Other ReclinerGM 2009 MLB team previews here
This is part 1 of my 5 part Phillies preview (didn’t we just win the World Series? Is the honeymoon over already?). I’m going to spread it out while I do the other previews and then will finish with a Phillies v. Mets combined preview. Yes, I’m not including the Braves in there. Hopefully the fellow that said this last year will come and complain…
Do yourself a favor and stop writing about baseball until you do some research. the Braves will win the East by 2 games over the Mets, and the Phillies will hit the links in October.
Ah, that felt good.
Moving on to our title defense… In these previews, I’m going to go position by position and give my thoughts on where we all, where we can improve, what I expect for 2009 and what the future looks like at the position.
Catcher
WHERE WE ARE: This is arguably the most intriguing position on the team right now. Our 2009 opening day catcher will be the 29-year old Carlos Ruiz. But, for the large majority of the year, it looked like Ruiz was playing his way out of town, hitting .219 with just 18 extra-base hits, a comical .300 SLG% and 34 RBI for the season. Then, October came, and he turned into Johnny Bench. Ruiz hit .344 in the NLCS and WS without a strike out and had 4 RBI, including the game winning “hit” in Game 3 of the World Series. After that performance, and his solid defense all year, he’s earned another shot.
2009 IMPROVEMENTS: Uhh….slugging higher than your on-base percentage? I didn’t think it was possible, but Ruiz had a higher on-base % than slugging % last year, meaning not only did he never get on base, but when he did, it was only singles. Ruiz is going to have to bring his average up to the .265-.270 range, and consistently be there, to hold off the hard-charging Lou Marson (pictured).
WHAT I EXPECT IN 2009: I’m not really expecting much from Ruiz this season, to be honest. I think, by default, he will improve on his offensive (both meanings) numbers from last year, but he is not the future at the catching position and the Phillies know this. I think that Ruiz will struggle at some point early in the season and the team will bring up Lou Marson, who will slowly transition into the starting role and take over completely by the end of the year.
BEYOND 2009: This is the deepest position in the Phillies farm system, so it will be very interesting to see how this plays out. Right now, Lou Marson looks to be the starter for the next couple years. He will turn 23 this season, led all of AA in OBP (.433) and was a key component on the US Olympic team. However, like Ruiz, he is primarily a singles hitter, and might be best served hitting in the 2-hole or even lead-off to get on base for Utley and Howard (think Jason Kendall). Coming up behind him is Travis D’Arnaud, who is not the prospect Marson is right now, but many believe has much more upside that Marson. D’Arnaud is only 19, but has a lot more pop in his bat and is an elite defensive catcher. It’s possible he could push Marson as Lou enters his arbitration years. The wild card is Sebastian Valle, an 18-year old from Mexico who showed some promise in rookie league last year. Hopefully one of the three pans out and gives us an elite catcher for the next several years.
First Base
WHERE WE ARE: We are in the midst of a power hitting first basemen unlike any the Phillies have seen. Since entering the league, Ryan Howard leads all players in HR and RBI, and it’s not even close. He also leads in K’s, and it’s not even close. He can look like he’s never seen a breaking pitch for stretches, and he can single handedly carry the team for others. I’m not sure there has even been a feast-or-famine player to his extreme in the history of baseball.
2009 IMPROVEMENTS: 2005 Rookie of the Year, 2006 NL MVP, 2007 5th Place MVP, 2008 MVP runner-up. You see that in a player’s first 4 seasons in the Majors, and you would assume a fan would have to be a pretty bitter and pessimistic person to rattle off a list of improvements the player can make, but in Ryan Howard’s case, even the most optimistic fan can see it. Howard’s BA, OBP and SLG% have gone down in each of the last 2 seasons. Last year, his on-base percentage was downright mediocre, at .339, good for 95th in the majors. Howard’s needs to be more patient at the plate, put more balls in play and bring up his average. I don’t think the strikeouts will change, but he needs to make less outs. Also, everyone knows that Howard was one of the worst defensive 1B in the league last year, and for some reason can’t make the throw to 2nd. Jayson Stark has reported that Howard is working hard on his conditioning and defense, so hopefully we see some improvement with the glove as well.
