I found a very good analysis of Howard’s arbitration case (both for and against) on dugoutcentral.com. It really ends up being a referendum on Howard himself, making you wonder whether he really gives us what we think he does, if we are placing too high a value on what he really gives us, and if we should even be thinking about trying to keep him.
It’s definitely worth a read, but I’ll post the conclusion for those who don’t want to bother with the whole article.
Conclusion:
Howard is a darn good hitter, and there is no denying his outstanding raw power. He has been tremendously overrated, however. His agents are asking for Pujols/Alex Rodriguez compensation for their client, which is absurd. He could probably get a similar figure in free agency, but he is still under team control. During escalating arbitration years, a player will receive a greater percentage of their actual market value, but the big first baseman is pushing the envelope too far. Even if Howard does live up to projections (and he should improve in 2009, falling in line with his ’07 and ’08 levels), he would not merit enough to make close to his real value at this stage of his career.
The Phillies are walking a fine line here. Obviously, they do not want to insult a player like Howard, who is arguably the face of the franchise. They should not back down, though, as their initial offer was more than reasonable. It is unlikely that the two sides will settle on a middle point near $16M, but if the Phils lose, this process could get out of hand in the future, setting a bad precedent. The year-to-year game will continue to free agency, but it might be in the Phillies’ best interest to deal when his perceived trade value is at its peak, assuming there will be enough interested suitors that can afford his salary. Odds are, he is long gone once he becomes a free agent in 2011, anyway. In all honesty, though, that might not be such a bad thing.
It is fun to watch Howard hit all of those long moon shots into the night, but he is already 28. By the time free agency does come around, he will be looking for big-time dollars that he will probably not end up earning, with old-player skills and power that could decline quickly as he gets up there in age. In arbitration, he certainly has a chance to win next month, given the common arbitrators’ love of home runs and other traditional counting stats. There are clearly some major flaws in his overall skill set, though, that need to be addressed. So, no, he does not deserve that much at this stage of his career. A settlement between $15-16-million would be ideal.