The ReclinerGM’s 2009 MLB Preview: Philadelphia Phillies Outfield

 Other Phillies and 2009 MLB team previews here

On to part 4 of my 5 part Phillies preview, this time focusing on the outfield. The Phils outfield has been full of changing parts the last couple years. The 2 standbys for the past decade, Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu, have moved on, and only Shane Victorino remains from last years opening day outfield. 

Let’s take a look at the 2009 trio. 

Left Field

WHERE WE ARE: A position that has been Pat Burrell’s since 2000 now has a new tenant, 36-year old Raul Ibanez. Ibanez signed with the Phillies just before the free agent market “crashed” and was able to get a 3-year, $30 million deal in an off-season where Bobby Abreu could only land 1 year, $6 million. Ibanez was a major run producer for a bad Seattle team the last 3 years, knocking in 123, 105 and 110 runs in ‘06, ‘07 and ‘08 respectively. Like Burrell, he is a liability on defense, and not great on the bathpaths, though he will be a slight upgrade in both areas. He also strikes out less and has put up better numbers with RISP the last 3 seasons. 

2009 IMPROVEMENTS: I haven’t seen Ibanez play enough to say much here, but I do know that a big part of whether or not he is considered a good signing will be if he can hit left handed pitching. Phillies management has been constantly bringing up his OPS against lefties in 2008 (.866) in defense of adding to an already lefty-heavy line-up. However, he wasn’t nearly as good as that in 2007 (.650) or 2006 (.653) and it’s very possible 2008 was an exception, not the rule. The good news is, after Johan Santana, there are very few tough lefties in the NL (aside from Hamels, of course). But, unless he keeps up his 2008 production of lefties, this is going to come up a lot during the season, whether it’s a big game against the Mets, or when the other team brings in a lefty reliever late. 

WHAT I EXPECT IN 2009: I’m usually a positive person when it comes to the Phillies, but I can’t justify paying Ibanez what we did over the other contracts that were given out this year. I also can’t bring myself to believe that Ibanez will put up great numbers against lefties again. However, his addition will make our line-up absolutely lethal against right handers, who we face 70-80% of the time. In terms of actual production, you can pretty much guarantee his RBI’s will drop a lot because he has Howard in front of him hitting people in. My guess is a solid season of .280, 20 HR and 80 RBI, but a lot of questions about the signing moving forward. 

BEYOND 2009: If all goes to plan, Michael Taylor will be ready to take over an outfield spot on opening day 2011. At 6′6”, 250 lbs, Taylor is a huge kid, and he enjoyed a huge breakout season in 2008. He destroyed pitching at both levels of single-A and hit for both average (.345) and power (19 HR, 39 2B). His numbers are eerily similar to Ryan Howard’s at the same age and level as I discussed here. He will likely start the year in double-A, and is a player to watch, and he probably has the biggest upside of any bat in the organization. He is part of a group of prospects that are HUGELY important to the Phillies being competitive after our “3-year window” from 2009-2011 with our current guys. 

Right Field

WHERE WE ARE: Jayson Werth’s first shot at an opening day starting spot after he, like Shane Victorino in 2006, forced his way into the line-up with stellar play in a platoon role, hitting 24 HRs in only 418 ABs. However, it isn’t getting off to a great start, as Werth has been injured all of Spring Training and has only logged a couple ABs. For someone with a long and storied injury history and for a team light on right-handed run producers, this has been by far the biggest concern of the spring for me. 

2009 IMPROVEMENTS: Werth strikes out too much, but other than that, he’s the type of player that does all the little things well. He’s an excellent baserunner and fielder, though he did on several occasions last season jump or dive for balls that he really didn’t have much chance at (or, the exact opposite of Bobby Abreu). Werth just needs to stay healthy for an entire 162 game campaign in which he is starting wire-to-wire. He’s never done that before, so now would certainly be a good time. 

