The ReclinerGM’s 2009 MLB Preview: Phillies Starting Rotation

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Going into last season, I thought that the Phillies’ biggest weakness was the starting rotation. Mid-way through the season, they had done little to prove me wrong. Hamels was great, and Moyer was solid, but Kyle Kendrick was on the verge of complete, and predictable, breakdown and both Myers and Eaton has ERA’s north of 5.50.

But the rotation came together, after Myers came back from the Minors, and Pat Gillick traded for Joe Blanton, it turned out that pitching, not hitting, would lead us to our first title since 1980. After the all-star break, Hamels had a 2.98 ERA, Myers 3.06, Moyer 3.39 and Blanton 4.20. In the playoffs, Phillies starters went 8-3 with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Can they repeat the feat in 2009? Here’s what I expect.

Like the infield preview, I’ll be looking at where we are now, what improvements can be made, and what I expect in 2009. Instead of doing a 2009 and beyond for each, I’ll do one at the end.

#1 Starter: Cole Hamels

WHERE WE ARE: Hamels should get his first opening day start this season after being snubbed the last 2 years. If winning the NLCS and WS MVP won’t do it, I’m not sure what will. Hamels has improved his ERA and WHIP in each of his 3 seasons, and at just 25, he’s still got room to improve. Last year, he solidified himself as both a true ace and a big game pitcher with a 3.09 ERA in 227 IP. Since 1972, only Carlton, Denny and Schilling have had that low an ERA in that many IP. Hamels was the story of the playoffs, going 4-0 with 1.80 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP.

2009 IMPROVEMENTS: The one knock on Hamels is that he gives up too many HRs. He gave up 28 last year, 13th most in the majors. This had little to do with Citizens Bank Park, as he gave up only 2 more HR at home, with 1 more start there. If Hamels can get a little better at keeping his fastball out over the plate, he’ll be able to knock that ERA down into the 2.50 range and be a serious Cy Young contender.

WHAT I EXPECT IN 2009: Unfortunately, I expect an injury. Hamels threw more pitches and pitched more innings than any other pitcher in baseball last year. There is a direct correlation between increased pitches and innings and injuries. Many people use 3,400 pitches as a benchmark for a red flag. Last year, Hamels threw over 3,900. Both Myers and Blanton threw over 3,400 as well. I don’t think it will be huge injury, but I would plan on Hamels throwing about 150-170 IP, with a 3.20 ERA. If he stays healthy, it gives me hope that he could be a Tom Glavine / Greg Maddux-type pitcher whose motion allows them to stay healthy year in, year out.

#2 Starter: Brett Myers

WHERE WE ARE: Your guess is as good as mine. Brett Myers went from closer, to #1 starter, to “hey, I forgot how to be a starter,” to the minors, to an out machine at the end of the season, to a world champion. This is his last season under contract with the Phillies, and anywhere from a 3.00-6.00 ERA wouldn’t surprise me. Myers was talked about at length on this blog as someone, no matter how good he looked over how long a time, that we really never had any trust in. Hopefully he shows up ready for the season.

2009 IMPROVEMENTS: Consistency is the most obvious one. Myers can get in his own head and lose focus for several starts at a time. I think that the trip to minors woke him up last year. Everyone matures at a different speed and hopefully the 28-year-old Myers makes that transformation down the stretch. In terms of his actual pitching, he also needs to work on fastball location. He gave up more HR’s than Hamels (but very few after coming back) and gave up more than a hit per inning during the season. His whole game relies on fastball movement and location.

WHAT I EXPECT IN 2009: I have pretty set expectations for all the other pitchers here, but Myers I still don’t trust. At times he looks like the best pitcher on the team, and at others, he looks like the worst pitcher in the whole league. Since it is a contract year for him, and at 28, he could be in line for the biggest pay day of his entire career, I think that he will continue the good pitching he showed down the stretch and potentially put together his first start-to-finish solid year. I’m thinking 200 IP, 3.80 ERA.

#3 Starter: Joe Blanton

WHERE WE ARE: Blanton came over in a mid-season trade that got a lukewarm reception from the fans. Many were hoping for a blockbuster move along the lines of CC Sabathia and Manny Ramirez, but as it turns out, the Phils ended up beating both those players on their way to Tampa Bay. Blanton was solid for the Phillies after his acquisition, going 4-0 with a 4.20 ERA in 70.7 IP. He was 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in the playoffs. He also gained some local fame by blasting a HR off Andy Sonnanstine in Game 4 of the World Series.

2009 IMPROVEMENTS: Blanton needs to give up less hits. His goal should be to give up less than a hit per inning. He was at his best in the playoffs when he had his slider working, so he has to do whatever he can to make sure that that pitch is where it needs to be before every start.

WHAT I EXPECT IN 2009: I think that what we saw at the end of the regular season is what we will see this year. Blanton is usually solid and can give you a great start every once in a while when everything is clicking. He reminds me a lot of the good version of Jon Lieber. I’m expecting his ERA will be right around where it was down the stretch for the Phils, 4.20.

