The ReclinerGM’s 2009 MLB Preview: Seattle Mariners

explanation of rankings of other team previews here

2008 Record: 61-101
Offseason Additions: Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez, Aaron Heilman
Offseason Subtractions: Raul Ibanez, J.J. Putz, Sean Green, Jeremy Reed
Ranks (MLB):
Line-Up – 26th
Rotation – 12th
Bullpen – 30th
Defense – 3rd tier (out of 5)
Baserunning – 3rd tier (out of 5)

KEY PLAYER: ERIC BEDARD

The acquisition of Bedard last year (in a trade that destroyed Seattle’s farm system) had me convinced that a 1-2 punch of Felix Hernandez and Bedard could pull this team past the Angels and into a division title. Needless to say, it was one of my worst predictions, and I probably shouldn’t be reminding anyone I made it. However, I still believe that the Hernandez/Bedard combo has a chance to be elite, especially with Eric playing for a contract this year. In 2007, Bedard was arguably the toughest pitcher to hit in the American League. He was 1st in H/9, 1st in K/9, 2nd in WHIP and 4th in ERA. Seattle needs him to get back to that point if they want to overcome their porous line-up and keep their fans’ attention past May.

PLAYER TO WATCH: JOSE LOPEZ

Pretend you didn’t see who this section is about…OK? Now, answer this question…who led the AL in RBI by a 2B last year? Was it MVP Dustin Pedroia? Hit machine Ian Kinsler? Super-rookie Alexi Ramirez? Young bomber Robby Cano? Nope, it was 24-year old Jose Lopez, who knocked in 89 RBI last year for the Mariners. Lopez probably puts the ball in play more than any other player in the league. Last season, in 687 PAs, he only walked 27 times and only struck out 67 times. That means that 86% of his AB end with a ball being put in play. By comparison, J-Roll (who is most like this for the Phils) puts the ball into play 82% of the time, and Ryan Howard did it 60% of the time. If Lopez can even learn to improve his OBP, he could be an elite 2B in this league.

PHILLY ANGLE

Life after Gillick, Part 1

None of the 3 teams that Gillick GM’ed for before the Phillies have made the playoffs since he left. The Mariners are the most recent example. Gillick was the GM for Seattle from 2000-2003. In 2000 and 2001 they made the playoffs but lost in the ALCS both times. The 2001 team set the record for the most wins in a season (116). In both 2002 and 2003, the Mariners had 93 wins, but did not make the playoffs. Despite his success, Gillick only made a few major moves in Seattle. He signed Ichiro and dealt Ken Griffey Jr. away, but not much else earth-shattering. Like his time with the Phillies, he made several small moves to improve the team. Also, several current MLB players, including Mariners Felix Hernandez, Jose Lopez and Ryan Rowand-Smith and non-Mariners, Asdrubel Cabrera, Shin Soo-Choo and Greg Dobbs were signed as amateur FA’s during this time. Gillick left the Mariners under criticism about his inability to make a deadline move to put the team over the top (don’t all fans complain about this?) and because he didn’t feel that the M’s ownership was as dedicated to winning as they should be. In the 5 years since Gillick left, the Mariners have averaged just 72 wins. Some of this can be attributed to Gillick leaving, but more of it can be attributed to the horrendous Bill Bavarsi, who made it very difficult for me to pick the worst contract on this team, has been.

QUICK HITS

Worst Contract: Carlos Silva (4 yrs, $48 million, ends in 2011)
Best Pitch: Felix Hernandez’ Slider
Best Player in a Contract Year: Eric Bedard, SP
Top Prospect: Greg Halman, OF
Best Individual Season: Ken Griffey Jr, 1997 (.304 BA, 56 HR, 147 RBI, .646 SLG%, Gold Glove, MVP)
Worst Uniforms: 1981
Where’d They Come From?
- Free Agent, 6
– Amateur FA, 4 (most in MLB)
- Trade, 4
- Draft, 1 (least in MLB)

2009 OUTLOOK

3rd AL West, 12th AL, 25th MLB

The Mariners staff has the potential to be decent, but their line-up won’t take them very far. Add to this that they have Aaron Heilman closing games now, and there might be a lot of heartbreakers for M’s fans. With Raul Ibanez gone, their top returning RBI guys are Lopez, Adrian Beltre (77) and Yuniesky Betancourt (55), who aren’t exactly going to strike fear into opposing pitchers. There are 2 reasons to watch the Mariners this year though. The first is Felix Hernandez, who despite entering his 5th season with the Mariners, is only 22 and might have the best stuff in baseball. And the second is Ichiro, who has 1,805 hits, 885 runs, a .331 BA and several frozen rope throws to 3rd in his 8 years in America. At 35, we might not get too many more seasons of him and may never see a player like him again, so soak him in while you can.