WHAT I EXPECT IN 2009: Judging from his flaky spring, I think there is a chance that expecting Werth to provide the right handed power in this line-up might backfire. All signs pointed to a breakout 30HR, 80 RBI type season for Werth this year, but the fact that his injury issues have flared up this spring is very disconcerting. I think that Werth gets about the same number of ABs he did last year (400) and slightly less production (18 HR, 50 RBI) due to injuries and that we see a lot more of Geoff Jenkins (having a decent spring) and Eric Bruntlett than we planned. 

BEYOND 2009: Michael Taylor might be the best pure bat in our system, but the best offensive, 5-tool talent is unquestionably Dominic Brown. Brown is a good enough athlete that he was going to play WR for Miami or Florida State after H.S. However, the Phillies took a flyer on him in the late rounds, gave him some money, and he signed. In single-A last year, the 20-year old showed a good bat (.291 BA), eye (64 BB in 500 PA), speed (22 2B), some developing pop (9 HR) and a Shane Victorino-type arm. Baseball America touted him as our best prospect and a top-30 prospect in all of baseball. He is an unfinished product, but scouts think he can be an all-star outfielder and is often compared in game (not attitude) to Darryl Strawberry.  

Center Field 

WHERE WE ARE: Shane Victorino is the only holdover from last years’ opening day outfield, and has turned into a far better player than any scout would have imagined. He has continued to improve as a hitter, was great the second half of the season (.311 BA, .852 OPS) and proved to be the breakout offensive star of the playoffs with his grand slam off CC Sabathia in the NLDS and game-tying HR off Cory Wade in the NLCS. He is also an elite defender (winning his first gold glove in 2008) and baserunner and plays with a passion Phillies fans love. His swing into semi-stardom continued when he was added to Team USA’s roster for the World Baseball Classic. He’s played well too, going 3 for 7 and supplanting Curtis Granderson as the starting CF. 

2009 IMPROVEMENTS: There are still a couple things that Victorino can do to improve his game. The first is trying to take some more walks. Jimmy Rollins gets criticized for not taking enough walks, but Victorino walks even less. Rollins had 58 walks in 625 PA in 2008, while Victorino only had 45 walks in 627 PA. Victorino is lethal on the basepaths, the more we can get him on, the better. Second, while I don’t expect Victorino to hit a lot of HRs, he can get more extra-base hits. He ranked 25th among NL outfielders in SLG%, even though it was his 3rd straight season it went up. He can definitely hit more than 30 doubles year. 

WHAT I EXPECT IN 2009: I wasn’t very positive on my expectations for the other 2 outfielders, but I’m definitely bullish about Victorino. He’s improved each of the last 2 seasons, and at 28, I think he’s primed for a career year. I’m not sure he is capable of an all-star caliber year, but I’m thinking that .300 BA, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 35 2B, 10 3B and 40 SB (to go along with another gold glove) isn’t an unrealistic expectation. 

BEYOND 2009: Though he’ll probably play RF and push Dominic Brown to CF, we’ll talk about the 3rd part of the Phillies future outfield here. Zach Collier was one of the earlier picks the Phillies made in the draft last season and was one of the best young bats in the country. He could have gone in the top half of the 1st round, but he fell down to the Phillies in the supplemental round. He’s only 18, so we won’t see him for quite some time, but he’s been compared to a Garrett Anderson-type hitter and is one of the many high ceiling prospects in the Phils system. 

Overview

I think that most of the Phillies offensive questions arise in the outfield with how much we can expect from Werth and Ibanez. If they play well, they will provide us with tremendous depth 1 through 6. I think Werth is one of the most important players on the team this year because we need him to bat 5th and separate the lefties. 

With Victorino and Werth, you could argue that the Phils have the best defensive CF/RF tandem in baseball. Ibanez is not really an upgrade from Burrell defensively, as most metrics had them as the 2 worst defensive OFs in all of baseball last year. The fact that the Phillies think otherwise is a little alarming, actually. 

The Phils outfield is different than most because our offensive stars reside in the infield. Hopefully the outfielders can play to their potential and help our line-up be more consistent that it was in 2008.

March 17, 2009