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The 3rd part of our 5-part Phillies preview will focus on what was the Phillies greatest strength in 2008, their bullpen. Since there are a lot more pitchers to go through here, we will look at only 2 categories, where they can improve, and what I expect in 2009.
Clay Condrey, RHP, Long Relief
Where he can improve: Condrey really is what he is at this point, a 33-year old reliever who rarely pitches in close games and eats up innings in blowouts or when a starter gets lit-up early. His ERA was much better in 2008 (3.26) than 2007 (5.04) but he actually gave up more H/9 in 2008, meaning he was probably aided by a little luck. Condrey is really just an arm in the pen, and will likely not see many important innings, so the best thing he can do is just stay healthy.
What I expect in 2009: Condrey gives up entirely too many hits (85 in 69 IP in 2008) to be expected to have an ERA in the 3.26 area. I expect him to retain his mop-up duty role, and put up an ERA around 4.50 unless he has improved his stuff in the off-season.
Chad Durbin, RHP, Long Relief
Where he can improve: Durbin had a career year last year, and likely won’t be better this year, so asking for improvement is nitpicking, but here goes. Durbin was much worse away from home last year (4.37 road ERA, 1.88 home ERA). Whether or not this is a case of nerves is anyones guess, but it would be nice to see some more consistency. Also, Durbin faltered big time down the stretch after being nearly perfect for most of the year (1.66 ERA April-July, 5.40 ERA August-September). He needs to keep himself in top shape throughout the year to avoid a end of season let down again.
What I expect in 2009: Durbin is probably the pitcher I have the most trouble setting expectations for this year. He pitched out of his mind to start the season, but never really showed overpowering stuff. He was horrible at the end of the season once his stuff deteriorated a bit. He strikes me as someone who had a great year, but is not a dominant reliever, I see him with a 4.00 ERA this year, and perhaps frustrating some fans who expect him to repeat his performance.
Chan Ho Park, RHP, Long Relief
Where he can improve: I haven’t seen Park pitch much, except against the Phillies in the NLCS last year, but if he’s still throwing 96mph heat, I’m excited to see him go. He might end up as the 5th starter, as I imagine he is very motivated, but for now, I have Happ getting that job and Park taking over the Rudy Seanez role.
What I expect in 2009: Frankly, I expect Park to be upset that he didn’t win the 5th starter job. I think he is counting on it, and I think that Happ will win it. I hope we avoid a Jon Lieber situation where he pouts and then throws up a 10+ ERA out of the bullpen, and I think we will as nothing Park has done would infer that’s the case. From what Park has said, he’s intent on starting, but will accept a bullpen role. I think that Park will be used sparingly out of the bullpen with an ERA around 3.00 and will give us about 3-4 quality starts during the year as pitchers get banged up and need a rest.
Scott Eyre, LHP, Lefty Specialist
Where he can improve: His focus. Last year the Cubs dumped Eyre due to poor performance (7.15 ERA) and after the Phillies picked him up and he excelled (1.88 ERA). However, this wasn’t the first this has happened. In 2002, Eyre was tossing a 4.97 ERA when the Blue Jays dumped him to the Giants, after the trade, he put up 1.59 ERA and was solid for the Giants for the next couple seasons. The Phillies were able to help JC Romero get his pitching focus in order, and I believe they can do the same with Eyre.
What I expect in 2009: A season similar to the one he had with the Giants in 2003. 60 IP, 3.30 ERA. Eyre will be counted on early and often with JC Romero out on suspension. He seemed comfortable in the playoff stretch for us last year, hopefully that will carry on into 2009.
JC Romero, LHP, 7th inning
Where he can improve: As we all know, Romero isn’t going to be improving on anything the first 50 games of the season because of his suspension. When he gets back, he can improve on his control. 38 walks in 59 IP is way too high. When he’s throwing strikes, Romero is extremely hard to hit (opponents have hit just .199 off him since he’s been a Phillie), but he often has to wiggle out of tough spots because of his control. This has been a career long problem and is what prevents him from being the premier LH reliever in baseball, so we can really only hope for a modest improvement.
