explanation of rankings and other team previews here
2008 Record: 97-65
Offseason Additions: Pat Burrell, Matt Joyce
Offseason Subtractions: Edwin Jackson
Ranks (MLB):
Line-Up – 2nd
Rotation – 2nd
Bullpen – 11th
Defense – 1st tier (out of 5)
Baserunning – 5th tier (out of 5)
KEY PLAYER: EVAN LONGORIA
The big question for the Rays this year is whether or not Evan Longoria can continue to play at the high level he did in 2008. From the moment Longoria took his first AB, he was a top-5 offensive and defensive 3B in the league. Had he not been injured, he would have gotten serious MVP consideration. But, as we all know, sophomore slumps are common as the pitchers adjust the holes in the hitters swings. I think that a lot of people are expecting Longoria to be an MVP candidate every year, starting with this one. At 23, that’s a whole lot to ask. He certainly has the talent, but whether or not he’s solid or indeed an MVP candidate will play a big role in the Rays season.
PLAYER TO WATCH: DAVID PRICE
Phillies fans got pretty sick of hearing about how great David Price was. With the media trying to find ways to make the series more entertaining to the average fan, they latched on to the top pitching prospect in baseball, and spoke him as though he was already in the HOF. Truth be told, Rays fans do have a lot to be excited about with Price, who has Randy Johnson-type stuff. They are being very careful with him though, and seem hesitant to throw him directly into the rotation as they don’t want to put too much stress on his arm. However, he’s too good to keep away for long and could have a 2006-Francisco Liriano type season. If he can keep control of his pitches and throw strikes with his stuff, the already great Rays rotation would be terrifying for the rest of the AL East.
PHILLY ANGLE
How will Pat play?
It’s already strange seeing Pat Burrell wearing a different uniform. The player that was once offered to the Orioles for Rodrigo Lopez (who we have since signed) and was booed unmercifully from 2003-06 had become a fan favorite over the last 2 seasons as his plate approach improved and other players moved him out of the spotlight. He finished his Phillies career 3rd all-time in HR (251), 5th in RBI (827), 4th in Walks (785) and 2nd in K’s (1,273). Given all the criticism he received, that’s pretty good. Now, on a new team and playing DH for the first time in his career, it will be interesting to see what kind of numbers he puts up. I imagine the Rays will hit him 5th or 6th in the line-up and he will have a lot of opportunity for RBI without the behemoth that is Ryan Howard swallowing them all up. Playing in a bigger park, I think his HR’s will drop, and I’m expecting a .260, 25 HR, 80 RBI season out of him. It will be fun to see him playing in big games at Fenway and Yankees Stadium.
QUICK HITS
Worst Contract: Troy Percival (2 yrs, $8 million, ends in 2009)
Best Pitch: James Shields Change-Up
Best Player in a Contract Year: Carl Crawford (club option in 2010)
Top Prospect: David Price, SP
Best Individual Season: Carlos Pena, 2007 (.282, 46 HR, 121 RBI, .411 OBP, .627 SLG%, 1.038 OPS)
Worst Uniforms: 1998
Where’d They Come From?
- Trade, 7
- Draft, 6
- Free Agent, 2
- Amateur FA, 0
2009 OUTLOOK
3rd AL East, 3rd AL, 3rd MLB
First let me say that I love this team. I love how they built their team, I love the players on it, I love how they provide opposition to the Yankees/Red Sox juggernaut, and most of all, I love how they didn’t beat us in the World Series. OK, on to the outlook…
Can the 3rd best team in all of baseball really miss the playoffs? It might happen this year with the AL East. On paper, the Rays are just as talented as the Yankees and Red Sox, and younger to boot. However, I think that they fall short this year for 3 reasons. First is that they had a great deal of things come together at the right time last year, and it’s unlikely that will happen again. Second, they won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year, and teams will play up to their level, rather than down to where they think they are. And third, their bullpen is very suspect, and I think it could blow a couple games that end up being the difference. I think the Rays win 88-90 games this season and finish 3rd in the division. But, in 2010, with Longoria, Price, Upton, Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Crawford and potential call-ups SP Wade Davis, SS Reid Brignac and OF Desmond Jennings all in or around their primes, it’s going to take a pretty big regression for me not to pick them as the 2010 champs.
hard to see teams repeat sudden sucess like the rays had after finishing bottom rungs previous years. even with talent, i dont expect that rule to bend for them. good call pete.
The rays are definatly the real deal.. I’m not saying they are going to the world series next year but they are going to be in the race in the AL East this year
kenny-
A few observations:
1) Many thought it was a fluke when the Twins won the AL Central in 2002–then they did it again in 2003, 2004, and 2006. There is no reason the Rays can’t match this–but mainly I hope they do because f**k the Yanks and Sox.
2) If Carlos Pena is not the most underrated slugger in baseball, he is definitely in the top 3 or 4.
3) BJ Upton might join the 30/30 club… or beyond.
4) If there was anything flukey about this team, it was their bullpen. Like Pete, I do not put that much faith in Percival (a lock to get injured), Wheeler, or Balfour, but who knows.
Pete….What’s the verdict on the Burrell-Ibanez meter/gauge? No pressure, just wondering. If it’s unworkable (can’t find a good graphic, can’t settle on a usable metric, I’m the only one that really cares about it, etc…) don’t worry about it.
‘bski kidney donation’ countdown: 194 days
JJG….The Yankees’ checkered past, when it comes to signing big-time free agent pitchers, is minimizing my anxiety, for now.
bski, Understand your Spring Training ease of thought based on navy blue pinstripers’ mound-signings track record; just in case, the doctor has cleared his schedule. We’ll CC. Don’t let his rotator cuff ya; enjoy the season anyway the Yankee Dandy doodles.
Re #8: pre-op surgery: scalpel “anyway” into two words
David Price was sent to AAA yesterday.
bski-
I imagine they are doing what they did with Longoria last year and really just bringing him up later so they can have one extra year of arbitration with him. I think the Orioles will do the same with Wieters.
Yeah, it’s not always about winning, is it Pete? I read the “official” word about the move, that it’s about giving Price additional development time, from the Rays:
Technically, the Rays optioned left-hander David Price to Triple-A Durham on Wednesday. But essentially, they made a trade. The Rays figure they’d rather have Price be available to work important innings in August, September and (hopefully) October, and be improved from the additional development time, and they’re willing to do without him for April, maybe May and possibly longer to have it that way. Price, 23, knew the demotion was coming and considered it “part of the game,” but that didn’t make it any easier to take: “Right now it kind of stinks a little bit.”
Also, I read this in Conlin’s article yesterday:
I asked Charlie this the other day: “You’re chopping this roster down to the 25 you’re taking north. How much final say do you have on who stays and who goes?”
“No final say,” he replied. “I got to fight for who I want and I have to convince Ruben [Amaro Jr.] and our other major league personnel guys that my guy is the best guy. And you know that with the way the business side works nowadays, there are a lot of other considerations.”