blanco)

      5. Marlins (Maybin, Uggla, Ramirez, Cantu, Hermida, Ross, Baker, Bonaficio)

Tagged as: 2009 MLB Preview

April 3, 2009