WHAT I EXPECT IN 2009: I expect a pretty standard Ryan Howard year. 45 HR, 130 RBI, about the same BA, and a better on-base percentage. I don’t think he’s ever going to go back to his MVP form with his .425 OBP and .313 BA. If he says he’s working hard on his defense, then I believe him, and expect an improvement there as well.
BEYOND 2009: This is where is gets tricky, doesn’t it. We all know the financial situation with Howard so there is no use rehashing it. He is under our control for the next 3 years, and I would hope that we keep him for next 2-2 1/2 years and then trade him for a bevy of prospects before he reaches free agency. We need to pad the farm system so we can still compete after this 3-year window, and trading Howard at the right time is a big part of that. I would love to keep him, but it seems his contract demands are going to be too outrageous for that to happen and us still have money for other areas. It’s possible he could be traded as early as 2010 if he wins his arbitration case.
Second Base
WHERE WE ARE: We have not only the best second basemen in the game, but a player many well-respected baseball people have said they would take 1st in all of baseball if they were starting a franchise tomorrow. Utley is destined to be one of the most popular players in Phillies history.
2009 IMPROVEMENTS: Utley needs to stay healthy. He was banged up all last year, including a hip problem that definitely took something out of his swing for much of the year. While Utley usually looks like the best player on the team, he has yet to put together a full season of dominance. He is capable of a .330, 35 HR, 120 RBI year, but we haven’t seen that from him yet.
WHAT I EXPECT IN 2009: I think that Utley will be ready for Opening Day, but I also think without spring training and any offseason training, he will struggle to get his footing early in the season. However, once he does, he’ll probably carry the team for a period of time before letting Howard take over in September. Gold Glove, All-Star, Silver Slugger, just another year.
BEYOND 2009: Chase Utley will make $11 million this year, and then in 2010, his salary will jump to $15 million, where it will stay until his contract is up in 2013, when he is 34. When we had 2B Adrian Cardenas in our system, I thought we might move Utley over to 1st base when Howard went on his way, but his improved defense, and Cardenas’ trade to the A’s, make that unlikely. Hopefully around 2012 we give him a nice extension and he sticks around for his whole career.
Third Base
WHERE WE ARE: We are where we’ve been since Scott Rolen left…nowhere. It’s pretty clear we should have kept Placido Polanco there, but that ship has long sailed. Pedro Feliz was absolutely an upgrade, especially defensively, over Double-Play David Bell and Wes Helms, but he is clearly not a long-term option.
2009 IMPROVEMENTS: It would be nice to see Feliz raise his batting average a little bit, but he’s been around .250 his whole career and I doubt we are going to see a change this late in the game. Feliz is what he is, and our lack of a big-time 3B is made up for at 2B and SS, so all I can really ask is for him to play some solid defense again.
WHAT I EXPECT IN 2009: I expect Jason Donald (pictured) to see some time either at 3B or 2B to start the season and play well. When Feliz returns, I think the fans will want Donald at 3B and if he slumps, you could see him splitting time during the second half. I also think we will continue to see Greg Dobbs here against tough righties, so it will be 3B by committee again.
BEYOND 2009: There is still no big time 3B prospect in our system and with Feliz’ contract up after this season (unless we pick up his 2010 option, which is possible) 3B may be a question mark going into 2010. The 2010 FA class includes Chipper Jones, Adrian Beltre, Hank Blalock and Chone Figgins. Figgins in the only one I would be interested in, but I doubt the Phillies will be spending more money on their infield. Jason Donald might be a solution here. He is a SS prospect, but they have been playing him at third. He’s not an elite prospect for the position, but could be a very solid player, and put up Aaron Rowand-type numbers. I would like to see them give him a shot there and only trade him if they are getting a big return. I really like the prospect of having Donald and Marson replacing Ruiz and Feliz in our 2010 line-up.
Short Stop
WHERE WE ARE: Like 1B and 2B, we currently have the best SS in Phillies history going out there every day. With Pat Burrell gone, Rollins is the longest tenured Phillie, making his debut in September of 2000, when Cole Hamels had just gotten his drivers’ license. Since he came up so early (age 21), people forget that he is only 1 month older than Chase Utley. Rollins is going to start moving up the top-10 in a lot of Phillies all-time categories this year. He is already top-10 in extra base hits (8th), doubles (7th), runs (10th), triples (5th) and stolen bases (4th) and will move into the top-10 in hits, total bases, and maybe home runs. It will be interesting to see where he finishes his career.