What I expect in 2009: A lot of people are acting as though we won’t see Romero this season. He’ll be active for 112 games and by July, everyone will forget he was ever suspended. Hopefully, the positive side of the suspension is that he will be focused and fresh in September. I expect more tense moments when Romero is in there and many more jubilant points to the sky after big strikeouts. A sub-3 ERA, and hopefully a couple more WS victories, is in the cards.
Ryan Madson, RHP, Set-Up
Where he can improve: How about throwing 96mph the whole year? Madson reached back and dominated in the post-season with a suddenly devastating fastball to compliment his change-up. I think if he develops a confident swagger in those 2 pitches, he could really become a feared reliever in the NL.
What I expect in 2009: I expect big things of Madson in 2009. He’s 28, he’s finally found his niche, he just got a big contract, and he was the breakout star of the 2009 playoffs. Madson has been a long reliever, middle reliever, late-inning reliever, starter and even closer in his Phillies career, but now he knows exactly what his job is going into spring training, and I think he will have his best season. He’s posted a 3.05 ERA each of the last two seasons, I think he can drop that into the 2.50 range this year.
Brad Lidge, RHP, Closer
Where he can improve: Hard to improve upon a perfect season, but Lidge, like Romero, can work on his control a little bit. Particularly with the first batter of the inning. It seemed as though Lidge would either come in razor sharp or completely off for the first hitter and that would really dictate how the rest of the inning would go. Improving his control on that first hitter should be a focus point for him this season.
What I expect in 2009: Lidge possesses one of the most unhittable pitches in all of baseball in his unique slider. He used that pitch to set a Phillies record for K/9 rate in a season (11.95 K/9). He also happens to be the MLB’s all-time leader in that category at 12.49 K/9. As long as his slider has that bite, he will be good. Lidge won’t be perfect again this season, and if he hits a rough patch, I hope the Phillies fans stay behind him. I think they will.
Summary
The Phils bullpen was the best in the NL last year, and while I expect them to be solid against this year, I think it is a lot to ask for them to repeat that feat. Many pitchers had career years and are due to regress a little. Sergio Escalona, Mike Zagurski and non-roster invities Gary Majewski, Blaine Neal and Mike Koplove could see some time in the bullpen. Escalona, a 25-year old from Venezuela, is the most likely to surprise.
The Phillies are going to need more out of their starters this year because the bullpen bailed them out of too many games last year and can’t be counted on again for that kind of performance. However, I do expect a top-5 unit in the NL and I’m very confident with our 8-9th inning situation.
2009 and Beyond
It’s hard to say who will make an impact in the bullpen in the future because most pitchers come in as starters and then get moved the bullpen, like Ryan Madson. I have read a couple scouts say that Kyle Drabek will be the eventual successor to Brad Lidge as the closer. They think his mental make-up isn’t quite there for a starter, but he’s got the guts and (lack of?) brains to be a closer. 2008 draft pick Vance Worley (pictured) is another candidate to be converted and Baseball America says he could be the first of that draft class to the majors if he does make the move.
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Good summary. As you stated, the Phils bullpen was an asset last year that quite frequently masked starting pitching struggles. While this is a very solid bullpen, I think it is more likely to regress a bit–especially with its lack of a solid left specialist. Don’t get me wrong, I think the bullpen is well above average, but I don’t think it is feasible to repeate the performance of last year.
one addition to the 2009 and beyond… just got my Baseball America prospect handbook (they have the Phils as the 12th best system in the MLB) and they have high draft pick Jason Knapp as another potential closer candidate. They said he currently throws 96-97 and if he fills out his frame, he could throw 100mph.
How about Scott Eyre. He invested some money with the Stanford Investment Group. On Feb. 17th the SEC (not the Southeastern Conference) raided R. Allen Stanford’s offices and froze all the assets of the three companies he controls. He allegedly orchestrated an $8 billion investment fraud.
As a result of this, Eyre has had his bank accounts frozen. He is not alone either. Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady, and Carlos Pena have also been affected. Federal officials have told them that their money is safe, it is only being blocked temporarily while the investigation proceeds. However, Eyre cannot pay his bills without access to his money.
Well the Phils have stepped up for Eyre. They have advanced him an undisclosed amount of his 2009 salary to hold him over until his Stanford account becomes available to him. Eyre said that several teammates volunteered to help him out as well. Kudos to the Phils and to Eyre’s teammates for helping him out.