explanation of rankings and other team previews here
2008 Record: 86-76
Offseason Additions: Matt Clement
Offseason Subtractions: A.J. Burnett
Ranks (MLB):
Line-Up – 24th
Rotation – 21st
Bullpen – 4th
Defense – 3rd tier (out of 5)
Baserunning – 5th tier (out of 5)
KEY PLAYER: VERNON WELLS
The Blue Jays opened their wallets and signed what they believed to be a true franchise player in Wells to a 7 year, $126 million dollar deal in 2007. He was absolutely horrendous the first year of that contract, hitting .245 with 16 HR and a .402 SLG%. Last year, he improved in nearly every category, but was unable to get back to his 2006 form. Wells just turned 30, and the Blue Jays have to be wondering whether or not he can revert to that form. They need him to, because in this pitching heavy division, the Blue Jays do not have a lot of offensive firepower outside of Wells and Rios. Wells needs to start earning his money if the Jays want to have a chance.
PLAYER TO WATCH: TRAVIS SNIDER
The 21-year old Snider is another offensive hope for the Blue Jays. Baseball Prospectus has him ranked as the 5th best prospect in baseball going into this season. He is a pure power hitter who will likely hit a bunch of HRs and 2Bs, and also strike out a good deal. Looking at his physique and minor league numbers, Travis Hafner comes to mind as a comparable player, but I’m no scout. Despite his high stature in the prospect world, how much can the Blue Jays really expect from Snider? If he’s good enough to play the whole season, maybe more than you think. Only 147 players have had more than 500 PA during the season in which they were 21 years old. Of those 147, 44 drove in more than 80 runs and 21 drove in more than 100. 84 of them hit over .275 and 41 hit over .300. These numbers all seem high to me, but I guess if you are playing the MLB at age 21, you must be pretty good to start. We’ll see how Snider does.
PHILLY ANGLE
After Pat Gillick, Part 2
I already looked at how the Mariners fared after Pat Gillick left, next up is the Blue Jays, and it’s not any prettier. Gillick was the GM of the Blue Jays from 1978-1994. They won 5 division titles and 2 World Series during his tenure. Since 1995, the Jays have gone 1,108-1,141, have hardly sniffed the playoffs, and only finished above 3rd in the division once, in 2006. Some of this can be attributed to the fact that the Red Sox and Yankees seriously ratcheted up their payrolls during this time period, putting the Blue Jays in a very difficult position to make the playoffs. Were they in another division, they may have made it in 1998, 2003 and 2006. Like in Philly, Gillick made many subtle moves (drafting George Bell and Dave Steib in the Rule 5 draft) and only a couple big ones (bringing in Paul Molitor and Roberto Alomar). Since he left, they have held their own, but lacked the crafty moves and big wallet to pass the Yanks and Sox.
QUICK HITS
Worst Contract: (7 yrs, $126 million, ends in 2014)
Best Pitch: Roy Halladay’s Curveball
Best Player in a Contract Year: Marco Scutaro
Top Prospect: Travis Snider, OF
Best Individual Season: Carlos Delgado, 2000 (.344 BA, 41 HR, 137 RBI, 57 2B, .470 OBP, .664 SLG%)
Worst Uniforms: 2000
Where’d They Come From?
- Draft, 10
- Free Agent, 3
- Trade, 2
- Amateur FA, 0
2009 OUTLOOK
4th AL East, th AL, th MLB
I think that this season might be the beginning of a big downward turn for the Blue Jays. They’ve been decent the last couple seasons, but most of their good players are on the downside of their careers and their minor league system is pretty weak. I think that around mid-season, they’ll be in the .500 area and perhaps start a firesale, starting with Roy Halladay. If they can get some good prospects in these deals, they might be able to turn it around quickly, if not, it might be a long stay at the bottom of the division with the Rays and the Orioles coming on with lots of young talent.
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The Vegas total for the Jays is 80.5. I think taking them for the UNDER is one of the BEST bets on the board. Last year, it appeared that they had a solid young pitching core in McGowan, Marcum, and Litsch, but none of them really lived up to expectations. I guess its pretty brutal when 3/4 of your division schedule is against the Yanks, BoSox, and Rays.