2009 IMPROVEMENTS: Jimmy still doesn’t have the OBP you want from your leadoff man and hits too many balls in the air. He has gotten ever so slightly better at both of these since he’s gotten into the league, and I wouldn’t expect any sort of big jump anytime soon.
WHAT I EXPECT IN 2009: As I predicted in my 2008 preview, Rollins had a setback year after his fantastic MVP season in 2007. This was easy to see coming, as there was no way he could live up to those expectations. This year, I think that he will fall somewhere in between. I’m hoping for 20 HR, 75 RBI, .280 BA, 40 2B and another gold glove.
BEYOND 2009: Jimmy is signed through the 2011 season, when he will be 32 years old. Like, Utley, it’s hard to imagine the Phillies letting him go, but at that age, he might be able to demand an over-the-top contract on the open market. Hopefully we keep him around because right now, with the exception of Donald (who would be 26 at that point), we don’t have a lot of SS prospects in our system.
Overview
There’s very little to critique in the Phillies infield, easily the best in the team’s history, and the best in the Majors. However, they still need to perform to at least their normal levels and work on improving their game for us to go out and win our third straight division title. Howard, in particular, needs to show improvement in plate discipline and BA, or else he’s going to get some heat for the way he’s handling his contract situation. It’s exciting to have some young prospects in Marson and Donald who may be able to come in and improve the team at other positions as well. Enjoy while we have it, we may not see an infield like this again.
Loading ...
{ 2 trackbacks }
{ 9 comments… read them below or add one }
I know that I’ve mentioned this article a couple times over the last week, but that is because there is a lot of good stuff in it. I’ll pull out a few relevant bits.
I definitely agree that Howard need to get on base more and make less outs. How about this for some perspective on that:
“Howard struck out 199 times, more than every player in the league outside of Mark Reynolds. He went down on strikes in 32.6 percent of his plate appearances. In addition, the left-handed swinger posted the worst BB rate, 11.7%, of his Major League career. The regression on a plate discipline front coincided with his .339 on-base percentage, down from .392 in ’07 and .425 in ’06. Howard was responsible for making 475 total outs overall. To put that in comparison, Albert Pujols made only 364 outs while putting up roughly the same power totals.”
Howard is an offensive force but, if not for the fact that chicks dig the long ball, he should not have even entered the 2008 MVP conversation. There is no way he could be #1 in the NL when he is #3 on his own team.
About Howard’s offensive production:
“While it is hard to argue with 146 RBIs, the total needs to be looked at in the proper context. Howard, essentially, benefited from having excellent teammates setting the table ahead of him. The league-best RBI total was the function of opportunity, as he had high-OBP stud Chase Utley batting ahead of him. Utley, the true most valuable Phillie, would help any player batting behind him increase their RBI total, as he posted a .380 on-base percentage and scored 113 runs. Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino were not exactly slouches, either. The Phillies received OBP totals of .356, .347, and .359, respectively from the 1-2-3 spots in the batting order. Plus, Rollins was one of the most efficient base stealers in the game, swiping 47 bags in 50 chances, consistently putting himself in scoring position for the boppers in the middle of the Phillies’ batting order. Not surprisingly, Howard received a great number of at-bats, 298, with men on base, including 175 with runners in scoring position.”
This, among other things, is why I have recently stated that, over all, Howard may not be giving us as much as we think he is (over, above, and beyond what another player would in his same position, both on the field and in the batting order). I’m not dismissing what we are getting from Howard. I’m merely saying that he is most likely not worth all the extra money we will need to spend to get it.
About Howard’s value:
“VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) is a stat that many traditionalists love to hate. While the statistic has its flaws and Baseball Prospectus has never shared its formula, it does a fine way of objectively quantifying real offensive value. VORP does not account for defensive contributions, though this helps Howard and his cause. With that said, it is damning to his case that he finished 47th —yes, 47th!—in the category in ’08; his 36.4 was certainly solid, but it was only good for third on the Phillies, as Utley and Rollins, who each received bumps for their position, finished with better totals. Pujols, in comparison, led the league with an incredible 98.6 VORP; the MVP comparison, objectively and Philly-homerism aside, was an absolute joke. He was not even the most valuable player on his own team, let alone a candidate for most valuable in the entire league.”