#4 Starter: Jamie Moyer

WHERE WE ARE: We are in unchartered territory here with Moyer, giving a 2-year deal to a 46-year-old. Moyer appeared done after the 2007 season in which he posted a 5.01 ERA, but he bounced back in a big way last year, leading the team in wins (16) and posting his lowest ERA (3.71) since 2003. Those are certainly fantastic numbers to have in your #4 starter, but how much can you expect from someone who could legitimately be Cole Hamels’ father?

2009 IMPROVEMENTS: I think that Moyer had as good a year as he possibly could last season, and to point out areas of improvement would be nit-picking. He’s not going to develop any pitches or gain any velocity on his fastball. Moyer needs to keep doing whatever he did to drop his ERA 1.30 last season. Hitting his corners, mixing up pitches and keeping the hitters frustrated and guessing.

WHAT I EXPECT IN 2009: Honestly, I’m not very optimistic about Moyer this year. There was virtually no difference in the pitcher that had a 5.01 ERA in 2007 and the one that had a 3.71 ERA in 2008. Same pitches, same velocity, just an inch here, and defensive play there and some luck. I think that Moyer will still go out there every day and give us a chance to win, but I think his end-of-season ERA is going to be in 4.60 range, and there might be some serious doubt about giving him a two-year deal. Hopefully he proves me wrong; he’s been proving everyone wrong for about 8 years now.

#5 Starter: J.A. Happ

WHERE WE ARE: The fight for the 5th starter spot will probably be the biggest Phillies story of Spring Training. Happ, Chan Ho Park, Kyle Kendrick and Carlos Carrasco will fight it out, but I think that Happ will win out, and furthermore, I don’t even think there should be a competition. Happ finished 1 strikeout away from the International League lead with 152, despite spending much of the last half of the year in Philly. In his 4 starts for the Phillies, he was 1-0 with a 2.28 ERA. He showed a good fastball, about 91-92 MPH, and his off-speed pitches can get major league hitters out. He’s 26, has far greater potential than Kendrick, and we need to find out what we have with him.

2009 IMPROVEMENTS: It’s kind of hard to write anything here since we haven’t seen Happ pitch that much. In his 4 starts, he didn’t give up a lot of runs, but he also didn’t manage his pitch count terribly well and wasn’t able to pitch late into games. Too early to make any sweeping judgments on him though.

WHAT I EXPECT IN 2009: I’m really high on Happ, actually. His peripheral stats at AAA were very impressive, allowing only 116 hits and striking out 151 in 135 innings. I think he will win the job, and then go through a typical rookie season, with some ups and downs. Hopefully the Phillies stick with him and see what he’s made of. I’m thinking about 150 IP, 4.50 ERA, but he shows the potential to improve upon that in the future.

Beyond 2009

CONTRACT STATUS:

• Cole Hamels is signed for 2009, 2010 and 2011
• Brett Myers is in a contract year and will be a FA after this season
• Joe Blanton has 1 more year of arbitration, and will be a FA after the 2010 season
• Jamie Moyer is signed for 2009 and 2010
• J.A. Happ is under the Phillies’ control until after the 2014 season

MINOR LEAGUERS

• Carlos Carrasco is the biggest name in the Phillies farm system as has been for a couple years. However, he’s only 21 and is probably not ready for the big show just yet. He was so-so in double-A but was fantastic once promoted to AAA, where he had a 1.72 ERA and 46K in 36.2 IP. I think he needs to start the year in the minors and will only come up if several pitchers get hurt or if he pitches so well we can’t keep him down. In 2010, I expect him to be in the rotation and hopefully camp right behind Cole Hamels for a couple years.

• The other major pitching prospect in the system, Kyle Drabek, is still years away but might have a bigger upside than Carrasco. Drabek has an elite arm, with a 94-95 mph fastball and the best curveball in the system. But he has yet to have a full year in the minors, and this year will be huge in terms of finding out what his long term potential is.

• There are several other minor league pitchers to keep an eye on but none that look to make an immediate impact. Jason Knapp might have the best arm in the system but is only 18. Aussie Drew Naylor impressed a lot of people by leading the Phillies entire system in strikeouts with 156. Joe Savery was the team’s 2007 first round pick, but was disappointing in his first full year in the minors. Edgar Garcia, Antonio Bastardo, Julian Sampson, Mike Stutes and Vance Worley are all promising pitchers to keep an eye on 2009.

Overview

I’m never really comfortable with our starting pitching. Hitters are pretty consistent in their production year by year, but pitchers are unpredictable and much more susceptible to injury. However, I do like our rotation more than I did to start last year. We have a deep rotation, and if someone falters or gets injured, Chan Ho Park and Kyle Kendrick can give us some spot starts or we can graduate Carlos Carrasco early. Myers, Blanton and Moyer are going to be extremely important to this team, and if all three perform how they did down the stretch, we could absolutely flirt with 100 wins. As for the future, we need a couple of those pitchers in the third bullet to step it up this year, and I’ll be watching them very closely.

Tagged as: 2009 MLB Preview

February 9, 2009