Also:
“Equally as telling, Howard finished fifth on the Philadelphia roster in FanGraphs’ new metric, value wins. He finished with 3.1 value wins, behind Utley, Rollins, Jayson Werth and Victorino. FanGraphs pegged him, therefore, at a player who should have hypothetically earned $14.1 million (assuming he was a free agent) for his on-field performance.”
Lastly:
“Defense counts, too. Howard put up a .0.8 UZR, according to his value section at FanGraphs; to his credit, this is up from -1.2 in ’07. Several other advanced metrics were not kind to him, either, and most scouts generally criticize his defense as well. In addition, he plays first base. In all honesty, finding a power-hitting first baseman is not all that difficult – especially when compared to, say, a plus-offensive middle infielder or catcher. Adjusting for position deflates his real overall value as well.”
I know this seems like an awful lot of Howard bashing. That is not my intention. I am really just trying to get to the bottom of what Howard really gives us, his true value to the team. I think we need to determine that before we can even begin to entertain any ideas of a long term contract with him (if indeed we have any chance at all of coming to terms with him).
Whatever, the fact remains, as Pete said, that this is beyond question the best infield in team history. We have it for a max of 3 more years, so we had better enjoy it (and win a lot) while we can.
bski…I think my issues with Howard stem from pure frustration at times, when I know the potential for greatness is there, just not always utilized. When he gets a hold of one and just plain knocks the stitches off it, its one of the best feelings to have as a Phils fan. Its the 1-2 times per game that he looks silly swinigng at a pitch that the catcher can barely get to its so far off the plate that frustrates everyone. And that leads right up to the argument of what his value is at this point in time. BTW just got “Baseball Dynasties” delivered today per your recommendation. Can’t wait to check it out.
Pete…Great analysis here. Not much of a down side here except 3B. Although Feliz lacks a bit at the plate, his glove is stellar and I’ll take him for just that. Excited to see Donald out there hopefully at 3rd to see what that kid can do. If he can live up to his potential and produce, this infield could be even better for the next 3 years.
J DUBBZ….Uh oh, I am now officially on the hook with my recommendation of Baseball Dynasties!!! I hope you enjoy it. I really learned a lot from it and gained a much greater appreciation of many players from days gone by. I’m not only talking about guys whose names you’ve heard but whose games you don’t know that much about either. I learned a lot about the “greats of the game” too.
The one thing I recall liking a lot is all the little vignettes in the margins. There is one on almost every page. Lots of great stuff about records that almost were, odd coincidences, travel disruptions, weather anomalies, and other random, really interesting tidbits that I thought added a lot to the book. Let me know how you liked it.
Jason Donald will never put up Aaron Rowand numbers, sorry. Chances are he’ll be more of a Nick Punto type of player, which is to say that he will be a serviceable infielder, but don’t expect much more.
TRT-
Okay Pete… that makes sense.
The infield is pretty set. Of all the areas on our ballclub it’s the one where we know most what we’re going to get. Heck, we have more MVP candidates than positional battles! At this point Rollins, Utley and Howard are what they are. We don’t know whether they’ll have an above average or below average season but at least we know either will be productive.
As for Ruiz and Feliz, I think Cholly will play whoever is playing the best, like he did with Werth. If Donald, Dobbs, Coste, Marson or anyone else earns playing time then he’ll get it. It seems like Donald will get a good chance during spring training and maybe the early season with Utley and Feliz recovering. He could unseat Feliz if he plays out of his mind but I think he’ll be in the minors if everyone is healthy. The Phils don’t usually let prospects sit on the bench in the majors when they can play in the minors. That’s my take on Donald, however I think Marson will have a big impact this year. I think he’ll make the team (maybe out of spring training) and gradually earn playing time like Pete said. I think he has a chance to be our starting catcher by seasons end.
Also the role Dobbs has had the last couple years is perfect for him. Credit to Cholly for using him just enough to get a lot of production but not too much. He isn’t the same hitter when he’s starting every night for whatever reason. Maybe he gets worn down or maybe pitchers see too much of him and figure him out. He’s been arguably the best hitter in his role the last 2 years. It was a good job by management to get Feliz and Ibanez (albeit I would have prefered a different starter) to keep Dobbs in his current role
That picture of Marson looks like it was taken in 1957.
The day of reckoning fast approaches. Here’s another Ryan Howard arbitration article. Sounds like his hearing will be next week.